Calculating the costs and benefits of advance preparations for future pandemics

Gespeichert in:

Autor*in:	Glennerster, Rachel - 1965- [verfasserIn] Snyder, Christopher M. [verfasserIn] Tan, Brandon Joel [verfasserIn]

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2023

Schlagwörter:	Epidemie / Gesundheitsvorsorge / Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse / Wirtschaftsmodell / USA

Übergeordnetes Werk:	Enthalten in: IMF economic review - Internationaler Währungsfonds, Heidelberg : Springer Nature, 2010, 71(2023), 3 vom: Sept., Seite 611-648
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:71 ; year:2023 ; number:3 ; month:09 ; pages:611-648

Links:	Link aufrufen Link aufrufen

DOI / URN:	10.1057/s41308-023-00212-z

Katalog-ID:	1861506023

Internformat


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982			\|2 26 \|1 00 \|x DE-206 \|b While Covid-19 vaccines were developed and deployed with unprecedented speed, their widespread introduction could have been accelerated—saving millions of lives and trillions of dollars—had more vaccine capacity been available prior to the pandemic. Combining estimates of the frequency and intensity of pandemics with estimates of mortality, economic-output, and human-capital losses from pandemics of varying severities, we calculate that the present value of global social losses from the stream of future pandemics can be expected to be nearly $18 trillion—over $700 billion each year going forward. According to our model, a program spending $60 billion up front to expand production capacity and supply-chain inputs for vaccines and $5 billion annually thereafter would be sufficient to ensure production capacity to vaccinate 70% of the global population against a new virus within six months. The program would generate an expected net present value (NPV) gain of more than $500 billion over the status quo of delaying investment until a pandemic arrives. A program undertaken by the USA alone would generate an expected NPV gain of over $60 billion.

Indexfelder

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publishDate	2023
allfields	10.1057/s41308-023-00212-z doi (DE-627)1861506023 (DE-599)KXP1861506023 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng Glennerster, Rachel 1965- verfasserin (DE-588)130514845 (DE-627)503033715 (DE-576)298242257 aut Calculating the costs and benefits of advance preparations for future pandemics Rachel Glennerster, Christopher M. Snyder, Brandon Joel Tan 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier 1.1\x Epidemie (DE-627)091357535 (DE-2867)19790-6 stw 1.2\x Gesundheitsvorsorge (DE-627)09136342X (DE-2867)18892-3 stw 1.3\x Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse (DE-627)091372348 (DE-2867)11529-1 stw 1.4\x Wirtschaftsmodell (DE-627)091401097 (DE-2867)10065-1 stw 1.5\x USA (DE-627)091396867 (DE-2867)17829-1 stw Snyder, Christopher M. verfasserin (DE-588)128651539 (DE-627)376951370 (DE-576)276531388 aut Tan, Brandon Joel verfasserin (DE-588)1243611618 (DE-627)1774600560 aut Enthalten in Internationaler Währungsfonds IMF economic review Heidelberg : Springer Nature, 2010 71(2023), 3 vom: Sept., Seite 611-648 Online-Ressource (DE-627)636510522 (DE-600)2576115-8 (DE-576)333370155 2041-417X nnns volume:71 year:2023 number:3 month:09 pages:611-648 https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1057/s41308-023-00212-z.pdf Verlag lizenzpflichtig https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-023-00212-z Resolving-System lizenzpflichtig GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_374 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_2937 GBV_ILN_2941 GBV_ILN_2949 GBV_ILN_2950 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4346 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 71 2023 3 9 611-648 26 01 0206 4383889409 x1z 11-10-23 26 00 DE-206 While Covid-19 vaccines were developed and deployed with unprecedented speed, their widespread introduction could have been accelerated—saving millions of lives and trillions of dollars—had more vaccine capacity been available prior to the pandemic. Combining estimates of the frequency and intensity of pandemics with estimates of mortality, economic-output, and human-capital losses from pandemics of varying severities, we calculate that the present value of global social losses from the stream of future pandemics can be expected to be nearly $18 trillion—over $700 billion each year going forward. According to our model, a program spending $60 billion up front to expand production capacity and supply-chain inputs for vaccines and $5 billion annually thereafter would be sufficient to ensure production capacity to vaccinate 70% of the global population against a new virus within six months. The program would generate an expected net present value (NPV) gain of more than $500 billion over the status quo of delaying investment until a pandemic arrives. A program undertaken by the USA alone would generate an expected NPV gain of over $60 billion.
spelling	10.1057/s41308-023-00212-z doi (DE-627)1861506023 (DE-599)KXP1861506023 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng Glennerster, Rachel 1965- verfasserin (DE-588)130514845 (DE-627)503033715 (DE-576)298242257 aut Calculating the costs and benefits of advance preparations for future pandemics Rachel Glennerster, Christopher M. Snyder, Brandon Joel Tan 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier 1.1\x Epidemie (DE-627)091357535 (DE-2867)19790-6 stw 1.2\x Gesundheitsvorsorge (DE-627)09136342X (DE-2867)18892-3 stw 1.3\x Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse (DE-627)091372348 (DE-2867)11529-1 stw 1.4\x Wirtschaftsmodell (DE-627)091401097 (DE-2867)10065-1 stw 1.5\x USA (DE-627)091396867 (DE-2867)17829-1 stw Snyder, Christopher M. verfasserin (DE-588)128651539 (DE-627)376951370 (DE-576)276531388 aut Tan, Brandon Joel verfasserin (DE-588)1243611618 (DE-627)1774600560 aut Enthalten in Internationaler Währungsfonds IMF economic review Heidelberg : Springer Nature, 2010 71(2023), 3 vom: Sept., Seite 611-648 Online-Ressource (DE-627)636510522 (DE-600)2576115-8 (DE-576)333370155 2041-417X nnns volume:71 year:2023 number:3 month:09 pages:611-648 https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1057/s41308-023-00212-z.pdf Verlag lizenzpflichtig https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-023-00212-z Resolving-System lizenzpflichtig GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_374 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_2937 GBV_ILN_2941 GBV_ILN_2949 GBV_ILN_2950 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4346 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 71 2023 3 9 611-648 26 01 0206 4383889409 x1z 11-10-23 26 00 DE-206 While Covid-19 vaccines were developed and deployed with unprecedented speed, their widespread introduction could have been accelerated—saving millions of lives and trillions of dollars—had more vaccine capacity been available prior to the pandemic. Combining estimates of the frequency and intensity of pandemics with estimates of mortality, economic-output, and human-capital losses from pandemics of varying severities, we calculate that the present value of global social losses from the stream of future pandemics can be expected to be nearly $18 trillion—over $700 billion each year going forward. According to our model, a program spending $60 billion up front to expand production capacity and supply-chain inputs for vaccines and $5 billion annually thereafter would be sufficient to ensure production capacity to vaccinate 70% of the global population against a new virus within six months. The program would generate an expected net present value (NPV) gain of more than $500 billion over the status quo of delaying investment until a pandemic arrives. A program undertaken by the USA alone would generate an expected NPV gain of over $60 billion.
allfields_unstemmed	10.1057/s41308-023-00212-z doi (DE-627)1861506023 (DE-599)KXP1861506023 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng Glennerster, Rachel 1965- verfasserin (DE-588)130514845 (DE-627)503033715 (DE-576)298242257 aut Calculating the costs and benefits of advance preparations for future pandemics Rachel Glennerster, Christopher M. Snyder, Brandon Joel Tan 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier 1.1\x Epidemie (DE-627)091357535 (DE-2867)19790-6 stw 1.2\x Gesundheitsvorsorge (DE-627)09136342X (DE-2867)18892-3 stw 1.3\x Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse (DE-627)091372348 (DE-2867)11529-1 stw 1.4\x Wirtschaftsmodell (DE-627)091401097 (DE-2867)10065-1 stw 1.5\x USA (DE-627)091396867 (DE-2867)17829-1 stw Snyder, Christopher M. verfasserin (DE-588)128651539 (DE-627)376951370 (DE-576)276531388 aut Tan, Brandon Joel verfasserin (DE-588)1243611618 (DE-627)1774600560 aut Enthalten in Internationaler Währungsfonds IMF economic review Heidelberg : Springer Nature, 2010 71(2023), 3 vom: Sept., Seite 611-648 Online-Ressource (DE-627)636510522 (DE-600)2576115-8 (DE-576)333370155 2041-417X nnns volume:71 year:2023 number:3 month:09 pages:611-648 https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1057/s41308-023-00212-z.pdf Verlag lizenzpflichtig https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-023-00212-z Resolving-System lizenzpflichtig GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_374 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_2937 GBV_ILN_2941 GBV_ILN_2949 GBV_ILN_2950 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4346 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 71 2023 3 9 611-648 26 01 0206 4383889409 x1z 11-10-23 26 00 DE-206 While Covid-19 vaccines were developed and deployed with unprecedented speed, their widespread introduction could have been accelerated—saving millions of lives and trillions of dollars—had more vaccine capacity been available prior to the pandemic. Combining estimates of the frequency and intensity of pandemics with estimates of mortality, economic-output, and human-capital losses from pandemics of varying severities, we calculate that the present value of global social losses from the stream of future pandemics can be expected to be nearly $18 trillion—over $700 billion each year going forward. According to our model, a program spending $60 billion up front to expand production capacity and supply-chain inputs for vaccines and $5 billion annually thereafter would be sufficient to ensure production capacity to vaccinate 70% of the global population against a new virus within six months. The program would generate an expected net present value (NPV) gain of more than $500 billion over the status quo of delaying investment until a pandemic arrives. A program undertaken by the USA alone would generate an expected NPV gain of over $60 billion.
allfieldsGer	10.1057/s41308-023-00212-z doi (DE-627)1861506023 (DE-599)KXP1861506023 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng Glennerster, Rachel 1965- verfasserin (DE-588)130514845 (DE-627)503033715 (DE-576)298242257 aut Calculating the costs and benefits of advance preparations for future pandemics Rachel Glennerster, Christopher M. Snyder, Brandon Joel Tan 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier 1.1\x Epidemie (DE-627)091357535 (DE-2867)19790-6 stw 1.2\x Gesundheitsvorsorge (DE-627)09136342X (DE-2867)18892-3 stw 1.3\x Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse (DE-627)091372348 (DE-2867)11529-1 stw 1.4\x Wirtschaftsmodell (DE-627)091401097 (DE-2867)10065-1 stw 1.5\x USA (DE-627)091396867 (DE-2867)17829-1 stw Snyder, Christopher M. verfasserin (DE-588)128651539 (DE-627)376951370 (DE-576)276531388 aut Tan, Brandon Joel verfasserin (DE-588)1243611618 (DE-627)1774600560 aut Enthalten in Internationaler Währungsfonds IMF economic review Heidelberg : Springer Nature, 2010 71(2023), 3 vom: Sept., Seite 611-648 Online-Ressource (DE-627)636510522 (DE-600)2576115-8 (DE-576)333370155 2041-417X nnns volume:71 year:2023 number:3 month:09 pages:611-648 https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1057/s41308-023-00212-z.pdf Verlag lizenzpflichtig https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-023-00212-z Resolving-System lizenzpflichtig GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_374 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_2937 GBV_ILN_2941 GBV_ILN_2949 GBV_ILN_2950 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4346 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 71 2023 3 9 611-648 26 01 0206 4383889409 x1z 11-10-23 26 00 DE-206 While Covid-19 vaccines were developed and deployed with unprecedented speed, their widespread introduction could have been accelerated—saving millions of lives and trillions of dollars—had more vaccine capacity been available prior to the pandemic. Combining estimates of the frequency and intensity of pandemics with estimates of mortality, economic-output, and human-capital losses from pandemics of varying severities, we calculate that the present value of global social losses from the stream of future pandemics can be expected to be nearly $18 trillion—over $700 billion each year going forward. According to our model, a program spending $60 billion up front to expand production capacity and supply-chain inputs for vaccines and $5 billion annually thereafter would be sufficient to ensure production capacity to vaccinate 70% of the global population against a new virus within six months. The program would generate an expected net present value (NPV) gain of more than $500 billion over the status quo of delaying investment until a pandemic arrives. A program undertaken by the USA alone would generate an expected NPV gain of over $60 billion.
allfieldsSound	10.1057/s41308-023-00212-z doi (DE-627)1861506023 (DE-599)KXP1861506023 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng Glennerster, Rachel 1965- verfasserin (DE-588)130514845 (DE-627)503033715 (DE-576)298242257 aut Calculating the costs and benefits of advance preparations for future pandemics Rachel Glennerster, Christopher M. Snyder, Brandon Joel Tan 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier 1.1\x Epidemie (DE-627)091357535 (DE-2867)19790-6 stw 1.2\x Gesundheitsvorsorge (DE-627)09136342X (DE-2867)18892-3 stw 1.3\x Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse (DE-627)091372348 (DE-2867)11529-1 stw 1.4\x Wirtschaftsmodell (DE-627)091401097 (DE-2867)10065-1 stw 1.5\x USA (DE-627)091396867 (DE-2867)17829-1 stw Snyder, Christopher M. verfasserin (DE-588)128651539 (DE-627)376951370 (DE-576)276531388 aut Tan, Brandon Joel verfasserin (DE-588)1243611618 (DE-627)1774600560 aut Enthalten in Internationaler Währungsfonds IMF economic review Heidelberg : Springer Nature, 2010 71(2023), 3 vom: Sept., Seite 611-648 Online-Ressource (DE-627)636510522 (DE-600)2576115-8 (DE-576)333370155 2041-417X nnns volume:71 year:2023 number:3 month:09 pages:611-648 https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1057/s41308-023-00212-z.pdf Verlag lizenzpflichtig https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-023-00212-z Resolving-System lizenzpflichtig GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_374 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_2937 GBV_ILN_2941 GBV_ILN_2949 GBV_ILN_2950 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4346 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 71 2023 3 9 611-648 26 01 0206 4383889409 x1z 11-10-23 26 00 DE-206 While Covid-19 vaccines were developed and deployed with unprecedented speed, their widespread introduction could have been accelerated—saving millions of lives and trillions of dollars—had more vaccine capacity been available prior to the pandemic. Combining estimates of the frequency and intensity of pandemics with estimates of mortality, economic-output, and human-capital losses from pandemics of varying severities, we calculate that the present value of global social losses from the stream of future pandemics can be expected to be nearly $18 trillion—over $700 billion each year going forward. According to our model, a program spending $60 billion up front to expand production capacity and supply-chain inputs for vaccines and $5 billion annually thereafter would be sufficient to ensure production capacity to vaccinate 70% of the global population against a new virus within six months. The program would generate an expected net present value (NPV) gain of more than $500 billion over the status quo of delaying investment until a pandemic arrives. A program undertaken by the USA alone would generate an expected NPV gain of over $60 billion.
language	English
source	Enthalten in IMF economic review 71(2023), 3 vom: Sept., Seite 611-648 volume:71 year:2023 number:3 month:09 pages:611-648
sourceStr	Enthalten in IMF economic review 71(2023), 3 vom: Sept., Seite 611-648 volume:71 year:2023 number:3 month:09 pages:611-648
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topic_facet	Epidemie Gesundheitsvorsorge Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse Wirtschaftsmodell USA
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authorswithroles_txt_mv	Glennerster, Rachel @@aut@@ Snyder, Christopher M. @@aut@@ Tan, Brandon Joel @@aut@@
publishDateDaySort_date	2023-09-01T00:00:00Z
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code="1">00</subfield><subfield code="x">DE-206</subfield><subfield code="b">While Covid-19 vaccines were developed and deployed with unprecedented speed, their widespread introduction could have been accelerated—saving millions of lives and trillions of dollars—had more vaccine capacity been available prior to the pandemic. Combining estimates of the frequency and intensity of pandemics with estimates of mortality, economic-output, and human-capital losses from pandemics of varying severities, we calculate that the present value of global social losses from the stream of future pandemics can be expected to be nearly $18 trillion—over $700 billion each year going forward. According to our model, a program spending $60 billion up front to expand production capacity and supply-chain inputs for vaccines and $5 billion annually thereafter would be sufficient to ensure production capacity to vaccinate 70% of the global population against a new virus within six months. The program would generate an expected net present value (NPV) gain of more than $500 billion over the status quo of delaying investment until a pandemic arrives. A program undertaken by the USA alone would generate an expected NPV gain of over $60 billion.</subfield></datafield></record></collection>
author	Glennerster, Rachel 1965-
spellingShingle	Glennerster, Rachel 1965- stw Epidemie stw Gesundheitsvorsorge stw Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse stw Wirtschaftsmodell stw USA Calculating the costs and benefits of advance preparations for future pandemics
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topic_title	26 00 DE-206 While Covid-19 vaccines were developed and deployed with unprecedented speed, their widespread introduction could have been accelerated—saving millions of lives and trillions of dollars—had more vaccine capacity been available prior to the pandemic. Combining estimates of the frequency and intensity of pandemics with estimates of mortality, economic-output, and human-capital losses from pandemics of varying severities, we calculate that the present value of global social losses from the stream of future pandemics can be expected to be nearly $18 trillion—over $700 billion each year going forward. According to our model, a program spending $60 billion up front to expand production capacity and supply-chain inputs for vaccines and $5 billion annually thereafter would be sufficient to ensure production capacity to vaccinate 70% of the global population against a new virus within six months. The program would generate an expected net present value (NPV) gain of more than $500 billion over the status quo of delaying investment until a pandemic arrives. A program undertaken by the USA alone would generate an expected NPV gain of over $60 billion Calculating the costs and benefits of advance preparations for future pandemics Rachel Glennerster, Christopher M. Snyder, Brandon Joel Tan 1.1\x Epidemie (DE-627)091357535 (DE-2867)19790-6 stw 1.2\x Gesundheitsvorsorge (DE-627)09136342X (DE-2867)18892-3 stw 1.3\x Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse (DE-627)091372348 (DE-2867)11529-1 stw 1.4\x Wirtschaftsmodell (DE-627)091401097 (DE-2867)10065-1 stw 1.5\x USA (DE-627)091396867 (DE-2867)17829-1 stw
topic	stw Epidemie stw Gesundheitsvorsorge stw Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse stw Wirtschaftsmodell stw USA
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title	Calculating the costs and benefits of advance preparations for future pandemics
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title_full	Calculating the costs and benefits of advance preparations for future pandemics Rachel Glennerster, Christopher M. Snyder, Brandon Joel Tan
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title_sort	calculating the costs and benefits of advance preparations for future pandemics
title_auth	Calculating the costs and benefits of advance preparations for future pandemics
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container_issue	3
title_short	Calculating the costs and benefits of advance preparations for future pandemics
url	https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1057/s41308-023-00212-z.pdf https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-023-00212-z
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doi_str	10.1057/s41308-023-00212-z
up_date	2024-07-04T07:56:05.273Z
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code="a">GBV_ILN_4313</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">GBV_ILN_4322</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">GBV_ILN_4323</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">GBV_ILN_4324</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">GBV_ILN_4325</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">GBV_ILN_4326</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">GBV_ILN_4328</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">GBV_ILN_4333</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">GBV_ILN_4334</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">GBV_ILN_4335</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">GBV_ILN_4336</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">GBV_ILN_4338</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">GBV_ILN_4346</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">GBV_ILN_4393</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">GBV_ILN_4700</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="951" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">AR</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="952" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="d">71</subfield><subfield code="j">2023</subfield><subfield code="e">3</subfield><subfield code="c">9</subfield><subfield code="h">611-648</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="980" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="2">26</subfield><subfield code="1">01</subfield><subfield code="x">0206</subfield><subfield code="b">4383889409</subfield><subfield code="y">x1z</subfield><subfield code="z">11-10-23</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="982" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="2">26</subfield><subfield code="1">00</subfield><subfield code="x">DE-206</subfield><subfield code="b">While Covid-19 vaccines were developed and deployed with unprecedented speed, their widespread introduction could have been accelerated—saving millions of lives and trillions of dollars—had more vaccine capacity been available prior to the pandemic. Combining estimates of the frequency and intensity of pandemics with estimates of mortality, economic-output, and human-capital losses from pandemics of varying severities, we calculate that the present value of global social losses from the stream of future pandemics can be expected to be nearly $18 trillion—over $700 billion each year going forward. According to our model, a program spending $60 billion up front to expand production capacity and supply-chain inputs for vaccines and $5 billion annually thereafter would be sufficient to ensure production capacity to vaccinate 70% of the global population against a new virus within six months. The program would generate an expected net present value (NPV) gain of more than $500 billion over the status quo of delaying investment until a pandemic arrives. A program undertaken by the USA alone would generate an expected NPV gain of over $60 billion.</subfield></datafield></record></collection>
score	7.398225

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Calculating the costs and benefits of advance preparations for future pandemics

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