Quantitative assessment of the risk of airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection: Prospective and retrospective applications

Airborne transmission is a recognized pathway of contagion; however, it is rarely quantitatively evaluated. The numerous outbreaks that have occurred during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic are putting a demand on researchers to develop approaches capable of both predicting contagion in closed environments (...
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Autor*in:	G. Buonanno [verfasserIn] L. Morawska [verfasserIn] L. Stabile [verfasserIn]

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2020

Schlagwörter:	SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) assessment Virus airborne transmission Indoor Ventilation Coronavirus

Übergeordnetes Werk:	In: Environment International - Elsevier, 2019, 145(2020), Seite 106112-
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:145 ; year:2020 ; pages:106112-

Links:	Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Journal toc

DOI / URN:	10.1016/j.envint.2020.106112

Katalog-ID:	DOAJ00914255X

Internformat


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allfields_unstemmed	10.1016/j.envint.2020.106112 doi (DE-627)DOAJ00914255X (DE-599)DOAJ00c48c2dd10b49bb9a27c4c56d68ec8a DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng GE1-350 G. Buonanno verfasserin aut Quantitative assessment of the risk of airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection: Prospective and retrospective applications 2020 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Airborne transmission is a recognized pathway of contagion; however, it is rarely quantitatively evaluated. The numerous outbreaks that have occurred during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic are putting a demand on researchers to develop approaches capable of both predicting contagion in closed environments (predictive assessment) and analyzing previous infections (retrospective assessment).This study presents a novel approach for quantitative assessment of the individual infection risk of susceptible subjects exposed in indoor microenvironments in the presence of an asymptomatic infected SARS-CoV-2 subject. The application of a Monte Carlo method allowed the risk for an exposed healthy subject to be evaluated or, starting from an acceptable risk, the maximum exposure time. We applied the proposed approach to four distinct scenarios for a prospective assessment, highlighting that, in order to guarantee an acceptable risk of 10−3 for exposed subjects in naturally ventilated indoor environments, the exposure time could be well below one hour. Such maximum exposure time clearly depends on the viral load emission of the infected subject and on the exposure conditions; thus, longer exposure times were estimated for mechanically ventilated indoor environments and lower viral load emissions. The proposed approach was used for retrospective assessment of documented outbreaks in a restaurant in Guangzhou (China) and at a choir rehearsal in Mount Vernon (USA), showing that, in both cases, the high attack rate values can be justified only assuming the airborne transmission as the main route of contagion. Moreover, we show that such outbreaks are not caused by the rare presence of a superspreader, but can be likely explained by the co-existence of conditions, including emission and exposure parameters, leading to a highly probable event, which can be defined as a “superspreading event”. SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) assessment Virus airborne transmission Indoor Ventilation Coronavirus Environmental sciences L. Morawska verfasserin aut L. Stabile verfasserin aut In Environment International Elsevier, 2019 145(2020), Seite 106112- (DE-627)306580829 (DE-600)1497569-5 01604120 nnns volume:145 year:2020 pages:106112- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2020.106112 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/00c48c2dd10b49bb9a27c4c56d68ec8a kostenfrei http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412020320675 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/0160-4120 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_165 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 145 2020 106112-
allfieldsGer	10.1016/j.envint.2020.106112 doi (DE-627)DOAJ00914255X (DE-599)DOAJ00c48c2dd10b49bb9a27c4c56d68ec8a DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng GE1-350 G. Buonanno verfasserin aut Quantitative assessment of the risk of airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection: Prospective and retrospective applications 2020 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Airborne transmission is a recognized pathway of contagion; however, it is rarely quantitatively evaluated. The numerous outbreaks that have occurred during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic are putting a demand on researchers to develop approaches capable of both predicting contagion in closed environments (predictive assessment) and analyzing previous infections (retrospective assessment).This study presents a novel approach for quantitative assessment of the individual infection risk of susceptible subjects exposed in indoor microenvironments in the presence of an asymptomatic infected SARS-CoV-2 subject. The application of a Monte Carlo method allowed the risk for an exposed healthy subject to be evaluated or, starting from an acceptable risk, the maximum exposure time. We applied the proposed approach to four distinct scenarios for a prospective assessment, highlighting that, in order to guarantee an acceptable risk of 10−3 for exposed subjects in naturally ventilated indoor environments, the exposure time could be well below one hour. Such maximum exposure time clearly depends on the viral load emission of the infected subject and on the exposure conditions; thus, longer exposure times were estimated for mechanically ventilated indoor environments and lower viral load emissions. The proposed approach was used for retrospective assessment of documented outbreaks in a restaurant in Guangzhou (China) and at a choir rehearsal in Mount Vernon (USA), showing that, in both cases, the high attack rate values can be justified only assuming the airborne transmission as the main route of contagion. Moreover, we show that such outbreaks are not caused by the rare presence of a superspreader, but can be likely explained by the co-existence of conditions, including emission and exposure parameters, leading to a highly probable event, which can be defined as a “superspreading event”. SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) assessment Virus airborne transmission Indoor Ventilation Coronavirus Environmental sciences L. Morawska verfasserin aut L. Stabile verfasserin aut In Environment International Elsevier, 2019 145(2020), Seite 106112- (DE-627)306580829 (DE-600)1497569-5 01604120 nnns volume:145 year:2020 pages:106112- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2020.106112 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/00c48c2dd10b49bb9a27c4c56d68ec8a kostenfrei http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412020320675 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/0160-4120 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_165 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 145 2020 106112-
allfieldsSound	10.1016/j.envint.2020.106112 doi (DE-627)DOAJ00914255X (DE-599)DOAJ00c48c2dd10b49bb9a27c4c56d68ec8a DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng GE1-350 G. Buonanno verfasserin aut Quantitative assessment of the risk of airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection: Prospective and retrospective applications 2020 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Airborne transmission is a recognized pathway of contagion; however, it is rarely quantitatively evaluated. The numerous outbreaks that have occurred during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic are putting a demand on researchers to develop approaches capable of both predicting contagion in closed environments (predictive assessment) and analyzing previous infections (retrospective assessment).This study presents a novel approach for quantitative assessment of the individual infection risk of susceptible subjects exposed in indoor microenvironments in the presence of an asymptomatic infected SARS-CoV-2 subject. The application of a Monte Carlo method allowed the risk for an exposed healthy subject to be evaluated or, starting from an acceptable risk, the maximum exposure time. We applied the proposed approach to four distinct scenarios for a prospective assessment, highlighting that, in order to guarantee an acceptable risk of 10−3 for exposed subjects in naturally ventilated indoor environments, the exposure time could be well below one hour. Such maximum exposure time clearly depends on the viral load emission of the infected subject and on the exposure conditions; thus, longer exposure times were estimated for mechanically ventilated indoor environments and lower viral load emissions. The proposed approach was used for retrospective assessment of documented outbreaks in a restaurant in Guangzhou (China) and at a choir rehearsal in Mount Vernon (USA), showing that, in both cases, the high attack rate values can be justified only assuming the airborne transmission as the main route of contagion. Moreover, we show that such outbreaks are not caused by the rare presence of a superspreader, but can be likely explained by the co-existence of conditions, including emission and exposure parameters, leading to a highly probable event, which can be defined as a “superspreading event”. SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) assessment Virus airborne transmission Indoor Ventilation Coronavirus Environmental sciences L. Morawska verfasserin aut L. Stabile verfasserin aut In Environment International Elsevier, 2019 145(2020), Seite 106112- (DE-627)306580829 (DE-600)1497569-5 01604120 nnns volume:145 year:2020 pages:106112- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2020.106112 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/00c48c2dd10b49bb9a27c4c56d68ec8a kostenfrei http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412020320675 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/0160-4120 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_165 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 145 2020 106112-
language	English
source	In Environment International 145(2020), Seite 106112- volume:145 year:2020 pages:106112-
sourceStr	In Environment International 145(2020), Seite 106112- volume:145 year:2020 pages:106112-
format_phy_str_mv	Article
institution	findex.gbv.de
topic_facet	SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) assessment Virus airborne transmission Indoor Ventilation Coronavirus Environmental sciences
isfreeaccess_bool	true
container_title	Environment International
authorswithroles_txt_mv	G. Buonanno @@aut@@ L. Morawska @@aut@@ L. Stabile @@aut@@
publishDateDaySort_date	2020-01-01T00:00:00Z
hierarchy_top_id	306580829
id	DOAJ00914255X
language_de	englisch
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callnumber-first	G - Geography, Anthropology, Recreation
author	G. Buonanno
spellingShingle	G. Buonanno misc GE1-350 misc SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) assessment misc Virus airborne transmission misc Indoor misc Ventilation misc Coronavirus misc Environmental sciences Quantitative assessment of the risk of airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection: Prospective and retrospective applications
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topic_title	GE1-350 Quantitative assessment of the risk of airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection: Prospective and retrospective applications SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) assessment Virus airborne transmission Indoor Ventilation Coronavirus
topic	misc GE1-350 misc SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) assessment misc Virus airborne transmission misc Indoor misc Ventilation misc Coronavirus misc Environmental sciences
topic_unstemmed	misc GE1-350 misc SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) assessment misc Virus airborne transmission misc Indoor misc Ventilation misc Coronavirus misc Environmental sciences
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title	Quantitative assessment of the risk of airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection: Prospective and retrospective applications
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title_full	Quantitative assessment of the risk of airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection: Prospective and retrospective applications
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author_browse	G. Buonanno L. Morawska L. Stabile
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title_sort	quantitative assessment of the risk of airborne transmission of sars-cov-2 infection: prospective and retrospective applications
callnumber	GE1-350
title_auth	Quantitative assessment of the risk of airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection: Prospective and retrospective applications
abstract	Airborne transmission is a recognized pathway of contagion; however, it is rarely quantitatively evaluated. The numerous outbreaks that have occurred during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic are putting a demand on researchers to develop approaches capable of both predicting contagion in closed environments (predictive assessment) and analyzing previous infections (retrospective assessment).This study presents a novel approach for quantitative assessment of the individual infection risk of susceptible subjects exposed in indoor microenvironments in the presence of an asymptomatic infected SARS-CoV-2 subject. The application of a Monte Carlo method allowed the risk for an exposed healthy subject to be evaluated or, starting from an acceptable risk, the maximum exposure time. We applied the proposed approach to four distinct scenarios for a prospective assessment, highlighting that, in order to guarantee an acceptable risk of 10−3 for exposed subjects in naturally ventilated indoor environments, the exposure time could be well below one hour. Such maximum exposure time clearly depends on the viral load emission of the infected subject and on the exposure conditions; thus, longer exposure times were estimated for mechanically ventilated indoor environments and lower viral load emissions. The proposed approach was used for retrospective assessment of documented outbreaks in a restaurant in Guangzhou (China) and at a choir rehearsal in Mount Vernon (USA), showing that, in both cases, the high attack rate values can be justified only assuming the airborne transmission as the main route of contagion. Moreover, we show that such outbreaks are not caused by the rare presence of a superspreader, but can be likely explained by the co-existence of conditions, including emission and exposure parameters, leading to a highly probable event, which can be defined as a “superspreading event”.
abstractGer	Airborne transmission is a recognized pathway of contagion; however, it is rarely quantitatively evaluated. The numerous outbreaks that have occurred during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic are putting a demand on researchers to develop approaches capable of both predicting contagion in closed environments (predictive assessment) and analyzing previous infections (retrospective assessment).This study presents a novel approach for quantitative assessment of the individual infection risk of susceptible subjects exposed in indoor microenvironments in the presence of an asymptomatic infected SARS-CoV-2 subject. The application of a Monte Carlo method allowed the risk for an exposed healthy subject to be evaluated or, starting from an acceptable risk, the maximum exposure time. We applied the proposed approach to four distinct scenarios for a prospective assessment, highlighting that, in order to guarantee an acceptable risk of 10−3 for exposed subjects in naturally ventilated indoor environments, the exposure time could be well below one hour. Such maximum exposure time clearly depends on the viral load emission of the infected subject and on the exposure conditions; thus, longer exposure times were estimated for mechanically ventilated indoor environments and lower viral load emissions. The proposed approach was used for retrospective assessment of documented outbreaks in a restaurant in Guangzhou (China) and at a choir rehearsal in Mount Vernon (USA), showing that, in both cases, the high attack rate values can be justified only assuming the airborne transmission as the main route of contagion. Moreover, we show that such outbreaks are not caused by the rare presence of a superspreader, but can be likely explained by the co-existence of conditions, including emission and exposure parameters, leading to a highly probable event, which can be defined as a “superspreading event”.
abstract_unstemmed	Airborne transmission is a recognized pathway of contagion; however, it is rarely quantitatively evaluated. The numerous outbreaks that have occurred during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic are putting a demand on researchers to develop approaches capable of both predicting contagion in closed environments (predictive assessment) and analyzing previous infections (retrospective assessment).This study presents a novel approach for quantitative assessment of the individual infection risk of susceptible subjects exposed in indoor microenvironments in the presence of an asymptomatic infected SARS-CoV-2 subject. The application of a Monte Carlo method allowed the risk for an exposed healthy subject to be evaluated or, starting from an acceptable risk, the maximum exposure time. We applied the proposed approach to four distinct scenarios for a prospective assessment, highlighting that, in order to guarantee an acceptable risk of 10−3 for exposed subjects in naturally ventilated indoor environments, the exposure time could be well below one hour. Such maximum exposure time clearly depends on the viral load emission of the infected subject and on the exposure conditions; thus, longer exposure times were estimated for mechanically ventilated indoor environments and lower viral load emissions. The proposed approach was used for retrospective assessment of documented outbreaks in a restaurant in Guangzhou (China) and at a choir rehearsal in Mount Vernon (USA), showing that, in both cases, the high attack rate values can be justified only assuming the airborne transmission as the main route of contagion. Moreover, we show that such outbreaks are not caused by the rare presence of a superspreader, but can be likely explained by the co-existence of conditions, including emission and exposure parameters, leading to a highly probable event, which can be defined as a “superspreading event”.
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title_short	Quantitative assessment of the risk of airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection: Prospective and retrospective applications
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