Moving Average Based Index for Judging the Peak of the COVID-19 Epidemic

A pneumonia outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has spread around the world. A total of 2,314,621 laboratory-confirmed cases, including 157,847 deaths (6.8%) were reported globally by 20 April 2020. Common symptoms of COVID-19 pneumonia include fever, fatigue, and dry cough. Faced with...
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Autor*in:	Yunting He [verfasserIn] Xiaojin Wang [verfasserIn] Hao He [verfasserIn] Jing Zhai [verfasserIn] Bingshun Wang [verfasserIn]

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2020

Schlagwörter:	novel coronavirus COVID-19 infectious diseases moving average epidemic peak epidemic evaluation epidemic

Übergeordnetes Werk:	In: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health - MDPI AG, 2005, 17(2020), 5288, p 5288
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:17 ; year:2020 ; number:5288, p 5288

Links:	Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Journal toc Journal toc

DOI / URN:	10.3390/ijerph17155288

Katalog-ID:	DOAJ035521236

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520			\|a A pneumonia outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has spread around the world. A total of 2,314,621 laboratory-confirmed cases, including 157,847 deaths (6.8%) were reported globally by 20 April 2020. Common symptoms of COVID-19 pneumonia include fever, fatigue, and dry cough. Faced with such a sudden outbreak of emerging infectious disease, traditional models for predicting the peak of the epidemic often show inconsistent results. With the aim to timely judge the epidemic peak and provide support for decisions for resuming production and returning to normal life based on publicly reported data, we used a seven-day moving average of log-transformed daily new cases (LMA) to establish a new index named the “epidemic evaluation index” (EEI). We used SARS epidemic data from Hong Kong to verify the practicability of the new index, and then applied it to the COVID-19 epidemic analysis. The results showed that the epidemic peaked, respectively, on 9 February and 5 February 2020, in Hubei Province and other provinces in China. The proposed index can be applied for judging the epidemic peak. While the global COVID-19 epidemic reached its peak in the middle of April, the epidemic peaks in some countries have not yet appeared. Global and united efforts are still needed to eventually eliminate the epidemic.
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author	Yunting He
spellingShingle	Yunting He misc novel coronavirus COVID-19 misc infectious diseases misc moving average misc epidemic peak misc epidemic evaluation misc epidemic misc Medicine misc R Moving Average Based Index for Judging the Peak of the COVID-19 Epidemic
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topic_title	Moving Average Based Index for Judging the Peak of the COVID-19 Epidemic novel coronavirus COVID-19 infectious diseases moving average epidemic peak epidemic evaluation epidemic
topic	misc novel coronavirus COVID-19 misc infectious diseases misc moving average misc epidemic peak misc epidemic evaluation misc epidemic misc Medicine misc R
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title	Moving Average Based Index for Judging the Peak of the COVID-19 Epidemic
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title_sort	moving average based index for judging the peak of the covid-19 epidemic
title_auth	Moving Average Based Index for Judging the Peak of the COVID-19 Epidemic
abstract	A pneumonia outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has spread around the world. A total of 2,314,621 laboratory-confirmed cases, including 157,847 deaths (6.8%) were reported globally by 20 April 2020. Common symptoms of COVID-19 pneumonia include fever, fatigue, and dry cough. Faced with such a sudden outbreak of emerging infectious disease, traditional models for predicting the peak of the epidemic often show inconsistent results. With the aim to timely judge the epidemic peak and provide support for decisions for resuming production and returning to normal life based on publicly reported data, we used a seven-day moving average of log-transformed daily new cases (LMA) to establish a new index named the “epidemic evaluation index” (EEI). We used SARS epidemic data from Hong Kong to verify the practicability of the new index, and then applied it to the COVID-19 epidemic analysis. The results showed that the epidemic peaked, respectively, on 9 February and 5 February 2020, in Hubei Province and other provinces in China. The proposed index can be applied for judging the epidemic peak. While the global COVID-19 epidemic reached its peak in the middle of April, the epidemic peaks in some countries have not yet appeared. Global and united efforts are still needed to eventually eliminate the epidemic.
abstractGer	A pneumonia outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has spread around the world. A total of 2,314,621 laboratory-confirmed cases, including 157,847 deaths (6.8%) were reported globally by 20 April 2020. Common symptoms of COVID-19 pneumonia include fever, fatigue, and dry cough. Faced with such a sudden outbreak of emerging infectious disease, traditional models for predicting the peak of the epidemic often show inconsistent results. With the aim to timely judge the epidemic peak and provide support for decisions for resuming production and returning to normal life based on publicly reported data, we used a seven-day moving average of log-transformed daily new cases (LMA) to establish a new index named the “epidemic evaluation index” (EEI). We used SARS epidemic data from Hong Kong to verify the practicability of the new index, and then applied it to the COVID-19 epidemic analysis. The results showed that the epidemic peaked, respectively, on 9 February and 5 February 2020, in Hubei Province and other provinces in China. The proposed index can be applied for judging the epidemic peak. While the global COVID-19 epidemic reached its peak in the middle of April, the epidemic peaks in some countries have not yet appeared. Global and united efforts are still needed to eventually eliminate the epidemic.
abstract_unstemmed	A pneumonia outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has spread around the world. A total of 2,314,621 laboratory-confirmed cases, including 157,847 deaths (6.8%) were reported globally by 20 April 2020. Common symptoms of COVID-19 pneumonia include fever, fatigue, and dry cough. Faced with such a sudden outbreak of emerging infectious disease, traditional models for predicting the peak of the epidemic often show inconsistent results. With the aim to timely judge the epidemic peak and provide support for decisions for resuming production and returning to normal life based on publicly reported data, we used a seven-day moving average of log-transformed daily new cases (LMA) to establish a new index named the “epidemic evaluation index” (EEI). We used SARS epidemic data from Hong Kong to verify the practicability of the new index, and then applied it to the COVID-19 epidemic analysis. The results showed that the epidemic peaked, respectively, on 9 February and 5 February 2020, in Hubei Province and other provinces in China. The proposed index can be applied for judging the epidemic peak. While the global COVID-19 epidemic reached its peak in the middle of April, the epidemic peaks in some countries have not yet appeared. Global and united efforts are still needed to eventually eliminate the epidemic.
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title_short	Moving Average Based Index for Judging the Peak of the COVID-19 Epidemic
url	https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17155288 https://doaj.org/article/a4c9cfb9bd634e3b824c3cdd458890c7 https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/15/5288 https://doaj.org/toc/1661-7827 https://doaj.org/toc/1660-4601
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up_date	2024-07-03T15:27:39.003Z
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