Time-series dynamics of Baltic trade flows : structural breaks, regime shifts, and exchange-rate volatility
Aim/purpose - In the decades since their reintegration with the West, the small open economies of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have seen their trade flows grow substantially. While the mix of trade partners has evolved over time, the region has been affected by various political and economic shock...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Autor*in: |
Hegerty, Scott W. [verfasserIn] |
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E-Artikel |
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Sprache: |
Englisch |
Erschienen: |
2022 |
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Rechteinformationen: |
Open Access Namensnennung - Nicht kommerziell 4.0 International ; CC BY-NC 4.0 |
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Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Journal of economics & management - Warsaw, Poland : De Gruyter Poland, 2004, 44(2022), 1 vom: Jan., Seite 96-118 |
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Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:44 ; year:2022 ; number:1 ; month:01 ; pages:96-118 |
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DOI / URN: |
10.22367/jem.2022.44.05 |
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Katalog-ID: |
1856016196 |
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10.22367/jem.2022.44.05 doi (DE-627)1856016196 (DE-599)KXP1856016196 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng F14 F4 C1 jelc Hegerty, Scott W. verfasserin (DE-588)137139519 (DE-627)589729810 (DE-576)30236935X aut Time-series dynamics of Baltic trade flows structural breaks, regime shifts, and exchange-rate volatility Scott W. Hegerty 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier DE-206 Open Access Controlled Vocabulary for Access Rights http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 Aim/purpose - In the decades since their reintegration with the West, the small open economies of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have seen their trade flows grow substantially. While the mix of trade partners has evolved over time, the region has been affected by various political and economic shocks. This study examines the bilateral trade balances between the Baltic countries and nine partners to investigate whether there have been structural breaks due to political or economic events. Because these events may have been "priced into" exchange rates or increased these rates' volatility, connections between these variables and trade balances are also considered. Design/methodology/approach - Monthly data beginning in 1994 are taken from the International Monetary Fund's Direction of Trade Statistics [DOTS]. Trade partners include the Nordic countries of Finland, Sweden, and Norway, as well as Poland, Russia, and the United States and country groupings such as the CIS, Advanced Economies, and the World. Ratios of the export and import values are used to create bilateral trade balances. The Bai-Perron (1998) structural break test is then used to identify "break points" that can classify time periods into regimes. Baltic nominal and real effective exchange rates, both in log changes and as a GARCH-based volatility measure, show whether regimes correspond to competitiveness or risk. Correlations are calculated to show links between bilateral trade balances and real exchange rates. Findings - Each trade balance has at least one structural break; many have more. In fewer than half of the cases do these correspond to specific events such as EU accession or the Global Financial Crisis. Trade with Russia has decreased, particularly for Estonia and Latvia. But many partners with historical ties, such as Estonia-Finland, Latvia- -Sweden, and Lithuania-Poland have more breaks than do other partners (such as Estonia- -Poland). Structural breaks in real exchange-rate returns and volatility do not match those of trade balances, and correlations between returns and trade balances are low. Research implications/limitations - These findings open the door to future research on the macroeconomic and cultural/historical factors behind these trade linkages and any changes in regimes. However, no structural determinants have yet been estimated. Originality/value/contribution - This study isolates changes in trade regimes, which can be further explained by specific events or particular dates. It also shows that variance has changed as well as the mean, but this differs by country and by the partner. DE-206 Namensnennung - Nicht kommerziell 4.0 International CC BY-NC 4.0 cc https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ Trade flows (dpeaa)DE-206 Baltics (dpeaa)DE-206 time series (dpeaa)DE-206 structural breaks (dpeaa)DE-206 Enthalten in Journal of economics & management Warsaw, Poland : De Gruyter Poland, 2004 44(2022), 1 vom: Jan., Seite 96-118 Online-Ressource (DE-627)592071316 (DE-600)2479554-9 (DE-576)305897853 2719-9975 nnns volume:44 year:2022 number:1 month:01 pages:96-118 https://sciendo.com/pdf/10.22367/jem.2022.44.05 Verlag kostenfrei https://doi.org/10.22367/jem.2022.44.05 Resolving-System kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 GBV_ILN_2403 GBV_ILN_2403 ISIL_DE-LFER AR 44 2022 1 1 96-118 26 01 0206 4365842897 x1z 14-08-23 2403 01 DE-LFER 4374569308 00 --%%-- --%%-- n --%%-- l01 12-09-23 2403 01 DE-LFER https://doi.org/10.22367/jem.2022.44.05 2403 01 DE-LFER https://sciendo.com/pdf/10.22367/jem.2022.44.05 |
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10.22367/jem.2022.44.05 doi (DE-627)1856016196 (DE-599)KXP1856016196 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng F14 F4 C1 jelc Hegerty, Scott W. verfasserin (DE-588)137139519 (DE-627)589729810 (DE-576)30236935X aut Time-series dynamics of Baltic trade flows structural breaks, regime shifts, and exchange-rate volatility Scott W. Hegerty 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier DE-206 Open Access Controlled Vocabulary for Access Rights http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 Aim/purpose - In the decades since their reintegration with the West, the small open economies of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have seen their trade flows grow substantially. While the mix of trade partners has evolved over time, the region has been affected by various political and economic shocks. This study examines the bilateral trade balances between the Baltic countries and nine partners to investigate whether there have been structural breaks due to political or economic events. Because these events may have been "priced into" exchange rates or increased these rates' volatility, connections between these variables and trade balances are also considered. Design/methodology/approach - Monthly data beginning in 1994 are taken from the International Monetary Fund's Direction of Trade Statistics [DOTS]. Trade partners include the Nordic countries of Finland, Sweden, and Norway, as well as Poland, Russia, and the United States and country groupings such as the CIS, Advanced Economies, and the World. Ratios of the export and import values are used to create bilateral trade balances. The Bai-Perron (1998) structural break test is then used to identify "break points" that can classify time periods into regimes. Baltic nominal and real effective exchange rates, both in log changes and as a GARCH-based volatility measure, show whether regimes correspond to competitiveness or risk. Correlations are calculated to show links between bilateral trade balances and real exchange rates. Findings - Each trade balance has at least one structural break; many have more. In fewer than half of the cases do these correspond to specific events such as EU accession or the Global Financial Crisis. Trade with Russia has decreased, particularly for Estonia and Latvia. But many partners with historical ties, such as Estonia-Finland, Latvia- -Sweden, and Lithuania-Poland have more breaks than do other partners (such as Estonia- -Poland). Structural breaks in real exchange-rate returns and volatility do not match those of trade balances, and correlations between returns and trade balances are low. Research implications/limitations - These findings open the door to future research on the macroeconomic and cultural/historical factors behind these trade linkages and any changes in regimes. However, no structural determinants have yet been estimated. Originality/value/contribution - This study isolates changes in trade regimes, which can be further explained by specific events or particular dates. It also shows that variance has changed as well as the mean, but this differs by country and by the partner. DE-206 Namensnennung - Nicht kommerziell 4.0 International CC BY-NC 4.0 cc https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ Trade flows (dpeaa)DE-206 Baltics (dpeaa)DE-206 time series (dpeaa)DE-206 structural breaks (dpeaa)DE-206 Enthalten in Journal of economics & management Warsaw, Poland : De Gruyter Poland, 2004 44(2022), 1 vom: Jan., Seite 96-118 Online-Ressource (DE-627)592071316 (DE-600)2479554-9 (DE-576)305897853 2719-9975 nnns volume:44 year:2022 number:1 month:01 pages:96-118 https://sciendo.com/pdf/10.22367/jem.2022.44.05 Verlag kostenfrei https://doi.org/10.22367/jem.2022.44.05 Resolving-System kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 GBV_ILN_2403 GBV_ILN_2403 ISIL_DE-LFER AR 44 2022 1 1 96-118 26 01 0206 4365842897 x1z 14-08-23 2403 01 DE-LFER 4374569308 00 --%%-- --%%-- n --%%-- l01 12-09-23 2403 01 DE-LFER https://doi.org/10.22367/jem.2022.44.05 2403 01 DE-LFER https://sciendo.com/pdf/10.22367/jem.2022.44.05 |
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10.22367/jem.2022.44.05 doi (DE-627)1856016196 (DE-599)KXP1856016196 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng F14 F4 C1 jelc Hegerty, Scott W. verfasserin (DE-588)137139519 (DE-627)589729810 (DE-576)30236935X aut Time-series dynamics of Baltic trade flows structural breaks, regime shifts, and exchange-rate volatility Scott W. Hegerty 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier DE-206 Open Access Controlled Vocabulary for Access Rights http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 Aim/purpose - In the decades since their reintegration with the West, the small open economies of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have seen their trade flows grow substantially. While the mix of trade partners has evolved over time, the region has been affected by various political and economic shocks. This study examines the bilateral trade balances between the Baltic countries and nine partners to investigate whether there have been structural breaks due to political or economic events. Because these events may have been "priced into" exchange rates or increased these rates' volatility, connections between these variables and trade balances are also considered. Design/methodology/approach - Monthly data beginning in 1994 are taken from the International Monetary Fund's Direction of Trade Statistics [DOTS]. Trade partners include the Nordic countries of Finland, Sweden, and Norway, as well as Poland, Russia, and the United States and country groupings such as the CIS, Advanced Economies, and the World. Ratios of the export and import values are used to create bilateral trade balances. The Bai-Perron (1998) structural break test is then used to identify "break points" that can classify time periods into regimes. Baltic nominal and real effective exchange rates, both in log changes and as a GARCH-based volatility measure, show whether regimes correspond to competitiveness or risk. Correlations are calculated to show links between bilateral trade balances and real exchange rates. Findings - Each trade balance has at least one structural break; many have more. In fewer than half of the cases do these correspond to specific events such as EU accession or the Global Financial Crisis. Trade with Russia has decreased, particularly for Estonia and Latvia. But many partners with historical ties, such as Estonia-Finland, Latvia- -Sweden, and Lithuania-Poland have more breaks than do other partners (such as Estonia- -Poland). Structural breaks in real exchange-rate returns and volatility do not match those of trade balances, and correlations between returns and trade balances are low. Research implications/limitations - These findings open the door to future research on the macroeconomic and cultural/historical factors behind these trade linkages and any changes in regimes. However, no structural determinants have yet been estimated. Originality/value/contribution - This study isolates changes in trade regimes, which can be further explained by specific events or particular dates. It also shows that variance has changed as well as the mean, but this differs by country and by the partner. DE-206 Namensnennung - Nicht kommerziell 4.0 International CC BY-NC 4.0 cc https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ Trade flows (dpeaa)DE-206 Baltics (dpeaa)DE-206 time series (dpeaa)DE-206 structural breaks (dpeaa)DE-206 Enthalten in Journal of economics & management Warsaw, Poland : De Gruyter Poland, 2004 44(2022), 1 vom: Jan., Seite 96-118 Online-Ressource (DE-627)592071316 (DE-600)2479554-9 (DE-576)305897853 2719-9975 nnns volume:44 year:2022 number:1 month:01 pages:96-118 https://sciendo.com/pdf/10.22367/jem.2022.44.05 Verlag kostenfrei https://doi.org/10.22367/jem.2022.44.05 Resolving-System kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 GBV_ILN_2403 GBV_ILN_2403 ISIL_DE-LFER AR 44 2022 1 1 96-118 26 01 0206 4365842897 x1z 14-08-23 2403 01 DE-LFER 4374569308 00 --%%-- --%%-- n --%%-- l01 12-09-23 2403 01 DE-LFER https://doi.org/10.22367/jem.2022.44.05 2403 01 DE-LFER https://sciendo.com/pdf/10.22367/jem.2022.44.05 |
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10.22367/jem.2022.44.05 doi (DE-627)1856016196 (DE-599)KXP1856016196 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng F14 F4 C1 jelc Hegerty, Scott W. verfasserin (DE-588)137139519 (DE-627)589729810 (DE-576)30236935X aut Time-series dynamics of Baltic trade flows structural breaks, regime shifts, and exchange-rate volatility Scott W. Hegerty 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier DE-206 Open Access Controlled Vocabulary for Access Rights http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 Aim/purpose - In the decades since their reintegration with the West, the small open economies of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have seen their trade flows grow substantially. While the mix of trade partners has evolved over time, the region has been affected by various political and economic shocks. This study examines the bilateral trade balances between the Baltic countries and nine partners to investigate whether there have been structural breaks due to political or economic events. Because these events may have been "priced into" exchange rates or increased these rates' volatility, connections between these variables and trade balances are also considered. Design/methodology/approach - Monthly data beginning in 1994 are taken from the International Monetary Fund's Direction of Trade Statistics [DOTS]. Trade partners include the Nordic countries of Finland, Sweden, and Norway, as well as Poland, Russia, and the United States and country groupings such as the CIS, Advanced Economies, and the World. Ratios of the export and import values are used to create bilateral trade balances. The Bai-Perron (1998) structural break test is then used to identify "break points" that can classify time periods into regimes. Baltic nominal and real effective exchange rates, both in log changes and as a GARCH-based volatility measure, show whether regimes correspond to competitiveness or risk. Correlations are calculated to show links between bilateral trade balances and real exchange rates. Findings - Each trade balance has at least one structural break; many have more. In fewer than half of the cases do these correspond to specific events such as EU accession or the Global Financial Crisis. Trade with Russia has decreased, particularly for Estonia and Latvia. But many partners with historical ties, such as Estonia-Finland, Latvia- -Sweden, and Lithuania-Poland have more breaks than do other partners (such as Estonia- -Poland). Structural breaks in real exchange-rate returns and volatility do not match those of trade balances, and correlations between returns and trade balances are low. Research implications/limitations - These findings open the door to future research on the macroeconomic and cultural/historical factors behind these trade linkages and any changes in regimes. However, no structural determinants have yet been estimated. Originality/value/contribution - This study isolates changes in trade regimes, which can be further explained by specific events or particular dates. It also shows that variance has changed as well as the mean, but this differs by country and by the partner. DE-206 Namensnennung - Nicht kommerziell 4.0 International CC BY-NC 4.0 cc https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ Trade flows (dpeaa)DE-206 Baltics (dpeaa)DE-206 time series (dpeaa)DE-206 structural breaks (dpeaa)DE-206 Enthalten in Journal of economics & management Warsaw, Poland : De Gruyter Poland, 2004 44(2022), 1 vom: Jan., Seite 96-118 Online-Ressource (DE-627)592071316 (DE-600)2479554-9 (DE-576)305897853 2719-9975 nnns volume:44 year:2022 number:1 month:01 pages:96-118 https://sciendo.com/pdf/10.22367/jem.2022.44.05 Verlag kostenfrei https://doi.org/10.22367/jem.2022.44.05 Resolving-System kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 GBV_ILN_2403 GBV_ILN_2403 ISIL_DE-LFER AR 44 2022 1 1 96-118 26 01 0206 4365842897 x1z 14-08-23 2403 01 DE-LFER 4374569308 00 --%%-- --%%-- n --%%-- l01 12-09-23 2403 01 DE-LFER https://doi.org/10.22367/jem.2022.44.05 2403 01 DE-LFER https://sciendo.com/pdf/10.22367/jem.2022.44.05 |
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10.22367/jem.2022.44.05 doi (DE-627)1856016196 (DE-599)KXP1856016196 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng F14 F4 C1 jelc Hegerty, Scott W. verfasserin (DE-588)137139519 (DE-627)589729810 (DE-576)30236935X aut Time-series dynamics of Baltic trade flows structural breaks, regime shifts, and exchange-rate volatility Scott W. Hegerty 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier DE-206 Open Access Controlled Vocabulary for Access Rights http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 Aim/purpose - In the decades since their reintegration with the West, the small open economies of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have seen their trade flows grow substantially. While the mix of trade partners has evolved over time, the region has been affected by various political and economic shocks. This study examines the bilateral trade balances between the Baltic countries and nine partners to investigate whether there have been structural breaks due to political or economic events. Because these events may have been "priced into" exchange rates or increased these rates' volatility, connections between these variables and trade balances are also considered. Design/methodology/approach - Monthly data beginning in 1994 are taken from the International Monetary Fund's Direction of Trade Statistics [DOTS]. Trade partners include the Nordic countries of Finland, Sweden, and Norway, as well as Poland, Russia, and the United States and country groupings such as the CIS, Advanced Economies, and the World. Ratios of the export and import values are used to create bilateral trade balances. The Bai-Perron (1998) structural break test is then used to identify "break points" that can classify time periods into regimes. Baltic nominal and real effective exchange rates, both in log changes and as a GARCH-based volatility measure, show whether regimes correspond to competitiveness or risk. Correlations are calculated to show links between bilateral trade balances and real exchange rates. Findings - Each trade balance has at least one structural break; many have more. In fewer than half of the cases do these correspond to specific events such as EU accession or the Global Financial Crisis. Trade with Russia has decreased, particularly for Estonia and Latvia. But many partners with historical ties, such as Estonia-Finland, Latvia- -Sweden, and Lithuania-Poland have more breaks than do other partners (such as Estonia- -Poland). Structural breaks in real exchange-rate returns and volatility do not match those of trade balances, and correlations between returns and trade balances are low. Research implications/limitations - These findings open the door to future research on the macroeconomic and cultural/historical factors behind these trade linkages and any changes in regimes. However, no structural determinants have yet been estimated. Originality/value/contribution - This study isolates changes in trade regimes, which can be further explained by specific events or particular dates. It also shows that variance has changed as well as the mean, but this differs by country and by the partner. DE-206 Namensnennung - Nicht kommerziell 4.0 International CC BY-NC 4.0 cc https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ Trade flows (dpeaa)DE-206 Baltics (dpeaa)DE-206 time series (dpeaa)DE-206 structural breaks (dpeaa)DE-206 Enthalten in Journal of economics & management Warsaw, Poland : De Gruyter Poland, 2004 44(2022), 1 vom: Jan., Seite 96-118 Online-Ressource (DE-627)592071316 (DE-600)2479554-9 (DE-576)305897853 2719-9975 nnns volume:44 year:2022 number:1 month:01 pages:96-118 https://sciendo.com/pdf/10.22367/jem.2022.44.05 Verlag kostenfrei https://doi.org/10.22367/jem.2022.44.05 Resolving-System kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 GBV_ILN_2403 GBV_ILN_2403 ISIL_DE-LFER AR 44 2022 1 1 96-118 26 01 0206 4365842897 x1z 14-08-23 2403 01 DE-LFER 4374569308 00 --%%-- --%%-- n --%%-- l01 12-09-23 2403 01 DE-LFER https://doi.org/10.22367/jem.2022.44.05 2403 01 DE-LFER https://sciendo.com/pdf/10.22367/jem.2022.44.05 |
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F14 F4 C1 jelc Time-series dynamics of Baltic trade flows structural breaks, regime shifts, and exchange-rate volatility Scott W. Hegerty Trade flows (dpeaa)DE-206 Baltics (dpeaa)DE-206 time series (dpeaa)DE-206 structural breaks (dpeaa)DE-206 |
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Time-series dynamics of Baltic trade flows structural breaks, regime shifts, and exchange-rate volatility |
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Aim/purpose - In the decades since their reintegration with the West, the small open economies of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have seen their trade flows grow substantially. While the mix of trade partners has evolved over time, the region has been affected by various political and economic shocks. This study examines the bilateral trade balances between the Baltic countries and nine partners to investigate whether there have been structural breaks due to political or economic events. Because these events may have been "priced into" exchange rates or increased these rates' volatility, connections between these variables and trade balances are also considered. Design/methodology/approach - Monthly data beginning in 1994 are taken from the International Monetary Fund's Direction of Trade Statistics [DOTS]. Trade partners include the Nordic countries of Finland, Sweden, and Norway, as well as Poland, Russia, and the United States and country groupings such as the CIS, Advanced Economies, and the World. Ratios of the export and import values are used to create bilateral trade balances. The Bai-Perron (1998) structural break test is then used to identify "break points" that can classify time periods into regimes. Baltic nominal and real effective exchange rates, both in log changes and as a GARCH-based volatility measure, show whether regimes correspond to competitiveness or risk. Correlations are calculated to show links between bilateral trade balances and real exchange rates. Findings - Each trade balance has at least one structural break; many have more. In fewer than half of the cases do these correspond to specific events such as EU accession or the Global Financial Crisis. Trade with Russia has decreased, particularly for Estonia and Latvia. But many partners with historical ties, such as Estonia-Finland, Latvia- -Sweden, and Lithuania-Poland have more breaks than do other partners (such as Estonia- -Poland). Structural breaks in real exchange-rate returns and volatility do not match those of trade balances, and correlations between returns and trade balances are low. Research implications/limitations - These findings open the door to future research on the macroeconomic and cultural/historical factors behind these trade linkages and any changes in regimes. However, no structural determinants have yet been estimated. Originality/value/contribution - This study isolates changes in trade regimes, which can be further explained by specific events or particular dates. It also shows that variance has changed as well as the mean, but this differs by country and by the partner. |
abstractGer |
Aim/purpose - In the decades since their reintegration with the West, the small open economies of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have seen their trade flows grow substantially. While the mix of trade partners has evolved over time, the region has been affected by various political and economic shocks. This study examines the bilateral trade balances between the Baltic countries and nine partners to investigate whether there have been structural breaks due to political or economic events. Because these events may have been "priced into" exchange rates or increased these rates' volatility, connections between these variables and trade balances are also considered. Design/methodology/approach - Monthly data beginning in 1994 are taken from the International Monetary Fund's Direction of Trade Statistics [DOTS]. Trade partners include the Nordic countries of Finland, Sweden, and Norway, as well as Poland, Russia, and the United States and country groupings such as the CIS, Advanced Economies, and the World. Ratios of the export and import values are used to create bilateral trade balances. The Bai-Perron (1998) structural break test is then used to identify "break points" that can classify time periods into regimes. Baltic nominal and real effective exchange rates, both in log changes and as a GARCH-based volatility measure, show whether regimes correspond to competitiveness or risk. Correlations are calculated to show links between bilateral trade balances and real exchange rates. Findings - Each trade balance has at least one structural break; many have more. In fewer than half of the cases do these correspond to specific events such as EU accession or the Global Financial Crisis. Trade with Russia has decreased, particularly for Estonia and Latvia. But many partners with historical ties, such as Estonia-Finland, Latvia- -Sweden, and Lithuania-Poland have more breaks than do other partners (such as Estonia- -Poland). Structural breaks in real exchange-rate returns and volatility do not match those of trade balances, and correlations between returns and trade balances are low. Research implications/limitations - These findings open the door to future research on the macroeconomic and cultural/historical factors behind these trade linkages and any changes in regimes. However, no structural determinants have yet been estimated. Originality/value/contribution - This study isolates changes in trade regimes, which can be further explained by specific events or particular dates. It also shows that variance has changed as well as the mean, but this differs by country and by the partner. |
abstract_unstemmed |
Aim/purpose - In the decades since their reintegration with the West, the small open economies of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have seen their trade flows grow substantially. While the mix of trade partners has evolved over time, the region has been affected by various political and economic shocks. This study examines the bilateral trade balances between the Baltic countries and nine partners to investigate whether there have been structural breaks due to political or economic events. Because these events may have been "priced into" exchange rates or increased these rates' volatility, connections between these variables and trade balances are also considered. Design/methodology/approach - Monthly data beginning in 1994 are taken from the International Monetary Fund's Direction of Trade Statistics [DOTS]. Trade partners include the Nordic countries of Finland, Sweden, and Norway, as well as Poland, Russia, and the United States and country groupings such as the CIS, Advanced Economies, and the World. Ratios of the export and import values are used to create bilateral trade balances. The Bai-Perron (1998) structural break test is then used to identify "break points" that can classify time periods into regimes. Baltic nominal and real effective exchange rates, both in log changes and as a GARCH-based volatility measure, show whether regimes correspond to competitiveness or risk. Correlations are calculated to show links between bilateral trade balances and real exchange rates. Findings - Each trade balance has at least one structural break; many have more. In fewer than half of the cases do these correspond to specific events such as EU accession or the Global Financial Crisis. Trade with Russia has decreased, particularly for Estonia and Latvia. But many partners with historical ties, such as Estonia-Finland, Latvia- -Sweden, and Lithuania-Poland have more breaks than do other partners (such as Estonia- -Poland). Structural breaks in real exchange-rate returns and volatility do not match those of trade balances, and correlations between returns and trade balances are low. Research implications/limitations - These findings open the door to future research on the macroeconomic and cultural/historical factors behind these trade linkages and any changes in regimes. However, no structural determinants have yet been estimated. Originality/value/contribution - This study isolates changes in trade regimes, which can be further explained by specific events or particular dates. It also shows that variance has changed as well as the mean, but this differs by country and by the partner. |
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Structural breaks in real exchange-rate returns and volatility do not match those of trade balances, and correlations between returns and trade balances are low. Research implications/limitations - These findings open the door to future research on the macroeconomic and cultural/historical factors behind these trade linkages and any changes in regimes. However, no structural determinants have yet been estimated. Originality/value/contribution - This study isolates changes in trade regimes, which can be further explained by specific events or particular dates. 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