Should TPP be formed? : on the potential economic, governance, and conflict-reducing impacts of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement
The proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a free trade agreement among 12 Pacific Rim countries whose joint gross domestic products (GDPs) account for 36 percent of world GDP and whose mutual trade accounts for approximately 24 percent of world trade. As for most proposed free trade agreements...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Gespeichert in:
| Autor*in: |
Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
E-Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
September 2016 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: East Asian economic review - Sejong-si : [KIEP, Korean Institute for International Economic Policy], 2016, 20(2016), 3 vom: Sept., Seite 279-309 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:20 ; year:2016 ; number:3 ; month:09 ; pages:279-309 |
| Links: |
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| DOI / URN: |
10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2016.20.3.311 |
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100965036X |
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| 520 | |a The proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a free trade agreement among 12 Pacific Rim countries whose joint gross domestic products (GDPs) account for 36 percent of world GDP and whose mutual trade accounts for approximately 24 percent of world trade. As for most proposed free trade agreements (FTAs), trade economists have provided ex ante computable general equilibrium (CGE) estimates to predict the trade, employment, and real per capita income effects of this agreement, such as ITC (2016). This paper-intended to complement these studies-examines the potential impacts of TPP beyond such traditional CGE estimates, taking a broader economic, governance, and historical perspective. First, we contrast these traditional CGE trade and welfare estimates that treat all firms within an industry as homogeneous with more recent CGE analyses that allow firms' productivities to be heterogeneous. We show that the latter models' trade predictions are much more consistent with ex post empirical evidence of average trade effects of FTAs. Second, empirical evidence now strongly confirms the existence of FTA "contagion." We review this evidence and show that predictive models of the evolution of FTAs indicate that the TPP should be formed. With China now having formed 12 FTAs and negotiating five new ones (including a sixteen member Asia-Pacific FTA), the United States would likely face considerable trade diversion without the TPP. Third, we examine empirical evidence on the likely further economic growth implications of FTAs by reducing firms' uncertainty over trade relations and trade policies. Fourth, we examine empirical evidence on the additional impact of FTAs on consolidating democratic institutions in countries. The TPP would likely help consolidate some of the less mature democracies. Fifth, we examine empirical evidence on the reductions of conflicts (and enhanced peace) between countries owing to the formations of FTAs. We conclude the paper noting that the potential net benefits to member countries of the proposed TPP extend well beyond the real income gains to households based upon traditional CGE models. | ||
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10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2016.20.3.311 doi 11159/1475 hdl (DE-627)100965036X (DE-599)GBV100965036X DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng F1 F12 F13 F14 F15 jelc Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. verfasserin (DE-588)170029573 (DE-627)060040777 (DE-576)130944815 aut Should TPP be formed? on the potential economic, governance, and conflict-reducing impacts of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement Jeffrey H. Bergstrand September 2016 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier The proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a free trade agreement among 12 Pacific Rim countries whose joint gross domestic products (GDPs) account for 36 percent of world GDP and whose mutual trade accounts for approximately 24 percent of world trade. As for most proposed free trade agreements (FTAs), trade economists have provided ex ante computable general equilibrium (CGE) estimates to predict the trade, employment, and real per capita income effects of this agreement, such as ITC (2016). This paper-intended to complement these studies-examines the potential impacts of TPP beyond such traditional CGE estimates, taking a broader economic, governance, and historical perspective. First, we contrast these traditional CGE trade and welfare estimates that treat all firms within an industry as homogeneous with more recent CGE analyses that allow firms' productivities to be heterogeneous. We show that the latter models' trade predictions are much more consistent with ex post empirical evidence of average trade effects of FTAs. Second, empirical evidence now strongly confirms the existence of FTA "contagion." We review this evidence and show that predictive models of the evolution of FTAs indicate that the TPP should be formed. With China now having formed 12 FTAs and negotiating five new ones (including a sixteen member Asia-Pacific FTA), the United States would likely face considerable trade diversion without the TPP. Third, we examine empirical evidence on the likely further economic growth implications of FTAs by reducing firms' uncertainty over trade relations and trade policies. Fourth, we examine empirical evidence on the additional impact of FTAs on consolidating democratic institutions in countries. The TPP would likely help consolidate some of the less mature democracies. Fifth, we examine empirical evidence on the reductions of conflicts (and enhanced peace) between countries owing to the formations of FTAs. We conclude the paper noting that the potential net benefits to member countries of the proposed TPP extend well beyond the real income gains to households based upon traditional CGE models. Enthalten in East Asian economic review Sejong-si : [KIEP, Korean Institute for International Economic Policy], 2016 20(2016), 3 vom: Sept., Seite 279-309 Online-Ressource (DE-627)863610854 (DE-600)2862898-6 (DE-576)475121953 2508-1667 nnns volume:20 year:2016 number:3 month:09 pages:279-309 http://hdl.handle.net/11159/1475 Resolving-System kostenfrei Volltext http://dx.doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2016.20.3.311 Resolving-System kostenfrei Volltext http://www.eaerweb.org/download.jsp?filePath=/j_data/JE0001/2016/v20n3/&fileName=JE0001_2016_v20n3_279.pdf Verlag kostenfrei Volltext http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Verlag Terms of use 46 GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 20 2016 3 9 279-309 26 01 0206 173648723X x1k 22-12-17 26 00 DE-206 56 International Trade 26 00 DE-206 56 Economic Integration Agreements 26 00 DE-206 56 Gravity Equation 26 00 DE-206 56 Welfare |
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10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2016.20.3.311 doi 11159/1475 hdl (DE-627)100965036X (DE-599)GBV100965036X DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng F1 F12 F13 F14 F15 jelc Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. verfasserin (DE-588)170029573 (DE-627)060040777 (DE-576)130944815 aut Should TPP be formed? on the potential economic, governance, and conflict-reducing impacts of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement Jeffrey H. Bergstrand September 2016 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier The proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a free trade agreement among 12 Pacific Rim countries whose joint gross domestic products (GDPs) account for 36 percent of world GDP and whose mutual trade accounts for approximately 24 percent of world trade. As for most proposed free trade agreements (FTAs), trade economists have provided ex ante computable general equilibrium (CGE) estimates to predict the trade, employment, and real per capita income effects of this agreement, such as ITC (2016). This paper-intended to complement these studies-examines the potential impacts of TPP beyond such traditional CGE estimates, taking a broader economic, governance, and historical perspective. First, we contrast these traditional CGE trade and welfare estimates that treat all firms within an industry as homogeneous with more recent CGE analyses that allow firms' productivities to be heterogeneous. We show that the latter models' trade predictions are much more consistent with ex post empirical evidence of average trade effects of FTAs. Second, empirical evidence now strongly confirms the existence of FTA "contagion." We review this evidence and show that predictive models of the evolution of FTAs indicate that the TPP should be formed. With China now having formed 12 FTAs and negotiating five new ones (including a sixteen member Asia-Pacific FTA), the United States would likely face considerable trade diversion without the TPP. Third, we examine empirical evidence on the likely further economic growth implications of FTAs by reducing firms' uncertainty over trade relations and trade policies. Fourth, we examine empirical evidence on the additional impact of FTAs on consolidating democratic institutions in countries. The TPP would likely help consolidate some of the less mature democracies. Fifth, we examine empirical evidence on the reductions of conflicts (and enhanced peace) between countries owing to the formations of FTAs. We conclude the paper noting that the potential net benefits to member countries of the proposed TPP extend well beyond the real income gains to households based upon traditional CGE models. Enthalten in East Asian economic review Sejong-si : [KIEP, Korean Institute for International Economic Policy], 2016 20(2016), 3 vom: Sept., Seite 279-309 Online-Ressource (DE-627)863610854 (DE-600)2862898-6 (DE-576)475121953 2508-1667 nnns volume:20 year:2016 number:3 month:09 pages:279-309 http://hdl.handle.net/11159/1475 Resolving-System kostenfrei Volltext http://dx.doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2016.20.3.311 Resolving-System kostenfrei Volltext http://www.eaerweb.org/download.jsp?filePath=/j_data/JE0001/2016/v20n3/&fileName=JE0001_2016_v20n3_279.pdf Verlag kostenfrei Volltext http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Verlag Terms of use 46 GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 20 2016 3 9 279-309 26 01 0206 173648723X x1k 22-12-17 26 00 DE-206 56 International Trade 26 00 DE-206 56 Economic Integration Agreements 26 00 DE-206 56 Gravity Equation 26 00 DE-206 56 Welfare |
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10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2016.20.3.311 doi 11159/1475 hdl (DE-627)100965036X (DE-599)GBV100965036X DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng F1 F12 F13 F14 F15 jelc Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. verfasserin (DE-588)170029573 (DE-627)060040777 (DE-576)130944815 aut Should TPP be formed? on the potential economic, governance, and conflict-reducing impacts of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement Jeffrey H. Bergstrand September 2016 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier The proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a free trade agreement among 12 Pacific Rim countries whose joint gross domestic products (GDPs) account for 36 percent of world GDP and whose mutual trade accounts for approximately 24 percent of world trade. As for most proposed free trade agreements (FTAs), trade economists have provided ex ante computable general equilibrium (CGE) estimates to predict the trade, employment, and real per capita income effects of this agreement, such as ITC (2016). This paper-intended to complement these studies-examines the potential impacts of TPP beyond such traditional CGE estimates, taking a broader economic, governance, and historical perspective. First, we contrast these traditional CGE trade and welfare estimates that treat all firms within an industry as homogeneous with more recent CGE analyses that allow firms' productivities to be heterogeneous. We show that the latter models' trade predictions are much more consistent with ex post empirical evidence of average trade effects of FTAs. Second, empirical evidence now strongly confirms the existence of FTA "contagion." We review this evidence and show that predictive models of the evolution of FTAs indicate that the TPP should be formed. With China now having formed 12 FTAs and negotiating five new ones (including a sixteen member Asia-Pacific FTA), the United States would likely face considerable trade diversion without the TPP. Third, we examine empirical evidence on the likely further economic growth implications of FTAs by reducing firms' uncertainty over trade relations and trade policies. Fourth, we examine empirical evidence on the additional impact of FTAs on consolidating democratic institutions in countries. The TPP would likely help consolidate some of the less mature democracies. Fifth, we examine empirical evidence on the reductions of conflicts (and enhanced peace) between countries owing to the formations of FTAs. We conclude the paper noting that the potential net benefits to member countries of the proposed TPP extend well beyond the real income gains to households based upon traditional CGE models. Enthalten in East Asian economic review Sejong-si : [KIEP, Korean Institute for International Economic Policy], 2016 20(2016), 3 vom: Sept., Seite 279-309 Online-Ressource (DE-627)863610854 (DE-600)2862898-6 (DE-576)475121953 2508-1667 nnns volume:20 year:2016 number:3 month:09 pages:279-309 http://hdl.handle.net/11159/1475 Resolving-System kostenfrei Volltext http://dx.doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2016.20.3.311 Resolving-System kostenfrei Volltext http://www.eaerweb.org/download.jsp?filePath=/j_data/JE0001/2016/v20n3/&fileName=JE0001_2016_v20n3_279.pdf Verlag kostenfrei Volltext http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Verlag Terms of use 46 GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 20 2016 3 9 279-309 26 01 0206 173648723X x1k 22-12-17 26 00 DE-206 56 International Trade 26 00 DE-206 56 Economic Integration Agreements 26 00 DE-206 56 Gravity Equation 26 00 DE-206 56 Welfare |
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10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2016.20.3.311 doi 11159/1475 hdl (DE-627)100965036X (DE-599)GBV100965036X DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng F1 F12 F13 F14 F15 jelc Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. verfasserin (DE-588)170029573 (DE-627)060040777 (DE-576)130944815 aut Should TPP be formed? on the potential economic, governance, and conflict-reducing impacts of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement Jeffrey H. Bergstrand September 2016 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier The proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a free trade agreement among 12 Pacific Rim countries whose joint gross domestic products (GDPs) account for 36 percent of world GDP and whose mutual trade accounts for approximately 24 percent of world trade. As for most proposed free trade agreements (FTAs), trade economists have provided ex ante computable general equilibrium (CGE) estimates to predict the trade, employment, and real per capita income effects of this agreement, such as ITC (2016). This paper-intended to complement these studies-examines the potential impacts of TPP beyond such traditional CGE estimates, taking a broader economic, governance, and historical perspective. First, we contrast these traditional CGE trade and welfare estimates that treat all firms within an industry as homogeneous with more recent CGE analyses that allow firms' productivities to be heterogeneous. We show that the latter models' trade predictions are much more consistent with ex post empirical evidence of average trade effects of FTAs. Second, empirical evidence now strongly confirms the existence of FTA "contagion." We review this evidence and show that predictive models of the evolution of FTAs indicate that the TPP should be formed. With China now having formed 12 FTAs and negotiating five new ones (including a sixteen member Asia-Pacific FTA), the United States would likely face considerable trade diversion without the TPP. Third, we examine empirical evidence on the likely further economic growth implications of FTAs by reducing firms' uncertainty over trade relations and trade policies. Fourth, we examine empirical evidence on the additional impact of FTAs on consolidating democratic institutions in countries. The TPP would likely help consolidate some of the less mature democracies. Fifth, we examine empirical evidence on the reductions of conflicts (and enhanced peace) between countries owing to the formations of FTAs. We conclude the paper noting that the potential net benefits to member countries of the proposed TPP extend well beyond the real income gains to households based upon traditional CGE models. Enthalten in East Asian economic review Sejong-si : [KIEP, Korean Institute for International Economic Policy], 2016 20(2016), 3 vom: Sept., Seite 279-309 Online-Ressource (DE-627)863610854 (DE-600)2862898-6 (DE-576)475121953 2508-1667 nnns volume:20 year:2016 number:3 month:09 pages:279-309 http://hdl.handle.net/11159/1475 Resolving-System kostenfrei Volltext http://dx.doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2016.20.3.311 Resolving-System kostenfrei Volltext http://www.eaerweb.org/download.jsp?filePath=/j_data/JE0001/2016/v20n3/&fileName=JE0001_2016_v20n3_279.pdf Verlag kostenfrei Volltext http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Verlag Terms of use 46 GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 20 2016 3 9 279-309 26 01 0206 173648723X x1k 22-12-17 26 00 DE-206 56 International Trade 26 00 DE-206 56 Economic Integration Agreements 26 00 DE-206 56 Gravity Equation 26 00 DE-206 56 Welfare |
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Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. |
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on the potential economic, governance, and conflict-reducing impacts of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement |
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should tpp be formed?on the potential economic, governance, and conflict-reducing impacts of the trans-pacific partnership agreement |
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Should TPP be formed? on the potential economic, governance, and conflict-reducing impacts of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement |
| abstract |
The proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a free trade agreement among 12 Pacific Rim countries whose joint gross domestic products (GDPs) account for 36 percent of world GDP and whose mutual trade accounts for approximately 24 percent of world trade. As for most proposed free trade agreements (FTAs), trade economists have provided ex ante computable general equilibrium (CGE) estimates to predict the trade, employment, and real per capita income effects of this agreement, such as ITC (2016). This paper-intended to complement these studies-examines the potential impacts of TPP beyond such traditional CGE estimates, taking a broader economic, governance, and historical perspective. First, we contrast these traditional CGE trade and welfare estimates that treat all firms within an industry as homogeneous with more recent CGE analyses that allow firms' productivities to be heterogeneous. We show that the latter models' trade predictions are much more consistent with ex post empirical evidence of average trade effects of FTAs. Second, empirical evidence now strongly confirms the existence of FTA "contagion." We review this evidence and show that predictive models of the evolution of FTAs indicate that the TPP should be formed. With China now having formed 12 FTAs and negotiating five new ones (including a sixteen member Asia-Pacific FTA), the United States would likely face considerable trade diversion without the TPP. Third, we examine empirical evidence on the likely further economic growth implications of FTAs by reducing firms' uncertainty over trade relations and trade policies. Fourth, we examine empirical evidence on the additional impact of FTAs on consolidating democratic institutions in countries. The TPP would likely help consolidate some of the less mature democracies. Fifth, we examine empirical evidence on the reductions of conflicts (and enhanced peace) between countries owing to the formations of FTAs. We conclude the paper noting that the potential net benefits to member countries of the proposed TPP extend well beyond the real income gains to households based upon traditional CGE models. |
| abstractGer |
The proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a free trade agreement among 12 Pacific Rim countries whose joint gross domestic products (GDPs) account for 36 percent of world GDP and whose mutual trade accounts for approximately 24 percent of world trade. As for most proposed free trade agreements (FTAs), trade economists have provided ex ante computable general equilibrium (CGE) estimates to predict the trade, employment, and real per capita income effects of this agreement, such as ITC (2016). This paper-intended to complement these studies-examines the potential impacts of TPP beyond such traditional CGE estimates, taking a broader economic, governance, and historical perspective. First, we contrast these traditional CGE trade and welfare estimates that treat all firms within an industry as homogeneous with more recent CGE analyses that allow firms' productivities to be heterogeneous. We show that the latter models' trade predictions are much more consistent with ex post empirical evidence of average trade effects of FTAs. Second, empirical evidence now strongly confirms the existence of FTA "contagion." We review this evidence and show that predictive models of the evolution of FTAs indicate that the TPP should be formed. With China now having formed 12 FTAs and negotiating five new ones (including a sixteen member Asia-Pacific FTA), the United States would likely face considerable trade diversion without the TPP. Third, we examine empirical evidence on the likely further economic growth implications of FTAs by reducing firms' uncertainty over trade relations and trade policies. Fourth, we examine empirical evidence on the additional impact of FTAs on consolidating democratic institutions in countries. The TPP would likely help consolidate some of the less mature democracies. Fifth, we examine empirical evidence on the reductions of conflicts (and enhanced peace) between countries owing to the formations of FTAs. We conclude the paper noting that the potential net benefits to member countries of the proposed TPP extend well beyond the real income gains to households based upon traditional CGE models. |
| abstract_unstemmed |
The proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a free trade agreement among 12 Pacific Rim countries whose joint gross domestic products (GDPs) account for 36 percent of world GDP and whose mutual trade accounts for approximately 24 percent of world trade. As for most proposed free trade agreements (FTAs), trade economists have provided ex ante computable general equilibrium (CGE) estimates to predict the trade, employment, and real per capita income effects of this agreement, such as ITC (2016). This paper-intended to complement these studies-examines the potential impacts of TPP beyond such traditional CGE estimates, taking a broader economic, governance, and historical perspective. First, we contrast these traditional CGE trade and welfare estimates that treat all firms within an industry as homogeneous with more recent CGE analyses that allow firms' productivities to be heterogeneous. We show that the latter models' trade predictions are much more consistent with ex post empirical evidence of average trade effects of FTAs. Second, empirical evidence now strongly confirms the existence of FTA "contagion." We review this evidence and show that predictive models of the evolution of FTAs indicate that the TPP should be formed. With China now having formed 12 FTAs and negotiating five new ones (including a sixteen member Asia-Pacific FTA), the United States would likely face considerable trade diversion without the TPP. Third, we examine empirical evidence on the likely further economic growth implications of FTAs by reducing firms' uncertainty over trade relations and trade policies. Fourth, we examine empirical evidence on the additional impact of FTAs on consolidating democratic institutions in countries. The TPP would likely help consolidate some of the less mature democracies. Fifth, we examine empirical evidence on the reductions of conflicts (and enhanced peace) between countries owing to the formations of FTAs. We conclude the paper noting that the potential net benefits to member countries of the proposed TPP extend well beyond the real income gains to households based upon traditional CGE models. |
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Should TPP be formed? |
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