The global economy and the euro area : so far trade disputes have had only limited effects on global growth

After a strong second quarter, the global upturn appears to remain intact, economic and political turmoils notwithstanding, especially in the United States and the euro area. Therefore, DIW Berlin is slightly raising its forecast for the global economy this year to 4.2 percent. Over the course of th...
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Autor*in:	Michelsen, Claus [verfasserIn] Baldi, Guido [verfasserIn] Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine [verfasserIn] Engerer, Hella - 1963- [verfasserIn] Gebauer, Stefan [verfasserIn] Rieth, Malte [verfasserIn]

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2018

Übergeordnetes Werk:	Enthalten in: DIW weekly report - Berlin : DIW, 2018, 8(2018), 36, Seite 330-333
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:8 ; year:2018 ; number:36 ; pages:330-333

Links:	Volltext Volltext Volltext

Katalog-ID:	1030889937

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allfields	10419/182114 hdl (DE-627)1030889937 (DE-599)GBV1030889937 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng E32 E66 F01 jelc Michelsen, Claus verfasserin (DE-588)1188904418 (DE-627)1667770764 aut The global economy and the euro area so far trade disputes have had only limited effects on global growth by Claus Michelsen, Guido Baldi, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Hella Engerer, Stefan Gebauer, and Malte Rieth 2018 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier After a strong second quarter, the global upturn appears to remain intact, economic and political turmoils notwithstanding, especially in the United States and the euro area. Therefore, DIW Berlin is slightly raising its forecast for the global economy this year to 4.2 percent. Over the course of the rest of the year, however, non-recurring effects are likely to disappear in the United States, causing growth to slow down somewhat. Thus, for the coming year, DIW Berlin is remaining with its forecast from early summer, which estimated growth of 3.9 percent. Due to the improving labor markets, private consumption continues to be the most important support of the upturn in the global economy. Monetary policy remains expansionary for the time being but this will gradually change. Uncertainties regarding US trade policy are a risk to global trade, which will likely dampen investment in the further course of the forecast period. Further risk factors are the economic policies of the new Italian government and the threat of a hard Brexit. The turbulence in Turkey, on the other hand, is unlikely to have a major impact. Baldi, Guido verfasserin (DE-588)1023754266 (DE-627)718311574 (DE-576)367383675 aut Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine verfasserin (DE-588)1216114471 (DE-627)1727306953 aut Engerer, Hella 1963- verfasserin (DE-588)118110462 (DE-627)079248942 (DE-576)291720056 aut Gebauer, Stefan verfasserin (DE-588)112809889X (DE-627)882380443 (DE-576)48568652X aut Rieth, Malte verfasserin aut Enthalten in DIW weekly report Berlin : DIW, 2018 8(2018), 36, Seite 330-333 (DE-627)1010924567 (DE-600)2916740-1 (DE-576)497197804 2568-7697 nnns volume:8 year:2018 number:36 pages:330-333 http://hdl.handle.net/10419/182114 Resolving-System kostenfrei Volltext https://www.diw.de/sixcms/detail.php?id=diw_01.c.597766.de Verlag kostenfrei Volltext https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.597745.de/dwr-18-36-2.pdf Verlag kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 GBV_ILN_2403 GBV_ILN_2403 ISIL_DE-LFER AR 8 2018 36 330-333 26 01 0206 1805013602 x1k 17-09-18 2403 01 DE-LFER 3479090338 00 --%%-- --%%-- n --%%-- l01 23-05-19 2403 01 DE-LFER https://www.diw.de/sixcms/detail.php?id=diw_01.c.597766.de 26 00 DE-206 56 Business cycle forecast 26 00 DE-206 56 economic outlook
spelling	10419/182114 hdl (DE-627)1030889937 (DE-599)GBV1030889937 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng E32 E66 F01 jelc Michelsen, Claus verfasserin (DE-588)1188904418 (DE-627)1667770764 aut The global economy and the euro area so far trade disputes have had only limited effects on global growth by Claus Michelsen, Guido Baldi, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Hella Engerer, Stefan Gebauer, and Malte Rieth 2018 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier After a strong second quarter, the global upturn appears to remain intact, economic and political turmoils notwithstanding, especially in the United States and the euro area. Therefore, DIW Berlin is slightly raising its forecast for the global economy this year to 4.2 percent. Over the course of the rest of the year, however, non-recurring effects are likely to disappear in the United States, causing growth to slow down somewhat. Thus, for the coming year, DIW Berlin is remaining with its forecast from early summer, which estimated growth of 3.9 percent. Due to the improving labor markets, private consumption continues to be the most important support of the upturn in the global economy. Monetary policy remains expansionary for the time being but this will gradually change. Uncertainties regarding US trade policy are a risk to global trade, which will likely dampen investment in the further course of the forecast period. Further risk factors are the economic policies of the new Italian government and the threat of a hard Brexit. The turbulence in Turkey, on the other hand, is unlikely to have a major impact. Baldi, Guido verfasserin (DE-588)1023754266 (DE-627)718311574 (DE-576)367383675 aut Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine verfasserin (DE-588)1216114471 (DE-627)1727306953 aut Engerer, Hella 1963- verfasserin (DE-588)118110462 (DE-627)079248942 (DE-576)291720056 aut Gebauer, Stefan verfasserin (DE-588)112809889X (DE-627)882380443 (DE-576)48568652X aut Rieth, Malte verfasserin aut Enthalten in DIW weekly report Berlin : DIW, 2018 8(2018), 36, Seite 330-333 (DE-627)1010924567 (DE-600)2916740-1 (DE-576)497197804 2568-7697 nnns volume:8 year:2018 number:36 pages:330-333 http://hdl.handle.net/10419/182114 Resolving-System kostenfrei Volltext https://www.diw.de/sixcms/detail.php?id=diw_01.c.597766.de Verlag kostenfrei Volltext https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.597745.de/dwr-18-36-2.pdf Verlag kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 GBV_ILN_2403 GBV_ILN_2403 ISIL_DE-LFER AR 8 2018 36 330-333 26 01 0206 1805013602 x1k 17-09-18 2403 01 DE-LFER 3479090338 00 --%%-- --%%-- n --%%-- l01 23-05-19 2403 01 DE-LFER https://www.diw.de/sixcms/detail.php?id=diw_01.c.597766.de 26 00 DE-206 56 Business cycle forecast 26 00 DE-206 56 economic outlook
allfields_unstemmed	10419/182114 hdl (DE-627)1030889937 (DE-599)GBV1030889937 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng E32 E66 F01 jelc Michelsen, Claus verfasserin (DE-588)1188904418 (DE-627)1667770764 aut The global economy and the euro area so far trade disputes have had only limited effects on global growth by Claus Michelsen, Guido Baldi, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Hella Engerer, Stefan Gebauer, and Malte Rieth 2018 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier After a strong second quarter, the global upturn appears to remain intact, economic and political turmoils notwithstanding, especially in the United States and the euro area. Therefore, DIW Berlin is slightly raising its forecast for the global economy this year to 4.2 percent. Over the course of the rest of the year, however, non-recurring effects are likely to disappear in the United States, causing growth to slow down somewhat. Thus, for the coming year, DIW Berlin is remaining with its forecast from early summer, which estimated growth of 3.9 percent. Due to the improving labor markets, private consumption continues to be the most important support of the upturn in the global economy. Monetary policy remains expansionary for the time being but this will gradually change. Uncertainties regarding US trade policy are a risk to global trade, which will likely dampen investment in the further course of the forecast period. Further risk factors are the economic policies of the new Italian government and the threat of a hard Brexit. The turbulence in Turkey, on the other hand, is unlikely to have a major impact. Baldi, Guido verfasserin (DE-588)1023754266 (DE-627)718311574 (DE-576)367383675 aut Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine verfasserin (DE-588)1216114471 (DE-627)1727306953 aut Engerer, Hella 1963- verfasserin (DE-588)118110462 (DE-627)079248942 (DE-576)291720056 aut Gebauer, Stefan verfasserin (DE-588)112809889X (DE-627)882380443 (DE-576)48568652X aut Rieth, Malte verfasserin aut Enthalten in DIW weekly report Berlin : DIW, 2018 8(2018), 36, Seite 330-333 (DE-627)1010924567 (DE-600)2916740-1 (DE-576)497197804 2568-7697 nnns volume:8 year:2018 number:36 pages:330-333 http://hdl.handle.net/10419/182114 Resolving-System kostenfrei Volltext https://www.diw.de/sixcms/detail.php?id=diw_01.c.597766.de Verlag kostenfrei Volltext https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.597745.de/dwr-18-36-2.pdf Verlag kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 GBV_ILN_2403 GBV_ILN_2403 ISIL_DE-LFER AR 8 2018 36 330-333 26 01 0206 1805013602 x1k 17-09-18 2403 01 DE-LFER 3479090338 00 --%%-- --%%-- n --%%-- l01 23-05-19 2403 01 DE-LFER https://www.diw.de/sixcms/detail.php?id=diw_01.c.597766.de 26 00 DE-206 56 Business cycle forecast 26 00 DE-206 56 economic outlook
allfieldsGer	10419/182114 hdl (DE-627)1030889937 (DE-599)GBV1030889937 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng E32 E66 F01 jelc Michelsen, Claus verfasserin (DE-588)1188904418 (DE-627)1667770764 aut The global economy and the euro area so far trade disputes have had only limited effects on global growth by Claus Michelsen, Guido Baldi, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Hella Engerer, Stefan Gebauer, and Malte Rieth 2018 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier After a strong second quarter, the global upturn appears to remain intact, economic and political turmoils notwithstanding, especially in the United States and the euro area. Therefore, DIW Berlin is slightly raising its forecast for the global economy this year to 4.2 percent. Over the course of the rest of the year, however, non-recurring effects are likely to disappear in the United States, causing growth to slow down somewhat. Thus, for the coming year, DIW Berlin is remaining with its forecast from early summer, which estimated growth of 3.9 percent. Due to the improving labor markets, private consumption continues to be the most important support of the upturn in the global economy. Monetary policy remains expansionary for the time being but this will gradually change. Uncertainties regarding US trade policy are a risk to global trade, which will likely dampen investment in the further course of the forecast period. Further risk factors are the economic policies of the new Italian government and the threat of a hard Brexit. The turbulence in Turkey, on the other hand, is unlikely to have a major impact. Baldi, Guido verfasserin (DE-588)1023754266 (DE-627)718311574 (DE-576)367383675 aut Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine verfasserin (DE-588)1216114471 (DE-627)1727306953 aut Engerer, Hella 1963- verfasserin (DE-588)118110462 (DE-627)079248942 (DE-576)291720056 aut Gebauer, Stefan verfasserin (DE-588)112809889X (DE-627)882380443 (DE-576)48568652X aut Rieth, Malte verfasserin aut Enthalten in DIW weekly report Berlin : DIW, 2018 8(2018), 36, Seite 330-333 (DE-627)1010924567 (DE-600)2916740-1 (DE-576)497197804 2568-7697 nnns volume:8 year:2018 number:36 pages:330-333 http://hdl.handle.net/10419/182114 Resolving-System kostenfrei Volltext https://www.diw.de/sixcms/detail.php?id=diw_01.c.597766.de Verlag kostenfrei Volltext https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.597745.de/dwr-18-36-2.pdf Verlag kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 GBV_ILN_2403 GBV_ILN_2403 ISIL_DE-LFER AR 8 2018 36 330-333 26 01 0206 1805013602 x1k 17-09-18 2403 01 DE-LFER 3479090338 00 --%%-- --%%-- n --%%-- l01 23-05-19 2403 01 DE-LFER https://www.diw.de/sixcms/detail.php?id=diw_01.c.597766.de 26 00 DE-206 56 Business cycle forecast 26 00 DE-206 56 economic outlook
allfieldsSound	10419/182114 hdl (DE-627)1030889937 (DE-599)GBV1030889937 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng E32 E66 F01 jelc Michelsen, Claus verfasserin (DE-588)1188904418 (DE-627)1667770764 aut The global economy and the euro area so far trade disputes have had only limited effects on global growth by Claus Michelsen, Guido Baldi, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Hella Engerer, Stefan Gebauer, and Malte Rieth 2018 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier After a strong second quarter, the global upturn appears to remain intact, economic and political turmoils notwithstanding, especially in the United States and the euro area. Therefore, DIW Berlin is slightly raising its forecast for the global economy this year to 4.2 percent. Over the course of the rest of the year, however, non-recurring effects are likely to disappear in the United States, causing growth to slow down somewhat. Thus, for the coming year, DIW Berlin is remaining with its forecast from early summer, which estimated growth of 3.9 percent. Due to the improving labor markets, private consumption continues to be the most important support of the upturn in the global economy. Monetary policy remains expansionary for the time being but this will gradually change. Uncertainties regarding US trade policy are a risk to global trade, which will likely dampen investment in the further course of the forecast period. Further risk factors are the economic policies of the new Italian government and the threat of a hard Brexit. The turbulence in Turkey, on the other hand, is unlikely to have a major impact. Baldi, Guido verfasserin (DE-588)1023754266 (DE-627)718311574 (DE-576)367383675 aut Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine verfasserin (DE-588)1216114471 (DE-627)1727306953 aut Engerer, Hella 1963- verfasserin (DE-588)118110462 (DE-627)079248942 (DE-576)291720056 aut Gebauer, Stefan verfasserin (DE-588)112809889X (DE-627)882380443 (DE-576)48568652X aut Rieth, Malte verfasserin aut Enthalten in DIW weekly report Berlin : DIW, 2018 8(2018), 36, Seite 330-333 (DE-627)1010924567 (DE-600)2916740-1 (DE-576)497197804 2568-7697 nnns volume:8 year:2018 number:36 pages:330-333 http://hdl.handle.net/10419/182114 Resolving-System kostenfrei Volltext https://www.diw.de/sixcms/detail.php?id=diw_01.c.597766.de Verlag kostenfrei Volltext https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.597745.de/dwr-18-36-2.pdf Verlag kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 GBV_ILN_2403 GBV_ILN_2403 ISIL_DE-LFER AR 8 2018 36 330-333 26 01 0206 1805013602 x1k 17-09-18 2403 01 DE-LFER 3479090338 00 --%%-- --%%-- n --%%-- l01 23-05-19 2403 01 DE-LFER https://www.diw.de/sixcms/detail.php?id=diw_01.c.597766.de 26 00 DE-206 56 Business cycle forecast 26 00 DE-206 56 economic outlook
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title_sort	global economy and the euro areaso far trade disputes have had only limited effects on global growth
title_auth	The global economy and the euro area so far trade disputes have had only limited effects on global growth
abstract	After a strong second quarter, the global upturn appears to remain intact, economic and political turmoils notwithstanding, especially in the United States and the euro area. Therefore, DIW Berlin is slightly raising its forecast for the global economy this year to 4.2 percent. Over the course of the rest of the year, however, non-recurring effects are likely to disappear in the United States, causing growth to slow down somewhat. Thus, for the coming year, DIW Berlin is remaining with its forecast from early summer, which estimated growth of 3.9 percent. Due to the improving labor markets, private consumption continues to be the most important support of the upturn in the global economy. Monetary policy remains expansionary for the time being but this will gradually change. Uncertainties regarding US trade policy are a risk to global trade, which will likely dampen investment in the further course of the forecast period. Further risk factors are the economic policies of the new Italian government and the threat of a hard Brexit. The turbulence in Turkey, on the other hand, is unlikely to have a major impact.
abstractGer	After a strong second quarter, the global upturn appears to remain intact, economic and political turmoils notwithstanding, especially in the United States and the euro area. Therefore, DIW Berlin is slightly raising its forecast for the global economy this year to 4.2 percent. Over the course of the rest of the year, however, non-recurring effects are likely to disappear in the United States, causing growth to slow down somewhat. Thus, for the coming year, DIW Berlin is remaining with its forecast from early summer, which estimated growth of 3.9 percent. Due to the improving labor markets, private consumption continues to be the most important support of the upturn in the global economy. Monetary policy remains expansionary for the time being but this will gradually change. Uncertainties regarding US trade policy are a risk to global trade, which will likely dampen investment in the further course of the forecast period. Further risk factors are the economic policies of the new Italian government and the threat of a hard Brexit. The turbulence in Turkey, on the other hand, is unlikely to have a major impact.
abstract_unstemmed	After a strong second quarter, the global upturn appears to remain intact, economic and political turmoils notwithstanding, especially in the United States and the euro area. Therefore, DIW Berlin is slightly raising its forecast for the global economy this year to 4.2 percent. Over the course of the rest of the year, however, non-recurring effects are likely to disappear in the United States, causing growth to slow down somewhat. Thus, for the coming year, DIW Berlin is remaining with its forecast from early summer, which estimated growth of 3.9 percent. Due to the improving labor markets, private consumption continues to be the most important support of the upturn in the global economy. Monetary policy remains expansionary for the time being but this will gradually change. Uncertainties regarding US trade policy are a risk to global trade, which will likely dampen investment in the further course of the forecast period. Further risk factors are the economic policies of the new Italian government and the threat of a hard Brexit. The turbulence in Turkey, on the other hand, is unlikely to have a major impact.
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The global economy and the euro area : so far trade disputes have had only limited effects on global growth

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