Scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil in 2020
Brazilian milk production has grown steadily and in 2004 the country became self-sufficient in dairy production. This article develops possible scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil for the year 2020 in order to contribute to decisions that must be made by stakeholders. A literature revi...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Autor*in: |
Renata Giovinazzo Spers [verfasserIn] James Terence Coulter Wright [verfasserIn] André de Azevedo Amedomar [verfasserIn] |
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Format: |
E-Artikel |
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Sprache: |
Englisch ; Spanisch ; Portugiesisch |
Erschienen: |
2013 |
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Schlagwörter: |
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Übergeordnetes Werk: |
In: RAUSP: Revista de Administração da Universidade de São Paulo - Universidade de São Paulo, 2013, 48(2013), 2, Seite 254-267 |
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Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:48 ; year:2013 ; number:2 ; pages:254-267 |
Links: |
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DOI / URN: |
10.5700/rausp1086 |
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Katalog-ID: |
DOAJ033799237 |
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10.5700/rausp1086 doi (DE-627)DOAJ033799237 (DE-599)DOAJ2a7f05f3f7744cc389ebf7ddd3e920a7 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng spa por HF5001-6182 Renata Giovinazzo Spers verfasserin aut Scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil in 2020 2013 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Brazilian milk production has grown steadily and in 2004 the country became self-sufficient in dairy production. This article develops possible scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil for the year 2020 in order to contribute to decisions that must be made by stakeholders. A literature review on foresight and the use of scenarios was conducted, and a scenario writing approach based on Wright and Spers (2006) was adopted, which includes the use of the Delphi method, Michael Porter's Five Competitive Forces model, Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) (WRIGHT, 1991) and quantitative projections. This methodology provided four scenarios, with quantitative and qualitative elements: two exploratory scenarios ("milk, the new agribusiness star" and "a wasted future"), a most probable scenario ("continuous but uneven growth") and a desired scenario ("competitive family agriculture"). Overall, it is possible to note many market opportunities, as well as niche markets and the strengthening of cooperatives. Future prospects are also favorable to the dairy industry in general, but nearly all scenarios point to a concentration in the industrial sphere. escenarios cadena de producción de leche en Brasil estrategias para el sector de producción de leche Business James Terence Coulter Wright verfasserin aut André de Azevedo Amedomar verfasserin aut In RAUSP: Revista de Administração da Universidade de São Paulo Universidade de São Paulo, 2013 48(2013), 2, Seite 254-267 (DE-627)668309245 (DE-600)2627280-5 19846142 nnns volume:48 year:2013 number:2 pages:254-267 https://doi.org/10.5700/rausp1086 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/2a7f05f3f7744cc389ebf7ddd3e920a7 kostenfrei http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0080-21072013000200006&lng=en&tlng=en kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1984-6142 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 48 2013 2 254-267 |
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10.5700/rausp1086 doi (DE-627)DOAJ033799237 (DE-599)DOAJ2a7f05f3f7744cc389ebf7ddd3e920a7 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng spa por HF5001-6182 Renata Giovinazzo Spers verfasserin aut Scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil in 2020 2013 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Brazilian milk production has grown steadily and in 2004 the country became self-sufficient in dairy production. This article develops possible scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil for the year 2020 in order to contribute to decisions that must be made by stakeholders. A literature review on foresight and the use of scenarios was conducted, and a scenario writing approach based on Wright and Spers (2006) was adopted, which includes the use of the Delphi method, Michael Porter's Five Competitive Forces model, Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) (WRIGHT, 1991) and quantitative projections. This methodology provided four scenarios, with quantitative and qualitative elements: two exploratory scenarios ("milk, the new agribusiness star" and "a wasted future"), a most probable scenario ("continuous but uneven growth") and a desired scenario ("competitive family agriculture"). Overall, it is possible to note many market opportunities, as well as niche markets and the strengthening of cooperatives. Future prospects are also favorable to the dairy industry in general, but nearly all scenarios point to a concentration in the industrial sphere. escenarios cadena de producción de leche en Brasil estrategias para el sector de producción de leche Business James Terence Coulter Wright verfasserin aut André de Azevedo Amedomar verfasserin aut In RAUSP: Revista de Administração da Universidade de São Paulo Universidade de São Paulo, 2013 48(2013), 2, Seite 254-267 (DE-627)668309245 (DE-600)2627280-5 19846142 nnns volume:48 year:2013 number:2 pages:254-267 https://doi.org/10.5700/rausp1086 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/2a7f05f3f7744cc389ebf7ddd3e920a7 kostenfrei http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0080-21072013000200006&lng=en&tlng=en kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1984-6142 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 48 2013 2 254-267 |
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10.5700/rausp1086 doi (DE-627)DOAJ033799237 (DE-599)DOAJ2a7f05f3f7744cc389ebf7ddd3e920a7 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng spa por HF5001-6182 Renata Giovinazzo Spers verfasserin aut Scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil in 2020 2013 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Brazilian milk production has grown steadily and in 2004 the country became self-sufficient in dairy production. This article develops possible scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil for the year 2020 in order to contribute to decisions that must be made by stakeholders. A literature review on foresight and the use of scenarios was conducted, and a scenario writing approach based on Wright and Spers (2006) was adopted, which includes the use of the Delphi method, Michael Porter's Five Competitive Forces model, Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) (WRIGHT, 1991) and quantitative projections. This methodology provided four scenarios, with quantitative and qualitative elements: two exploratory scenarios ("milk, the new agribusiness star" and "a wasted future"), a most probable scenario ("continuous but uneven growth") and a desired scenario ("competitive family agriculture"). Overall, it is possible to note many market opportunities, as well as niche markets and the strengthening of cooperatives. Future prospects are also favorable to the dairy industry in general, but nearly all scenarios point to a concentration in the industrial sphere. escenarios cadena de producción de leche en Brasil estrategias para el sector de producción de leche Business James Terence Coulter Wright verfasserin aut André de Azevedo Amedomar verfasserin aut In RAUSP: Revista de Administração da Universidade de São Paulo Universidade de São Paulo, 2013 48(2013), 2, Seite 254-267 (DE-627)668309245 (DE-600)2627280-5 19846142 nnns volume:48 year:2013 number:2 pages:254-267 https://doi.org/10.5700/rausp1086 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/2a7f05f3f7744cc389ebf7ddd3e920a7 kostenfrei http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0080-21072013000200006&lng=en&tlng=en kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1984-6142 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 48 2013 2 254-267 |
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Brazilian milk production has grown steadily and in 2004 the country became self-sufficient in dairy production. This article develops possible scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil for the year 2020 in order to contribute to decisions that must be made by stakeholders. A literature review on foresight and the use of scenarios was conducted, and a scenario writing approach based on Wright and Spers (2006) was adopted, which includes the use of the Delphi method, Michael Porter's Five Competitive Forces model, Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) (WRIGHT, 1991) and quantitative projections. This methodology provided four scenarios, with quantitative and qualitative elements: two exploratory scenarios ("milk, the new agribusiness star" and "a wasted future"), a most probable scenario ("continuous but uneven growth") and a desired scenario ("competitive family agriculture"). Overall, it is possible to note many market opportunities, as well as niche markets and the strengthening of cooperatives. Future prospects are also favorable to the dairy industry in general, but nearly all scenarios point to a concentration in the industrial sphere. |
abstractGer |
Brazilian milk production has grown steadily and in 2004 the country became self-sufficient in dairy production. This article develops possible scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil for the year 2020 in order to contribute to decisions that must be made by stakeholders. A literature review on foresight and the use of scenarios was conducted, and a scenario writing approach based on Wright and Spers (2006) was adopted, which includes the use of the Delphi method, Michael Porter's Five Competitive Forces model, Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) (WRIGHT, 1991) and quantitative projections. This methodology provided four scenarios, with quantitative and qualitative elements: two exploratory scenarios ("milk, the new agribusiness star" and "a wasted future"), a most probable scenario ("continuous but uneven growth") and a desired scenario ("competitive family agriculture"). Overall, it is possible to note many market opportunities, as well as niche markets and the strengthening of cooperatives. Future prospects are also favorable to the dairy industry in general, but nearly all scenarios point to a concentration in the industrial sphere. |
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Brazilian milk production has grown steadily and in 2004 the country became self-sufficient in dairy production. This article develops possible scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil for the year 2020 in order to contribute to decisions that must be made by stakeholders. A literature review on foresight and the use of scenarios was conducted, and a scenario writing approach based on Wright and Spers (2006) was adopted, which includes the use of the Delphi method, Michael Porter's Five Competitive Forces model, Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) (WRIGHT, 1991) and quantitative projections. This methodology provided four scenarios, with quantitative and qualitative elements: two exploratory scenarios ("milk, the new agribusiness star" and "a wasted future"), a most probable scenario ("continuous but uneven growth") and a desired scenario ("competitive family agriculture"). Overall, it is possible to note many market opportunities, as well as niche markets and the strengthening of cooperatives. Future prospects are also favorable to the dairy industry in general, but nearly all scenarios point to a concentration in the industrial sphere. |
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