The markets of green cars of three countries : analysis using Lotka-Volterra and Bertalanffy-Pütter models

Did the diesel scandal of 2015 affect the market for cars? We consider this question in relation to Germany, Austria, and Switzerland. Starting with historical registration data of cars with different drivetrain technologies, we considered each technology in isolation and fitted a five-parameter Ber...
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Autor*in:	Ziegler, Annika Maria [verfasserIn] Brunner, Norbert [verfasserIn] Kühleitner, Manfred [verfasserIn]

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2020

Rechteinformationen:	Open Access Namensnennung 4.0 International ; CC BY 4.0

Übergeordnetes Werk:	Enthalten in: Journal of open innovation - Basel : MDPI, 2015, 6(2020), 3/67 vom: Sept., Seite 1-19
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:6 ; year:2020 ; number:3/67 ; month:09 ; pages:1-19

Links:	Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Link aufrufen

DOI / URN:	10.3390/joitmc6030067

Katalog-ID:	1728114004

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allfields	10.3390/joitmc6030067 doi 10419/241453 hdl (DE-627)1728114004 (DE-599)KXP1728114004 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng Ziegler, Annika Maria verfasserin aut The markets of green cars of three countries analysis using Lotka-Volterra and Bertalanffy-Pütter models Annika Maria Ziegler, Norbert Brunner and Manfred Kühleitner 2020 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier DE-206 Open Access Controlled Vocabulary for Access Rights http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 Did the diesel scandal of 2015 affect the market for cars? We consider this question in relation to Germany, Austria, and Switzerland. Starting with historical registration data of cars with different drivetrain technologies, we considered each technology in isolation and fitted a five-parameter Bertalanffy-Pütter (BP) growth model to the stocks of cars. We used this model as it generalizes several well-known three-parameter models, which are distinguished by their exponent pair, e.g., Brody model BP (0, 1), West model BP (0.75, 1), and logistic growth BP (1, 2). We then used these models to derive a Lotka-Volterra (LV) model for the co-evolution of the (annual) market shares of the different drivetrain technologies. We augmented this model by a consideration of model uncertainty and found that initially all technologies were in a state of competition, except for Austria, which changed in 2015 to a predator-prey situation with diesel as the sole prey. This analysis of model uncertainty compared the best-fitting growth curve with the growth trajectories of other likely (Akaike weight 5% or higher) models of BP type. We conclude with remarks about open innovation. DE-206 Namensnennung 4.0 International CC BY 4.0 cc https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Brunner, Norbert verfasserin (DE-588)135937159 (DE-627)573387257 (DE-576)300731906 aut Kühleitner, Manfred verfasserin aut Enthalten in Journal of open innovation Basel : MDPI, 2015 6(2020), 3/67 vom: Sept., Seite 1-19 Online-Ressource (DE-627)833526413 (DE-600)2832108-X (DE-576)444393463 2199-8531 nnns volume:6 year:2020 number:3/67 month:09 pages:1-19 https://www.mdpi.com/2199-8531/6/3/67/pdf Verlag kostenfrei https://doi.org/10.3390/joitmc6030067 Resolving-System kostenfrei http://hdl.handle.net/10419/241453 Resolving-System kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 GBV_ILN_2403 GBV_ILN_2403 ISIL_DE-LFER AR 6 2020 3/67 9 1-19 26 01 0206 3744931803 x1z 01-09-20 2403 01 DE-LFER 3758599199 00 --%%-- --%%-- n --%%-- l01 18-09-20 2403 01 DE-LFER https://doi.org/10.3390/joitmc6030067 2403 01 DE-LFER https://www.mdpi.com/2199-8531/6/3/67/pdf 26 00 DE-206 56 Akaike information criterion (AIC) 26 00 DE-206 56 Bertalanffy–Pütter (BP) differential equation 26 00 DE-206 56 dynamic competition 26 00 DE-206 56 growth model 26 00 DE-206 56 Lotka–Volterra (LV) differential equation 26 00 DE-206 56 simulated annealing
spelling	10.3390/joitmc6030067 doi 10419/241453 hdl (DE-627)1728114004 (DE-599)KXP1728114004 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng Ziegler, Annika Maria verfasserin aut The markets of green cars of three countries analysis using Lotka-Volterra and Bertalanffy-Pütter models Annika Maria Ziegler, Norbert Brunner and Manfred Kühleitner 2020 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier DE-206 Open Access Controlled Vocabulary for Access Rights http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 Did the diesel scandal of 2015 affect the market for cars? We consider this question in relation to Germany, Austria, and Switzerland. Starting with historical registration data of cars with different drivetrain technologies, we considered each technology in isolation and fitted a five-parameter Bertalanffy-Pütter (BP) growth model to the stocks of cars. We used this model as it generalizes several well-known three-parameter models, which are distinguished by their exponent pair, e.g., Brody model BP (0, 1), West model BP (0.75, 1), and logistic growth BP (1, 2). We then used these models to derive a Lotka-Volterra (LV) model for the co-evolution of the (annual) market shares of the different drivetrain technologies. We augmented this model by a consideration of model uncertainty and found that initially all technologies were in a state of competition, except for Austria, which changed in 2015 to a predator-prey situation with diesel as the sole prey. This analysis of model uncertainty compared the best-fitting growth curve with the growth trajectories of other likely (Akaike weight 5% or higher) models of BP type. We conclude with remarks about open innovation. DE-206 Namensnennung 4.0 International CC BY 4.0 cc https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Brunner, Norbert verfasserin (DE-588)135937159 (DE-627)573387257 (DE-576)300731906 aut Kühleitner, Manfred verfasserin aut Enthalten in Journal of open innovation Basel : MDPI, 2015 6(2020), 3/67 vom: Sept., Seite 1-19 Online-Ressource (DE-627)833526413 (DE-600)2832108-X (DE-576)444393463 2199-8531 nnns volume:6 year:2020 number:3/67 month:09 pages:1-19 https://www.mdpi.com/2199-8531/6/3/67/pdf Verlag kostenfrei https://doi.org/10.3390/joitmc6030067 Resolving-System kostenfrei http://hdl.handle.net/10419/241453 Resolving-System kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 GBV_ILN_2403 GBV_ILN_2403 ISIL_DE-LFER AR 6 2020 3/67 9 1-19 26 01 0206 3744931803 x1z 01-09-20 2403 01 DE-LFER 3758599199 00 --%%-- --%%-- n --%%-- l01 18-09-20 2403 01 DE-LFER https://doi.org/10.3390/joitmc6030067 2403 01 DE-LFER https://www.mdpi.com/2199-8531/6/3/67/pdf 26 00 DE-206 56 Akaike information criterion (AIC) 26 00 DE-206 56 Bertalanffy–Pütter (BP) differential equation 26 00 DE-206 56 dynamic competition 26 00 DE-206 56 growth model 26 00 DE-206 56 Lotka–Volterra (LV) differential equation 26 00 DE-206 56 simulated annealing
allfields_unstemmed	10.3390/joitmc6030067 doi 10419/241453 hdl (DE-627)1728114004 (DE-599)KXP1728114004 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng Ziegler, Annika Maria verfasserin aut The markets of green cars of three countries analysis using Lotka-Volterra and Bertalanffy-Pütter models Annika Maria Ziegler, Norbert Brunner and Manfred Kühleitner 2020 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier DE-206 Open Access Controlled Vocabulary for Access Rights http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 Did the diesel scandal of 2015 affect the market for cars? We consider this question in relation to Germany, Austria, and Switzerland. Starting with historical registration data of cars with different drivetrain technologies, we considered each technology in isolation and fitted a five-parameter Bertalanffy-Pütter (BP) growth model to the stocks of cars. We used this model as it generalizes several well-known three-parameter models, which are distinguished by their exponent pair, e.g., Brody model BP (0, 1), West model BP (0.75, 1), and logistic growth BP (1, 2). We then used these models to derive a Lotka-Volterra (LV) model for the co-evolution of the (annual) market shares of the different drivetrain technologies. We augmented this model by a consideration of model uncertainty and found that initially all technologies were in a state of competition, except for Austria, which changed in 2015 to a predator-prey situation with diesel as the sole prey. This analysis of model uncertainty compared the best-fitting growth curve with the growth trajectories of other likely (Akaike weight 5% or higher) models of BP type. We conclude with remarks about open innovation. DE-206 Namensnennung 4.0 International CC BY 4.0 cc https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Brunner, Norbert verfasserin (DE-588)135937159 (DE-627)573387257 (DE-576)300731906 aut Kühleitner, Manfred verfasserin aut Enthalten in Journal of open innovation Basel : MDPI, 2015 6(2020), 3/67 vom: Sept., Seite 1-19 Online-Ressource (DE-627)833526413 (DE-600)2832108-X (DE-576)444393463 2199-8531 nnns volume:6 year:2020 number:3/67 month:09 pages:1-19 https://www.mdpi.com/2199-8531/6/3/67/pdf Verlag kostenfrei https://doi.org/10.3390/joitmc6030067 Resolving-System kostenfrei http://hdl.handle.net/10419/241453 Resolving-System kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 GBV_ILN_2403 GBV_ILN_2403 ISIL_DE-LFER AR 6 2020 3/67 9 1-19 26 01 0206 3744931803 x1z 01-09-20 2403 01 DE-LFER 3758599199 00 --%%-- --%%-- n --%%-- l01 18-09-20 2403 01 DE-LFER https://doi.org/10.3390/joitmc6030067 2403 01 DE-LFER https://www.mdpi.com/2199-8531/6/3/67/pdf 26 00 DE-206 56 Akaike information criterion (AIC) 26 00 DE-206 56 Bertalanffy–Pütter (BP) differential equation 26 00 DE-206 56 dynamic competition 26 00 DE-206 56 growth model 26 00 DE-206 56 Lotka–Volterra (LV) differential equation 26 00 DE-206 56 simulated annealing
allfieldsGer	10.3390/joitmc6030067 doi 10419/241453 hdl (DE-627)1728114004 (DE-599)KXP1728114004 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng Ziegler, Annika Maria verfasserin aut The markets of green cars of three countries analysis using Lotka-Volterra and Bertalanffy-Pütter models Annika Maria Ziegler, Norbert Brunner and Manfred Kühleitner 2020 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier DE-206 Open Access Controlled Vocabulary for Access Rights http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 Did the diesel scandal of 2015 affect the market for cars? We consider this question in relation to Germany, Austria, and Switzerland. Starting with historical registration data of cars with different drivetrain technologies, we considered each technology in isolation and fitted a five-parameter Bertalanffy-Pütter (BP) growth model to the stocks of cars. We used this model as it generalizes several well-known three-parameter models, which are distinguished by their exponent pair, e.g., Brody model BP (0, 1), West model BP (0.75, 1), and logistic growth BP (1, 2). We then used these models to derive a Lotka-Volterra (LV) model for the co-evolution of the (annual) market shares of the different drivetrain technologies. We augmented this model by a consideration of model uncertainty and found that initially all technologies were in a state of competition, except for Austria, which changed in 2015 to a predator-prey situation with diesel as the sole prey. This analysis of model uncertainty compared the best-fitting growth curve with the growth trajectories of other likely (Akaike weight 5% or higher) models of BP type. We conclude with remarks about open innovation. DE-206 Namensnennung 4.0 International CC BY 4.0 cc https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Brunner, Norbert verfasserin (DE-588)135937159 (DE-627)573387257 (DE-576)300731906 aut Kühleitner, Manfred verfasserin aut Enthalten in Journal of open innovation Basel : MDPI, 2015 6(2020), 3/67 vom: Sept., Seite 1-19 Online-Ressource (DE-627)833526413 (DE-600)2832108-X (DE-576)444393463 2199-8531 nnns volume:6 year:2020 number:3/67 month:09 pages:1-19 https://www.mdpi.com/2199-8531/6/3/67/pdf Verlag kostenfrei https://doi.org/10.3390/joitmc6030067 Resolving-System kostenfrei http://hdl.handle.net/10419/241453 Resolving-System kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 GBV_ILN_2403 GBV_ILN_2403 ISIL_DE-LFER AR 6 2020 3/67 9 1-19 26 01 0206 3744931803 x1z 01-09-20 2403 01 DE-LFER 3758599199 00 --%%-- --%%-- n --%%-- l01 18-09-20 2403 01 DE-LFER https://doi.org/10.3390/joitmc6030067 2403 01 DE-LFER https://www.mdpi.com/2199-8531/6/3/67/pdf 26 00 DE-206 56 Akaike information criterion (AIC) 26 00 DE-206 56 Bertalanffy–Pütter (BP) differential equation 26 00 DE-206 56 dynamic competition 26 00 DE-206 56 growth model 26 00 DE-206 56 Lotka–Volterra (LV) differential equation 26 00 DE-206 56 simulated annealing
allfieldsSound	10.3390/joitmc6030067 doi 10419/241453 hdl (DE-627)1728114004 (DE-599)KXP1728114004 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng Ziegler, Annika Maria verfasserin aut The markets of green cars of three countries analysis using Lotka-Volterra and Bertalanffy-Pütter models Annika Maria Ziegler, Norbert Brunner and Manfred Kühleitner 2020 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier DE-206 Open Access Controlled Vocabulary for Access Rights http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 Did the diesel scandal of 2015 affect the market for cars? We consider this question in relation to Germany, Austria, and Switzerland. Starting with historical registration data of cars with different drivetrain technologies, we considered each technology in isolation and fitted a five-parameter Bertalanffy-Pütter (BP) growth model to the stocks of cars. We used this model as it generalizes several well-known three-parameter models, which are distinguished by their exponent pair, e.g., Brody model BP (0, 1), West model BP (0.75, 1), and logistic growth BP (1, 2). We then used these models to derive a Lotka-Volterra (LV) model for the co-evolution of the (annual) market shares of the different drivetrain technologies. We augmented this model by a consideration of model uncertainty and found that initially all technologies were in a state of competition, except for Austria, which changed in 2015 to a predator-prey situation with diesel as the sole prey. This analysis of model uncertainty compared the best-fitting growth curve with the growth trajectories of other likely (Akaike weight 5% or higher) models of BP type. We conclude with remarks about open innovation. DE-206 Namensnennung 4.0 International CC BY 4.0 cc https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Brunner, Norbert verfasserin (DE-588)135937159 (DE-627)573387257 (DE-576)300731906 aut Kühleitner, Manfred verfasserin aut Enthalten in Journal of open innovation Basel : MDPI, 2015 6(2020), 3/67 vom: Sept., Seite 1-19 Online-Ressource (DE-627)833526413 (DE-600)2832108-X (DE-576)444393463 2199-8531 nnns volume:6 year:2020 number:3/67 month:09 pages:1-19 https://www.mdpi.com/2199-8531/6/3/67/pdf Verlag kostenfrei https://doi.org/10.3390/joitmc6030067 Resolving-System kostenfrei http://hdl.handle.net/10419/241453 Resolving-System kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 GBV_ILN_2403 GBV_ILN_2403 ISIL_DE-LFER AR 6 2020 3/67 9 1-19 26 01 0206 3744931803 x1z 01-09-20 2403 01 DE-LFER 3758599199 00 --%%-- --%%-- n --%%-- l01 18-09-20 2403 01 DE-LFER https://doi.org/10.3390/joitmc6030067 2403 01 DE-LFER https://www.mdpi.com/2199-8531/6/3/67/pdf 26 00 DE-206 56 Akaike information criterion (AIC) 26 00 DE-206 56 Bertalanffy–Pütter (BP) differential equation 26 00 DE-206 56 dynamic competition 26 00 DE-206 56 growth model 26 00 DE-206 56 Lotka–Volterra (LV) differential equation 26 00 DE-206 56 simulated annealing
language	English
source	Enthalten in Journal of open innovation 6(2020), 3/67 vom: Sept., Seite 1-19 volume:6 year:2020 number:3/67 month:09 pages:1-19
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We consider this question in relation to Germany, Austria, and Switzerland. Starting with historical registration data of cars with different drivetrain technologies, we considered each technology in isolation and fitted a five-parameter Bertalanffy-Pütter (BP) growth model to the stocks of cars. We used this model as it generalizes several well-known three-parameter models, which are distinguished by their exponent pair, e.g., Brody model BP (0, 1), West model BP (0.75, 1), and logistic growth BP (1, 2). We then used these models to derive a Lotka-Volterra (LV) model for the co-evolution of the (annual) market shares of the different drivetrain technologies. We augmented this model by a consideration of model uncertainty and found that initially all technologies were in a state of competition, except for Austria, which changed in 2015 to a predator-prey situation with diesel as the sole prey. This analysis of model uncertainty compared the best-fitting growth curve with the growth trajectories of other likely (Akaike weight 5% or higher) models of BP type. 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spellingShingle	Ziegler, Annika Maria 26 Akaike information criterion (AIC) 26 Bertalanffy–Pütter (BP) differential equation 26 dynamic competition 26 growth model 26 Lotka–Volterra (LV) differential equation 26 simulated annealing The markets of green cars of three countries analysis using Lotka-Volterra and Bertalanffy-Pütter models
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topic	26 Akaike information criterion (AIC) 26 Bertalanffy–Pütter (BP) differential equation 26 dynamic competition 26 growth model 26 Lotka–Volterra (LV) differential equation 26 simulated annealing
topic_unstemmed	26 Akaike information criterion (AIC) 26 Bertalanffy–Pütter (BP) differential equation 26 dynamic competition 26 growth model 26 Lotka–Volterra (LV) differential equation 26 simulated annealing
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title	The markets of green cars of three countries analysis using Lotka-Volterra and Bertalanffy-Pütter models
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title_full	The markets of green cars of three countries analysis using Lotka-Volterra and Bertalanffy-Pütter models Annika Maria Ziegler, Norbert Brunner and Manfred Kühleitner
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title_sub	analysis using Lotka-Volterra and Bertalanffy-Pütter models
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title_sort	markets of green cars of three countriesanalysis using lotka-volterra and bertalanffy-pütter models
title_auth	The markets of green cars of three countries analysis using Lotka-Volterra and Bertalanffy-Pütter models
abstract	Did the diesel scandal of 2015 affect the market for cars? We consider this question in relation to Germany, Austria, and Switzerland. Starting with historical registration data of cars with different drivetrain technologies, we considered each technology in isolation and fitted a five-parameter Bertalanffy-Pütter (BP) growth model to the stocks of cars. We used this model as it generalizes several well-known three-parameter models, which are distinguished by their exponent pair, e.g., Brody model BP (0, 1), West model BP (0.75, 1), and logistic growth BP (1, 2). We then used these models to derive a Lotka-Volterra (LV) model for the co-evolution of the (annual) market shares of the different drivetrain technologies. We augmented this model by a consideration of model uncertainty and found that initially all technologies were in a state of competition, except for Austria, which changed in 2015 to a predator-prey situation with diesel as the sole prey. This analysis of model uncertainty compared the best-fitting growth curve with the growth trajectories of other likely (Akaike weight 5% or higher) models of BP type. We conclude with remarks about open innovation.
abstractGer	Did the diesel scandal of 2015 affect the market for cars? We consider this question in relation to Germany, Austria, and Switzerland. Starting with historical registration data of cars with different drivetrain technologies, we considered each technology in isolation and fitted a five-parameter Bertalanffy-Pütter (BP) growth model to the stocks of cars. We used this model as it generalizes several well-known three-parameter models, which are distinguished by their exponent pair, e.g., Brody model BP (0, 1), West model BP (0.75, 1), and logistic growth BP (1, 2). We then used these models to derive a Lotka-Volterra (LV) model for the co-evolution of the (annual) market shares of the different drivetrain technologies. We augmented this model by a consideration of model uncertainty and found that initially all technologies were in a state of competition, except for Austria, which changed in 2015 to a predator-prey situation with diesel as the sole prey. This analysis of model uncertainty compared the best-fitting growth curve with the growth trajectories of other likely (Akaike weight 5% or higher) models of BP type. We conclude with remarks about open innovation.
abstract_unstemmed	Did the diesel scandal of 2015 affect the market for cars? We consider this question in relation to Germany, Austria, and Switzerland. Starting with historical registration data of cars with different drivetrain technologies, we considered each technology in isolation and fitted a five-parameter Bertalanffy-Pütter (BP) growth model to the stocks of cars. We used this model as it generalizes several well-known three-parameter models, which are distinguished by their exponent pair, e.g., Brody model BP (0, 1), West model BP (0.75, 1), and logistic growth BP (1, 2). We then used these models to derive a Lotka-Volterra (LV) model for the co-evolution of the (annual) market shares of the different drivetrain technologies. We augmented this model by a consideration of model uncertainty and found that initially all technologies were in a state of competition, except for Austria, which changed in 2015 to a predator-prey situation with diesel as the sole prey. This analysis of model uncertainty compared the best-fitting growth curve with the growth trajectories of other likely (Akaike weight 5% or higher) models of BP type. We conclude with remarks about open innovation.
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container_issue	3/67
title_short	The markets of green cars of three countries
url	https://www.mdpi.com/2199-8531/6/3/67/pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/joitmc6030067 http://hdl.handle.net/10419/241453
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author2	Brunner, Norbert Kühleitner, Manfred
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doi_str	10.3390/joitmc6030067
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up_date	2024-07-05T02:03:56.824Z
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The markets of green cars of three countries : analysis using Lotka-Volterra and Bertalanffy-Pütter models

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