Modelling travel time uncertainty in urban networks based on floating taxi data

Abstract The prediction of the uncertainty of route travel time predictions for all possible routes in an urban road network is of importance for example for logistics. Such predictions need to take the essential features of the data set as well as the underlying traffic dynamics into account.In thi...
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Gespeichert in:

Autor*in:	Dietmar Bauer [verfasserIn] Mirsad Tulic [verfasserIn] Wolfgang Scherrer [verfasserIn]

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2019

Schlagwörter:	Taxi floating car Travel time uncertainty Travel time prediction

Übergeordnetes Werk:	In: European Transport Research Review - SpringerOpen, 2010, 11(2019), 1, Seite 15
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:11 ; year:2019 ; number:1 ; pages:15

Links:	Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Journal toc Journal toc

DOI / URN:	10.1186/s12544-019-0381-5

Katalog-ID:	DOAJ00913901X

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520			\|a Abstract The prediction of the uncertainty of route travel time predictions for all possible routes in an urban road network is of importance for example for logistics. Such predictions need to take the essential features of the data set as well as the underlying traffic dynamics into account.In this paper a large floating taxi data set is used in order to derive predictions of route travel time uncertainty based on link travel time uncertainty predictions. Prediction errors, that is actual travel times minus predicted travel times, are differentiated from model errors, that is measured travel times minus predicted travel times. These two errors are related, but not identical, as model errors contain measurement noise while the prediction errors do not. Detailed models for the variance of the link travel time prediction errors as well as the correlation between the model errors for different links are derived. The models are validated in depth using two different validation data sets.Estimates for the variance of prediction errors are obtained. The standardized model error distributions show a remarkable stability, such that modelling the variance appears to be sufficient for quantifying the uncertainty of the model errors.Furthermore we show that the model errors for adjacent links are highly correlated but correlations fade with increasing distance. Additionally usage of the road network plays a role with high correlation for links along common routes and low correlations for links along seldom used routes. We assume identical features for the prediction errors which is partly validated based on additional data.The paper provides a way to estimate the complete distribution of route travel time prediction errors for any given route in the street network.
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allfields	10.1186/s12544-019-0381-5 doi (DE-627)DOAJ00913901X (DE-599)DOAJc4f294ab453143509fa62cb6aa3a9c02 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng TA1001-1280 HE1-9990 Dietmar Bauer verfasserin aut Modelling travel time uncertainty in urban networks based on floating taxi data 2019 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract The prediction of the uncertainty of route travel time predictions for all possible routes in an urban road network is of importance for example for logistics. Such predictions need to take the essential features of the data set as well as the underlying traffic dynamics into account.In this paper a large floating taxi data set is used in order to derive predictions of route travel time uncertainty based on link travel time uncertainty predictions. Prediction errors, that is actual travel times minus predicted travel times, are differentiated from model errors, that is measured travel times minus predicted travel times. These two errors are related, but not identical, as model errors contain measurement noise while the prediction errors do not. Detailed models for the variance of the link travel time prediction errors as well as the correlation between the model errors for different links are derived. The models are validated in depth using two different validation data sets.Estimates for the variance of prediction errors are obtained. The standardized model error distributions show a remarkable stability, such that modelling the variance appears to be sufficient for quantifying the uncertainty of the model errors.Furthermore we show that the model errors for adjacent links are highly correlated but correlations fade with increasing distance. Additionally usage of the road network plays a role with high correlation for links along common routes and low correlations for links along seldom used routes. We assume identical features for the prediction errors which is partly validated based on additional data.The paper provides a way to estimate the complete distribution of route travel time prediction errors for any given route in the street network. Taxi floating car Travel time uncertainty Travel time prediction Transportation engineering Transportation and communications Mirsad Tulic verfasserin aut Wolfgang Scherrer verfasserin aut In European Transport Research Review SpringerOpen, 2010 11(2019), 1, Seite 15 (DE-627)588777951 (DE-600)2471004-0 18668887 nnns volume:11 year:2019 number:1 pages:15 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12544-019-0381-5 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/c4f294ab453143509fa62cb6aa3a9c02 kostenfrei http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12544-019-0381-5 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1867-0717 Journal toc kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1866-8887 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_26 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4392 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 11 2019 1 15
spelling	10.1186/s12544-019-0381-5 doi (DE-627)DOAJ00913901X (DE-599)DOAJc4f294ab453143509fa62cb6aa3a9c02 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng TA1001-1280 HE1-9990 Dietmar Bauer verfasserin aut Modelling travel time uncertainty in urban networks based on floating taxi data 2019 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract The prediction of the uncertainty of route travel time predictions for all possible routes in an urban road network is of importance for example for logistics. Such predictions need to take the essential features of the data set as well as the underlying traffic dynamics into account.In this paper a large floating taxi data set is used in order to derive predictions of route travel time uncertainty based on link travel time uncertainty predictions. Prediction errors, that is actual travel times minus predicted travel times, are differentiated from model errors, that is measured travel times minus predicted travel times. These two errors are related, but not identical, as model errors contain measurement noise while the prediction errors do not. Detailed models for the variance of the link travel time prediction errors as well as the correlation between the model errors for different links are derived. The models are validated in depth using two different validation data sets.Estimates for the variance of prediction errors are obtained. The standardized model error distributions show a remarkable stability, such that modelling the variance appears to be sufficient for quantifying the uncertainty of the model errors.Furthermore we show that the model errors for adjacent links are highly correlated but correlations fade with increasing distance. Additionally usage of the road network plays a role with high correlation for links along common routes and low correlations for links along seldom used routes. We assume identical features for the prediction errors which is partly validated based on additional data.The paper provides a way to estimate the complete distribution of route travel time prediction errors for any given route in the street network. Taxi floating car Travel time uncertainty Travel time prediction Transportation engineering Transportation and communications Mirsad Tulic verfasserin aut Wolfgang Scherrer verfasserin aut In European Transport Research Review SpringerOpen, 2010 11(2019), 1, Seite 15 (DE-627)588777951 (DE-600)2471004-0 18668887 nnns volume:11 year:2019 number:1 pages:15 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12544-019-0381-5 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/c4f294ab453143509fa62cb6aa3a9c02 kostenfrei http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12544-019-0381-5 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1867-0717 Journal toc kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1866-8887 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_26 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4392 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 11 2019 1 15
allfields_unstemmed	10.1186/s12544-019-0381-5 doi (DE-627)DOAJ00913901X (DE-599)DOAJc4f294ab453143509fa62cb6aa3a9c02 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng TA1001-1280 HE1-9990 Dietmar Bauer verfasserin aut Modelling travel time uncertainty in urban networks based on floating taxi data 2019 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract The prediction of the uncertainty of route travel time predictions for all possible routes in an urban road network is of importance for example for logistics. Such predictions need to take the essential features of the data set as well as the underlying traffic dynamics into account.In this paper a large floating taxi data set is used in order to derive predictions of route travel time uncertainty based on link travel time uncertainty predictions. Prediction errors, that is actual travel times minus predicted travel times, are differentiated from model errors, that is measured travel times minus predicted travel times. These two errors are related, but not identical, as model errors contain measurement noise while the prediction errors do not. Detailed models for the variance of the link travel time prediction errors as well as the correlation between the model errors for different links are derived. The models are validated in depth using two different validation data sets.Estimates for the variance of prediction errors are obtained. The standardized model error distributions show a remarkable stability, such that modelling the variance appears to be sufficient for quantifying the uncertainty of the model errors.Furthermore we show that the model errors for adjacent links are highly correlated but correlations fade with increasing distance. Additionally usage of the road network plays a role with high correlation for links along common routes and low correlations for links along seldom used routes. We assume identical features for the prediction errors which is partly validated based on additional data.The paper provides a way to estimate the complete distribution of route travel time prediction errors for any given route in the street network. Taxi floating car Travel time uncertainty Travel time prediction Transportation engineering Transportation and communications Mirsad Tulic verfasserin aut Wolfgang Scherrer verfasserin aut In European Transport Research Review SpringerOpen, 2010 11(2019), 1, Seite 15 (DE-627)588777951 (DE-600)2471004-0 18668887 nnns volume:11 year:2019 number:1 pages:15 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12544-019-0381-5 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/c4f294ab453143509fa62cb6aa3a9c02 kostenfrei http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12544-019-0381-5 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1867-0717 Journal toc kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1866-8887 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_26 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4392 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 11 2019 1 15
allfieldsGer	10.1186/s12544-019-0381-5 doi (DE-627)DOAJ00913901X (DE-599)DOAJc4f294ab453143509fa62cb6aa3a9c02 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng TA1001-1280 HE1-9990 Dietmar Bauer verfasserin aut Modelling travel time uncertainty in urban networks based on floating taxi data 2019 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract The prediction of the uncertainty of route travel time predictions for all possible routes in an urban road network is of importance for example for logistics. Such predictions need to take the essential features of the data set as well as the underlying traffic dynamics into account.In this paper a large floating taxi data set is used in order to derive predictions of route travel time uncertainty based on link travel time uncertainty predictions. Prediction errors, that is actual travel times minus predicted travel times, are differentiated from model errors, that is measured travel times minus predicted travel times. These two errors are related, but not identical, as model errors contain measurement noise while the prediction errors do not. Detailed models for the variance of the link travel time prediction errors as well as the correlation between the model errors for different links are derived. The models are validated in depth using two different validation data sets.Estimates for the variance of prediction errors are obtained. The standardized model error distributions show a remarkable stability, such that modelling the variance appears to be sufficient for quantifying the uncertainty of the model errors.Furthermore we show that the model errors for adjacent links are highly correlated but correlations fade with increasing distance. Additionally usage of the road network plays a role with high correlation for links along common routes and low correlations for links along seldom used routes. We assume identical features for the prediction errors which is partly validated based on additional data.The paper provides a way to estimate the complete distribution of route travel time prediction errors for any given route in the street network. Taxi floating car Travel time uncertainty Travel time prediction Transportation engineering Transportation and communications Mirsad Tulic verfasserin aut Wolfgang Scherrer verfasserin aut In European Transport Research Review SpringerOpen, 2010 11(2019), 1, Seite 15 (DE-627)588777951 (DE-600)2471004-0 18668887 nnns volume:11 year:2019 number:1 pages:15 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12544-019-0381-5 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/c4f294ab453143509fa62cb6aa3a9c02 kostenfrei http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12544-019-0381-5 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1867-0717 Journal toc kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1866-8887 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_26 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4392 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 11 2019 1 15
allfieldsSound	10.1186/s12544-019-0381-5 doi (DE-627)DOAJ00913901X (DE-599)DOAJc4f294ab453143509fa62cb6aa3a9c02 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng TA1001-1280 HE1-9990 Dietmar Bauer verfasserin aut Modelling travel time uncertainty in urban networks based on floating taxi data 2019 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract The prediction of the uncertainty of route travel time predictions for all possible routes in an urban road network is of importance for example for logistics. Such predictions need to take the essential features of the data set as well as the underlying traffic dynamics into account.In this paper a large floating taxi data set is used in order to derive predictions of route travel time uncertainty based on link travel time uncertainty predictions. Prediction errors, that is actual travel times minus predicted travel times, are differentiated from model errors, that is measured travel times minus predicted travel times. These two errors are related, but not identical, as model errors contain measurement noise while the prediction errors do not. Detailed models for the variance of the link travel time prediction errors as well as the correlation between the model errors for different links are derived. The models are validated in depth using two different validation data sets.Estimates for the variance of prediction errors are obtained. The standardized model error distributions show a remarkable stability, such that modelling the variance appears to be sufficient for quantifying the uncertainty of the model errors.Furthermore we show that the model errors for adjacent links are highly correlated but correlations fade with increasing distance. Additionally usage of the road network plays a role with high correlation for links along common routes and low correlations for links along seldom used routes. We assume identical features for the prediction errors which is partly validated based on additional data.The paper provides a way to estimate the complete distribution of route travel time prediction errors for any given route in the street network. Taxi floating car Travel time uncertainty Travel time prediction Transportation engineering Transportation and communications Mirsad Tulic verfasserin aut Wolfgang Scherrer verfasserin aut In European Transport Research Review SpringerOpen, 2010 11(2019), 1, Seite 15 (DE-627)588777951 (DE-600)2471004-0 18668887 nnns volume:11 year:2019 number:1 pages:15 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12544-019-0381-5 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/c4f294ab453143509fa62cb6aa3a9c02 kostenfrei http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12544-019-0381-5 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1867-0717 Journal toc kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1866-8887 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_26 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4392 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 11 2019 1 15
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callnumber-first	T - Technology
author	Dietmar Bauer
spellingShingle	Dietmar Bauer misc TA1001-1280 misc HE1-9990 misc Taxi floating car misc Travel time uncertainty misc Travel time prediction misc Transportation engineering misc Transportation and communications Modelling travel time uncertainty in urban networks based on floating taxi data
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title	Modelling travel time uncertainty in urban networks based on floating taxi data
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title_full	Modelling travel time uncertainty in urban networks based on floating taxi data
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title_sort	modelling travel time uncertainty in urban networks based on floating taxi data
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title_auth	Modelling travel time uncertainty in urban networks based on floating taxi data
abstract	Abstract The prediction of the uncertainty of route travel time predictions for all possible routes in an urban road network is of importance for example for logistics. Such predictions need to take the essential features of the data set as well as the underlying traffic dynamics into account.In this paper a large floating taxi data set is used in order to derive predictions of route travel time uncertainty based on link travel time uncertainty predictions. Prediction errors, that is actual travel times minus predicted travel times, are differentiated from model errors, that is measured travel times minus predicted travel times. These two errors are related, but not identical, as model errors contain measurement noise while the prediction errors do not. Detailed models for the variance of the link travel time prediction errors as well as the correlation between the model errors for different links are derived. The models are validated in depth using two different validation data sets.Estimates for the variance of prediction errors are obtained. The standardized model error distributions show a remarkable stability, such that modelling the variance appears to be sufficient for quantifying the uncertainty of the model errors.Furthermore we show that the model errors for adjacent links are highly correlated but correlations fade with increasing distance. Additionally usage of the road network plays a role with high correlation for links along common routes and low correlations for links along seldom used routes. We assume identical features for the prediction errors which is partly validated based on additional data.The paper provides a way to estimate the complete distribution of route travel time prediction errors for any given route in the street network.
abstractGer	Abstract The prediction of the uncertainty of route travel time predictions for all possible routes in an urban road network is of importance for example for logistics. Such predictions need to take the essential features of the data set as well as the underlying traffic dynamics into account.In this paper a large floating taxi data set is used in order to derive predictions of route travel time uncertainty based on link travel time uncertainty predictions. Prediction errors, that is actual travel times minus predicted travel times, are differentiated from model errors, that is measured travel times minus predicted travel times. These two errors are related, but not identical, as model errors contain measurement noise while the prediction errors do not. Detailed models for the variance of the link travel time prediction errors as well as the correlation between the model errors for different links are derived. The models are validated in depth using two different validation data sets.Estimates for the variance of prediction errors are obtained. The standardized model error distributions show a remarkable stability, such that modelling the variance appears to be sufficient for quantifying the uncertainty of the model errors.Furthermore we show that the model errors for adjacent links are highly correlated but correlations fade with increasing distance. Additionally usage of the road network plays a role with high correlation for links along common routes and low correlations for links along seldom used routes. We assume identical features for the prediction errors which is partly validated based on additional data.The paper provides a way to estimate the complete distribution of route travel time prediction errors for any given route in the street network.
abstract_unstemmed	Abstract The prediction of the uncertainty of route travel time predictions for all possible routes in an urban road network is of importance for example for logistics. Such predictions need to take the essential features of the data set as well as the underlying traffic dynamics into account.In this paper a large floating taxi data set is used in order to derive predictions of route travel time uncertainty based on link travel time uncertainty predictions. Prediction errors, that is actual travel times minus predicted travel times, are differentiated from model errors, that is measured travel times minus predicted travel times. These two errors are related, but not identical, as model errors contain measurement noise while the prediction errors do not. Detailed models for the variance of the link travel time prediction errors as well as the correlation between the model errors for different links are derived. The models are validated in depth using two different validation data sets.Estimates for the variance of prediction errors are obtained. The standardized model error distributions show a remarkable stability, such that modelling the variance appears to be sufficient for quantifying the uncertainty of the model errors.Furthermore we show that the model errors for adjacent links are highly correlated but correlations fade with increasing distance. Additionally usage of the road network plays a role with high correlation for links along common routes and low correlations for links along seldom used routes. We assume identical features for the prediction errors which is partly validated based on additional data.The paper provides a way to estimate the complete distribution of route travel time prediction errors for any given route in the street network.
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title_short	Modelling travel time uncertainty in urban networks based on floating taxi data
url	https://doi.org/10.1186/s12544-019-0381-5 https://doaj.org/article/c4f294ab453143509fa62cb6aa3a9c02 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12544-019-0381-5 https://doaj.org/toc/1867-0717 https://doaj.org/toc/1866-8887
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up_date	2024-07-03T22:11:32.995Z
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The standardized model error distributions show a remarkable stability, such that modelling the variance appears to be sufficient for quantifying the uncertainty of the model errors.Furthermore we show that the model errors for adjacent links are highly correlated but correlations fade with increasing distance. Additionally usage of the road network plays a role with high correlation for links along common routes and low correlations for links along seldom used routes. 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Modelling travel time uncertainty in urban networks based on floating taxi data

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