Delphi-based scenarios and risk management : a parallelism between paths destined to meet
Gespeichert in:
| Autor*in: |
Zio, Simone di [verfasserIn] Bolzan, Mario [verfasserIn] Marozzi, Marco [verfasserIn] Scioni, Manuela [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
E-Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2024 |
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| Schlagwörter: |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Socio-economic planning sciences - Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier Science, 1967, 92(2024) vom: Apr., Seite 1-10 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:92 ; year:2024 ; month:04 ; pages:1-10 |
| Links: |
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| DOI / URN: |
10.1016/j.seps.2024.101832 |
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| Katalog-ID: |
1888473673 |
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| 982 | |2 26 |1 00 |x DE-206 |b The complexity that characterizes our current society expresses new, articulated and not always punctually classifiable problems. Traditional risk management processes are typically based on projections obtained from historical data and are not suitable to address new, unexpected or complex risks. A proactive and forward-looking approach to risk management should be followed, which can be defined as future risk management. In the case of novel and complex issues, in presence of high uncertainty and little experience (typical situations when data are scarce), multiple approaches and techniques might be used and, in particular, organized and combined in a mixed methods approach. The aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive framework to manage effectively emerging and future risks by adopting a strategic foresight approach, which exploits a future scenario planning method and includes quali-quantitative tools. Our proposal consists of an integrated approach which, as in a protocol, indicates where and how to use each technique, in a consequential chain, in which the output of a step is the input of the following step. A four-year research project on future scenarios for contemporary families will serve as a representative example of this framework. | ||
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10.1016/j.seps.2024.101832 doi (DE-627)1888473673 (DE-599)KXP1888473673 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng Zio, Simone di verfasserin (DE-588)1019487860 (DE-627)684761491 (DE-576)358162505 aut Delphi-based scenarios and risk management a parallelism between paths destined to meet Simone Di Zio, Mario Bolzan, Marco Marozzi, Manuela Scioni 2024 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Family (dpeaa)DE-206 Futures scenarios (dpeaa)DE-206 Mixed methods (dpeaa)DE-206 Risk analysis (dpeaa)DE-206 Risk assessment (dpeaa)DE-206 Bolzan, Mario verfasserin aut Marozzi, Marco verfasserin aut Scioni, Manuela verfasserin aut Enthalten in Socio-economic planning sciences Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier Science, 1967 92(2024) vom: Apr., Seite 1-10 Online-Ressource (DE-627)302466495 (DE-600)1491145-0 (DE-576)079719449 0038-0121 nnns volume:92 year:2024 month:04 pages:1-10 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038012124000314/pdf Verlag lizenzpflichtig https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2024.101832 Resolving-System lizenzpflichtig GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_101 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 92 2024 4 1-10 26 01 0206 4522644434 x1z 14-05-24 26 00 DE-206 The complexity that characterizes our current society expresses new, articulated and not always punctually classifiable problems. Traditional risk management processes are typically based on projections obtained from historical data and are not suitable to address new, unexpected or complex risks. A proactive and forward-looking approach to risk management should be followed, which can be defined as future risk management. In the case of novel and complex issues, in presence of high uncertainty and little experience (typical situations when data are scarce), multiple approaches and techniques might be used and, in particular, organized and combined in a mixed methods approach. The aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive framework to manage effectively emerging and future risks by adopting a strategic foresight approach, which exploits a future scenario planning method and includes quali-quantitative tools. Our proposal consists of an integrated approach which, as in a protocol, indicates where and how to use each technique, in a consequential chain, in which the output of a step is the input of the following step. A four-year research project on future scenarios for contemporary families will serve as a representative example of this framework. |
| spelling |
10.1016/j.seps.2024.101832 doi (DE-627)1888473673 (DE-599)KXP1888473673 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng Zio, Simone di verfasserin (DE-588)1019487860 (DE-627)684761491 (DE-576)358162505 aut Delphi-based scenarios and risk management a parallelism between paths destined to meet Simone Di Zio, Mario Bolzan, Marco Marozzi, Manuela Scioni 2024 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Family (dpeaa)DE-206 Futures scenarios (dpeaa)DE-206 Mixed methods (dpeaa)DE-206 Risk analysis (dpeaa)DE-206 Risk assessment (dpeaa)DE-206 Bolzan, Mario verfasserin aut Marozzi, Marco verfasserin aut Scioni, Manuela verfasserin aut Enthalten in Socio-economic planning sciences Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier Science, 1967 92(2024) vom: Apr., Seite 1-10 Online-Ressource (DE-627)302466495 (DE-600)1491145-0 (DE-576)079719449 0038-0121 nnns volume:92 year:2024 month:04 pages:1-10 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038012124000314/pdf Verlag lizenzpflichtig https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2024.101832 Resolving-System lizenzpflichtig GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_101 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 92 2024 4 1-10 26 01 0206 4522644434 x1z 14-05-24 26 00 DE-206 The complexity that characterizes our current society expresses new, articulated and not always punctually classifiable problems. Traditional risk management processes are typically based on projections obtained from historical data and are not suitable to address new, unexpected or complex risks. A proactive and forward-looking approach to risk management should be followed, which can be defined as future risk management. In the case of novel and complex issues, in presence of high uncertainty and little experience (typical situations when data are scarce), multiple approaches and techniques might be used and, in particular, organized and combined in a mixed methods approach. The aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive framework to manage effectively emerging and future risks by adopting a strategic foresight approach, which exploits a future scenario planning method and includes quali-quantitative tools. Our proposal consists of an integrated approach which, as in a protocol, indicates where and how to use each technique, in a consequential chain, in which the output of a step is the input of the following step. A four-year research project on future scenarios for contemporary families will serve as a representative example of this framework. |
| allfields_unstemmed |
10.1016/j.seps.2024.101832 doi (DE-627)1888473673 (DE-599)KXP1888473673 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng Zio, Simone di verfasserin (DE-588)1019487860 (DE-627)684761491 (DE-576)358162505 aut Delphi-based scenarios and risk management a parallelism between paths destined to meet Simone Di Zio, Mario Bolzan, Marco Marozzi, Manuela Scioni 2024 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Family (dpeaa)DE-206 Futures scenarios (dpeaa)DE-206 Mixed methods (dpeaa)DE-206 Risk analysis (dpeaa)DE-206 Risk assessment (dpeaa)DE-206 Bolzan, Mario verfasserin aut Marozzi, Marco verfasserin aut Scioni, Manuela verfasserin aut Enthalten in Socio-economic planning sciences Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier Science, 1967 92(2024) vom: Apr., Seite 1-10 Online-Ressource (DE-627)302466495 (DE-600)1491145-0 (DE-576)079719449 0038-0121 nnns volume:92 year:2024 month:04 pages:1-10 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038012124000314/pdf Verlag lizenzpflichtig https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2024.101832 Resolving-System lizenzpflichtig GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_101 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 92 2024 4 1-10 26 01 0206 4522644434 x1z 14-05-24 26 00 DE-206 The complexity that characterizes our current society expresses new, articulated and not always punctually classifiable problems. Traditional risk management processes are typically based on projections obtained from historical data and are not suitable to address new, unexpected or complex risks. A proactive and forward-looking approach to risk management should be followed, which can be defined as future risk management. In the case of novel and complex issues, in presence of high uncertainty and little experience (typical situations when data are scarce), multiple approaches and techniques might be used and, in particular, organized and combined in a mixed methods approach. The aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive framework to manage effectively emerging and future risks by adopting a strategic foresight approach, which exploits a future scenario planning method and includes quali-quantitative tools. Our proposal consists of an integrated approach which, as in a protocol, indicates where and how to use each technique, in a consequential chain, in which the output of a step is the input of the following step. A four-year research project on future scenarios for contemporary families will serve as a representative example of this framework. |
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10.1016/j.seps.2024.101832 doi (DE-627)1888473673 (DE-599)KXP1888473673 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng Zio, Simone di verfasserin (DE-588)1019487860 (DE-627)684761491 (DE-576)358162505 aut Delphi-based scenarios and risk management a parallelism between paths destined to meet Simone Di Zio, Mario Bolzan, Marco Marozzi, Manuela Scioni 2024 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Family (dpeaa)DE-206 Futures scenarios (dpeaa)DE-206 Mixed methods (dpeaa)DE-206 Risk analysis (dpeaa)DE-206 Risk assessment (dpeaa)DE-206 Bolzan, Mario verfasserin aut Marozzi, Marco verfasserin aut Scioni, Manuela verfasserin aut Enthalten in Socio-economic planning sciences Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier Science, 1967 92(2024) vom: Apr., Seite 1-10 Online-Ressource (DE-627)302466495 (DE-600)1491145-0 (DE-576)079719449 0038-0121 nnns volume:92 year:2024 month:04 pages:1-10 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038012124000314/pdf Verlag lizenzpflichtig https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2024.101832 Resolving-System lizenzpflichtig GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_101 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 92 2024 4 1-10 26 01 0206 4522644434 x1z 14-05-24 26 00 DE-206 The complexity that characterizes our current society expresses new, articulated and not always punctually classifiable problems. Traditional risk management processes are typically based on projections obtained from historical data and are not suitable to address new, unexpected or complex risks. A proactive and forward-looking approach to risk management should be followed, which can be defined as future risk management. In the case of novel and complex issues, in presence of high uncertainty and little experience (typical situations when data are scarce), multiple approaches and techniques might be used and, in particular, organized and combined in a mixed methods approach. The aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive framework to manage effectively emerging and future risks by adopting a strategic foresight approach, which exploits a future scenario planning method and includes quali-quantitative tools. Our proposal consists of an integrated approach which, as in a protocol, indicates where and how to use each technique, in a consequential chain, in which the output of a step is the input of the following step. A four-year research project on future scenarios for contemporary families will serve as a representative example of this framework. |
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10.1016/j.seps.2024.101832 doi (DE-627)1888473673 (DE-599)KXP1888473673 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng Zio, Simone di verfasserin (DE-588)1019487860 (DE-627)684761491 (DE-576)358162505 aut Delphi-based scenarios and risk management a parallelism between paths destined to meet Simone Di Zio, Mario Bolzan, Marco Marozzi, Manuela Scioni 2024 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Family (dpeaa)DE-206 Futures scenarios (dpeaa)DE-206 Mixed methods (dpeaa)DE-206 Risk analysis (dpeaa)DE-206 Risk assessment (dpeaa)DE-206 Bolzan, Mario verfasserin aut Marozzi, Marco verfasserin aut Scioni, Manuela verfasserin aut Enthalten in Socio-economic planning sciences Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier Science, 1967 92(2024) vom: Apr., Seite 1-10 Online-Ressource (DE-627)302466495 (DE-600)1491145-0 (DE-576)079719449 0038-0121 nnns volume:92 year:2024 month:04 pages:1-10 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038012124000314/pdf Verlag lizenzpflichtig https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2024.101832 Resolving-System lizenzpflichtig GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ILN_26 ISIL_DE-206 SYSFLAG_1 GBV_KXP GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_101 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 92 2024 4 1-10 26 01 0206 4522644434 x1z 14-05-24 26 00 DE-206 The complexity that characterizes our current society expresses new, articulated and not always punctually classifiable problems. Traditional risk management processes are typically based on projections obtained from historical data and are not suitable to address new, unexpected or complex risks. A proactive and forward-looking approach to risk management should be followed, which can be defined as future risk management. In the case of novel and complex issues, in presence of high uncertainty and little experience (typical situations when data are scarce), multiple approaches and techniques might be used and, in particular, organized and combined in a mixed methods approach. The aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive framework to manage effectively emerging and future risks by adopting a strategic foresight approach, which exploits a future scenario planning method and includes quali-quantitative tools. Our proposal consists of an integrated approach which, as in a protocol, indicates where and how to use each technique, in a consequential chain, in which the output of a step is the input of the following step. A four-year research project on future scenarios for contemporary families will serve as a representative example of this framework. |
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code="b">The complexity that characterizes our current society expresses new, articulated and not always punctually classifiable problems. Traditional risk management processes are typically based on projections obtained from historical data and are not suitable to address new, unexpected or complex risks. A proactive and forward-looking approach to risk management should be followed, which can be defined as future risk management. In the case of novel and complex issues, in presence of high uncertainty and little experience (typical situations when data are scarce), multiple approaches and techniques might be used and, in particular, organized and combined in a mixed methods approach. The aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive framework to manage effectively emerging and future risks by adopting a strategic foresight approach, which exploits a future scenario planning method and includes quali-quantitative tools. Our proposal consists of an integrated approach which, as in a protocol, indicates where and how to use each technique, in a consequential chain, in which the output of a step is the input of the following step. A four-year research project on future scenarios for contemporary families will serve as a representative example of this framework.</subfield></datafield></record></collection>
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26 00 DE-206 The complexity that characterizes our current society expresses new, articulated and not always punctually classifiable problems. Traditional risk management processes are typically based on projections obtained from historical data and are not suitable to address new, unexpected or complex risks. A proactive and forward-looking approach to risk management should be followed, which can be defined as future risk management. In the case of novel and complex issues, in presence of high uncertainty and little experience (typical situations when data are scarce), multiple approaches and techniques might be used and, in particular, organized and combined in a mixed methods approach. The aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive framework to manage effectively emerging and future risks by adopting a strategic foresight approach, which exploits a future scenario planning method and includes quali-quantitative tools. Our proposal consists of an integrated approach which, as in a protocol, indicates where and how to use each technique, in a consequential chain, in which the output of a step is the input of the following step. A four-year research project on future scenarios for contemporary families will serve as a representative example of this framework Delphi-based scenarios and risk management a parallelism between paths destined to meet Simone Di Zio, Mario Bolzan, Marco Marozzi, Manuela Scioni Family (dpeaa)DE-206 Futures scenarios (dpeaa)DE-206 Mixed methods (dpeaa)DE-206 Risk analysis (dpeaa)DE-206 Risk assessment (dpeaa)DE-206 |
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code="b">The complexity that characterizes our current society expresses new, articulated and not always punctually classifiable problems. Traditional risk management processes are typically based on projections obtained from historical data and are not suitable to address new, unexpected or complex risks. A proactive and forward-looking approach to risk management should be followed, which can be defined as future risk management. In the case of novel and complex issues, in presence of high uncertainty and little experience (typical situations when data are scarce), multiple approaches and techniques might be used and, in particular, organized and combined in a mixed methods approach. The aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive framework to manage effectively emerging and future risks by adopting a strategic foresight approach, which exploits a future scenario planning method and includes quali-quantitative tools. Our proposal consists of an integrated approach which, as in a protocol, indicates where and how to use each technique, in a consequential chain, in which the output of a step is the input of the following step. A four-year research project on future scenarios for contemporary families will serve as a representative example of this framework.</subfield></datafield></record></collection>
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| score |
7.4021845 |