Modeling and forecasting spot oil price
The aim of this paper is to explore the reasons of oil price volatility. It analyses the information function of oil future market and investigates the relation between speculation and spot oil price in the short run. Furthermore, the paper constructs a model for long run equilibrium able to produce...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Gespeichert in:
| Autor*in: |
Ghalayini, Latife [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
E-Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
December 2017 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Eurasian business review - Cham : Springer International Publishing AG, 2011, 7(2017), 3 vom: Dez., Seite 355-373 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:7 ; year:2017 ; number:3 ; month:12 ; pages:355-373 |
| Links: |
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| DOI / URN: |
10.1007/s40821-016-0058-0 |
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| Katalog-ID: |
1017887802 |
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| 520 | |a The aim of this paper is to explore the reasons of oil price volatility. It analyses the information function of oil future market and investigates the relation between speculation and spot oil price in the short run. Furthermore, the paper constructs a model for long run equilibrium able to produce reliable and reasonable oil price forecasts. Findings prove that in the short run, changes in oil inventories Granger cause changes in oil price. In the long run however, findings prove that, the oil demand, the oil supply, the $/SDR exchange rate, the speculation in oil future market (New York Mercantile Exchange) and the oil inventories are associated in a long run relationship. | ||
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December 2017 |
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10.1007/s40821-016-0058-0 doi (DE-627)1017887802 (DE-599)GBV1017887802 (DE-He213)s40821-016-0058-0-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng Ghalayini, Latife verfasserin aut Modeling and forecasting spot oil price Latife Ghalayini December 2017 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier The aim of this paper is to explore the reasons of oil price volatility. It analyses the information function of oil future market and investigates the relation between speculation and spot oil price in the short run. Furthermore, the paper constructs a model for long run equilibrium able to produce reliable and reasonable oil price forecasts. Findings prove that in the short run, changes in oil inventories Granger cause changes in oil price. In the long run however, findings prove that, the oil demand, the oil supply, the $/SDR exchange rate, the speculation in oil future market (New York Mercantile Exchange) and the oil inventories are associated in a long run relationship. Enthalten in Eurasian business review Cham : Springer International Publishing AG, 2011 7(2017), 3 vom: Dez., Seite 355-373 Online-Ressource (DE-627)684128632 (DE-600)2646820-7 (DE-576)392090384 2147-4281 nnns volume:7 year:2017 number:3 month:12 pages:355-373 https://doi.org/10.1007/s40821-016-0058-0 Resolving-System lizenzpflichtig Volltext https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs40821-016-0058-0.pdf Verlag lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_184 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 zbwolc20180616 AR 7 2017 3 12 355-373 26 01 0206 176378634X x1z 06-04-18 26 00 DE-206 56 Oil supply 26 00 DE-206 56 Open interest 26 00 DE-206 56 Spot oil price 26 00 DE-206 56 Oil demand 26 00 DE-206 56 Exchange rate 26 00 DE-206 56 Future oil markets 26 00 DE-206 56 Oil inventories |
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10.1007/s40821-016-0058-0 doi (DE-627)1017887802 (DE-599)GBV1017887802 (DE-He213)s40821-016-0058-0-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng Ghalayini, Latife verfasserin aut Modeling and forecasting spot oil price Latife Ghalayini December 2017 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier The aim of this paper is to explore the reasons of oil price volatility. It analyses the information function of oil future market and investigates the relation between speculation and spot oil price in the short run. Furthermore, the paper constructs a model for long run equilibrium able to produce reliable and reasonable oil price forecasts. Findings prove that in the short run, changes in oil inventories Granger cause changes in oil price. In the long run however, findings prove that, the oil demand, the oil supply, the $/SDR exchange rate, the speculation in oil future market (New York Mercantile Exchange) and the oil inventories are associated in a long run relationship. Enthalten in Eurasian business review Cham : Springer International Publishing AG, 2011 7(2017), 3 vom: Dez., Seite 355-373 Online-Ressource (DE-627)684128632 (DE-600)2646820-7 (DE-576)392090384 2147-4281 nnns volume:7 year:2017 number:3 month:12 pages:355-373 https://doi.org/10.1007/s40821-016-0058-0 Resolving-System lizenzpflichtig Volltext https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs40821-016-0058-0.pdf Verlag lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_184 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 zbwolc20180616 AR 7 2017 3 12 355-373 26 01 0206 176378634X x1z 06-04-18 26 00 DE-206 56 Oil supply 26 00 DE-206 56 Open interest 26 00 DE-206 56 Spot oil price 26 00 DE-206 56 Oil demand 26 00 DE-206 56 Exchange rate 26 00 DE-206 56 Future oil markets 26 00 DE-206 56 Oil inventories |
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10.1007/s40821-016-0058-0 doi (DE-627)1017887802 (DE-599)GBV1017887802 (DE-He213)s40821-016-0058-0-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng Ghalayini, Latife verfasserin aut Modeling and forecasting spot oil price Latife Ghalayini December 2017 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier The aim of this paper is to explore the reasons of oil price volatility. It analyses the information function of oil future market and investigates the relation between speculation and spot oil price in the short run. Furthermore, the paper constructs a model for long run equilibrium able to produce reliable and reasonable oil price forecasts. Findings prove that in the short run, changes in oil inventories Granger cause changes in oil price. In the long run however, findings prove that, the oil demand, the oil supply, the $/SDR exchange rate, the speculation in oil future market (New York Mercantile Exchange) and the oil inventories are associated in a long run relationship. Enthalten in Eurasian business review Cham : Springer International Publishing AG, 2011 7(2017), 3 vom: Dez., Seite 355-373 Online-Ressource (DE-627)684128632 (DE-600)2646820-7 (DE-576)392090384 2147-4281 nnns volume:7 year:2017 number:3 month:12 pages:355-373 https://doi.org/10.1007/s40821-016-0058-0 Resolving-System lizenzpflichtig Volltext https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs40821-016-0058-0.pdf Verlag lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_184 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 zbwolc20180616 AR 7 2017 3 12 355-373 26 01 0206 176378634X x1z 06-04-18 26 00 DE-206 56 Oil supply 26 00 DE-206 56 Open interest 26 00 DE-206 56 Spot oil price 26 00 DE-206 56 Oil demand 26 00 DE-206 56 Exchange rate 26 00 DE-206 56 Future oil markets 26 00 DE-206 56 Oil inventories |
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Ghalayini, Latife |
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Ghalayini, Latife 26 Oil supply 26 Open interest 26 Spot oil price 26 Oil demand 26 Exchange rate 26 Future oil markets 26 Oil inventories Modeling and forecasting spot oil price |
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modeling and forecasting spot oil price |
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Modeling and forecasting spot oil price |
| abstract |
The aim of this paper is to explore the reasons of oil price volatility. It analyses the information function of oil future market and investigates the relation between speculation and spot oil price in the short run. Furthermore, the paper constructs a model for long run equilibrium able to produce reliable and reasonable oil price forecasts. Findings prove that in the short run, changes in oil inventories Granger cause changes in oil price. In the long run however, findings prove that, the oil demand, the oil supply, the $/SDR exchange rate, the speculation in oil future market (New York Mercantile Exchange) and the oil inventories are associated in a long run relationship. |
| abstractGer |
The aim of this paper is to explore the reasons of oil price volatility. It analyses the information function of oil future market and investigates the relation between speculation and spot oil price in the short run. Furthermore, the paper constructs a model for long run equilibrium able to produce reliable and reasonable oil price forecasts. Findings prove that in the short run, changes in oil inventories Granger cause changes in oil price. In the long run however, findings prove that, the oil demand, the oil supply, the $/SDR exchange rate, the speculation in oil future market (New York Mercantile Exchange) and the oil inventories are associated in a long run relationship. |
| abstract_unstemmed |
The aim of this paper is to explore the reasons of oil price volatility. It analyses the information function of oil future market and investigates the relation between speculation and spot oil price in the short run. Furthermore, the paper constructs a model for long run equilibrium able to produce reliable and reasonable oil price forecasts. Findings prove that in the short run, changes in oil inventories Granger cause changes in oil price. In the long run however, findings prove that, the oil demand, the oil supply, the $/SDR exchange rate, the speculation in oil future market (New York Mercantile Exchange) and the oil inventories are associated in a long run relationship. |
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3 |
| title_short |
Modeling and forecasting spot oil price |
| url |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40821-016-0058-0 https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs40821-016-0058-0.pdf |
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| doi_str |
10.1007/s40821-016-0058-0 |
| up_date |
2024-08-27T03:33:32.315Z |
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7.164542 |