The influence of modes of climate variability on the sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation

Summary: Temporally clustered precipitation extremes can have catastrophic impacts. Therefore, understanding their drivers is paramount for risk assessment in current and future climates. Here, we model for each season 3-week extreme precipitation event counts with Poisson Generalized Linear Models...
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Autor*in:	Alexandre Tuel [verfasserIn] Olivia Martius [verfasserIn]

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2022

Schlagwörter:	Earth sciences Atmospheric science Atmosphere modeling Environmental event

Übergeordnetes Werk:	In: iScience - Elsevier, 2019, 25(2022), 3, Seite 103855-
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:25 ; year:2022 ; number:3 ; pages:103855-

Links:	Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Journal toc

DOI / URN:	10.1016/j.isci.2022.103855

Katalog-ID:	DOAJ045392544

Internformat


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publishDate	2022
allfields	10.1016/j.isci.2022.103855 doi (DE-627)DOAJ045392544 (DE-599)DOAJb69aff6242ba4c82a78b23cbedfcbb37 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Alexandre Tuel verfasserin aut The influence of modes of climate variability on the sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Summary: Temporally clustered precipitation extremes can have catastrophic impacts. Therefore, understanding their drivers is paramount for risk assessment in current and future climates. Here, we model for each season 3-week extreme precipitation event counts with Poisson Generalized Linear Models and nine major modes of climate variability as covariates. Model goodness-of-fit is highest in the tropics, particularly over the equatorial Pacific, the Maritime Continent, and East Africa, where ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the MJO are the major drivers of sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation. The IOD and MJO also matter over Southwest Asia during boreal fall and winter. In the Northern Hemisphere, the North Atlantic Oscillation impacts clustering west of the Iberian Peninsula and over Scandinavia and Greenland, and the Pacific North American pattern matters over the central/northern Pacific Ocean. Finally, our models show very little skill in the Southern Hemisphere, where temporal clustering is also less frequent. Earth sciences Atmospheric science Atmosphere modeling Environmental event Science Q Olivia Martius verfasserin aut In iScience Elsevier, 2019 25(2022), 3, Seite 103855- (DE-627)1019532106 25890042 nnns volume:25 year:2022 number:3 pages:103855- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2022.103855 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/b69aff6242ba4c82a78b23cbedfcbb37 kostenfrei http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004222001250 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2589-0042 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 25 2022 3 103855-
spelling	10.1016/j.isci.2022.103855 doi (DE-627)DOAJ045392544 (DE-599)DOAJb69aff6242ba4c82a78b23cbedfcbb37 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Alexandre Tuel verfasserin aut The influence of modes of climate variability on the sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Summary: Temporally clustered precipitation extremes can have catastrophic impacts. Therefore, understanding their drivers is paramount for risk assessment in current and future climates. Here, we model for each season 3-week extreme precipitation event counts with Poisson Generalized Linear Models and nine major modes of climate variability as covariates. Model goodness-of-fit is highest in the tropics, particularly over the equatorial Pacific, the Maritime Continent, and East Africa, where ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the MJO are the major drivers of sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation. The IOD and MJO also matter over Southwest Asia during boreal fall and winter. In the Northern Hemisphere, the North Atlantic Oscillation impacts clustering west of the Iberian Peninsula and over Scandinavia and Greenland, and the Pacific North American pattern matters over the central/northern Pacific Ocean. Finally, our models show very little skill in the Southern Hemisphere, where temporal clustering is also less frequent. Earth sciences Atmospheric science Atmosphere modeling Environmental event Science Q Olivia Martius verfasserin aut In iScience Elsevier, 2019 25(2022), 3, Seite 103855- (DE-627)1019532106 25890042 nnns volume:25 year:2022 number:3 pages:103855- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2022.103855 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/b69aff6242ba4c82a78b23cbedfcbb37 kostenfrei http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004222001250 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2589-0042 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 25 2022 3 103855-
allfields_unstemmed	10.1016/j.isci.2022.103855 doi (DE-627)DOAJ045392544 (DE-599)DOAJb69aff6242ba4c82a78b23cbedfcbb37 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Alexandre Tuel verfasserin aut The influence of modes of climate variability on the sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Summary: Temporally clustered precipitation extremes can have catastrophic impacts. Therefore, understanding their drivers is paramount for risk assessment in current and future climates. Here, we model for each season 3-week extreme precipitation event counts with Poisson Generalized Linear Models and nine major modes of climate variability as covariates. Model goodness-of-fit is highest in the tropics, particularly over the equatorial Pacific, the Maritime Continent, and East Africa, where ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the MJO are the major drivers of sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation. The IOD and MJO also matter over Southwest Asia during boreal fall and winter. In the Northern Hemisphere, the North Atlantic Oscillation impacts clustering west of the Iberian Peninsula and over Scandinavia and Greenland, and the Pacific North American pattern matters over the central/northern Pacific Ocean. Finally, our models show very little skill in the Southern Hemisphere, where temporal clustering is also less frequent. Earth sciences Atmospheric science Atmosphere modeling Environmental event Science Q Olivia Martius verfasserin aut In iScience Elsevier, 2019 25(2022), 3, Seite 103855- (DE-627)1019532106 25890042 nnns volume:25 year:2022 number:3 pages:103855- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2022.103855 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/b69aff6242ba4c82a78b23cbedfcbb37 kostenfrei http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004222001250 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2589-0042 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 25 2022 3 103855-
allfieldsGer	10.1016/j.isci.2022.103855 doi (DE-627)DOAJ045392544 (DE-599)DOAJb69aff6242ba4c82a78b23cbedfcbb37 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Alexandre Tuel verfasserin aut The influence of modes of climate variability on the sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Summary: Temporally clustered precipitation extremes can have catastrophic impacts. Therefore, understanding their drivers is paramount for risk assessment in current and future climates. Here, we model for each season 3-week extreme precipitation event counts with Poisson Generalized Linear Models and nine major modes of climate variability as covariates. Model goodness-of-fit is highest in the tropics, particularly over the equatorial Pacific, the Maritime Continent, and East Africa, where ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the MJO are the major drivers of sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation. The IOD and MJO also matter over Southwest Asia during boreal fall and winter. In the Northern Hemisphere, the North Atlantic Oscillation impacts clustering west of the Iberian Peninsula and over Scandinavia and Greenland, and the Pacific North American pattern matters over the central/northern Pacific Ocean. Finally, our models show very little skill in the Southern Hemisphere, where temporal clustering is also less frequent. Earth sciences Atmospheric science Atmosphere modeling Environmental event Science Q Olivia Martius verfasserin aut In iScience Elsevier, 2019 25(2022), 3, Seite 103855- (DE-627)1019532106 25890042 nnns volume:25 year:2022 number:3 pages:103855- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2022.103855 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/b69aff6242ba4c82a78b23cbedfcbb37 kostenfrei http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004222001250 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2589-0042 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 25 2022 3 103855-
allfieldsSound	10.1016/j.isci.2022.103855 doi (DE-627)DOAJ045392544 (DE-599)DOAJb69aff6242ba4c82a78b23cbedfcbb37 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Alexandre Tuel verfasserin aut The influence of modes of climate variability on the sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Summary: Temporally clustered precipitation extremes can have catastrophic impacts. Therefore, understanding their drivers is paramount for risk assessment in current and future climates. Here, we model for each season 3-week extreme precipitation event counts with Poisson Generalized Linear Models and nine major modes of climate variability as covariates. Model goodness-of-fit is highest in the tropics, particularly over the equatorial Pacific, the Maritime Continent, and East Africa, where ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the MJO are the major drivers of sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation. The IOD and MJO also matter over Southwest Asia during boreal fall and winter. In the Northern Hemisphere, the North Atlantic Oscillation impacts clustering west of the Iberian Peninsula and over Scandinavia and Greenland, and the Pacific North American pattern matters over the central/northern Pacific Ocean. Finally, our models show very little skill in the Southern Hemisphere, where temporal clustering is also less frequent. Earth sciences Atmospheric science Atmosphere modeling Environmental event Science Q Olivia Martius verfasserin aut In iScience Elsevier, 2019 25(2022), 3, Seite 103855- (DE-627)1019532106 25890042 nnns volume:25 year:2022 number:3 pages:103855- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2022.103855 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/b69aff6242ba4c82a78b23cbedfcbb37 kostenfrei http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004222001250 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2589-0042 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 25 2022 3 103855-
language	English
source	In iScience 25(2022), 3, Seite 103855- volume:25 year:2022 number:3 pages:103855-
sourceStr	In iScience 25(2022), 3, Seite 103855- volume:25 year:2022 number:3 pages:103855-
format_phy_str_mv	Article
institution	findex.gbv.de
topic_facet	Earth sciences Atmospheric science Atmosphere modeling Environmental event Science Q
isfreeaccess_bool	true
container_title	iScience
authorswithroles_txt_mv	Alexandre Tuel @@aut@@ Olivia Martius @@aut@@
publishDateDaySort_date	2022-01-01T00:00:00Z
hierarchy_top_id	1019532106
id	DOAJ045392544
language_de	englisch
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author	Alexandre Tuel
spellingShingle	Alexandre Tuel misc Earth sciences misc Atmospheric science misc Atmosphere modeling misc Environmental event misc Science misc Q The influence of modes of climate variability on the sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation
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topic_title	The influence of modes of climate variability on the sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation Earth sciences Atmospheric science Atmosphere modeling Environmental event
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title	The influence of modes of climate variability on the sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation
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title_full	The influence of modes of climate variability on the sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation
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title_sort	influence of modes of climate variability on the sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation
title_auth	The influence of modes of climate variability on the sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation
abstract	Summary: Temporally clustered precipitation extremes can have catastrophic impacts. Therefore, understanding their drivers is paramount for risk assessment in current and future climates. Here, we model for each season 3-week extreme precipitation event counts with Poisson Generalized Linear Models and nine major modes of climate variability as covariates. Model goodness-of-fit is highest in the tropics, particularly over the equatorial Pacific, the Maritime Continent, and East Africa, where ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the MJO are the major drivers of sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation. The IOD and MJO also matter over Southwest Asia during boreal fall and winter. In the Northern Hemisphere, the North Atlantic Oscillation impacts clustering west of the Iberian Peninsula and over Scandinavia and Greenland, and the Pacific North American pattern matters over the central/northern Pacific Ocean. Finally, our models show very little skill in the Southern Hemisphere, where temporal clustering is also less frequent.
abstractGer	Summary: Temporally clustered precipitation extremes can have catastrophic impacts. Therefore, understanding their drivers is paramount for risk assessment in current and future climates. Here, we model for each season 3-week extreme precipitation event counts with Poisson Generalized Linear Models and nine major modes of climate variability as covariates. Model goodness-of-fit is highest in the tropics, particularly over the equatorial Pacific, the Maritime Continent, and East Africa, where ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the MJO are the major drivers of sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation. The IOD and MJO also matter over Southwest Asia during boreal fall and winter. In the Northern Hemisphere, the North Atlantic Oscillation impacts clustering west of the Iberian Peninsula and over Scandinavia and Greenland, and the Pacific North American pattern matters over the central/northern Pacific Ocean. Finally, our models show very little skill in the Southern Hemisphere, where temporal clustering is also less frequent.
abstract_unstemmed	Summary: Temporally clustered precipitation extremes can have catastrophic impacts. Therefore, understanding their drivers is paramount for risk assessment in current and future climates. Here, we model for each season 3-week extreme precipitation event counts with Poisson Generalized Linear Models and nine major modes of climate variability as covariates. Model goodness-of-fit is highest in the tropics, particularly over the equatorial Pacific, the Maritime Continent, and East Africa, where ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the MJO are the major drivers of sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation. The IOD and MJO also matter over Southwest Asia during boreal fall and winter. In the Northern Hemisphere, the North Atlantic Oscillation impacts clustering west of the Iberian Peninsula and over Scandinavia and Greenland, and the Pacific North American pattern matters over the central/northern Pacific Ocean. Finally, our models show very little skill in the Southern Hemisphere, where temporal clustering is also less frequent.
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title_short	The influence of modes of climate variability on the sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation
url	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2022.103855 https://doaj.org/article/b69aff6242ba4c82a78b23cbedfcbb37 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004222001250 https://doaj.org/toc/2589-0042
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The influence of modes of climate variability on the sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation

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