Drivers of Future Physical Water Scarcity and Its Economic Impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean

Abstract Future water scarcity is a global concern with impacts across the energy, water, and land (EWL) sectors. Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are significant producers of agricultural goods, so disruptions resulting from water scarcity in LAC have global importance. Understand...
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Autor*in:	Abigail Birnbaum [verfasserIn] Jonathan Lamontagne [verfasserIn] Thomas Wild [verfasserIn] Flannery Dolan [verfasserIn] Brinda Yarlagadda [verfasserIn]

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2022

Schlagwörter:	climate change multisector dynamics scenario discovery water scarcity integrated assessment modeling Latin America

Übergeordnetes Werk:	In: Earth's Future - Wiley, 2014, 10(2022), 8, Seite n/a-n/a
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:10 ; year:2022 ; number:8 ; pages:n/a-n/a

Links:	Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Journal toc

DOI / URN:	10.1029/2022EF002764

Katalog-ID:	DOAJ034957499

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520			\|a Abstract Future water scarcity is a global concern with impacts across the energy, water, and land (EWL) sectors. Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are significant producers of agricultural goods, so disruptions resulting from water scarcity in LAC have global importance. Understanding where water scarcity in LAC could occur and what could exacerbate it is critical for strategic resource management and planning, both regionally and globally. Assessing future water scarcity in LAC is challenging given the complex interactions among the EWL sectors and the multiple uncertainties acting across spatial scales. To illuminate these dynamics, we use scenario discovery on a large ensemble representing diverse futures simulated using an integrated human‐environmental systems model. We quantify future water scarcity and its economic impacts across several physical and economic metrics. We find that future levels of reservoir storage expansion could be a significant driver of physical and economic water scarcity, highlighting the importance of strategic water infrastructure development in maintaining future water availability. Changes in crop profit are driven by both water supply and demand, emphasizing the complexity of EWL multisector dynamics. While most of LAC is poised to have abundant land and water resources available for future development, basins in Mexico and along the Pacific coast of South America experience high exposure to severe outcomes and uncertainty across outcomes for at least one metric. We find that drivers of severe scarcity vary spatially and across metrics, highlighting the region's heterogeneity and the importance of considering multiple metrics to assess water scarcity.
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653		0	\|a Environmental sciences
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700	0		\|a Thomas Wild \|e verfasserin \|4 aut
700	0		\|a Flannery Dolan \|e verfasserin \|4 aut
700	0		\|a Brinda Yarlagadda \|e verfasserin \|4 aut
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allfields	10.1029/2022EF002764 doi (DE-627)DOAJ034957499 (DE-599)DOAJ46350dc3049440bdbc3d91df87d617b3 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng GE1-350 QH540-549.5 Abigail Birnbaum verfasserin aut Drivers of Future Physical Water Scarcity and Its Economic Impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract Future water scarcity is a global concern with impacts across the energy, water, and land (EWL) sectors. Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are significant producers of agricultural goods, so disruptions resulting from water scarcity in LAC have global importance. Understanding where water scarcity in LAC could occur and what could exacerbate it is critical for strategic resource management and planning, both regionally and globally. Assessing future water scarcity in LAC is challenging given the complex interactions among the EWL sectors and the multiple uncertainties acting across spatial scales. To illuminate these dynamics, we use scenario discovery on a large ensemble representing diverse futures simulated using an integrated human‐environmental systems model. We quantify future water scarcity and its economic impacts across several physical and economic metrics. We find that future levels of reservoir storage expansion could be a significant driver of physical and economic water scarcity, highlighting the importance of strategic water infrastructure development in maintaining future water availability. Changes in crop profit are driven by both water supply and demand, emphasizing the complexity of EWL multisector dynamics. While most of LAC is poised to have abundant land and water resources available for future development, basins in Mexico and along the Pacific coast of South America experience high exposure to severe outcomes and uncertainty across outcomes for at least one metric. We find that drivers of severe scarcity vary spatially and across metrics, highlighting the region's heterogeneity and the importance of considering multiple metrics to assess water scarcity. climate change multisector dynamics scenario discovery water scarcity integrated assessment modeling Latin America Environmental sciences Ecology Jonathan Lamontagne verfasserin aut Thomas Wild verfasserin aut Flannery Dolan verfasserin aut Brinda Yarlagadda verfasserin aut In Earth's Future Wiley, 2014 10(2022), 8, Seite n/a-n/a (DE-627)774815426 (DE-600)2746403-9 23284277 nnns volume:10 year:2022 number:8 pages:n/a-n/a https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002764 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/46350dc3049440bdbc3d91df87d617b3 kostenfrei https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002764 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2328-4277 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 10 2022 8 n/a-n/a
spelling	10.1029/2022EF002764 doi (DE-627)DOAJ034957499 (DE-599)DOAJ46350dc3049440bdbc3d91df87d617b3 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng GE1-350 QH540-549.5 Abigail Birnbaum verfasserin aut Drivers of Future Physical Water Scarcity and Its Economic Impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract Future water scarcity is a global concern with impacts across the energy, water, and land (EWL) sectors. Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are significant producers of agricultural goods, so disruptions resulting from water scarcity in LAC have global importance. Understanding where water scarcity in LAC could occur and what could exacerbate it is critical for strategic resource management and planning, both regionally and globally. Assessing future water scarcity in LAC is challenging given the complex interactions among the EWL sectors and the multiple uncertainties acting across spatial scales. To illuminate these dynamics, we use scenario discovery on a large ensemble representing diverse futures simulated using an integrated human‐environmental systems model. We quantify future water scarcity and its economic impacts across several physical and economic metrics. We find that future levels of reservoir storage expansion could be a significant driver of physical and economic water scarcity, highlighting the importance of strategic water infrastructure development in maintaining future water availability. Changes in crop profit are driven by both water supply and demand, emphasizing the complexity of EWL multisector dynamics. While most of LAC is poised to have abundant land and water resources available for future development, basins in Mexico and along the Pacific coast of South America experience high exposure to severe outcomes and uncertainty across outcomes for at least one metric. We find that drivers of severe scarcity vary spatially and across metrics, highlighting the region's heterogeneity and the importance of considering multiple metrics to assess water scarcity. climate change multisector dynamics scenario discovery water scarcity integrated assessment modeling Latin America Environmental sciences Ecology Jonathan Lamontagne verfasserin aut Thomas Wild verfasserin aut Flannery Dolan verfasserin aut Brinda Yarlagadda verfasserin aut In Earth's Future Wiley, 2014 10(2022), 8, Seite n/a-n/a (DE-627)774815426 (DE-600)2746403-9 23284277 nnns volume:10 year:2022 number:8 pages:n/a-n/a https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002764 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/46350dc3049440bdbc3d91df87d617b3 kostenfrei https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002764 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2328-4277 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 10 2022 8 n/a-n/a
allfields_unstemmed	10.1029/2022EF002764 doi (DE-627)DOAJ034957499 (DE-599)DOAJ46350dc3049440bdbc3d91df87d617b3 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng GE1-350 QH540-549.5 Abigail Birnbaum verfasserin aut Drivers of Future Physical Water Scarcity and Its Economic Impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract Future water scarcity is a global concern with impacts across the energy, water, and land (EWL) sectors. Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are significant producers of agricultural goods, so disruptions resulting from water scarcity in LAC have global importance. Understanding where water scarcity in LAC could occur and what could exacerbate it is critical for strategic resource management and planning, both regionally and globally. Assessing future water scarcity in LAC is challenging given the complex interactions among the EWL sectors and the multiple uncertainties acting across spatial scales. To illuminate these dynamics, we use scenario discovery on a large ensemble representing diverse futures simulated using an integrated human‐environmental systems model. We quantify future water scarcity and its economic impacts across several physical and economic metrics. We find that future levels of reservoir storage expansion could be a significant driver of physical and economic water scarcity, highlighting the importance of strategic water infrastructure development in maintaining future water availability. Changes in crop profit are driven by both water supply and demand, emphasizing the complexity of EWL multisector dynamics. While most of LAC is poised to have abundant land and water resources available for future development, basins in Mexico and along the Pacific coast of South America experience high exposure to severe outcomes and uncertainty across outcomes for at least one metric. We find that drivers of severe scarcity vary spatially and across metrics, highlighting the region's heterogeneity and the importance of considering multiple metrics to assess water scarcity. climate change multisector dynamics scenario discovery water scarcity integrated assessment modeling Latin America Environmental sciences Ecology Jonathan Lamontagne verfasserin aut Thomas Wild verfasserin aut Flannery Dolan verfasserin aut Brinda Yarlagadda verfasserin aut In Earth's Future Wiley, 2014 10(2022), 8, Seite n/a-n/a (DE-627)774815426 (DE-600)2746403-9 23284277 nnns volume:10 year:2022 number:8 pages:n/a-n/a https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002764 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/46350dc3049440bdbc3d91df87d617b3 kostenfrei https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002764 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2328-4277 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 10 2022 8 n/a-n/a
allfieldsGer	10.1029/2022EF002764 doi (DE-627)DOAJ034957499 (DE-599)DOAJ46350dc3049440bdbc3d91df87d617b3 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng GE1-350 QH540-549.5 Abigail Birnbaum verfasserin aut Drivers of Future Physical Water Scarcity and Its Economic Impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract Future water scarcity is a global concern with impacts across the energy, water, and land (EWL) sectors. Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are significant producers of agricultural goods, so disruptions resulting from water scarcity in LAC have global importance. Understanding where water scarcity in LAC could occur and what could exacerbate it is critical for strategic resource management and planning, both regionally and globally. Assessing future water scarcity in LAC is challenging given the complex interactions among the EWL sectors and the multiple uncertainties acting across spatial scales. To illuminate these dynamics, we use scenario discovery on a large ensemble representing diverse futures simulated using an integrated human‐environmental systems model. We quantify future water scarcity and its economic impacts across several physical and economic metrics. We find that future levels of reservoir storage expansion could be a significant driver of physical and economic water scarcity, highlighting the importance of strategic water infrastructure development in maintaining future water availability. Changes in crop profit are driven by both water supply and demand, emphasizing the complexity of EWL multisector dynamics. While most of LAC is poised to have abundant land and water resources available for future development, basins in Mexico and along the Pacific coast of South America experience high exposure to severe outcomes and uncertainty across outcomes for at least one metric. We find that drivers of severe scarcity vary spatially and across metrics, highlighting the region's heterogeneity and the importance of considering multiple metrics to assess water scarcity. climate change multisector dynamics scenario discovery water scarcity integrated assessment modeling Latin America Environmental sciences Ecology Jonathan Lamontagne verfasserin aut Thomas Wild verfasserin aut Flannery Dolan verfasserin aut Brinda Yarlagadda verfasserin aut In Earth's Future Wiley, 2014 10(2022), 8, Seite n/a-n/a (DE-627)774815426 (DE-600)2746403-9 23284277 nnns volume:10 year:2022 number:8 pages:n/a-n/a https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002764 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/46350dc3049440bdbc3d91df87d617b3 kostenfrei https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002764 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2328-4277 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 10 2022 8 n/a-n/a
allfieldsSound	10.1029/2022EF002764 doi (DE-627)DOAJ034957499 (DE-599)DOAJ46350dc3049440bdbc3d91df87d617b3 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng GE1-350 QH540-549.5 Abigail Birnbaum verfasserin aut Drivers of Future Physical Water Scarcity and Its Economic Impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract Future water scarcity is a global concern with impacts across the energy, water, and land (EWL) sectors. Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are significant producers of agricultural goods, so disruptions resulting from water scarcity in LAC have global importance. Understanding where water scarcity in LAC could occur and what could exacerbate it is critical for strategic resource management and planning, both regionally and globally. Assessing future water scarcity in LAC is challenging given the complex interactions among the EWL sectors and the multiple uncertainties acting across spatial scales. To illuminate these dynamics, we use scenario discovery on a large ensemble representing diverse futures simulated using an integrated human‐environmental systems model. We quantify future water scarcity and its economic impacts across several physical and economic metrics. We find that future levels of reservoir storage expansion could be a significant driver of physical and economic water scarcity, highlighting the importance of strategic water infrastructure development in maintaining future water availability. Changes in crop profit are driven by both water supply and demand, emphasizing the complexity of EWL multisector dynamics. While most of LAC is poised to have abundant land and water resources available for future development, basins in Mexico and along the Pacific coast of South America experience high exposure to severe outcomes and uncertainty across outcomes for at least one metric. We find that drivers of severe scarcity vary spatially and across metrics, highlighting the region's heterogeneity and the importance of considering multiple metrics to assess water scarcity. climate change multisector dynamics scenario discovery water scarcity integrated assessment modeling Latin America Environmental sciences Ecology Jonathan Lamontagne verfasserin aut Thomas Wild verfasserin aut Flannery Dolan verfasserin aut Brinda Yarlagadda verfasserin aut In Earth's Future Wiley, 2014 10(2022), 8, Seite n/a-n/a (DE-627)774815426 (DE-600)2746403-9 23284277 nnns volume:10 year:2022 number:8 pages:n/a-n/a https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002764 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/46350dc3049440bdbc3d91df87d617b3 kostenfrei https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002764 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2328-4277 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 10 2022 8 n/a-n/a
language	English
source	In Earth's Future 10(2022), 8, Seite n/a-n/a volume:10 year:2022 number:8 pages:n/a-n/a
sourceStr	In Earth's Future 10(2022), 8, Seite n/a-n/a volume:10 year:2022 number:8 pages:n/a-n/a
format_phy_str_mv	Article
institution	findex.gbv.de
topic_facet	climate change multisector dynamics scenario discovery water scarcity integrated assessment modeling Latin America Environmental sciences Ecology
isfreeaccess_bool	true
container_title	Earth's Future
authorswithroles_txt_mv	Abigail Birnbaum @@aut@@ Jonathan Lamontagne @@aut@@ Thomas Wild @@aut@@ Flannery Dolan @@aut@@ Brinda Yarlagadda @@aut@@
publishDateDaySort_date	2022-01-01T00:00:00Z
hierarchy_top_id	774815426
id	DOAJ034957499
language_de	englisch
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callnumber-first	G - Geography, Anthropology, Recreation
author	Abigail Birnbaum
spellingShingle	Abigail Birnbaum misc GE1-350 misc QH540-549.5 misc climate change misc multisector dynamics misc scenario discovery misc water scarcity misc integrated assessment modeling misc Latin America misc Environmental sciences misc Ecology Drivers of Future Physical Water Scarcity and Its Economic Impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean
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topic_title	GE1-350 QH540-549.5 Drivers of Future Physical Water Scarcity and Its Economic Impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean climate change multisector dynamics scenario discovery water scarcity integrated assessment modeling Latin America
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title	Drivers of Future Physical Water Scarcity and Its Economic Impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean
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title_full	Drivers of Future Physical Water Scarcity and Its Economic Impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean
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title_sort	drivers of future physical water scarcity and its economic impacts in latin america and the caribbean
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title_auth	Drivers of Future Physical Water Scarcity and Its Economic Impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean
abstract	Abstract Future water scarcity is a global concern with impacts across the energy, water, and land (EWL) sectors. Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are significant producers of agricultural goods, so disruptions resulting from water scarcity in LAC have global importance. Understanding where water scarcity in LAC could occur and what could exacerbate it is critical for strategic resource management and planning, both regionally and globally. Assessing future water scarcity in LAC is challenging given the complex interactions among the EWL sectors and the multiple uncertainties acting across spatial scales. To illuminate these dynamics, we use scenario discovery on a large ensemble representing diverse futures simulated using an integrated human‐environmental systems model. We quantify future water scarcity and its economic impacts across several physical and economic metrics. We find that future levels of reservoir storage expansion could be a significant driver of physical and economic water scarcity, highlighting the importance of strategic water infrastructure development in maintaining future water availability. Changes in crop profit are driven by both water supply and demand, emphasizing the complexity of EWL multisector dynamics. While most of LAC is poised to have abundant land and water resources available for future development, basins in Mexico and along the Pacific coast of South America experience high exposure to severe outcomes and uncertainty across outcomes for at least one metric. We find that drivers of severe scarcity vary spatially and across metrics, highlighting the region's heterogeneity and the importance of considering multiple metrics to assess water scarcity.
abstractGer	Abstract Future water scarcity is a global concern with impacts across the energy, water, and land (EWL) sectors. Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are significant producers of agricultural goods, so disruptions resulting from water scarcity in LAC have global importance. Understanding where water scarcity in LAC could occur and what could exacerbate it is critical for strategic resource management and planning, both regionally and globally. Assessing future water scarcity in LAC is challenging given the complex interactions among the EWL sectors and the multiple uncertainties acting across spatial scales. To illuminate these dynamics, we use scenario discovery on a large ensemble representing diverse futures simulated using an integrated human‐environmental systems model. We quantify future water scarcity and its economic impacts across several physical and economic metrics. We find that future levels of reservoir storage expansion could be a significant driver of physical and economic water scarcity, highlighting the importance of strategic water infrastructure development in maintaining future water availability. Changes in crop profit are driven by both water supply and demand, emphasizing the complexity of EWL multisector dynamics. While most of LAC is poised to have abundant land and water resources available for future development, basins in Mexico and along the Pacific coast of South America experience high exposure to severe outcomes and uncertainty across outcomes for at least one metric. We find that drivers of severe scarcity vary spatially and across metrics, highlighting the region's heterogeneity and the importance of considering multiple metrics to assess water scarcity.
abstract_unstemmed	Abstract Future water scarcity is a global concern with impacts across the energy, water, and land (EWL) sectors. Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are significant producers of agricultural goods, so disruptions resulting from water scarcity in LAC have global importance. Understanding where water scarcity in LAC could occur and what could exacerbate it is critical for strategic resource management and planning, both regionally and globally. Assessing future water scarcity in LAC is challenging given the complex interactions among the EWL sectors and the multiple uncertainties acting across spatial scales. To illuminate these dynamics, we use scenario discovery on a large ensemble representing diverse futures simulated using an integrated human‐environmental systems model. We quantify future water scarcity and its economic impacts across several physical and economic metrics. We find that future levels of reservoir storage expansion could be a significant driver of physical and economic water scarcity, highlighting the importance of strategic water infrastructure development in maintaining future water availability. Changes in crop profit are driven by both water supply and demand, emphasizing the complexity of EWL multisector dynamics. While most of LAC is poised to have abundant land and water resources available for future development, basins in Mexico and along the Pacific coast of South America experience high exposure to severe outcomes and uncertainty across outcomes for at least one metric. We find that drivers of severe scarcity vary spatially and across metrics, highlighting the region's heterogeneity and the importance of considering multiple metrics to assess water scarcity.
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title_short	Drivers of Future Physical Water Scarcity and Its Economic Impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean
url	https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002764 https://doaj.org/article/46350dc3049440bdbc3d91df87d617b3 https://doaj.org/toc/2328-4277
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Drivers of Future Physical Water Scarcity and Its Economic Impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean

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