When probabilistic seismic hazard climbs volcanoes: the Mt. Etna case, Italy – Part 1: Model components for sources parameterization
The volcanic region of Mt. Etna (Sicily, Italy) represents a perfect lab for testing innovative approaches to seismic hazard assessment. This is largely due to the long record of historical and recent observations of seismic and tectonic phenomena, the high quality of various geophysical monitoring...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Gespeichert in:
| Autor*in: |
R. Azzaro [verfasserIn] G. Barberi [verfasserIn] S. D'Amico [verfasserIn] B. Pace [verfasserIn] L. Peruzza [verfasserIn] T. Tuvè [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
E-Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2017 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences - Copernicus Publications, 2004, 17(2017), Seite 1981-1998 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:17 ; year:2017 ; pages:1981-1998 |
| Links: |
Link aufrufen |
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| DOI / URN: |
10.5194/nhess-17-1981-2017 |
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| Katalog-ID: |
DOAJ016122852 |
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| 520 | |a The volcanic region of Mt. Etna (Sicily, Italy) represents a perfect lab for testing innovative approaches to seismic hazard assessment. This is largely due to the long record of historical and recent observations of seismic and tectonic phenomena, the high quality of various geophysical monitoring and particularly the rapid geodynamics clearly demonstrate some seismotectonic processes. We present here the model components and the procedures adopted for defining seismic sources to be used in a new generation of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), the first results and maps of which are presented in a companion paper, Peruzza et al. (2017). The sources include, with increasing complexity, seismic zones, individual faults and gridded point sources that are obtained by integrating geological field data with long and short earthquake datasets (the historical macroseismic catalogue, which covers about 3 centuries, and a high-quality instrumental location database for the last decades). The analysis of the frequency–magnitude distribution identifies two main fault systems within the volcanic complex featuring different seismic rates that are controlled essentially by volcano-tectonic processes. We discuss the variability of the mean occurrence times of major earthquakes along the main Etnean faults by using an historical approach and a purely geologic method. We derive a magnitude–size scaling relationship specifically for this volcanic area, which has been implemented into a recently developed software tool – FiSH (Pace et al., 2016) – that we use to calculate the characteristic magnitudes and the related mean recurrence times expected for each fault. Results suggest that for the Mt. Etna area, the traditional assumptions of uniform and Poissonian seismicity can be relaxed; a time-dependent fault-based modeling, joined with a 3-D imaging of volcano-tectonic sources depicted by the recent instrumental seismicity, can therefore be implemented in PSHA maps. They can be relevant for the retrofitting of the existing building stock and for driving risk reduction interventions. These analyses do not account for regional <i<M</i< > 6 seismogenic sources which dominate the hazard over long return times (≥ 500 years). | ||
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10.5194/nhess-17-1981-2017 doi (DE-627)DOAJ016122852 (DE-599)DOAJ2bde5910d6004226ae6392a825bade4b DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng TD1-1066 GE1-350 QE1-996.5 R. Azzaro verfasserin aut When probabilistic seismic hazard climbs volcanoes: the Mt. Etna case, Italy – Part 1: Model components for sources parameterization 2017 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier The volcanic region of Mt. Etna (Sicily, Italy) represents a perfect lab for testing innovative approaches to seismic hazard assessment. This is largely due to the long record of historical and recent observations of seismic and tectonic phenomena, the high quality of various geophysical monitoring and particularly the rapid geodynamics clearly demonstrate some seismotectonic processes. We present here the model components and the procedures adopted for defining seismic sources to be used in a new generation of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), the first results and maps of which are presented in a companion paper, Peruzza et al. (2017). The sources include, with increasing complexity, seismic zones, individual faults and gridded point sources that are obtained by integrating geological field data with long and short earthquake datasets (the historical macroseismic catalogue, which covers about 3 centuries, and a high-quality instrumental location database for the last decades). The analysis of the frequency–magnitude distribution identifies two main fault systems within the volcanic complex featuring different seismic rates that are controlled essentially by volcano-tectonic processes. We discuss the variability of the mean occurrence times of major earthquakes along the main Etnean faults by using an historical approach and a purely geologic method. We derive a magnitude–size scaling relationship specifically for this volcanic area, which has been implemented into a recently developed software tool – FiSH (Pace et al., 2016) – that we use to calculate the characteristic magnitudes and the related mean recurrence times expected for each fault. Results suggest that for the Mt. Etna area, the traditional assumptions of uniform and Poissonian seismicity can be relaxed; a time-dependent fault-based modeling, joined with a 3-D imaging of volcano-tectonic sources depicted by the recent instrumental seismicity, can therefore be implemented in PSHA maps. They can be relevant for the retrofitting of the existing building stock and for driving risk reduction interventions. These analyses do not account for regional <i<M</i< > 6 seismogenic sources which dominate the hazard over long return times (≥ 500 years). Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences Geology G. Barberi verfasserin aut S. D'Amico verfasserin aut B. Pace verfasserin aut L. Peruzza verfasserin aut T. Tuvè verfasserin aut In Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Copernicus Publications, 2004 17(2017), Seite 1981-1998 (DE-627)338766928 (DE-600)2064587-9 16849981 nnns volume:17 year:2017 pages:1981-1998 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1981-2017 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/2bde5910d6004226ae6392a825bade4b kostenfrei https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/17/1981/2017/nhess-17-1981-2017.pdf kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1561-8633 Journal toc kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1684-9981 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_381 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 17 2017 1981-1998 |
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10.5194/nhess-17-1981-2017 doi (DE-627)DOAJ016122852 (DE-599)DOAJ2bde5910d6004226ae6392a825bade4b DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng TD1-1066 GE1-350 QE1-996.5 R. Azzaro verfasserin aut When probabilistic seismic hazard climbs volcanoes: the Mt. Etna case, Italy – Part 1: Model components for sources parameterization 2017 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier The volcanic region of Mt. Etna (Sicily, Italy) represents a perfect lab for testing innovative approaches to seismic hazard assessment. This is largely due to the long record of historical and recent observations of seismic and tectonic phenomena, the high quality of various geophysical monitoring and particularly the rapid geodynamics clearly demonstrate some seismotectonic processes. We present here the model components and the procedures adopted for defining seismic sources to be used in a new generation of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), the first results and maps of which are presented in a companion paper, Peruzza et al. (2017). The sources include, with increasing complexity, seismic zones, individual faults and gridded point sources that are obtained by integrating geological field data with long and short earthquake datasets (the historical macroseismic catalogue, which covers about 3 centuries, and a high-quality instrumental location database for the last decades). The analysis of the frequency–magnitude distribution identifies two main fault systems within the volcanic complex featuring different seismic rates that are controlled essentially by volcano-tectonic processes. We discuss the variability of the mean occurrence times of major earthquakes along the main Etnean faults by using an historical approach and a purely geologic method. We derive a magnitude–size scaling relationship specifically for this volcanic area, which has been implemented into a recently developed software tool – FiSH (Pace et al., 2016) – that we use to calculate the characteristic magnitudes and the related mean recurrence times expected for each fault. Results suggest that for the Mt. Etna area, the traditional assumptions of uniform and Poissonian seismicity can be relaxed; a time-dependent fault-based modeling, joined with a 3-D imaging of volcano-tectonic sources depicted by the recent instrumental seismicity, can therefore be implemented in PSHA maps. They can be relevant for the retrofitting of the existing building stock and for driving risk reduction interventions. These analyses do not account for regional <i<M</i< > 6 seismogenic sources which dominate the hazard over long return times (≥ 500 years). Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences Geology G. Barberi verfasserin aut S. D'Amico verfasserin aut B. Pace verfasserin aut L. Peruzza verfasserin aut T. Tuvè verfasserin aut In Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Copernicus Publications, 2004 17(2017), Seite 1981-1998 (DE-627)338766928 (DE-600)2064587-9 16849981 nnns volume:17 year:2017 pages:1981-1998 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1981-2017 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/2bde5910d6004226ae6392a825bade4b kostenfrei https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/17/1981/2017/nhess-17-1981-2017.pdf kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1561-8633 Journal toc kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1684-9981 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_381 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 17 2017 1981-1998 |
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10.5194/nhess-17-1981-2017 doi (DE-627)DOAJ016122852 (DE-599)DOAJ2bde5910d6004226ae6392a825bade4b DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng TD1-1066 GE1-350 QE1-996.5 R. Azzaro verfasserin aut When probabilistic seismic hazard climbs volcanoes: the Mt. Etna case, Italy – Part 1: Model components for sources parameterization 2017 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier The volcanic region of Mt. Etna (Sicily, Italy) represents a perfect lab for testing innovative approaches to seismic hazard assessment. This is largely due to the long record of historical and recent observations of seismic and tectonic phenomena, the high quality of various geophysical monitoring and particularly the rapid geodynamics clearly demonstrate some seismotectonic processes. We present here the model components and the procedures adopted for defining seismic sources to be used in a new generation of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), the first results and maps of which are presented in a companion paper, Peruzza et al. (2017). The sources include, with increasing complexity, seismic zones, individual faults and gridded point sources that are obtained by integrating geological field data with long and short earthquake datasets (the historical macroseismic catalogue, which covers about 3 centuries, and a high-quality instrumental location database for the last decades). The analysis of the frequency–magnitude distribution identifies two main fault systems within the volcanic complex featuring different seismic rates that are controlled essentially by volcano-tectonic processes. We discuss the variability of the mean occurrence times of major earthquakes along the main Etnean faults by using an historical approach and a purely geologic method. We derive a magnitude–size scaling relationship specifically for this volcanic area, which has been implemented into a recently developed software tool – FiSH (Pace et al., 2016) – that we use to calculate the characteristic magnitudes and the related mean recurrence times expected for each fault. Results suggest that for the Mt. Etna area, the traditional assumptions of uniform and Poissonian seismicity can be relaxed; a time-dependent fault-based modeling, joined with a 3-D imaging of volcano-tectonic sources depicted by the recent instrumental seismicity, can therefore be implemented in PSHA maps. They can be relevant for the retrofitting of the existing building stock and for driving risk reduction interventions. These analyses do not account for regional <i<M</i< > 6 seismogenic sources which dominate the hazard over long return times (≥ 500 years). Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences Geology G. Barberi verfasserin aut S. D'Amico verfasserin aut B. Pace verfasserin aut L. Peruzza verfasserin aut T. Tuvè verfasserin aut In Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Copernicus Publications, 2004 17(2017), Seite 1981-1998 (DE-627)338766928 (DE-600)2064587-9 16849981 nnns volume:17 year:2017 pages:1981-1998 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1981-2017 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/2bde5910d6004226ae6392a825bade4b kostenfrei https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/17/1981/2017/nhess-17-1981-2017.pdf kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1561-8633 Journal toc kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1684-9981 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_381 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 17 2017 1981-1998 |
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10.5194/nhess-17-1981-2017 doi (DE-627)DOAJ016122852 (DE-599)DOAJ2bde5910d6004226ae6392a825bade4b DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng TD1-1066 GE1-350 QE1-996.5 R. Azzaro verfasserin aut When probabilistic seismic hazard climbs volcanoes: the Mt. Etna case, Italy – Part 1: Model components for sources parameterization 2017 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier The volcanic region of Mt. Etna (Sicily, Italy) represents a perfect lab for testing innovative approaches to seismic hazard assessment. This is largely due to the long record of historical and recent observations of seismic and tectonic phenomena, the high quality of various geophysical monitoring and particularly the rapid geodynamics clearly demonstrate some seismotectonic processes. We present here the model components and the procedures adopted for defining seismic sources to be used in a new generation of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), the first results and maps of which are presented in a companion paper, Peruzza et al. (2017). The sources include, with increasing complexity, seismic zones, individual faults and gridded point sources that are obtained by integrating geological field data with long and short earthquake datasets (the historical macroseismic catalogue, which covers about 3 centuries, and a high-quality instrumental location database for the last decades). The analysis of the frequency–magnitude distribution identifies two main fault systems within the volcanic complex featuring different seismic rates that are controlled essentially by volcano-tectonic processes. We discuss the variability of the mean occurrence times of major earthquakes along the main Etnean faults by using an historical approach and a purely geologic method. We derive a magnitude–size scaling relationship specifically for this volcanic area, which has been implemented into a recently developed software tool – FiSH (Pace et al., 2016) – that we use to calculate the characteristic magnitudes and the related mean recurrence times expected for each fault. Results suggest that for the Mt. Etna area, the traditional assumptions of uniform and Poissonian seismicity can be relaxed; a time-dependent fault-based modeling, joined with a 3-D imaging of volcano-tectonic sources depicted by the recent instrumental seismicity, can therefore be implemented in PSHA maps. They can be relevant for the retrofitting of the existing building stock and for driving risk reduction interventions. These analyses do not account for regional <i<M</i< > 6 seismogenic sources which dominate the hazard over long return times (≥ 500 years). Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences Geology G. Barberi verfasserin aut S. D'Amico verfasserin aut B. Pace verfasserin aut L. Peruzza verfasserin aut T. Tuvè verfasserin aut In Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Copernicus Publications, 2004 17(2017), Seite 1981-1998 (DE-627)338766928 (DE-600)2064587-9 16849981 nnns volume:17 year:2017 pages:1981-1998 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1981-2017 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/2bde5910d6004226ae6392a825bade4b kostenfrei https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/17/1981/2017/nhess-17-1981-2017.pdf kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1561-8633 Journal toc kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1684-9981 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_381 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 17 2017 1981-1998 |
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When probabilistic seismic hazard climbs volcanoes: the Mt. Etna case, Italy – Part 1: Model components for sources parameterization |
| abstract |
The volcanic region of Mt. Etna (Sicily, Italy) represents a perfect lab for testing innovative approaches to seismic hazard assessment. This is largely due to the long record of historical and recent observations of seismic and tectonic phenomena, the high quality of various geophysical monitoring and particularly the rapid geodynamics clearly demonstrate some seismotectonic processes. We present here the model components and the procedures adopted for defining seismic sources to be used in a new generation of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), the first results and maps of which are presented in a companion paper, Peruzza et al. (2017). The sources include, with increasing complexity, seismic zones, individual faults and gridded point sources that are obtained by integrating geological field data with long and short earthquake datasets (the historical macroseismic catalogue, which covers about 3 centuries, and a high-quality instrumental location database for the last decades). The analysis of the frequency–magnitude distribution identifies two main fault systems within the volcanic complex featuring different seismic rates that are controlled essentially by volcano-tectonic processes. We discuss the variability of the mean occurrence times of major earthquakes along the main Etnean faults by using an historical approach and a purely geologic method. We derive a magnitude–size scaling relationship specifically for this volcanic area, which has been implemented into a recently developed software tool – FiSH (Pace et al., 2016) – that we use to calculate the characteristic magnitudes and the related mean recurrence times expected for each fault. Results suggest that for the Mt. Etna area, the traditional assumptions of uniform and Poissonian seismicity can be relaxed; a time-dependent fault-based modeling, joined with a 3-D imaging of volcano-tectonic sources depicted by the recent instrumental seismicity, can therefore be implemented in PSHA maps. They can be relevant for the retrofitting of the existing building stock and for driving risk reduction interventions. These analyses do not account for regional <i<M</i< > 6 seismogenic sources which dominate the hazard over long return times (≥ 500 years). |
| abstractGer |
The volcanic region of Mt. Etna (Sicily, Italy) represents a perfect lab for testing innovative approaches to seismic hazard assessment. This is largely due to the long record of historical and recent observations of seismic and tectonic phenomena, the high quality of various geophysical monitoring and particularly the rapid geodynamics clearly demonstrate some seismotectonic processes. We present here the model components and the procedures adopted for defining seismic sources to be used in a new generation of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), the first results and maps of which are presented in a companion paper, Peruzza et al. (2017). The sources include, with increasing complexity, seismic zones, individual faults and gridded point sources that are obtained by integrating geological field data with long and short earthquake datasets (the historical macroseismic catalogue, which covers about 3 centuries, and a high-quality instrumental location database for the last decades). The analysis of the frequency–magnitude distribution identifies two main fault systems within the volcanic complex featuring different seismic rates that are controlled essentially by volcano-tectonic processes. We discuss the variability of the mean occurrence times of major earthquakes along the main Etnean faults by using an historical approach and a purely geologic method. We derive a magnitude–size scaling relationship specifically for this volcanic area, which has been implemented into a recently developed software tool – FiSH (Pace et al., 2016) – that we use to calculate the characteristic magnitudes and the related mean recurrence times expected for each fault. Results suggest that for the Mt. Etna area, the traditional assumptions of uniform and Poissonian seismicity can be relaxed; a time-dependent fault-based modeling, joined with a 3-D imaging of volcano-tectonic sources depicted by the recent instrumental seismicity, can therefore be implemented in PSHA maps. They can be relevant for the retrofitting of the existing building stock and for driving risk reduction interventions. These analyses do not account for regional <i<M</i< > 6 seismogenic sources which dominate the hazard over long return times (≥ 500 years). |
| abstract_unstemmed |
The volcanic region of Mt. Etna (Sicily, Italy) represents a perfect lab for testing innovative approaches to seismic hazard assessment. This is largely due to the long record of historical and recent observations of seismic and tectonic phenomena, the high quality of various geophysical monitoring and particularly the rapid geodynamics clearly demonstrate some seismotectonic processes. We present here the model components and the procedures adopted for defining seismic sources to be used in a new generation of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), the first results and maps of which are presented in a companion paper, Peruzza et al. (2017). The sources include, with increasing complexity, seismic zones, individual faults and gridded point sources that are obtained by integrating geological field data with long and short earthquake datasets (the historical macroseismic catalogue, which covers about 3 centuries, and a high-quality instrumental location database for the last decades). The analysis of the frequency–magnitude distribution identifies two main fault systems within the volcanic complex featuring different seismic rates that are controlled essentially by volcano-tectonic processes. We discuss the variability of the mean occurrence times of major earthquakes along the main Etnean faults by using an historical approach and a purely geologic method. We derive a magnitude–size scaling relationship specifically for this volcanic area, which has been implemented into a recently developed software tool – FiSH (Pace et al., 2016) – that we use to calculate the characteristic magnitudes and the related mean recurrence times expected for each fault. Results suggest that for the Mt. Etna area, the traditional assumptions of uniform and Poissonian seismicity can be relaxed; a time-dependent fault-based modeling, joined with a 3-D imaging of volcano-tectonic sources depicted by the recent instrumental seismicity, can therefore be implemented in PSHA maps. They can be relevant for the retrofitting of the existing building stock and for driving risk reduction interventions. These analyses do not account for regional <i<M</i< > 6 seismogenic sources which dominate the hazard over long return times (≥ 500 years). |
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| title_short |
When probabilistic seismic hazard climbs volcanoes: the Mt. Etna case, Italy – Part 1: Model components for sources parameterization |
| url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1981-2017 https://doaj.org/article/2bde5910d6004226ae6392a825bade4b https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/17/1981/2017/nhess-17-1981-2017.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1561-8633 https://doaj.org/toc/1684-9981 |
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| author2 |
G. Barberi S. D'Amico B. Pace L. Peruzza T. Tuvè |
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G. Barberi S. D'Amico B. Pace L. Peruzza T. Tuvè |
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| up_date |
2024-07-03T19:07:00.875Z |
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