Central bank information and private-sector expectations

Gespeichert in:

Autor*in:	Güntner, Jochen - 1982- [verfasserIn]

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2022

Schlagwörter:	Blue Chip Economic Indicators central bank information shocks commercial forecasters forecast revisions local projections

Übergeordnetes Werk:	Enthalten in: Journal of forecasting - New York, NY : Wiley Interscience, 1982, 41(2022), 7 vom: Nov., Seite 1372-1385
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:41 ; year:2022 ; number:7 ; month:11 ; pages:1372-1385

Links:	Link aufrufen Link aufrufen

DOI / URN:	10.1002/for.2879

Katalog-ID:	1827582545

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allfields	10.1002/for.2879 doi (DE-627)1827582545 (DE-599)KXP1827582545 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng Güntner, Jochen 1982- verfasserin (DE-588)1027429181 (DE-627)729133451 (DE-576)373214162 aut Central bank information and private-sector expectations Jochen Güntner 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Blue Chip Economic Indicators (dpeaa)DE-206 central bank information shocks (dpeaa)DE-206 commercial forecasters (dpeaa)DE-206 forecast revisions (dpeaa)DE-206 local projections (dpeaa)DE-206 Enthalten in Journal of forecasting New York, NY : Wiley Interscience, 1982 41(2022), 7 vom: Nov., Seite 1372-1385 Online-Ressource (DE-627)314404422 (DE-600)2001645-1 (DE-576)095299890 1099-131X nnns volume:41 year:2022 number:7 month:11 pages:1372-1385 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/for.2879 Verlag kostenfrei https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2879 Resolving-System kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_184 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_266 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 GBV_ILN_2403 GBV_ILN_2403 ISIL_DE-LFER AR 41 2022 7 11 1372-1385 26 01 0206 4233940719 x1z 16-12-22 2403 01 DE-LFER 4245930888 00 --%%-- --%%-- n --%%-- l01 11-01-23 2403 01 DE-LFER https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2879 2403 01 DE-LFER https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/for.2879 26 00 DE-206 Recent advances in the literature allow disentangling the pure information component from the interest rate component of US monetary policy surprises. This article quantifies the information revealed around FOMC announcements using forecast revisions from Blue Chip Economic Indicators. Following a typical central bank information shock, survey participants revise their now- and short-term forecasts of both real GDP growth and the GDP deflator upwards, consistent with a shift of the aggregate demand curve along the aggregate supply curve. While now- and forecast revisions in real GDP growth are driven by negative central bank information shocks, those in the GDP deflator respond broadly symmetrically to good and bad news.
spelling	10.1002/for.2879 doi (DE-627)1827582545 (DE-599)KXP1827582545 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng Güntner, Jochen 1982- verfasserin (DE-588)1027429181 (DE-627)729133451 (DE-576)373214162 aut Central bank information and private-sector expectations Jochen Güntner 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Blue Chip Economic Indicators (dpeaa)DE-206 central bank information shocks (dpeaa)DE-206 commercial forecasters (dpeaa)DE-206 forecast revisions (dpeaa)DE-206 local projections (dpeaa)DE-206 Enthalten in Journal of forecasting New York, NY : Wiley Interscience, 1982 41(2022), 7 vom: Nov., Seite 1372-1385 Online-Ressource (DE-627)314404422 (DE-600)2001645-1 (DE-576)095299890 1099-131X nnns volume:41 year:2022 number:7 month:11 pages:1372-1385 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/for.2879 Verlag kostenfrei https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2879 Resolving-System kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_184 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_266 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 GBV_ILN_2403 GBV_ILN_2403 ISIL_DE-LFER AR 41 2022 7 11 1372-1385 26 01 0206 4233940719 x1z 16-12-22 2403 01 DE-LFER 4245930888 00 --%%-- --%%-- n --%%-- l01 11-01-23 2403 01 DE-LFER https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2879 2403 01 DE-LFER https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/for.2879 26 00 DE-206 Recent advances in the literature allow disentangling the pure information component from the interest rate component of US monetary policy surprises. This article quantifies the information revealed around FOMC announcements using forecast revisions from Blue Chip Economic Indicators. Following a typical central bank information shock, survey participants revise their now- and short-term forecasts of both real GDP growth and the GDP deflator upwards, consistent with a shift of the aggregate demand curve along the aggregate supply curve. While now- and forecast revisions in real GDP growth are driven by negative central bank information shocks, those in the GDP deflator respond broadly symmetrically to good and bad news.
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allfieldsGer	10.1002/for.2879 doi (DE-627)1827582545 (DE-599)KXP1827582545 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng Güntner, Jochen 1982- verfasserin (DE-588)1027429181 (DE-627)729133451 (DE-576)373214162 aut Central bank information and private-sector expectations Jochen Güntner 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Blue Chip Economic Indicators (dpeaa)DE-206 central bank information shocks (dpeaa)DE-206 commercial forecasters (dpeaa)DE-206 forecast revisions (dpeaa)DE-206 local projections (dpeaa)DE-206 Enthalten in Journal of forecasting New York, NY : Wiley Interscience, 1982 41(2022), 7 vom: Nov., Seite 1372-1385 Online-Ressource (DE-627)314404422 (DE-600)2001645-1 (DE-576)095299890 1099-131X nnns volume:41 year:2022 number:7 month:11 pages:1372-1385 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/for.2879 Verlag kostenfrei https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2879 Resolving-System kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_184 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_266 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 GBV_ILN_2403 GBV_ILN_2403 ISIL_DE-LFER AR 41 2022 7 11 1372-1385 26 01 0206 4233940719 x1z 16-12-22 2403 01 DE-LFER 4245930888 00 --%%-- --%%-- n --%%-- l01 11-01-23 2403 01 DE-LFER https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2879 2403 01 DE-LFER https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/for.2879 26 00 DE-206 Recent advances in the literature allow disentangling the pure information component from the interest rate component of US monetary policy surprises. This article quantifies the information revealed around FOMC announcements using forecast revisions from Blue Chip Economic Indicators. Following a typical central bank information shock, survey participants revise their now- and short-term forecasts of both real GDP growth and the GDP deflator upwards, consistent with a shift of the aggregate demand curve along the aggregate supply curve. While now- and forecast revisions in real GDP growth are driven by negative central bank information shocks, those in the GDP deflator respond broadly symmetrically to good and bad news.
allfieldsSound	10.1002/for.2879 doi (DE-627)1827582545 (DE-599)KXP1827582545 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng Güntner, Jochen 1982- verfasserin (DE-588)1027429181 (DE-627)729133451 (DE-576)373214162 aut Central bank information and private-sector expectations Jochen Güntner 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Blue Chip Economic Indicators (dpeaa)DE-206 central bank information shocks (dpeaa)DE-206 commercial forecasters (dpeaa)DE-206 forecast revisions (dpeaa)DE-206 local projections (dpeaa)DE-206 Enthalten in Journal of forecasting New York, NY : Wiley Interscience, 1982 41(2022), 7 vom: Nov., Seite 1372-1385 Online-Ressource (DE-627)314404422 (DE-600)2001645-1 (DE-576)095299890 1099-131X nnns volume:41 year:2022 number:7 month:11 pages:1372-1385 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/for.2879 Verlag kostenfrei https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2879 Resolving-System kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_184 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_266 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 GBV_ILN_2403 GBV_ILN_2403 ISIL_DE-LFER AR 41 2022 7 11 1372-1385 26 01 0206 4233940719 x1z 16-12-22 2403 01 DE-LFER 4245930888 00 --%%-- --%%-- n --%%-- l01 11-01-23 2403 01 DE-LFER https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2879 2403 01 DE-LFER https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/for.2879 26 00 DE-206 Recent advances in the literature allow disentangling the pure information component from the interest rate component of US monetary policy surprises. This article quantifies the information revealed around FOMC announcements using forecast revisions from Blue Chip Economic Indicators. Following a typical central bank information shock, survey participants revise their now- and short-term forecasts of both real GDP growth and the GDP deflator upwards, consistent with a shift of the aggregate demand curve along the aggregate supply curve. While now- and forecast revisions in real GDP growth are driven by negative central bank information shocks, those in the GDP deflator respond broadly symmetrically to good and bad news.
language	English
source	Enthalten in Journal of forecasting 41(2022), 7 vom: Nov., Seite 1372-1385 volume:41 year:2022 number:7 month:11 pages:1372-1385
sourceStr	Enthalten in Journal of forecasting 41(2022), 7 vom: Nov., Seite 1372-1385 volume:41 year:2022 number:7 month:11 pages:1372-1385
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topic_facet	Blue Chip Economic Indicators central bank information shocks commercial forecasters forecast revisions local projections
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author	Güntner, Jochen 1982-
spellingShingle	Güntner, Jochen 1982- misc Blue Chip Economic Indicators misc central bank information shocks misc commercial forecasters misc forecast revisions misc local projections Central bank information and private-sector expectations
authorStr	Güntner, Jochen 1982-
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topic_title	26 00 DE-206 Recent advances in the literature allow disentangling the pure information component from the interest rate component of US monetary policy surprises. This article quantifies the information revealed around FOMC announcements using forecast revisions from Blue Chip Economic Indicators. Following a typical central bank information shock, survey participants revise their now- and short-term forecasts of both real GDP growth and the GDP deflator upwards, consistent with a shift of the aggregate demand curve along the aggregate supply curve. While now- and forecast revisions in real GDP growth are driven by negative central bank information shocks, those in the GDP deflator respond broadly symmetrically to good and bad news Central bank information and private-sector expectations Jochen Güntner Blue Chip Economic Indicators (dpeaa)DE-206 central bank information shocks (dpeaa)DE-206 commercial forecasters (dpeaa)DE-206 forecast revisions (dpeaa)DE-206 local projections (dpeaa)DE-206
topic	misc Blue Chip Economic Indicators misc central bank information shocks misc commercial forecasters misc forecast revisions misc local projections
topic_unstemmed	misc Blue Chip Economic Indicators misc central bank information shocks misc commercial forecasters misc forecast revisions misc local projections
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title	Central bank information and private-sector expectations
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title_full	Central bank information and private-sector expectations Jochen Güntner
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title_sort	central bank information and private-sector expectations
title_auth	Central bank information and private-sector expectations
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container_issue	7
title_short	Central bank information and private-sector expectations
url	https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/for.2879 https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2879
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doi_str	10.1002/for.2879
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up_date	2024-07-04T16:03:48.501Z
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code="x">DE-LFER</subfield><subfield code="r">https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2879</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="981" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="2">2403</subfield><subfield code="1">01</subfield><subfield code="x">DE-LFER</subfield><subfield code="r">https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/for.2879</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="982" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="2">26</subfield><subfield code="1">00</subfield><subfield code="x">DE-206</subfield><subfield code="b">Recent advances in the literature allow disentangling the pure information component from the interest rate component of US monetary policy surprises. This article quantifies the information revealed around FOMC announcements using forecast revisions from Blue Chip Economic Indicators. Following a typical central bank information shock, survey participants revise their now- and short-term forecasts of both real GDP growth and the GDP deflator upwards, consistent with a shift of the aggregate demand curve along the aggregate supply curve. While now- and forecast revisions in real GDP growth are driven by negative central bank information shocks, those in the GDP deflator respond broadly symmetrically to good and bad news.</subfield></datafield></record></collection>
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Central bank information and private-sector expectations

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