The positive externalities of migrant-based TB control strategy in a Chinese urban population with internal migration: a transmission-dynamic modeling study

Abstract Background Large-scale rural-to-urban migration has changed the epidemiology of tuberculosis (TB) in large Chinese cities. We estimated the contribution of TB importation, reactivation of latent infection, and local transmission to new TB cases in Shanghai, and compared the potential impact...
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Autor*in:	Chongguang Yang [verfasserIn] Jian Kang [verfasserIn] Liping Lu [verfasserIn] Xiaoqin Guo [verfasserIn] Xin Shen [verfasserIn] Ted Cohen [verfasserIn] Nicolas A. Menzies [verfasserIn]

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2021

Schlagwörter:	Tuberculosis Internal migration Transmission-dynamic modeling China Public health policy

Übergeordnetes Werk:	In: BMC Medicine - BMC, 2003, 19(2021), 1, Seite 14
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:19 ; year:2021 ; number:1 ; pages:14

Links:	Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Journal toc

DOI / URN:	10.1186/s12916-021-01968-9

Katalog-ID:	DOAJ000889008

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520			\|a Abstract Background Large-scale rural-to-urban migration has changed the epidemiology of tuberculosis (TB) in large Chinese cities. We estimated the contribution of TB importation, reactivation of latent infection, and local transmission to new TB cases in Shanghai, and compared the potential impact of intervention options. Methods We developed a transmission dynamic model of TB for Songjiang District, Shanghai, which has experienced high migration over the past 25 years. We calibrated the model to local demographic data, TB notifications, and molecular epidemiologic studies. We estimated epidemiological drivers as well as future outcomes of current TB policies and compared this base-case scenario with scenarios describing additional targeted interventions focusing on migrants or vulnerable residents. Results The model captured key demographic and epidemiological features of TB among migrant and resident populations in Songjiang District, Shanghai. Between 2020 and 2035, we estimate that over 60% of TB cases will occur among migrants and that approximately 43% of these cases will result from recent infection. While TB incidence will decline under current policies, we estimate that additional interventions—including active screening and preventive treatment for migrants—could reduce TB incidence by an additional 20% by 2035. Conclusions Migrant-focused TB interventions could produce meaningful health benefits for migrants, as well as for young residents who receive indirect protection as a result of reduced TB transmission in Shanghai. Further studies to measure cost-effectiveness are needed to evaluate the feasibility of these interventions in Shanghai and similar urban centers experiencing high migration volumes.
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allfields	10.1186/s12916-021-01968-9 doi (DE-627)DOAJ000889008 (DE-599)DOAJe61b87ffb8784f4bb5ac490e030ba832 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Chongguang Yang verfasserin aut The positive externalities of migrant-based TB control strategy in a Chinese urban population with internal migration: a transmission-dynamic modeling study 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract Background Large-scale rural-to-urban migration has changed the epidemiology of tuberculosis (TB) in large Chinese cities. We estimated the contribution of TB importation, reactivation of latent infection, and local transmission to new TB cases in Shanghai, and compared the potential impact of intervention options. Methods We developed a transmission dynamic model of TB for Songjiang District, Shanghai, which has experienced high migration over the past 25 years. We calibrated the model to local demographic data, TB notifications, and molecular epidemiologic studies. We estimated epidemiological drivers as well as future outcomes of current TB policies and compared this base-case scenario with scenarios describing additional targeted interventions focusing on migrants or vulnerable residents. Results The model captured key demographic and epidemiological features of TB among migrant and resident populations in Songjiang District, Shanghai. Between 2020 and 2035, we estimate that over 60% of TB cases will occur among migrants and that approximately 43% of these cases will result from recent infection. While TB incidence will decline under current policies, we estimate that additional interventions—including active screening and preventive treatment for migrants—could reduce TB incidence by an additional 20% by 2035. Conclusions Migrant-focused TB interventions could produce meaningful health benefits for migrants, as well as for young residents who receive indirect protection as a result of reduced TB transmission in Shanghai. Further studies to measure cost-effectiveness are needed to evaluate the feasibility of these interventions in Shanghai and similar urban centers experiencing high migration volumes. Tuberculosis Internal migration Transmission-dynamic modeling China Public health policy Medicine R Jian Kang verfasserin aut Liping Lu verfasserin aut Xiaoqin Guo verfasserin aut Xin Shen verfasserin aut Ted Cohen verfasserin aut Nicolas A. Menzies verfasserin aut In BMC Medicine BMC, 2003 19(2021), 1, Seite 14 (DE-627)377271225 (DE-600)2131669-7 17417015 nnns volume:19 year:2021 number:1 pages:14 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-021-01968-9 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/e61b87ffb8784f4bb5ac490e030ba832 kostenfrei https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-021-01968-9 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1741-7015 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 19 2021 1 14
spelling	10.1186/s12916-021-01968-9 doi (DE-627)DOAJ000889008 (DE-599)DOAJe61b87ffb8784f4bb5ac490e030ba832 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Chongguang Yang verfasserin aut The positive externalities of migrant-based TB control strategy in a Chinese urban population with internal migration: a transmission-dynamic modeling study 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract Background Large-scale rural-to-urban migration has changed the epidemiology of tuberculosis (TB) in large Chinese cities. We estimated the contribution of TB importation, reactivation of latent infection, and local transmission to new TB cases in Shanghai, and compared the potential impact of intervention options. Methods We developed a transmission dynamic model of TB for Songjiang District, Shanghai, which has experienced high migration over the past 25 years. We calibrated the model to local demographic data, TB notifications, and molecular epidemiologic studies. We estimated epidemiological drivers as well as future outcomes of current TB policies and compared this base-case scenario with scenarios describing additional targeted interventions focusing on migrants or vulnerable residents. Results The model captured key demographic and epidemiological features of TB among migrant and resident populations in Songjiang District, Shanghai. Between 2020 and 2035, we estimate that over 60% of TB cases will occur among migrants and that approximately 43% of these cases will result from recent infection. While TB incidence will decline under current policies, we estimate that additional interventions—including active screening and preventive treatment for migrants—could reduce TB incidence by an additional 20% by 2035. Conclusions Migrant-focused TB interventions could produce meaningful health benefits for migrants, as well as for young residents who receive indirect protection as a result of reduced TB transmission in Shanghai. Further studies to measure cost-effectiveness are needed to evaluate the feasibility of these interventions in Shanghai and similar urban centers experiencing high migration volumes. Tuberculosis Internal migration Transmission-dynamic modeling China Public health policy Medicine R Jian Kang verfasserin aut Liping Lu verfasserin aut Xiaoqin Guo verfasserin aut Xin Shen verfasserin aut Ted Cohen verfasserin aut Nicolas A. Menzies verfasserin aut In BMC Medicine BMC, 2003 19(2021), 1, Seite 14 (DE-627)377271225 (DE-600)2131669-7 17417015 nnns volume:19 year:2021 number:1 pages:14 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-021-01968-9 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/e61b87ffb8784f4bb5ac490e030ba832 kostenfrei https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-021-01968-9 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1741-7015 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 19 2021 1 14
allfields_unstemmed	10.1186/s12916-021-01968-9 doi (DE-627)DOAJ000889008 (DE-599)DOAJe61b87ffb8784f4bb5ac490e030ba832 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Chongguang Yang verfasserin aut The positive externalities of migrant-based TB control strategy in a Chinese urban population with internal migration: a transmission-dynamic modeling study 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract Background Large-scale rural-to-urban migration has changed the epidemiology of tuberculosis (TB) in large Chinese cities. We estimated the contribution of TB importation, reactivation of latent infection, and local transmission to new TB cases in Shanghai, and compared the potential impact of intervention options. Methods We developed a transmission dynamic model of TB for Songjiang District, Shanghai, which has experienced high migration over the past 25 years. We calibrated the model to local demographic data, TB notifications, and molecular epidemiologic studies. We estimated epidemiological drivers as well as future outcomes of current TB policies and compared this base-case scenario with scenarios describing additional targeted interventions focusing on migrants or vulnerable residents. Results The model captured key demographic and epidemiological features of TB among migrant and resident populations in Songjiang District, Shanghai. Between 2020 and 2035, we estimate that over 60% of TB cases will occur among migrants and that approximately 43% of these cases will result from recent infection. While TB incidence will decline under current policies, we estimate that additional interventions—including active screening and preventive treatment for migrants—could reduce TB incidence by an additional 20% by 2035. Conclusions Migrant-focused TB interventions could produce meaningful health benefits for migrants, as well as for young residents who receive indirect protection as a result of reduced TB transmission in Shanghai. Further studies to measure cost-effectiveness are needed to evaluate the feasibility of these interventions in Shanghai and similar urban centers experiencing high migration volumes. Tuberculosis Internal migration Transmission-dynamic modeling China Public health policy Medicine R Jian Kang verfasserin aut Liping Lu verfasserin aut Xiaoqin Guo verfasserin aut Xin Shen verfasserin aut Ted Cohen verfasserin aut Nicolas A. Menzies verfasserin aut In BMC Medicine BMC, 2003 19(2021), 1, Seite 14 (DE-627)377271225 (DE-600)2131669-7 17417015 nnns volume:19 year:2021 number:1 pages:14 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-021-01968-9 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/e61b87ffb8784f4bb5ac490e030ba832 kostenfrei https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-021-01968-9 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1741-7015 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 19 2021 1 14
allfieldsGer	10.1186/s12916-021-01968-9 doi (DE-627)DOAJ000889008 (DE-599)DOAJe61b87ffb8784f4bb5ac490e030ba832 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Chongguang Yang verfasserin aut The positive externalities of migrant-based TB control strategy in a Chinese urban population with internal migration: a transmission-dynamic modeling study 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract Background Large-scale rural-to-urban migration has changed the epidemiology of tuberculosis (TB) in large Chinese cities. We estimated the contribution of TB importation, reactivation of latent infection, and local transmission to new TB cases in Shanghai, and compared the potential impact of intervention options. Methods We developed a transmission dynamic model of TB for Songjiang District, Shanghai, which has experienced high migration over the past 25 years. We calibrated the model to local demographic data, TB notifications, and molecular epidemiologic studies. We estimated epidemiological drivers as well as future outcomes of current TB policies and compared this base-case scenario with scenarios describing additional targeted interventions focusing on migrants or vulnerable residents. Results The model captured key demographic and epidemiological features of TB among migrant and resident populations in Songjiang District, Shanghai. Between 2020 and 2035, we estimate that over 60% of TB cases will occur among migrants and that approximately 43% of these cases will result from recent infection. While TB incidence will decline under current policies, we estimate that additional interventions—including active screening and preventive treatment for migrants—could reduce TB incidence by an additional 20% by 2035. Conclusions Migrant-focused TB interventions could produce meaningful health benefits for migrants, as well as for young residents who receive indirect protection as a result of reduced TB transmission in Shanghai. Further studies to measure cost-effectiveness are needed to evaluate the feasibility of these interventions in Shanghai and similar urban centers experiencing high migration volumes. Tuberculosis Internal migration Transmission-dynamic modeling China Public health policy Medicine R Jian Kang verfasserin aut Liping Lu verfasserin aut Xiaoqin Guo verfasserin aut Xin Shen verfasserin aut Ted Cohen verfasserin aut Nicolas A. Menzies verfasserin aut In BMC Medicine BMC, 2003 19(2021), 1, Seite 14 (DE-627)377271225 (DE-600)2131669-7 17417015 nnns volume:19 year:2021 number:1 pages:14 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-021-01968-9 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/e61b87ffb8784f4bb5ac490e030ba832 kostenfrei https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-021-01968-9 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1741-7015 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 19 2021 1 14
allfieldsSound	10.1186/s12916-021-01968-9 doi (DE-627)DOAJ000889008 (DE-599)DOAJe61b87ffb8784f4bb5ac490e030ba832 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Chongguang Yang verfasserin aut The positive externalities of migrant-based TB control strategy in a Chinese urban population with internal migration: a transmission-dynamic modeling study 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract Background Large-scale rural-to-urban migration has changed the epidemiology of tuberculosis (TB) in large Chinese cities. We estimated the contribution of TB importation, reactivation of latent infection, and local transmission to new TB cases in Shanghai, and compared the potential impact of intervention options. Methods We developed a transmission dynamic model of TB for Songjiang District, Shanghai, which has experienced high migration over the past 25 years. We calibrated the model to local demographic data, TB notifications, and molecular epidemiologic studies. We estimated epidemiological drivers as well as future outcomes of current TB policies and compared this base-case scenario with scenarios describing additional targeted interventions focusing on migrants or vulnerable residents. Results The model captured key demographic and epidemiological features of TB among migrant and resident populations in Songjiang District, Shanghai. Between 2020 and 2035, we estimate that over 60% of TB cases will occur among migrants and that approximately 43% of these cases will result from recent infection. While TB incidence will decline under current policies, we estimate that additional interventions—including active screening and preventive treatment for migrants—could reduce TB incidence by an additional 20% by 2035. Conclusions Migrant-focused TB interventions could produce meaningful health benefits for migrants, as well as for young residents who receive indirect protection as a result of reduced TB transmission in Shanghai. Further studies to measure cost-effectiveness are needed to evaluate the feasibility of these interventions in Shanghai and similar urban centers experiencing high migration volumes. Tuberculosis Internal migration Transmission-dynamic modeling China Public health policy Medicine R Jian Kang verfasserin aut Liping Lu verfasserin aut Xiaoqin Guo verfasserin aut Xin Shen verfasserin aut Ted Cohen verfasserin aut Nicolas A. Menzies verfasserin aut In BMC Medicine BMC, 2003 19(2021), 1, Seite 14 (DE-627)377271225 (DE-600)2131669-7 17417015 nnns volume:19 year:2021 number:1 pages:14 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-021-01968-9 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/e61b87ffb8784f4bb5ac490e030ba832 kostenfrei https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-021-01968-9 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1741-7015 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 19 2021 1 14
language	English
source	In BMC Medicine 19(2021), 1, Seite 14 volume:19 year:2021 number:1 pages:14
sourceStr	In BMC Medicine 19(2021), 1, Seite 14 volume:19 year:2021 number:1 pages:14
format_phy_str_mv	Article
institution	findex.gbv.de
topic_facet	Tuberculosis Internal migration Transmission-dynamic modeling China Public health policy Medicine R
isfreeaccess_bool	true
container_title	BMC Medicine
authorswithroles_txt_mv	Chongguang Yang @@aut@@ Jian Kang @@aut@@ Liping Lu @@aut@@ Xiaoqin Guo @@aut@@ Xin Shen @@aut@@ Ted Cohen @@aut@@ Nicolas A. Menzies @@aut@@
publishDateDaySort_date	2021-01-01T00:00:00Z
hierarchy_top_id	377271225
id	DOAJ000889008
language_de	englisch
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author	Chongguang Yang
spellingShingle	Chongguang Yang misc Tuberculosis misc Internal migration misc Transmission-dynamic modeling misc China misc Public health policy misc Medicine misc R The positive externalities of migrant-based TB control strategy in a Chinese urban population with internal migration: a transmission-dynamic modeling study
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topic_title	The positive externalities of migrant-based TB control strategy in a Chinese urban population with internal migration: a transmission-dynamic modeling study Tuberculosis Internal migration Transmission-dynamic modeling China Public health policy
topic	misc Tuberculosis misc Internal migration misc Transmission-dynamic modeling misc China misc Public health policy misc Medicine misc R
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title	The positive externalities of migrant-based TB control strategy in a Chinese urban population with internal migration: a transmission-dynamic modeling study
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title_full	The positive externalities of migrant-based TB control strategy in a Chinese urban population with internal migration: a transmission-dynamic modeling study
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author_browse	Chongguang Yang Jian Kang Liping Lu Xiaoqin Guo Xin Shen Ted Cohen Nicolas A. Menzies
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title_sort	positive externalities of migrant-based tb control strategy in a chinese urban population with internal migration: a transmission-dynamic modeling study
title_auth	The positive externalities of migrant-based TB control strategy in a Chinese urban population with internal migration: a transmission-dynamic modeling study
abstract	Abstract Background Large-scale rural-to-urban migration has changed the epidemiology of tuberculosis (TB) in large Chinese cities. We estimated the contribution of TB importation, reactivation of latent infection, and local transmission to new TB cases in Shanghai, and compared the potential impact of intervention options. Methods We developed a transmission dynamic model of TB for Songjiang District, Shanghai, which has experienced high migration over the past 25 years. We calibrated the model to local demographic data, TB notifications, and molecular epidemiologic studies. We estimated epidemiological drivers as well as future outcomes of current TB policies and compared this base-case scenario with scenarios describing additional targeted interventions focusing on migrants or vulnerable residents. Results The model captured key demographic and epidemiological features of TB among migrant and resident populations in Songjiang District, Shanghai. Between 2020 and 2035, we estimate that over 60% of TB cases will occur among migrants and that approximately 43% of these cases will result from recent infection. While TB incidence will decline under current policies, we estimate that additional interventions—including active screening and preventive treatment for migrants—could reduce TB incidence by an additional 20% by 2035. Conclusions Migrant-focused TB interventions could produce meaningful health benefits for migrants, as well as for young residents who receive indirect protection as a result of reduced TB transmission in Shanghai. Further studies to measure cost-effectiveness are needed to evaluate the feasibility of these interventions in Shanghai and similar urban centers experiencing high migration volumes.
abstractGer	Abstract Background Large-scale rural-to-urban migration has changed the epidemiology of tuberculosis (TB) in large Chinese cities. We estimated the contribution of TB importation, reactivation of latent infection, and local transmission to new TB cases in Shanghai, and compared the potential impact of intervention options. Methods We developed a transmission dynamic model of TB for Songjiang District, Shanghai, which has experienced high migration over the past 25 years. We calibrated the model to local demographic data, TB notifications, and molecular epidemiologic studies. We estimated epidemiological drivers as well as future outcomes of current TB policies and compared this base-case scenario with scenarios describing additional targeted interventions focusing on migrants or vulnerable residents. Results The model captured key demographic and epidemiological features of TB among migrant and resident populations in Songjiang District, Shanghai. Between 2020 and 2035, we estimate that over 60% of TB cases will occur among migrants and that approximately 43% of these cases will result from recent infection. While TB incidence will decline under current policies, we estimate that additional interventions—including active screening and preventive treatment for migrants—could reduce TB incidence by an additional 20% by 2035. Conclusions Migrant-focused TB interventions could produce meaningful health benefits for migrants, as well as for young residents who receive indirect protection as a result of reduced TB transmission in Shanghai. Further studies to measure cost-effectiveness are needed to evaluate the feasibility of these interventions in Shanghai and similar urban centers experiencing high migration volumes.
abstract_unstemmed	Abstract Background Large-scale rural-to-urban migration has changed the epidemiology of tuberculosis (TB) in large Chinese cities. We estimated the contribution of TB importation, reactivation of latent infection, and local transmission to new TB cases in Shanghai, and compared the potential impact of intervention options. Methods We developed a transmission dynamic model of TB for Songjiang District, Shanghai, which has experienced high migration over the past 25 years. We calibrated the model to local demographic data, TB notifications, and molecular epidemiologic studies. We estimated epidemiological drivers as well as future outcomes of current TB policies and compared this base-case scenario with scenarios describing additional targeted interventions focusing on migrants or vulnerable residents. Results The model captured key demographic and epidemiological features of TB among migrant and resident populations in Songjiang District, Shanghai. Between 2020 and 2035, we estimate that over 60% of TB cases will occur among migrants and that approximately 43% of these cases will result from recent infection. While TB incidence will decline under current policies, we estimate that additional interventions—including active screening and preventive treatment for migrants—could reduce TB incidence by an additional 20% by 2035. Conclusions Migrant-focused TB interventions could produce meaningful health benefits for migrants, as well as for young residents who receive indirect protection as a result of reduced TB transmission in Shanghai. Further studies to measure cost-effectiveness are needed to evaluate the feasibility of these interventions in Shanghai and similar urban centers experiencing high migration volumes.
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title_short	The positive externalities of migrant-based TB control strategy in a Chinese urban population with internal migration: a transmission-dynamic modeling study
url	https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-021-01968-9 https://doaj.org/article/e61b87ffb8784f4bb5ac490e030ba832 https://doaj.org/toc/1741-7015
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The positive externalities of migrant-based TB control strategy in a Chinese urban population with internal migration: a transmission-dynamic modeling study

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