Predicting Global Fund grant disbursements for procurement of artemisinin-based combination therapies

<p<Abstract</p< <p<Background</p< <p<An accurate forecast of global demand is essential to stabilize the market for artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) and to ensure access to high-quality, life-saving medications at the lowest sustainable prices by avoiding underproduction and excessive overproduction, each of which can have negative consequences for the availability of affordable drugs. A robust forecast requires an understanding of the resources available to support procurement of these relatively expensive antimalarials, in particular from the Global Fund, at present the single largest source of ACT funding.</p< <p<Methods</p< <p<Predictive regression models estimating the timing and rate of disbursements from the Global Fund to recipient countries for each malaria grant were derived using a repeated split-sample procedure intended to avoid over-fitting. Predictions were compared against actual disbursements in a group of validation grants, and forecasts of ACT procurement extrapolated from disbursement predictions were evaluated against actual procurement in two sub-Saharan countries.</p< <p<Results</p< <p<Quarterly forecasts were correlated highly with actual smoothed disbursement rates (r = 0.987, p < 0.0001). Additionally, predicted ACT procurement, extrapolated from forecasted disbursements, was correlated strongly with actual ACT procurement supported by two grants from the Global Fund's first (r = 0.945, p < 0.0001) and fourth (r = 0.938, p < 0.0001) funding rounds.</p< <p<Conclusion</p< <p<This analysis derived predictive regression models that successfully forecasted disbursement patterning for individual Global Fund malaria grants. These results indicate the utility of this approach for demand forecasting of ACT and, potentially, for other commodities procured using funding from the Global Fund. Further validation using data from other countries in different regions and environments will be necessary to confirm its generalizability.</p< Ausführliche Beschreibung

Gespeichert in:

Autor*in:	O'Brien Megan E [verfasserIn] Singh Inder [verfasserIn] Cohen Justin M [verfasserIn]

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2008

Übergeordnetes Werk:	In: Malaria Journal - BMC, 2003, 7(2008), 1, p 200
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:7 ; year:2008 ; number:1, p 200

Links:	Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Journal toc

DOI / URN:	10.1186/1475-2875-7-200

Katalog-ID:	DOAJ038537850

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allfields	10.1186/1475-2875-7-200 doi (DE-627)DOAJ038537850 (DE-599)DOAJ033093d5f6e14700a662d4664e99621f DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng RC955-962 RC109-216 O'Brien Megan E verfasserin aut Predicting Global Fund grant disbursements for procurement of artemisinin-based combination therapies 2008 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier <p<Abstract</p< <p<Background</p< <p<An accurate forecast of global demand is essential to stabilize the market for artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) and to ensure access to high-quality, life-saving medications at the lowest sustainable prices by avoiding underproduction and excessive overproduction, each of which can have negative consequences for the availability of affordable drugs. A robust forecast requires an understanding of the resources available to support procurement of these relatively expensive antimalarials, in particular from the Global Fund, at present the single largest source of ACT funding.</p< <p<Methods</p< <p<Predictive regression models estimating the timing and rate of disbursements from the Global Fund to recipient countries for each malaria grant were derived using a repeated split-sample procedure intended to avoid over-fitting. Predictions were compared against actual disbursements in a group of validation grants, and forecasts of ACT procurement extrapolated from disbursement predictions were evaluated against actual procurement in two sub-Saharan countries.</p< <p<Results</p< <p<Quarterly forecasts were correlated highly with actual smoothed disbursement rates (r = 0.987, p < 0.0001). Additionally, predicted ACT procurement, extrapolated from forecasted disbursements, was correlated strongly with actual ACT procurement supported by two grants from the Global Fund's first (r = 0.945, p < 0.0001) and fourth (r = 0.938, p < 0.0001) funding rounds.</p< <p<Conclusion</p< <p<This analysis derived predictive regression models that successfully forecasted disbursement patterning for individual Global Fund malaria grants. These results indicate the utility of this approach for demand forecasting of ACT and, potentially, for other commodities procured using funding from the Global Fund. Further validation using data from other countries in different regions and environments will be necessary to confirm its generalizability.</p< Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine Infectious and parasitic diseases Singh Inder verfasserin aut Cohen Justin M verfasserin aut In Malaria Journal BMC, 2003 7(2008), 1, p 200 (DE-627)355986582 (DE-600)2091229-8 14752875 nnns volume:7 year:2008 number:1, p 200 https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-7-200 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/033093d5f6e14700a662d4664e99621f kostenfrei http://www.malariajournal.com/content/7/1/200 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1475-2875 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 7 2008 1, p 200
spelling	10.1186/1475-2875-7-200 doi (DE-627)DOAJ038537850 (DE-599)DOAJ033093d5f6e14700a662d4664e99621f DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng RC955-962 RC109-216 O'Brien Megan E verfasserin aut Predicting Global Fund grant disbursements for procurement of artemisinin-based combination therapies 2008 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier <p<Abstract</p< <p<Background</p< <p<An accurate forecast of global demand is essential to stabilize the market for artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) and to ensure access to high-quality, life-saving medications at the lowest sustainable prices by avoiding underproduction and excessive overproduction, each of which can have negative consequences for the availability of affordable drugs. A robust forecast requires an understanding of the resources available to support procurement of these relatively expensive antimalarials, in particular from the Global Fund, at present the single largest source of ACT funding.</p< <p<Methods</p< <p<Predictive regression models estimating the timing and rate of disbursements from the Global Fund to recipient countries for each malaria grant were derived using a repeated split-sample procedure intended to avoid over-fitting. Predictions were compared against actual disbursements in a group of validation grants, and forecasts of ACT procurement extrapolated from disbursement predictions were evaluated against actual procurement in two sub-Saharan countries.</p< <p<Results</p< <p<Quarterly forecasts were correlated highly with actual smoothed disbursement rates (r = 0.987, p < 0.0001). Additionally, predicted ACT procurement, extrapolated from forecasted disbursements, was correlated strongly with actual ACT procurement supported by two grants from the Global Fund's first (r = 0.945, p < 0.0001) and fourth (r = 0.938, p < 0.0001) funding rounds.</p< <p<Conclusion</p< <p<This analysis derived predictive regression models that successfully forecasted disbursement patterning for individual Global Fund malaria grants. These results indicate the utility of this approach for demand forecasting of ACT and, potentially, for other commodities procured using funding from the Global Fund. Further validation using data from other countries in different regions and environments will be necessary to confirm its generalizability.</p< Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine Infectious and parasitic diseases Singh Inder verfasserin aut Cohen Justin M verfasserin aut In Malaria Journal BMC, 2003 7(2008), 1, p 200 (DE-627)355986582 (DE-600)2091229-8 14752875 nnns volume:7 year:2008 number:1, p 200 https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-7-200 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/033093d5f6e14700a662d4664e99621f kostenfrei http://www.malariajournal.com/content/7/1/200 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1475-2875 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 7 2008 1, p 200
allfields_unstemmed	10.1186/1475-2875-7-200 doi (DE-627)DOAJ038537850 (DE-599)DOAJ033093d5f6e14700a662d4664e99621f DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng RC955-962 RC109-216 O'Brien Megan E verfasserin aut Predicting Global Fund grant disbursements for procurement of artemisinin-based combination therapies 2008 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier <p<Abstract</p< <p<Background</p< <p<An accurate forecast of global demand is essential to stabilize the market for artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) and to ensure access to high-quality, life-saving medications at the lowest sustainable prices by avoiding underproduction and excessive overproduction, each of which can have negative consequences for the availability of affordable drugs. A robust forecast requires an understanding of the resources available to support procurement of these relatively expensive antimalarials, in particular from the Global Fund, at present the single largest source of ACT funding.</p< <p<Methods</p< <p<Predictive regression models estimating the timing and rate of disbursements from the Global Fund to recipient countries for each malaria grant were derived using a repeated split-sample procedure intended to avoid over-fitting. Predictions were compared against actual disbursements in a group of validation grants, and forecasts of ACT procurement extrapolated from disbursement predictions were evaluated against actual procurement in two sub-Saharan countries.</p< <p<Results</p< <p<Quarterly forecasts were correlated highly with actual smoothed disbursement rates (r = 0.987, p < 0.0001). Additionally, predicted ACT procurement, extrapolated from forecasted disbursements, was correlated strongly with actual ACT procurement supported by two grants from the Global Fund's first (r = 0.945, p < 0.0001) and fourth (r = 0.938, p < 0.0001) funding rounds.</p< <p<Conclusion</p< <p<This analysis derived predictive regression models that successfully forecasted disbursement patterning for individual Global Fund malaria grants. These results indicate the utility of this approach for demand forecasting of ACT and, potentially, for other commodities procured using funding from the Global Fund. Further validation using data from other countries in different regions and environments will be necessary to confirm its generalizability.</p< Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine Infectious and parasitic diseases Singh Inder verfasserin aut Cohen Justin M verfasserin aut In Malaria Journal BMC, 2003 7(2008), 1, p 200 (DE-627)355986582 (DE-600)2091229-8 14752875 nnns volume:7 year:2008 number:1, p 200 https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-7-200 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/033093d5f6e14700a662d4664e99621f kostenfrei http://www.malariajournal.com/content/7/1/200 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1475-2875 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 7 2008 1, p 200
allfieldsGer	10.1186/1475-2875-7-200 doi (DE-627)DOAJ038537850 (DE-599)DOAJ033093d5f6e14700a662d4664e99621f DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng RC955-962 RC109-216 O'Brien Megan E verfasserin aut Predicting Global Fund grant disbursements for procurement of artemisinin-based combination therapies 2008 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier <p<Abstract</p< <p<Background</p< <p<An accurate forecast of global demand is essential to stabilize the market for artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) and to ensure access to high-quality, life-saving medications at the lowest sustainable prices by avoiding underproduction and excessive overproduction, each of which can have negative consequences for the availability of affordable drugs. A robust forecast requires an understanding of the resources available to support procurement of these relatively expensive antimalarials, in particular from the Global Fund, at present the single largest source of ACT funding.</p< <p<Methods</p< <p<Predictive regression models estimating the timing and rate of disbursements from the Global Fund to recipient countries for each malaria grant were derived using a repeated split-sample procedure intended to avoid over-fitting. Predictions were compared against actual disbursements in a group of validation grants, and forecasts of ACT procurement extrapolated from disbursement predictions were evaluated against actual procurement in two sub-Saharan countries.</p< <p<Results</p< <p<Quarterly forecasts were correlated highly with actual smoothed disbursement rates (r = 0.987, p < 0.0001). Additionally, predicted ACT procurement, extrapolated from forecasted disbursements, was correlated strongly with actual ACT procurement supported by two grants from the Global Fund's first (r = 0.945, p < 0.0001) and fourth (r = 0.938, p < 0.0001) funding rounds.</p< <p<Conclusion</p< <p<This analysis derived predictive regression models that successfully forecasted disbursement patterning for individual Global Fund malaria grants. These results indicate the utility of this approach for demand forecasting of ACT and, potentially, for other commodities procured using funding from the Global Fund. Further validation using data from other countries in different regions and environments will be necessary to confirm its generalizability.</p< Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine Infectious and parasitic diseases Singh Inder verfasserin aut Cohen Justin M verfasserin aut In Malaria Journal BMC, 2003 7(2008), 1, p 200 (DE-627)355986582 (DE-600)2091229-8 14752875 nnns volume:7 year:2008 number:1, p 200 https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-7-200 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/033093d5f6e14700a662d4664e99621f kostenfrei http://www.malariajournal.com/content/7/1/200 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1475-2875 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 7 2008 1, p 200
allfieldsSound	10.1186/1475-2875-7-200 doi (DE-627)DOAJ038537850 (DE-599)DOAJ033093d5f6e14700a662d4664e99621f DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng RC955-962 RC109-216 O'Brien Megan E verfasserin aut Predicting Global Fund grant disbursements for procurement of artemisinin-based combination therapies 2008 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier <p<Abstract</p< <p<Background</p< <p<An accurate forecast of global demand is essential to stabilize the market for artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) and to ensure access to high-quality, life-saving medications at the lowest sustainable prices by avoiding underproduction and excessive overproduction, each of which can have negative consequences for the availability of affordable drugs. A robust forecast requires an understanding of the resources available to support procurement of these relatively expensive antimalarials, in particular from the Global Fund, at present the single largest source of ACT funding.</p< <p<Methods</p< <p<Predictive regression models estimating the timing and rate of disbursements from the Global Fund to recipient countries for each malaria grant were derived using a repeated split-sample procedure intended to avoid over-fitting. Predictions were compared against actual disbursements in a group of validation grants, and forecasts of ACT procurement extrapolated from disbursement predictions were evaluated against actual procurement in two sub-Saharan countries.</p< <p<Results</p< <p<Quarterly forecasts were correlated highly with actual smoothed disbursement rates (r = 0.987, p < 0.0001). Additionally, predicted ACT procurement, extrapolated from forecasted disbursements, was correlated strongly with actual ACT procurement supported by two grants from the Global Fund's first (r = 0.945, p < 0.0001) and fourth (r = 0.938, p < 0.0001) funding rounds.</p< <p<Conclusion</p< <p<This analysis derived predictive regression models that successfully forecasted disbursement patterning for individual Global Fund malaria grants. These results indicate the utility of this approach for demand forecasting of ACT and, potentially, for other commodities procured using funding from the Global Fund. Further validation using data from other countries in different regions and environments will be necessary to confirm its generalizability.</p< Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine Infectious and parasitic diseases Singh Inder verfasserin aut Cohen Justin M verfasserin aut In Malaria Journal BMC, 2003 7(2008), 1, p 200 (DE-627)355986582 (DE-600)2091229-8 14752875 nnns volume:7 year:2008 number:1, p 200 https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-7-200 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/033093d5f6e14700a662d4664e99621f kostenfrei http://www.malariajournal.com/content/7/1/200 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1475-2875 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 7 2008 1, p 200
language	English
source	In Malaria Journal 7(2008), 1, p 200 volume:7 year:2008 number:1, p 200
sourceStr	In Malaria Journal 7(2008), 1, p 200 volume:7 year:2008 number:1, p 200
format_phy_str_mv	Article
institution	findex.gbv.de
topic_facet	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine Infectious and parasitic diseases
isfreeaccess_bool	true
container_title	Malaria Journal
authorswithroles_txt_mv	O'Brien Megan E @@aut@@ Singh Inder @@aut@@ Cohen Justin M @@aut@@
publishDateDaySort_date	2008-01-01T00:00:00Z
hierarchy_top_id	355986582
id	DOAJ038537850
language_de	englisch
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A robust forecast requires an understanding of the resources available to support procurement of these relatively expensive antimalarials, in particular from the Global Fund, at present the single largest source of ACT funding.</p< <p<Methods</p< <p<Predictive regression models estimating the timing and rate of disbursements from the Global Fund to recipient countries for each malaria grant were derived using a repeated split-sample procedure intended to avoid over-fitting. Predictions were compared against actual disbursements in a group of validation grants, and forecasts of ACT procurement extrapolated from disbursement predictions were evaluated against actual procurement in two sub-Saharan countries.</p< <p<Results</p< <p<Quarterly forecasts were correlated highly with actual smoothed disbursement rates (r = 0.987, p < 0.0001). 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callnumber-first	R - Medicine
author	O'Brien Megan E
spellingShingle	O'Brien Megan E misc RC955-962 misc RC109-216 misc Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine misc Infectious and parasitic diseases Predicting Global Fund grant disbursements for procurement of artemisinin-based combination therapies
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topic_title	RC955-962 RC109-216 Predicting Global Fund grant disbursements for procurement of artemisinin-based combination therapies
topic	misc RC955-962 misc RC109-216 misc Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine misc Infectious and parasitic diseases
topic_unstemmed	misc RC955-962 misc RC109-216 misc Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine misc Infectious and parasitic diseases
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title	Predicting Global Fund grant disbursements for procurement of artemisinin-based combination therapies
ctrlnum	(DE-627)DOAJ038537850 (DE-599)DOAJ033093d5f6e14700a662d4664e99621f
title_full	Predicting Global Fund grant disbursements for procurement of artemisinin-based combination therapies
author_sort	O'Brien Megan E
journal	Malaria Journal
journalStr	Malaria Journal
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author_browse	O'Brien Megan E Singh Inder Cohen Justin M
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author-letter	O'Brien Megan E
doi_str_mv	10.1186/1475-2875-7-200
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title_sort	predicting global fund grant disbursements for procurement of artemisinin-based combination therapies
callnumber	RC955-962
title_auth	Predicting Global Fund grant disbursements for procurement of artemisinin-based combination therapies
abstract	<p<Abstract</p< <p<Background</p< <p<An accurate forecast of global demand is essential to stabilize the market for artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) and to ensure access to high-quality, life-saving medications at the lowest sustainable prices by avoiding underproduction and excessive overproduction, each of which can have negative consequences for the availability of affordable drugs. A robust forecast requires an understanding of the resources available to support procurement of these relatively expensive antimalarials, in particular from the Global Fund, at present the single largest source of ACT funding.</p< <p<Methods</p< <p<Predictive regression models estimating the timing and rate of disbursements from the Global Fund to recipient countries for each malaria grant were derived using a repeated split-sample procedure intended to avoid over-fitting. Predictions were compared against actual disbursements in a group of validation grants, and forecasts of ACT procurement extrapolated from disbursement predictions were evaluated against actual procurement in two sub-Saharan countries.</p< <p<Results</p< <p<Quarterly forecasts were correlated highly with actual smoothed disbursement rates (r = 0.987, p < 0.0001). Additionally, predicted ACT procurement, extrapolated from forecasted disbursements, was correlated strongly with actual ACT procurement supported by two grants from the Global Fund's first (r = 0.945, p < 0.0001) and fourth (r = 0.938, p < 0.0001) funding rounds.</p< <p<Conclusion</p< <p<This analysis derived predictive regression models that successfully forecasted disbursement patterning for individual Global Fund malaria grants. These results indicate the utility of this approach for demand forecasting of ACT and, potentially, for other commodities procured using funding from the Global Fund. Further validation using data from other countries in different regions and environments will be necessary to confirm its generalizability.</p<
abstractGer	<p<Abstract</p< <p<Background</p< <p<An accurate forecast of global demand is essential to stabilize the market for artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) and to ensure access to high-quality, life-saving medications at the lowest sustainable prices by avoiding underproduction and excessive overproduction, each of which can have negative consequences for the availability of affordable drugs. A robust forecast requires an understanding of the resources available to support procurement of these relatively expensive antimalarials, in particular from the Global Fund, at present the single largest source of ACT funding.</p< <p<Methods</p< <p<Predictive regression models estimating the timing and rate of disbursements from the Global Fund to recipient countries for each malaria grant were derived using a repeated split-sample procedure intended to avoid over-fitting. Predictions were compared against actual disbursements in a group of validation grants, and forecasts of ACT procurement extrapolated from disbursement predictions were evaluated against actual procurement in two sub-Saharan countries.</p< <p<Results</p< <p<Quarterly forecasts were correlated highly with actual smoothed disbursement rates (r = 0.987, p < 0.0001). Additionally, predicted ACT procurement, extrapolated from forecasted disbursements, was correlated strongly with actual ACT procurement supported by two grants from the Global Fund's first (r = 0.945, p < 0.0001) and fourth (r = 0.938, p < 0.0001) funding rounds.</p< <p<Conclusion</p< <p<This analysis derived predictive regression models that successfully forecasted disbursement patterning for individual Global Fund malaria grants. These results indicate the utility of this approach for demand forecasting of ACT and, potentially, for other commodities procured using funding from the Global Fund. Further validation using data from other countries in different regions and environments will be necessary to confirm its generalizability.</p<
abstract_unstemmed	<p<Abstract</p< <p<Background</p< <p<An accurate forecast of global demand is essential to stabilize the market for artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) and to ensure access to high-quality, life-saving medications at the lowest sustainable prices by avoiding underproduction and excessive overproduction, each of which can have negative consequences for the availability of affordable drugs. A robust forecast requires an understanding of the resources available to support procurement of these relatively expensive antimalarials, in particular from the Global Fund, at present the single largest source of ACT funding.</p< <p<Methods</p< <p<Predictive regression models estimating the timing and rate of disbursements from the Global Fund to recipient countries for each malaria grant were derived using a repeated split-sample procedure intended to avoid over-fitting. Predictions were compared against actual disbursements in a group of validation grants, and forecasts of ACT procurement extrapolated from disbursement predictions were evaluated against actual procurement in two sub-Saharan countries.</p< <p<Results</p< <p<Quarterly forecasts were correlated highly with actual smoothed disbursement rates (r = 0.987, p < 0.0001). Additionally, predicted ACT procurement, extrapolated from forecasted disbursements, was correlated strongly with actual ACT procurement supported by two grants from the Global Fund's first (r = 0.945, p < 0.0001) and fourth (r = 0.938, p < 0.0001) funding rounds.</p< <p<Conclusion</p< <p<This analysis derived predictive regression models that successfully forecasted disbursement patterning for individual Global Fund malaria grants. These results indicate the utility of this approach for demand forecasting of ACT and, potentially, for other commodities procured using funding from the Global Fund. Further validation using data from other countries in different regions and environments will be necessary to confirm its generalizability.</p<
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Predicting Global Fund grant disbursements for procurement of artemisinin-based combination therapies

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