Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics : Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives

Frontmatter -- Contents -- List of Contributors -- Acknowledgments -- PART ONE: Counterfactual Inference: Form and Function -- 1. Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives -- 2. Causes and Counterfactuals in Social Science: Explorin...
Ausführliche Beschreibung

Frontmatter -- Contents -- List of Contributors -- Acknowledgments -- PART ONE: Counterfactual Inference: Form and Function -- 1. Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives -- 2. Causes and Counterfactuals in Social Science: Exploring an Analogy between Cellular Automata and Historical Processes -- PART TWO: Counterfactual Analysis of Particular Events -- 3. Counterfactual Reasoning in Western Studies of Soviet Politics and Foreign Relations -- 4. Confronting Hitler and Its Consequences -- 5. Back to the Past: Counterfactuals and the Cuban Missile Crisis -- 6. Counterfactual Reasoning in Motivational Analysis: U.S. Policy toward Iran -- PART THREE: Counterfactual Analysis of Classes of Events -- 7. Counterfactuals about War and Its Absence -- 8. Using Counterfactuals in Historical Analysis: Theories of Revolution -- PART FOUR: Counterfactuals and Game Theory -- 9. Counterfactuals and International Affairs: Some Insights from Game Theory -- 10. Off-the-Path Behavior: A Game-Theoretic Approach to Counterfactuals and Its Implications for Political and Historical Analysis -- PART FIVE: Computer and Mental Simulations of Possible Worlds -- 11. Rerunning History: Counterfactual Simulation in World Politics -- 12. Counterfactuals, Past and Future -- PART SIX: Commentaries -- 1. Conceptual Blending and Counterfactual Argument in the Social and Behavioral Sciences -- 2. Psychological Biases in Counterfactual Thought Experiments -- 3. Counterfactual Inferences as Instances of Statistical Inferences -- 4. Counterfactuals, Causation, and Complexity Ausführliche Beschreibung