Exploring SSP land-use dynamics using the IMAGE model: Regional and gridded scenarios of land-use change and land-based climate change mitigation

• The SSP scenarios show a wide spread in agricultural land-use change in 2010-2050: from a decrease of 305 Mha in SSP1 to an increase of 826 Mha in SSP3. • Key drivers are population, agricultural efficiency, consumption, land availability, food losses, and dietary preferences. • Most land-use chan...
Ausführliche Beschreibung

• The SSP scenarios show a wide spread in agricultural land-use change in 2010-2050: from a decrease of 305 Mha in SSP1 to an increase of 826 Mha in SSP3. • Key drivers are population, agricultural efficiency, consumption, land availability, food losses, and dietary preferences. • Most land-use change is projected in Sub-Saharan Africa up to 424 Mha in the period 2010–2100. • Negative emissions from bioenergy (with CCS) and reforestation are crucial to limit temperature increases to 1.5oC in 2100. • REDD (avoided deforestation) in Sub-Saharan Africa could have substantial trade-offs negatively affecting food security. Ausführliche Beschreibung