Neural Network Ensemble Based Approach for 2D-Interval Prediction of Solar Photovoltaic Power

Solar energy generated from PhotoVoltaic (PV) systems is one of the most promising types of renewable energy. However, it is highly variable as it depends on the solar irradiance and other meteorological factors. This variability creates difficulties for the large-scale integration of PV power in th...
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Autor*in:	Mashud Rana [verfasserIn] Irena Koprinska [verfasserIn]

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2016

Schlagwörter:	solar power prediction interval forecasts 2D-interval forecasts ensembles of neural networks mutual information support vector regression

Übergeordnetes Werk:	In: Energies - MDPI AG, 2008, 9(2016), 10, p 829
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:9 ; year:2016 ; number:10, p 829

Links:	Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Journal toc

DOI / URN:	10.3390/en9100829

Katalog-ID:	DOAJ030123445

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520			\|a Solar energy generated from PhotoVoltaic (PV) systems is one of the most promising types of renewable energy. However, it is highly variable as it depends on the solar irradiance and other meteorological factors. This variability creates difficulties for the large-scale integration of PV power in the electricity grid and requires accurate forecasting of the electricity generated by PV systems. In this paper we consider 2D-interval forecasts, where the goal is to predict summary statistics for the distribution of the PV power values in a future time interval. 2D-interval forecasts have been recently introduced, and they are more suitable than point forecasts for applications where the predicted variable has a high variability. We propose a method called NNE2D that combines variable selection based on mutual information and an ensemble of neural networks, to compute 2D-interval forecasts, where the two interval boundaries are expressed in terms of percentiles. NNE2D was evaluated for univariate prediction of Australian solar PV power data for two years. The results show that it is a promising method, outperforming persistence baselines and other methods used for comparison in terms of accuracy and coverage probability.
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allfields	10.3390/en9100829 doi (DE-627)DOAJ030123445 (DE-599)DOAJ5011af4e807546edbfe68e6fb0f42a18 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Mashud Rana verfasserin aut Neural Network Ensemble Based Approach for 2D-Interval Prediction of Solar Photovoltaic Power 2016 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Solar energy generated from PhotoVoltaic (PV) systems is one of the most promising types of renewable energy. However, it is highly variable as it depends on the solar irradiance and other meteorological factors. This variability creates difficulties for the large-scale integration of PV power in the electricity grid and requires accurate forecasting of the electricity generated by PV systems. In this paper we consider 2D-interval forecasts, where the goal is to predict summary statistics for the distribution of the PV power values in a future time interval. 2D-interval forecasts have been recently introduced, and they are more suitable than point forecasts for applications where the predicted variable has a high variability. We propose a method called NNE2D that combines variable selection based on mutual information and an ensemble of neural networks, to compute 2D-interval forecasts, where the two interval boundaries are expressed in terms of percentiles. NNE2D was evaluated for univariate prediction of Australian solar PV power data for two years. The results show that it is a promising method, outperforming persistence baselines and other methods used for comparison in terms of accuracy and coverage probability. solar power prediction interval forecasts 2D-interval forecasts ensembles of neural networks mutual information support vector regression Technology T Irena Koprinska verfasserin aut In Energies MDPI AG, 2008 9(2016), 10, p 829 (DE-627)572083742 (DE-600)2437446-5 19961073 nnns volume:9 year:2016 number:10, p 829 https://doi.org/10.3390/en9100829 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/5011af4e807546edbfe68e6fb0f42a18 kostenfrei http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/9/10/829 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1996-1073 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 9 2016 10, p 829
spelling	10.3390/en9100829 doi (DE-627)DOAJ030123445 (DE-599)DOAJ5011af4e807546edbfe68e6fb0f42a18 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Mashud Rana verfasserin aut Neural Network Ensemble Based Approach for 2D-Interval Prediction of Solar Photovoltaic Power 2016 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Solar energy generated from PhotoVoltaic (PV) systems is one of the most promising types of renewable energy. However, it is highly variable as it depends on the solar irradiance and other meteorological factors. This variability creates difficulties for the large-scale integration of PV power in the electricity grid and requires accurate forecasting of the electricity generated by PV systems. In this paper we consider 2D-interval forecasts, where the goal is to predict summary statistics for the distribution of the PV power values in a future time interval. 2D-interval forecasts have been recently introduced, and they are more suitable than point forecasts for applications where the predicted variable has a high variability. We propose a method called NNE2D that combines variable selection based on mutual information and an ensemble of neural networks, to compute 2D-interval forecasts, where the two interval boundaries are expressed in terms of percentiles. NNE2D was evaluated for univariate prediction of Australian solar PV power data for two years. The results show that it is a promising method, outperforming persistence baselines and other methods used for comparison in terms of accuracy and coverage probability. solar power prediction interval forecasts 2D-interval forecasts ensembles of neural networks mutual information support vector regression Technology T Irena Koprinska verfasserin aut In Energies MDPI AG, 2008 9(2016), 10, p 829 (DE-627)572083742 (DE-600)2437446-5 19961073 nnns volume:9 year:2016 number:10, p 829 https://doi.org/10.3390/en9100829 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/5011af4e807546edbfe68e6fb0f42a18 kostenfrei http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/9/10/829 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1996-1073 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 9 2016 10, p 829
allfields_unstemmed	10.3390/en9100829 doi (DE-627)DOAJ030123445 (DE-599)DOAJ5011af4e807546edbfe68e6fb0f42a18 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Mashud Rana verfasserin aut Neural Network Ensemble Based Approach for 2D-Interval Prediction of Solar Photovoltaic Power 2016 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Solar energy generated from PhotoVoltaic (PV) systems is one of the most promising types of renewable energy. However, it is highly variable as it depends on the solar irradiance and other meteorological factors. This variability creates difficulties for the large-scale integration of PV power in the electricity grid and requires accurate forecasting of the electricity generated by PV systems. In this paper we consider 2D-interval forecasts, where the goal is to predict summary statistics for the distribution of the PV power values in a future time interval. 2D-interval forecasts have been recently introduced, and they are more suitable than point forecasts for applications where the predicted variable has a high variability. We propose a method called NNE2D that combines variable selection based on mutual information and an ensemble of neural networks, to compute 2D-interval forecasts, where the two interval boundaries are expressed in terms of percentiles. NNE2D was evaluated for univariate prediction of Australian solar PV power data for two years. The results show that it is a promising method, outperforming persistence baselines and other methods used for comparison in terms of accuracy and coverage probability. solar power prediction interval forecasts 2D-interval forecasts ensembles of neural networks mutual information support vector regression Technology T Irena Koprinska verfasserin aut In Energies MDPI AG, 2008 9(2016), 10, p 829 (DE-627)572083742 (DE-600)2437446-5 19961073 nnns volume:9 year:2016 number:10, p 829 https://doi.org/10.3390/en9100829 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/5011af4e807546edbfe68e6fb0f42a18 kostenfrei http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/9/10/829 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1996-1073 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 9 2016 10, p 829
allfieldsGer	10.3390/en9100829 doi (DE-627)DOAJ030123445 (DE-599)DOAJ5011af4e807546edbfe68e6fb0f42a18 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Mashud Rana verfasserin aut Neural Network Ensemble Based Approach for 2D-Interval Prediction of Solar Photovoltaic Power 2016 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Solar energy generated from PhotoVoltaic (PV) systems is one of the most promising types of renewable energy. However, it is highly variable as it depends on the solar irradiance and other meteorological factors. This variability creates difficulties for the large-scale integration of PV power in the electricity grid and requires accurate forecasting of the electricity generated by PV systems. In this paper we consider 2D-interval forecasts, where the goal is to predict summary statistics for the distribution of the PV power values in a future time interval. 2D-interval forecasts have been recently introduced, and they are more suitable than point forecasts for applications where the predicted variable has a high variability. We propose a method called NNE2D that combines variable selection based on mutual information and an ensemble of neural networks, to compute 2D-interval forecasts, where the two interval boundaries are expressed in terms of percentiles. NNE2D was evaluated for univariate prediction of Australian solar PV power data for two years. The results show that it is a promising method, outperforming persistence baselines and other methods used for comparison in terms of accuracy and coverage probability. solar power prediction interval forecasts 2D-interval forecasts ensembles of neural networks mutual information support vector regression Technology T Irena Koprinska verfasserin aut In Energies MDPI AG, 2008 9(2016), 10, p 829 (DE-627)572083742 (DE-600)2437446-5 19961073 nnns volume:9 year:2016 number:10, p 829 https://doi.org/10.3390/en9100829 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/5011af4e807546edbfe68e6fb0f42a18 kostenfrei http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/9/10/829 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1996-1073 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 9 2016 10, p 829
allfieldsSound	10.3390/en9100829 doi (DE-627)DOAJ030123445 (DE-599)DOAJ5011af4e807546edbfe68e6fb0f42a18 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Mashud Rana verfasserin aut Neural Network Ensemble Based Approach for 2D-Interval Prediction of Solar Photovoltaic Power 2016 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Solar energy generated from PhotoVoltaic (PV) systems is one of the most promising types of renewable energy. However, it is highly variable as it depends on the solar irradiance and other meteorological factors. This variability creates difficulties for the large-scale integration of PV power in the electricity grid and requires accurate forecasting of the electricity generated by PV systems. In this paper we consider 2D-interval forecasts, where the goal is to predict summary statistics for the distribution of the PV power values in a future time interval. 2D-interval forecasts have been recently introduced, and they are more suitable than point forecasts for applications where the predicted variable has a high variability. We propose a method called NNE2D that combines variable selection based on mutual information and an ensemble of neural networks, to compute 2D-interval forecasts, where the two interval boundaries are expressed in terms of percentiles. NNE2D was evaluated for univariate prediction of Australian solar PV power data for two years. The results show that it is a promising method, outperforming persistence baselines and other methods used for comparison in terms of accuracy and coverage probability. solar power prediction interval forecasts 2D-interval forecasts ensembles of neural networks mutual information support vector regression Technology T Irena Koprinska verfasserin aut In Energies MDPI AG, 2008 9(2016), 10, p 829 (DE-627)572083742 (DE-600)2437446-5 19961073 nnns volume:9 year:2016 number:10, p 829 https://doi.org/10.3390/en9100829 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/5011af4e807546edbfe68e6fb0f42a18 kostenfrei http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/9/10/829 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1996-1073 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 9 2016 10, p 829
language	English
source	In Energies 9(2016), 10, p 829 volume:9 year:2016 number:10, p 829
sourceStr	In Energies 9(2016), 10, p 829 volume:9 year:2016 number:10, p 829
format_phy_str_mv	Article
institution	findex.gbv.de
topic_facet	solar power prediction interval forecasts 2D-interval forecasts ensembles of neural networks mutual information support vector regression Technology T
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container_title	Energies
authorswithroles_txt_mv	Mashud Rana @@aut@@ Irena Koprinska @@aut@@
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author	Mashud Rana
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topic_title	Neural Network Ensemble Based Approach for 2D-Interval Prediction of Solar Photovoltaic Power solar power prediction interval forecasts 2D-interval forecasts ensembles of neural networks mutual information support vector regression
topic	misc solar power prediction misc interval forecasts misc 2D-interval forecasts misc ensembles of neural networks misc mutual information misc support vector regression misc Technology misc T
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title	Neural Network Ensemble Based Approach for 2D-Interval Prediction of Solar Photovoltaic Power
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title_sort	neural network ensemble based approach for 2d-interval prediction of solar photovoltaic power
title_auth	Neural Network Ensemble Based Approach for 2D-Interval Prediction of Solar Photovoltaic Power
abstract	Solar energy generated from PhotoVoltaic (PV) systems is one of the most promising types of renewable energy. However, it is highly variable as it depends on the solar irradiance and other meteorological factors. This variability creates difficulties for the large-scale integration of PV power in the electricity grid and requires accurate forecasting of the electricity generated by PV systems. In this paper we consider 2D-interval forecasts, where the goal is to predict summary statistics for the distribution of the PV power values in a future time interval. 2D-interval forecasts have been recently introduced, and they are more suitable than point forecasts for applications where the predicted variable has a high variability. We propose a method called NNE2D that combines variable selection based on mutual information and an ensemble of neural networks, to compute 2D-interval forecasts, where the two interval boundaries are expressed in terms of percentiles. NNE2D was evaluated for univariate prediction of Australian solar PV power data for two years. The results show that it is a promising method, outperforming persistence baselines and other methods used for comparison in terms of accuracy and coverage probability.
abstractGer	Solar energy generated from PhotoVoltaic (PV) systems is one of the most promising types of renewable energy. However, it is highly variable as it depends on the solar irradiance and other meteorological factors. This variability creates difficulties for the large-scale integration of PV power in the electricity grid and requires accurate forecasting of the electricity generated by PV systems. In this paper we consider 2D-interval forecasts, where the goal is to predict summary statistics for the distribution of the PV power values in a future time interval. 2D-interval forecasts have been recently introduced, and they are more suitable than point forecasts for applications where the predicted variable has a high variability. We propose a method called NNE2D that combines variable selection based on mutual information and an ensemble of neural networks, to compute 2D-interval forecasts, where the two interval boundaries are expressed in terms of percentiles. NNE2D was evaluated for univariate prediction of Australian solar PV power data for two years. The results show that it is a promising method, outperforming persistence baselines and other methods used for comparison in terms of accuracy and coverage probability.
abstract_unstemmed	Solar energy generated from PhotoVoltaic (PV) systems is one of the most promising types of renewable energy. However, it is highly variable as it depends on the solar irradiance and other meteorological factors. This variability creates difficulties for the large-scale integration of PV power in the electricity grid and requires accurate forecasting of the electricity generated by PV systems. In this paper we consider 2D-interval forecasts, where the goal is to predict summary statistics for the distribution of the PV power values in a future time interval. 2D-interval forecasts have been recently introduced, and they are more suitable than point forecasts for applications where the predicted variable has a high variability. We propose a method called NNE2D that combines variable selection based on mutual information and an ensemble of neural networks, to compute 2D-interval forecasts, where the two interval boundaries are expressed in terms of percentiles. NNE2D was evaluated for univariate prediction of Australian solar PV power data for two years. The results show that it is a promising method, outperforming persistence baselines and other methods used for comparison in terms of accuracy and coverage probability.
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title_short	Neural Network Ensemble Based Approach for 2D-Interval Prediction of Solar Photovoltaic Power
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