Assessing the Feasibility of Global Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios

This study explores the critical notion of how feasible it is to achieve long-term mitigation goals to limit global temperature change. It uses a model inter-comparison of three integrated assessment models (TIAM-Grantham, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM and WITCH) harmonized for socio-economic growth drivers using...
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Gespeichert in:

Autor*in:	Ajay Gambhir [verfasserIn] Laurent Drouet [verfasserIn] David McCollum [verfasserIn] Tamaryn Napp [verfasserIn] Dan Bernie [verfasserIn] Adam Hawkes [verfasserIn] Oliver Fricko [verfasserIn] Petr Havlik [verfasserIn] Keywan Riahi [verfasserIn] Valentina Bosetti [verfasserIn] Jason Lowe [verfasserIn]

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2017

Schlagwörter:	climate change mitigation low-carbon scenarios mitigation feasibility

Übergeordnetes Werk:	In: Energies - MDPI AG, 2008, 10(2017), 1, p 89
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:10 ; year:2017 ; number:1, p 89

Links:	Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Journal toc

DOI / URN:	10.3390/en10010089

Katalog-ID:	DOAJ030636809

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allfields	10.3390/en10010089 doi (DE-627)DOAJ030636809 (DE-599)DOAJb81e8ddc3c5e40a2a438d40936204d63 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Ajay Gambhir verfasserin aut Assessing the Feasibility of Global Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios 2017 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier This study explores the critical notion of how feasible it is to achieve long-term mitigation goals to limit global temperature change. It uses a model inter-comparison of three integrated assessment models (TIAM-Grantham, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM and WITCH) harmonized for socio-economic growth drivers using one of the new shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2), to analyse multiple mitigation scenarios aimed at different temperature changes in 2100, in order to assess the model outputs against a range of indicators developed so as to systematically compare the feasibility across scenarios. These indicators include mitigation costs and carbon prices, rates of emissions reductions and energy efficiency improvements, rates of deployment of key low-carbon technologies, reliance on negative emissions, and stranding of power generation assets. The results highlight how much more challenging the 2 °C goal is, when compared to the 2.5–4 °C goals, across virtually all measures of feasibility. Any delay in mitigation or limitation in technology options also renders the 2 °C goal much less feasible across the economic and technical dimensions explored. Finally, a sensitivity analysis indicates that aiming for less than 2 °C is even less plausible, with significantly higher mitigation costs and faster carbon price increases, significantly faster decarbonization and zero-carbon technology deployment rates, earlier occurrence of very significant carbon capture and earlier onset of global net negative emissions. Such a systematic analysis allows a more in-depth consideration of what realistic level of long-term temperature changes can be achieved and what adaptation strategies are therefore required. climate change mitigation low-carbon scenarios mitigation feasibility Technology T Laurent Drouet verfasserin aut David McCollum verfasserin aut Tamaryn Napp verfasserin aut Dan Bernie verfasserin aut Adam Hawkes verfasserin aut Oliver Fricko verfasserin aut Petr Havlik verfasserin aut Keywan Riahi verfasserin aut Valentina Bosetti verfasserin aut Jason Lowe verfasserin aut In Energies MDPI AG, 2008 10(2017), 1, p 89 (DE-627)572083742 (DE-600)2437446-5 19961073 nnns volume:10 year:2017 number:1, p 89 https://doi.org/10.3390/en10010089 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/b81e8ddc3c5e40a2a438d40936204d63 kostenfrei http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/1/89 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1996-1073 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 10 2017 1, p 89
spelling	10.3390/en10010089 doi (DE-627)DOAJ030636809 (DE-599)DOAJb81e8ddc3c5e40a2a438d40936204d63 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Ajay Gambhir verfasserin aut Assessing the Feasibility of Global Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios 2017 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier This study explores the critical notion of how feasible it is to achieve long-term mitigation goals to limit global temperature change. It uses a model inter-comparison of three integrated assessment models (TIAM-Grantham, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM and WITCH) harmonized for socio-economic growth drivers using one of the new shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2), to analyse multiple mitigation scenarios aimed at different temperature changes in 2100, in order to assess the model outputs against a range of indicators developed so as to systematically compare the feasibility across scenarios. These indicators include mitigation costs and carbon prices, rates of emissions reductions and energy efficiency improvements, rates of deployment of key low-carbon technologies, reliance on negative emissions, and stranding of power generation assets. The results highlight how much more challenging the 2 °C goal is, when compared to the 2.5–4 °C goals, across virtually all measures of feasibility. Any delay in mitigation or limitation in technology options also renders the 2 °C goal much less feasible across the economic and technical dimensions explored. Finally, a sensitivity analysis indicates that aiming for less than 2 °C is even less plausible, with significantly higher mitigation costs and faster carbon price increases, significantly faster decarbonization and zero-carbon technology deployment rates, earlier occurrence of very significant carbon capture and earlier onset of global net negative emissions. Such a systematic analysis allows a more in-depth consideration of what realistic level of long-term temperature changes can be achieved and what adaptation strategies are therefore required. climate change mitigation low-carbon scenarios mitigation feasibility Technology T Laurent Drouet verfasserin aut David McCollum verfasserin aut Tamaryn Napp verfasserin aut Dan Bernie verfasserin aut Adam Hawkes verfasserin aut Oliver Fricko verfasserin aut Petr Havlik verfasserin aut Keywan Riahi verfasserin aut Valentina Bosetti verfasserin aut Jason Lowe verfasserin aut In Energies MDPI AG, 2008 10(2017), 1, p 89 (DE-627)572083742 (DE-600)2437446-5 19961073 nnns volume:10 year:2017 number:1, p 89 https://doi.org/10.3390/en10010089 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/b81e8ddc3c5e40a2a438d40936204d63 kostenfrei http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/1/89 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1996-1073 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 10 2017 1, p 89
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allfieldsGer	10.3390/en10010089 doi (DE-627)DOAJ030636809 (DE-599)DOAJb81e8ddc3c5e40a2a438d40936204d63 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Ajay Gambhir verfasserin aut Assessing the Feasibility of Global Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios 2017 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier This study explores the critical notion of how feasible it is to achieve long-term mitigation goals to limit global temperature change. It uses a model inter-comparison of three integrated assessment models (TIAM-Grantham, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM and WITCH) harmonized for socio-economic growth drivers using one of the new shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2), to analyse multiple mitigation scenarios aimed at different temperature changes in 2100, in order to assess the model outputs against a range of indicators developed so as to systematically compare the feasibility across scenarios. These indicators include mitigation costs and carbon prices, rates of emissions reductions and energy efficiency improvements, rates of deployment of key low-carbon technologies, reliance on negative emissions, and stranding of power generation assets. The results highlight how much more challenging the 2 °C goal is, when compared to the 2.5–4 °C goals, across virtually all measures of feasibility. Any delay in mitigation or limitation in technology options also renders the 2 °C goal much less feasible across the economic and technical dimensions explored. Finally, a sensitivity analysis indicates that aiming for less than 2 °C is even less plausible, with significantly higher mitigation costs and faster carbon price increases, significantly faster decarbonization and zero-carbon technology deployment rates, earlier occurrence of very significant carbon capture and earlier onset of global net negative emissions. Such a systematic analysis allows a more in-depth consideration of what realistic level of long-term temperature changes can be achieved and what adaptation strategies are therefore required. climate change mitigation low-carbon scenarios mitigation feasibility Technology T Laurent Drouet verfasserin aut David McCollum verfasserin aut Tamaryn Napp verfasserin aut Dan Bernie verfasserin aut Adam Hawkes verfasserin aut Oliver Fricko verfasserin aut Petr Havlik verfasserin aut Keywan Riahi verfasserin aut Valentina Bosetti verfasserin aut Jason Lowe verfasserin aut In Energies MDPI AG, 2008 10(2017), 1, p 89 (DE-627)572083742 (DE-600)2437446-5 19961073 nnns volume:10 year:2017 number:1, p 89 https://doi.org/10.3390/en10010089 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/b81e8ddc3c5e40a2a438d40936204d63 kostenfrei http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/1/89 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1996-1073 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 10 2017 1, p 89
allfieldsSound	10.3390/en10010089 doi (DE-627)DOAJ030636809 (DE-599)DOAJb81e8ddc3c5e40a2a438d40936204d63 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Ajay Gambhir verfasserin aut Assessing the Feasibility of Global Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios 2017 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier This study explores the critical notion of how feasible it is to achieve long-term mitigation goals to limit global temperature change. It uses a model inter-comparison of three integrated assessment models (TIAM-Grantham, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM and WITCH) harmonized for socio-economic growth drivers using one of the new shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2), to analyse multiple mitigation scenarios aimed at different temperature changes in 2100, in order to assess the model outputs against a range of indicators developed so as to systematically compare the feasibility across scenarios. These indicators include mitigation costs and carbon prices, rates of emissions reductions and energy efficiency improvements, rates of deployment of key low-carbon technologies, reliance on negative emissions, and stranding of power generation assets. The results highlight how much more challenging the 2 °C goal is, when compared to the 2.5–4 °C goals, across virtually all measures of feasibility. Any delay in mitigation or limitation in technology options also renders the 2 °C goal much less feasible across the economic and technical dimensions explored. Finally, a sensitivity analysis indicates that aiming for less than 2 °C is even less plausible, with significantly higher mitigation costs and faster carbon price increases, significantly faster decarbonization and zero-carbon technology deployment rates, earlier occurrence of very significant carbon capture and earlier onset of global net negative emissions. Such a systematic analysis allows a more in-depth consideration of what realistic level of long-term temperature changes can be achieved and what adaptation strategies are therefore required. climate change mitigation low-carbon scenarios mitigation feasibility Technology T Laurent Drouet verfasserin aut David McCollum verfasserin aut Tamaryn Napp verfasserin aut Dan Bernie verfasserin aut Adam Hawkes verfasserin aut Oliver Fricko verfasserin aut Petr Havlik verfasserin aut Keywan Riahi verfasserin aut Valentina Bosetti verfasserin aut Jason Lowe verfasserin aut In Energies MDPI AG, 2008 10(2017), 1, p 89 (DE-627)572083742 (DE-600)2437446-5 19961073 nnns volume:10 year:2017 number:1, p 89 https://doi.org/10.3390/en10010089 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/b81e8ddc3c5e40a2a438d40936204d63 kostenfrei http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/1/89 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1996-1073 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 10 2017 1, p 89
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author	Ajay Gambhir
spellingShingle	Ajay Gambhir misc climate change mitigation misc low-carbon scenarios misc mitigation feasibility misc Technology misc T Assessing the Feasibility of Global Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios
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title_auth	Assessing the Feasibility of Global Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios
abstract	This study explores the critical notion of how feasible it is to achieve long-term mitigation goals to limit global temperature change. It uses a model inter-comparison of three integrated assessment models (TIAM-Grantham, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM and WITCH) harmonized for socio-economic growth drivers using one of the new shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2), to analyse multiple mitigation scenarios aimed at different temperature changes in 2100, in order to assess the model outputs against a range of indicators developed so as to systematically compare the feasibility across scenarios. These indicators include mitigation costs and carbon prices, rates of emissions reductions and energy efficiency improvements, rates of deployment of key low-carbon technologies, reliance on negative emissions, and stranding of power generation assets. The results highlight how much more challenging the 2 °C goal is, when compared to the 2.5–4 °C goals, across virtually all measures of feasibility. Any delay in mitigation or limitation in technology options also renders the 2 °C goal much less feasible across the economic and technical dimensions explored. Finally, a sensitivity analysis indicates that aiming for less than 2 °C is even less plausible, with significantly higher mitigation costs and faster carbon price increases, significantly faster decarbonization and zero-carbon technology deployment rates, earlier occurrence of very significant carbon capture and earlier onset of global net negative emissions. Such a systematic analysis allows a more in-depth consideration of what realistic level of long-term temperature changes can be achieved and what adaptation strategies are therefore required.
abstractGer	This study explores the critical notion of how feasible it is to achieve long-term mitigation goals to limit global temperature change. It uses a model inter-comparison of three integrated assessment models (TIAM-Grantham, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM and WITCH) harmonized for socio-economic growth drivers using one of the new shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2), to analyse multiple mitigation scenarios aimed at different temperature changes in 2100, in order to assess the model outputs against a range of indicators developed so as to systematically compare the feasibility across scenarios. These indicators include mitigation costs and carbon prices, rates of emissions reductions and energy efficiency improvements, rates of deployment of key low-carbon technologies, reliance on negative emissions, and stranding of power generation assets. The results highlight how much more challenging the 2 °C goal is, when compared to the 2.5–4 °C goals, across virtually all measures of feasibility. Any delay in mitigation or limitation in technology options also renders the 2 °C goal much less feasible across the economic and technical dimensions explored. Finally, a sensitivity analysis indicates that aiming for less than 2 °C is even less plausible, with significantly higher mitigation costs and faster carbon price increases, significantly faster decarbonization and zero-carbon technology deployment rates, earlier occurrence of very significant carbon capture and earlier onset of global net negative emissions. Such a systematic analysis allows a more in-depth consideration of what realistic level of long-term temperature changes can be achieved and what adaptation strategies are therefore required.
abstract_unstemmed	This study explores the critical notion of how feasible it is to achieve long-term mitigation goals to limit global temperature change. It uses a model inter-comparison of three integrated assessment models (TIAM-Grantham, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM and WITCH) harmonized for socio-economic growth drivers using one of the new shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2), to analyse multiple mitigation scenarios aimed at different temperature changes in 2100, in order to assess the model outputs against a range of indicators developed so as to systematically compare the feasibility across scenarios. These indicators include mitigation costs and carbon prices, rates of emissions reductions and energy efficiency improvements, rates of deployment of key low-carbon technologies, reliance on negative emissions, and stranding of power generation assets. The results highlight how much more challenging the 2 °C goal is, when compared to the 2.5–4 °C goals, across virtually all measures of feasibility. Any delay in mitigation or limitation in technology options also renders the 2 °C goal much less feasible across the economic and technical dimensions explored. Finally, a sensitivity analysis indicates that aiming for less than 2 °C is even less plausible, with significantly higher mitigation costs and faster carbon price increases, significantly faster decarbonization and zero-carbon technology deployment rates, earlier occurrence of very significant carbon capture and earlier onset of global net negative emissions. Such a systematic analysis allows a more in-depth consideration of what realistic level of long-term temperature changes can be achieved and what adaptation strategies are therefore required.
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title_short	Assessing the Feasibility of Global Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios
url	https://doi.org/10.3390/en10010089 https://doaj.org/article/b81e8ddc3c5e40a2a438d40936204d63 http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/1/89 https://doaj.org/toc/1996-1073
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