The evidence for free trade and its background assumptions : how well-established causal generalisations can be useless for policy

Gespeichert in:

Autor*in:	Mireles-Flores, Luis [verfasserIn]

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2022

Schlagwörter:	causal inference Economic methodology empirical evidence free trade policy relevance science-policy interactions

Übergeordnetes Werk:	Enthalten in: Review of political economy - Abingdon : Carfax, 1989, 34(2022), 3, Seite 534-563
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:34 ; year:2022 ; number:3 ; pages:534-563

Links:	Link aufrufen Link aufrufen

DOI / URN:	10.1080/09538259.2021.1912484

Katalog-ID:	180946675X

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allfields	10.1080/09538259.2021.1912484 doi (DE-627)180946675X (DE-599)KXP180946675X DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng Mireles-Flores, Luis verfasserin (DE-588)1050939905 (DE-627)785304576 (DE-576)405391218 aut The evidence for free trade and its background assumptions how well-established causal generalisations can be useless for policy Luis Mireles-Flores 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier causal inference (dpeaa)DE-206 Economic methodology (dpeaa)DE-206 empirical evidence (dpeaa)DE-206 free trade (dpeaa)DE-206 policy relevance (dpeaa)DE-206 science-policy interactions (dpeaa)DE-206 Enthalten in Review of political economy Abingdon : Carfax, 1989 34(2022), 3, Seite 534-563 Online-Ressource (DE-627)270128883 (DE-600)1476640-1 (DE-576)263252965 1465-3982 nnns volume:34 year:2022 number:3 pages:534-563 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/09538259.2021.1912484 Verlag kostenfrei https://doi.org/10.1080/09538259.2021.1912484 Resolving-System kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_647 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 GBV_ILN_2403 GBV_ILN_2403 ISIL_DE-LFER AR 34 2022 3 534-563 26 01 0206 4162653593 x1z 08-07-22 2403 01 DE-LFER 419057760X 00 --%%-- --%%-- n --%%-- l01 21-09-22 2403 01 DE-LFER https://doi.org/10.1080/09538259.2021.1912484 2403 01 DE-LFER https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/09538259.2021.1912484 26 00 DE-206 In this article, I offer a methodological analysis of the empirical research on the causal effects of trade liberalisation, and assess whether such studies can be of any use for guiding policy prescriptions in real-world economies. The analysis focuses on the mainstream economic research that has been used to support arguments in favour of trade liberalisation during the last decades. Even though there are empirical results that could be taken as valid evidence for a causal connection between free trade and economic gains, none of the existing evidence licences trustworthy inferences about the policy effectiveness of trade liberalisation reforms in real-world cases. There are three aspects of the empirical literature that make it highly problematic for making reliable policy inferences: (a) the criteria used to define the notion of 'free trade', (b) the background assumptions embedded in the econometric techniques used for estimating causal effects, and (c) the widespread desire among academic economists to attain scientific results in terms of universally valid generalisations. The analysis exposes a worrisome mismatch between, on the one hand, the research aims and outcomes of scientific economics and, on the other, the kind of evidence that would be useful for guiding actual policy deliberations.
spelling	10.1080/09538259.2021.1912484 doi (DE-627)180946675X (DE-599)KXP180946675X DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng Mireles-Flores, Luis verfasserin (DE-588)1050939905 (DE-627)785304576 (DE-576)405391218 aut The evidence for free trade and its background assumptions how well-established causal generalisations can be useless for policy Luis Mireles-Flores 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier causal inference (dpeaa)DE-206 Economic methodology (dpeaa)DE-206 empirical evidence (dpeaa)DE-206 free trade (dpeaa)DE-206 policy relevance (dpeaa)DE-206 science-policy interactions (dpeaa)DE-206 Enthalten in Review of political economy Abingdon : Carfax, 1989 34(2022), 3, Seite 534-563 Online-Ressource (DE-627)270128883 (DE-600)1476640-1 (DE-576)263252965 1465-3982 nnns volume:34 year:2022 number:3 pages:534-563 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/09538259.2021.1912484 Verlag kostenfrei https://doi.org/10.1080/09538259.2021.1912484 Resolving-System kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_647 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 GBV_ILN_2403 GBV_ILN_2403 ISIL_DE-LFER AR 34 2022 3 534-563 26 01 0206 4162653593 x1z 08-07-22 2403 01 DE-LFER 419057760X 00 --%%-- --%%-- n --%%-- l01 21-09-22 2403 01 DE-LFER https://doi.org/10.1080/09538259.2021.1912484 2403 01 DE-LFER https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/09538259.2021.1912484 26 00 DE-206 In this article, I offer a methodological analysis of the empirical research on the causal effects of trade liberalisation, and assess whether such studies can be of any use for guiding policy prescriptions in real-world economies. The analysis focuses on the mainstream economic research that has been used to support arguments in favour of trade liberalisation during the last decades. Even though there are empirical results that could be taken as valid evidence for a causal connection between free trade and economic gains, none of the existing evidence licences trustworthy inferences about the policy effectiveness of trade liberalisation reforms in real-world cases. There are three aspects of the empirical literature that make it highly problematic for making reliable policy inferences: (a) the criteria used to define the notion of 'free trade', (b) the background assumptions embedded in the econometric techniques used for estimating causal effects, and (c) the widespread desire among academic economists to attain scientific results in terms of universally valid generalisations. The analysis exposes a worrisome mismatch between, on the one hand, the research aims and outcomes of scientific economics and, on the other, the kind of evidence that would be useful for guiding actual policy deliberations.
allfields_unstemmed	10.1080/09538259.2021.1912484 doi (DE-627)180946675X (DE-599)KXP180946675X DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng Mireles-Flores, Luis verfasserin (DE-588)1050939905 (DE-627)785304576 (DE-576)405391218 aut The evidence for free trade and its background assumptions how well-established causal generalisations can be useless for policy Luis Mireles-Flores 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier causal inference (dpeaa)DE-206 Economic methodology (dpeaa)DE-206 empirical evidence (dpeaa)DE-206 free trade (dpeaa)DE-206 policy relevance (dpeaa)DE-206 science-policy interactions (dpeaa)DE-206 Enthalten in Review of political economy Abingdon : Carfax, 1989 34(2022), 3, Seite 534-563 Online-Ressource (DE-627)270128883 (DE-600)1476640-1 (DE-576)263252965 1465-3982 nnns volume:34 year:2022 number:3 pages:534-563 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/09538259.2021.1912484 Verlag kostenfrei https://doi.org/10.1080/09538259.2021.1912484 Resolving-System kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_647 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 GBV_ILN_2403 GBV_ILN_2403 ISIL_DE-LFER AR 34 2022 3 534-563 26 01 0206 4162653593 x1z 08-07-22 2403 01 DE-LFER 419057760X 00 --%%-- --%%-- n --%%-- l01 21-09-22 2403 01 DE-LFER https://doi.org/10.1080/09538259.2021.1912484 2403 01 DE-LFER https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/09538259.2021.1912484 26 00 DE-206 In this article, I offer a methodological analysis of the empirical research on the causal effects of trade liberalisation, and assess whether such studies can be of any use for guiding policy prescriptions in real-world economies. The analysis focuses on the mainstream economic research that has been used to support arguments in favour of trade liberalisation during the last decades. Even though there are empirical results that could be taken as valid evidence for a causal connection between free trade and economic gains, none of the existing evidence licences trustworthy inferences about the policy effectiveness of trade liberalisation reforms in real-world cases. There are three aspects of the empirical literature that make it highly problematic for making reliable policy inferences: (a) the criteria used to define the notion of 'free trade', (b) the background assumptions embedded in the econometric techniques used for estimating causal effects, and (c) the widespread desire among academic economists to attain scientific results in terms of universally valid generalisations. The analysis exposes a worrisome mismatch between, on the one hand, the research aims and outcomes of scientific economics and, on the other, the kind of evidence that would be useful for guiding actual policy deliberations.
allfieldsGer	10.1080/09538259.2021.1912484 doi (DE-627)180946675X (DE-599)KXP180946675X DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng Mireles-Flores, Luis verfasserin (DE-588)1050939905 (DE-627)785304576 (DE-576)405391218 aut The evidence for free trade and its background assumptions how well-established causal generalisations can be useless for policy Luis Mireles-Flores 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier causal inference (dpeaa)DE-206 Economic methodology (dpeaa)DE-206 empirical evidence (dpeaa)DE-206 free trade (dpeaa)DE-206 policy relevance (dpeaa)DE-206 science-policy interactions (dpeaa)DE-206 Enthalten in Review of political economy Abingdon : Carfax, 1989 34(2022), 3, Seite 534-563 Online-Ressource (DE-627)270128883 (DE-600)1476640-1 (DE-576)263252965 1465-3982 nnns volume:34 year:2022 number:3 pages:534-563 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/09538259.2021.1912484 Verlag kostenfrei https://doi.org/10.1080/09538259.2021.1912484 Resolving-System kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_647 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 GBV_ILN_2403 GBV_ILN_2403 ISIL_DE-LFER AR 34 2022 3 534-563 26 01 0206 4162653593 x1z 08-07-22 2403 01 DE-LFER 419057760X 00 --%%-- --%%-- n --%%-- l01 21-09-22 2403 01 DE-LFER https://doi.org/10.1080/09538259.2021.1912484 2403 01 DE-LFER https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/09538259.2021.1912484 26 00 DE-206 In this article, I offer a methodological analysis of the empirical research on the causal effects of trade liberalisation, and assess whether such studies can be of any use for guiding policy prescriptions in real-world economies. The analysis focuses on the mainstream economic research that has been used to support arguments in favour of trade liberalisation during the last decades. Even though there are empirical results that could be taken as valid evidence for a causal connection between free trade and economic gains, none of the existing evidence licences trustworthy inferences about the policy effectiveness of trade liberalisation reforms in real-world cases. There are three aspects of the empirical literature that make it highly problematic for making reliable policy inferences: (a) the criteria used to define the notion of 'free trade', (b) the background assumptions embedded in the econometric techniques used for estimating causal effects, and (c) the widespread desire among academic economists to attain scientific results in terms of universally valid generalisations. The analysis exposes a worrisome mismatch between, on the one hand, the research aims and outcomes of scientific economics and, on the other, the kind of evidence that would be useful for guiding actual policy deliberations.
allfieldsSound	10.1080/09538259.2021.1912484 doi (DE-627)180946675X (DE-599)KXP180946675X DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng Mireles-Flores, Luis verfasserin (DE-588)1050939905 (DE-627)785304576 (DE-576)405391218 aut The evidence for free trade and its background assumptions how well-established causal generalisations can be useless for policy Luis Mireles-Flores 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier causal inference (dpeaa)DE-206 Economic methodology (dpeaa)DE-206 empirical evidence (dpeaa)DE-206 free trade (dpeaa)DE-206 policy relevance (dpeaa)DE-206 science-policy interactions (dpeaa)DE-206 Enthalten in Review of political economy Abingdon : Carfax, 1989 34(2022), 3, Seite 534-563 Online-Ressource (DE-627)270128883 (DE-600)1476640-1 (DE-576)263252965 1465-3982 nnns volume:34 year:2022 number:3 pages:534-563 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/09538259.2021.1912484 Verlag kostenfrei https://doi.org/10.1080/09538259.2021.1912484 Resolving-System kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_647 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 GBV_ILN_2403 GBV_ILN_2403 ISIL_DE-LFER AR 34 2022 3 534-563 26 01 0206 4162653593 x1z 08-07-22 2403 01 DE-LFER 419057760X 00 --%%-- --%%-- n --%%-- l01 21-09-22 2403 01 DE-LFER https://doi.org/10.1080/09538259.2021.1912484 2403 01 DE-LFER https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/09538259.2021.1912484 26 00 DE-206 In this article, I offer a methodological analysis of the empirical research on the causal effects of trade liberalisation, and assess whether such studies can be of any use for guiding policy prescriptions in real-world economies. The analysis focuses on the mainstream economic research that has been used to support arguments in favour of trade liberalisation during the last decades. Even though there are empirical results that could be taken as valid evidence for a causal connection between free trade and economic gains, none of the existing evidence licences trustworthy inferences about the policy effectiveness of trade liberalisation reforms in real-world cases. There are three aspects of the empirical literature that make it highly problematic for making reliable policy inferences: (a) the criteria used to define the notion of 'free trade', (b) the background assumptions embedded in the econometric techniques used for estimating causal effects, and (c) the widespread desire among academic economists to attain scientific results in terms of universally valid generalisations. The analysis exposes a worrisome mismatch between, on the one hand, the research aims and outcomes of scientific economics and, on the other, the kind of evidence that would be useful for guiding actual policy deliberations.
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spellingShingle	Mireles-Flores, Luis misc causal inference misc Economic methodology misc empirical evidence misc free trade misc policy relevance misc science-policy interactions The evidence for free trade and its background assumptions how well-established causal generalisations can be useless for policy
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topic_title	26 00 DE-206 In this article, I offer a methodological analysis of the empirical research on the causal effects of trade liberalisation, and assess whether such studies can be of any use for guiding policy prescriptions in real-world economies. The analysis focuses on the mainstream economic research that has been used to support arguments in favour of trade liberalisation during the last decades. Even though there are empirical results that could be taken as valid evidence for a causal connection between free trade and economic gains, none of the existing evidence licences trustworthy inferences about the policy effectiveness of trade liberalisation reforms in real-world cases. There are three aspects of the empirical literature that make it highly problematic for making reliable policy inferences: (a) the criteria used to define the notion of 'free trade', (b) the background assumptions embedded in the econometric techniques used for estimating causal effects, and (c) the widespread desire among academic economists to attain scientific results in terms of universally valid generalisations. The analysis exposes a worrisome mismatch between, on the one hand, the research aims and outcomes of scientific economics and, on the other, the kind of evidence that would be useful for guiding actual policy deliberations The evidence for free trade and its background assumptions how well-established causal generalisations can be useless for policy Luis Mireles-Flores causal inference (dpeaa)DE-206 Economic methodology (dpeaa)DE-206 empirical evidence (dpeaa)DE-206 free trade (dpeaa)DE-206 policy relevance (dpeaa)DE-206 science-policy interactions (dpeaa)DE-206
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title_short	The evidence for free trade and its background assumptions
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ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">AR</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="952" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="d">34</subfield><subfield code="j">2022</subfield><subfield code="e">3</subfield><subfield code="h">534-563</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="980" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="2">26</subfield><subfield code="1">01</subfield><subfield code="x">0206</subfield><subfield code="b">4162653593</subfield><subfield code="y">x1z</subfield><subfield code="z">08-07-22</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="980" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="2">2403</subfield><subfield code="1">01</subfield><subfield code="x">DE-LFER</subfield><subfield code="b">419057760X</subfield><subfield code="c">00</subfield><subfield code="f">--%%--</subfield><subfield code="d">--%%--</subfield><subfield code="e">n</subfield><subfield code="j">--%%--</subfield><subfield code="y">l01</subfield><subfield code="z">21-09-22</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="981" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="2">2403</subfield><subfield code="1">01</subfield><subfield code="x">DE-LFER</subfield><subfield code="r">https://doi.org/10.1080/09538259.2021.1912484</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="981" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="2">2403</subfield><subfield code="1">01</subfield><subfield code="x">DE-LFER</subfield><subfield code="r">https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/09538259.2021.1912484</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="982" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="2">26</subfield><subfield code="1">00</subfield><subfield code="x">DE-206</subfield><subfield code="b">In this article, I offer a methodological analysis of the empirical research on the causal effects of trade liberalisation, and assess whether such studies can be of any use for guiding policy prescriptions in real-world economies. The analysis focuses on the mainstream economic research that has been used to support arguments in favour of trade liberalisation during the last decades. Even though there are empirical results that could be taken as valid evidence for a causal connection between free trade and economic gains, none of the existing evidence licences trustworthy inferences about the policy effectiveness of trade liberalisation reforms in real-world cases. There are three aspects of the empirical literature that make it highly problematic for making reliable policy inferences: (a) the criteria used to define the notion of 'free trade', (b) the background assumptions embedded in the econometric techniques used for estimating causal effects, and (c) the widespread desire among academic economists to attain scientific results in terms of universally valid generalisations. The analysis exposes a worrisome mismatch between, on the one hand, the research aims and outcomes of scientific economics and, on the other, the kind of evidence that would be useful for guiding actual policy deliberations.</subfield></datafield></record></collection>
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The evidence for free trade and its background assumptions : how well-established causal generalisations can be useless for policy

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