APPLICATIONS OF MODERN ASSET PRICING METHODS TO PROJECT VALUATION IN OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY
Investment projects in oil & gas sector are usually characterized by long payback periods and a considerable number of risks involved. Thus, valuation of E&P projects is a complicated task implying structuring and estimation uncertainty. This paper analyses and provides examples of applicati...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Gespeichert in:
| Autor*in: |
Nechaeva M. D. [verfasserIn] Remizov O. V. [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
E-Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Russisch |
| Erschienen: |
2015 |
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| Schlagwörter: |
оценка экономической эффективности дисконтирование денежных потоков |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
In: Vestnik Novosibirskogo Gosudarstvennogo Universiteta. Seriâ: Socialʹno-Èkonomičeskie Nauki - Novosibirsk State University Press, 2017, 15 (2)(2015), Seite 48-61 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:15 (2) ; year:2015 ; pages:48-61 |
| Links: |
Link aufrufen |
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| DOI / URN: |
10.25205/1818-78622015-15-2-48-61 |
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| Katalog-ID: |
DOAJ04700391X |
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| 520 | |a Investment projects in oil & gas sector are usually characterized by long payback periods and a considerable number of risks involved. Thus, valuation of E&P projects is a complicated task implying structuring and estimation uncertainty. This paper analyses and provides examples of application “modern asset pricing” for mitigating drawbacks of DCF-method in valuation E&P projects. Essay gives examples of evaluation of projects in the oil industry (based on historical figures) and the mega-project to develop the helium resources in the east of the Russian Federation. In the first case direct verification of two methods was performed - for assessing the adequacy of the results in comparison with the dynamics of actual figures. The audit shows that "modern asset pricing" method generally gives more accurate results (with actual verification) and doesn’t underestimate the project efficiency indicators - in opposite to the conventional discounting method, which is prone to excessive determinism. In the second case, we study complicated "super long" project whose evaluation with use of standard techniques under current organizational, economic and technological conditions often gives disappointing results, which is contrary to common sense and the successful experience of helium industry in other countries. An important result is the following: modeling of helium megaproject using the methods of "modern asset pricing" allows you to not only get a more adequate estimate of the economic efficiency, but also take a new view at the approaches to implementation. | ||
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| 650 | 4 | |a инвестиционный проект | |
| 650 | 4 | |a неопределенность | |
| 650 | 4 | |a риск | |
| 650 | 4 | |a проектный анализ | |
| 650 | 4 | |a оценка экономической эффективности | |
| 650 | 4 | |a учет риска | |
| 650 | 4 | |a дисконтирование денежных потоков | |
| 650 | 4 | |a реальные опционы | |
| 650 | 4 | |a современная оценка активов | |
| 650 | 4 | |a oil and gas sector | |
| 650 | 4 | |a oil field | |
| 650 | 4 | |a petroleum production | |
| 650 | 4 | |a development of helium resources | |
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10.25205/1818-78622015-15-2-48-61 doi (DE-627)DOAJ04700391X (DE-599)DOAJad7123615590429a8315964f601f431e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb rus HB1-3840 Nechaeva M. D. verfasserin aut APPLICATIONS OF MODERN ASSET PRICING METHODS TO PROJECT VALUATION IN OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY 2015 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Investment projects in oil & gas sector are usually characterized by long payback periods and a considerable number of risks involved. Thus, valuation of E&P projects is a complicated task implying structuring and estimation uncertainty. This paper analyses and provides examples of application “modern asset pricing” for mitigating drawbacks of DCF-method in valuation E&P projects. Essay gives examples of evaluation of projects in the oil industry (based on historical figures) and the mega-project to develop the helium resources in the east of the Russian Federation. In the first case direct verification of two methods was performed - for assessing the adequacy of the results in comparison with the dynamics of actual figures. The audit shows that "modern asset pricing" method generally gives more accurate results (with actual verification) and doesn’t underestimate the project efficiency indicators - in opposite to the conventional discounting method, which is prone to excessive determinism. In the second case, we study complicated "super long" project whose evaluation with use of standard techniques under current organizational, economic and technological conditions often gives disappointing results, which is contrary to common sense and the successful experience of helium industry in other countries. An important result is the following: modeling of helium megaproject using the methods of "modern asset pricing" allows you to not only get a more adequate estimate of the economic efficiency, but also take a new view at the approaches to implementation. нефтегазовый сектор нефтяное месторождение нефтедобыча освоение ресурсов гелия инвестиционный проект неопределенность риск проектный анализ оценка экономической эффективности учет риска дисконтирование денежных потоков реальные опционы современная оценка активов oil and gas sector oil field petroleum production development of helium resources investment project uncertainty risk project analysis economic evaluation allowance for risk discounted cash flow real options modern asset pricing Economic theory. Demography Remizov O. V. verfasserin aut In Vestnik Novosibirskogo Gosudarstvennogo Universiteta. Seriâ: Socialʹno-Èkonomičeskie Nauki Novosibirsk State University Press, 2017 15 (2)(2015), Seite 48-61 (DE-627)837744687 (DE-600)2837957-3 18187862 nnns volume:15 (2) year:2015 pages:48-61 https://doi.org/10.25205/1818-78622015-15-2-48-61 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/ad7123615590429a8315964f601f431e kostenfrei https://nsu.ru/ef/vestnik_ngu_ef/2015_2_5 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1818-7862 Journal toc kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1818-7862 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2086 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 15 (2) 2015 48-61 |
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10.25205/1818-78622015-15-2-48-61 doi (DE-627)DOAJ04700391X (DE-599)DOAJad7123615590429a8315964f601f431e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb rus HB1-3840 Nechaeva M. D. verfasserin aut APPLICATIONS OF MODERN ASSET PRICING METHODS TO PROJECT VALUATION IN OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY 2015 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Investment projects in oil & gas sector are usually characterized by long payback periods and a considerable number of risks involved. Thus, valuation of E&P projects is a complicated task implying structuring and estimation uncertainty. This paper analyses and provides examples of application “modern asset pricing” for mitigating drawbacks of DCF-method in valuation E&P projects. Essay gives examples of evaluation of projects in the oil industry (based on historical figures) and the mega-project to develop the helium resources in the east of the Russian Federation. In the first case direct verification of two methods was performed - for assessing the adequacy of the results in comparison with the dynamics of actual figures. The audit shows that "modern asset pricing" method generally gives more accurate results (with actual verification) and doesn’t underestimate the project efficiency indicators - in opposite to the conventional discounting method, which is prone to excessive determinism. In the second case, we study complicated "super long" project whose evaluation with use of standard techniques under current organizational, economic and technological conditions often gives disappointing results, which is contrary to common sense and the successful experience of helium industry in other countries. An important result is the following: modeling of helium megaproject using the methods of "modern asset pricing" allows you to not only get a more adequate estimate of the economic efficiency, but also take a new view at the approaches to implementation. нефтегазовый сектор нефтяное месторождение нефтедобыча освоение ресурсов гелия инвестиционный проект неопределенность риск проектный анализ оценка экономической эффективности учет риска дисконтирование денежных потоков реальные опционы современная оценка активов oil and gas sector oil field petroleum production development of helium resources investment project uncertainty risk project analysis economic evaluation allowance for risk discounted cash flow real options modern asset pricing Economic theory. Demography Remizov O. V. verfasserin aut In Vestnik Novosibirskogo Gosudarstvennogo Universiteta. Seriâ: Socialʹno-Èkonomičeskie Nauki Novosibirsk State University Press, 2017 15 (2)(2015), Seite 48-61 (DE-627)837744687 (DE-600)2837957-3 18187862 nnns volume:15 (2) year:2015 pages:48-61 https://doi.org/10.25205/1818-78622015-15-2-48-61 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/ad7123615590429a8315964f601f431e kostenfrei https://nsu.ru/ef/vestnik_ngu_ef/2015_2_5 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1818-7862 Journal toc kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1818-7862 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2086 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 15 (2) 2015 48-61 |
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10.25205/1818-78622015-15-2-48-61 doi (DE-627)DOAJ04700391X (DE-599)DOAJad7123615590429a8315964f601f431e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb rus HB1-3840 Nechaeva M. D. verfasserin aut APPLICATIONS OF MODERN ASSET PRICING METHODS TO PROJECT VALUATION IN OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY 2015 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Investment projects in oil & gas sector are usually characterized by long payback periods and a considerable number of risks involved. Thus, valuation of E&P projects is a complicated task implying structuring and estimation uncertainty. This paper analyses and provides examples of application “modern asset pricing” for mitigating drawbacks of DCF-method in valuation E&P projects. Essay gives examples of evaluation of projects in the oil industry (based on historical figures) and the mega-project to develop the helium resources in the east of the Russian Federation. In the first case direct verification of two methods was performed - for assessing the adequacy of the results in comparison with the dynamics of actual figures. The audit shows that "modern asset pricing" method generally gives more accurate results (with actual verification) and doesn’t underestimate the project efficiency indicators - in opposite to the conventional discounting method, which is prone to excessive determinism. In the second case, we study complicated "super long" project whose evaluation with use of standard techniques under current organizational, economic and technological conditions often gives disappointing results, which is contrary to common sense and the successful experience of helium industry in other countries. An important result is the following: modeling of helium megaproject using the methods of "modern asset pricing" allows you to not only get a more adequate estimate of the economic efficiency, but also take a new view at the approaches to implementation. нефтегазовый сектор нефтяное месторождение нефтедобыча освоение ресурсов гелия инвестиционный проект неопределенность риск проектный анализ оценка экономической эффективности учет риска дисконтирование денежных потоков реальные опционы современная оценка активов oil and gas sector oil field petroleum production development of helium resources investment project uncertainty risk project analysis economic evaluation allowance for risk discounted cash flow real options modern asset pricing Economic theory. Demography Remizov O. V. verfasserin aut In Vestnik Novosibirskogo Gosudarstvennogo Universiteta. Seriâ: Socialʹno-Èkonomičeskie Nauki Novosibirsk State University Press, 2017 15 (2)(2015), Seite 48-61 (DE-627)837744687 (DE-600)2837957-3 18187862 nnns volume:15 (2) year:2015 pages:48-61 https://doi.org/10.25205/1818-78622015-15-2-48-61 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/ad7123615590429a8315964f601f431e kostenfrei https://nsu.ru/ef/vestnik_ngu_ef/2015_2_5 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1818-7862 Journal toc kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1818-7862 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2086 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 15 (2) 2015 48-61 |
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10.25205/1818-78622015-15-2-48-61 doi (DE-627)DOAJ04700391X (DE-599)DOAJad7123615590429a8315964f601f431e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb rus HB1-3840 Nechaeva M. D. verfasserin aut APPLICATIONS OF MODERN ASSET PRICING METHODS TO PROJECT VALUATION IN OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY 2015 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Investment projects in oil & gas sector are usually characterized by long payback periods and a considerable number of risks involved. Thus, valuation of E&P projects is a complicated task implying structuring and estimation uncertainty. This paper analyses and provides examples of application “modern asset pricing” for mitigating drawbacks of DCF-method in valuation E&P projects. Essay gives examples of evaluation of projects in the oil industry (based on historical figures) and the mega-project to develop the helium resources in the east of the Russian Federation. In the first case direct verification of two methods was performed - for assessing the adequacy of the results in comparison with the dynamics of actual figures. The audit shows that "modern asset pricing" method generally gives more accurate results (with actual verification) and doesn’t underestimate the project efficiency indicators - in opposite to the conventional discounting method, which is prone to excessive determinism. In the second case, we study complicated "super long" project whose evaluation with use of standard techniques under current organizational, economic and technological conditions often gives disappointing results, which is contrary to common sense and the successful experience of helium industry in other countries. An important result is the following: modeling of helium megaproject using the methods of "modern asset pricing" allows you to not only get a more adequate estimate of the economic efficiency, but also take a new view at the approaches to implementation. нефтегазовый сектор нефтяное месторождение нефтедобыча освоение ресурсов гелия инвестиционный проект неопределенность риск проектный анализ оценка экономической эффективности учет риска дисконтирование денежных потоков реальные опционы современная оценка активов oil and gas sector oil field petroleum production development of helium resources investment project uncertainty risk project analysis economic evaluation allowance for risk discounted cash flow real options modern asset pricing Economic theory. Demography Remizov O. V. verfasserin aut In Vestnik Novosibirskogo Gosudarstvennogo Universiteta. Seriâ: Socialʹno-Èkonomičeskie Nauki Novosibirsk State University Press, 2017 15 (2)(2015), Seite 48-61 (DE-627)837744687 (DE-600)2837957-3 18187862 nnns volume:15 (2) year:2015 pages:48-61 https://doi.org/10.25205/1818-78622015-15-2-48-61 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/ad7123615590429a8315964f601f431e kostenfrei https://nsu.ru/ef/vestnik_ngu_ef/2015_2_5 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1818-7862 Journal toc kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1818-7862 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2086 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 15 (2) 2015 48-61 |
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10.25205/1818-78622015-15-2-48-61 doi (DE-627)DOAJ04700391X (DE-599)DOAJad7123615590429a8315964f601f431e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb rus HB1-3840 Nechaeva M. D. verfasserin aut APPLICATIONS OF MODERN ASSET PRICING METHODS TO PROJECT VALUATION IN OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY 2015 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Investment projects in oil & gas sector are usually characterized by long payback periods and a considerable number of risks involved. Thus, valuation of E&P projects is a complicated task implying structuring and estimation uncertainty. This paper analyses and provides examples of application “modern asset pricing” for mitigating drawbacks of DCF-method in valuation E&P projects. Essay gives examples of evaluation of projects in the oil industry (based on historical figures) and the mega-project to develop the helium resources in the east of the Russian Federation. In the first case direct verification of two methods was performed - for assessing the adequacy of the results in comparison with the dynamics of actual figures. The audit shows that "modern asset pricing" method generally gives more accurate results (with actual verification) and doesn’t underestimate the project efficiency indicators - in opposite to the conventional discounting method, which is prone to excessive determinism. In the second case, we study complicated "super long" project whose evaluation with use of standard techniques under current organizational, economic and technological conditions often gives disappointing results, which is contrary to common sense and the successful experience of helium industry in other countries. An important result is the following: modeling of helium megaproject using the methods of "modern asset pricing" allows you to not only get a more adequate estimate of the economic efficiency, but also take a new view at the approaches to implementation. нефтегазовый сектор нефтяное месторождение нефтедобыча освоение ресурсов гелия инвестиционный проект неопределенность риск проектный анализ оценка экономической эффективности учет риска дисконтирование денежных потоков реальные опционы современная оценка активов oil and gas sector oil field petroleum production development of helium resources investment project uncertainty risk project analysis economic evaluation allowance for risk discounted cash flow real options modern asset pricing Economic theory. Demography Remizov O. V. verfasserin aut In Vestnik Novosibirskogo Gosudarstvennogo Universiteta. Seriâ: Socialʹno-Èkonomičeskie Nauki Novosibirsk State University Press, 2017 15 (2)(2015), Seite 48-61 (DE-627)837744687 (DE-600)2837957-3 18187862 nnns volume:15 (2) year:2015 pages:48-61 https://doi.org/10.25205/1818-78622015-15-2-48-61 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/ad7123615590429a8315964f601f431e kostenfrei https://nsu.ru/ef/vestnik_ngu_ef/2015_2_5 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1818-7862 Journal toc kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1818-7862 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2086 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 15 (2) 2015 48-61 |
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In Vestnik Novosibirskogo Gosudarstvennogo Universiteta. Seriâ: Socialʹno-Èkonomičeskie Nauki 15 (2)(2015), Seite 48-61 volume:15 (2) year:2015 pages:48-61 |
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HB1-3840 APPLICATIONS OF MODERN ASSET PRICING METHODS TO PROJECT VALUATION IN OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY нефтегазовый сектор нефтяное месторождение нефтедобыча освоение ресурсов гелия инвестиционный проект неопределенность риск проектный анализ оценка экономической эффективности учет риска дисконтирование денежных потоков реальные опционы современная оценка активов oil and gas sector oil field petroleum production development of helium resources investment project uncertainty risk project analysis economic evaluation allowance for risk discounted cash flow real options modern asset pricing |
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APPLICATIONS OF MODERN ASSET PRICING METHODS TO PROJECT VALUATION IN OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY |
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APPLICATIONS OF MODERN ASSET PRICING METHODS TO PROJECT VALUATION IN OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY |
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Nechaeva M. D. Remizov O. V. |
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applications of modern asset pricing methods to project valuation in oil and gas industry |
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APPLICATIONS OF MODERN ASSET PRICING METHODS TO PROJECT VALUATION IN OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY |
| abstract |
Investment projects in oil & gas sector are usually characterized by long payback periods and a considerable number of risks involved. Thus, valuation of E&P projects is a complicated task implying structuring and estimation uncertainty. This paper analyses and provides examples of application “modern asset pricing” for mitigating drawbacks of DCF-method in valuation E&P projects. Essay gives examples of evaluation of projects in the oil industry (based on historical figures) and the mega-project to develop the helium resources in the east of the Russian Federation. In the first case direct verification of two methods was performed - for assessing the adequacy of the results in comparison with the dynamics of actual figures. The audit shows that "modern asset pricing" method generally gives more accurate results (with actual verification) and doesn’t underestimate the project efficiency indicators - in opposite to the conventional discounting method, which is prone to excessive determinism. In the second case, we study complicated "super long" project whose evaluation with use of standard techniques under current organizational, economic and technological conditions often gives disappointing results, which is contrary to common sense and the successful experience of helium industry in other countries. An important result is the following: modeling of helium megaproject using the methods of "modern asset pricing" allows you to not only get a more adequate estimate of the economic efficiency, but also take a new view at the approaches to implementation. |
| abstractGer |
Investment projects in oil & gas sector are usually characterized by long payback periods and a considerable number of risks involved. Thus, valuation of E&P projects is a complicated task implying structuring and estimation uncertainty. This paper analyses and provides examples of application “modern asset pricing” for mitigating drawbacks of DCF-method in valuation E&P projects. Essay gives examples of evaluation of projects in the oil industry (based on historical figures) and the mega-project to develop the helium resources in the east of the Russian Federation. In the first case direct verification of two methods was performed - for assessing the adequacy of the results in comparison with the dynamics of actual figures. The audit shows that "modern asset pricing" method generally gives more accurate results (with actual verification) and doesn’t underestimate the project efficiency indicators - in opposite to the conventional discounting method, which is prone to excessive determinism. In the second case, we study complicated "super long" project whose evaluation with use of standard techniques under current organizational, economic and technological conditions often gives disappointing results, which is contrary to common sense and the successful experience of helium industry in other countries. An important result is the following: modeling of helium megaproject using the methods of "modern asset pricing" allows you to not only get a more adequate estimate of the economic efficiency, but also take a new view at the approaches to implementation. |
| abstract_unstemmed |
Investment projects in oil & gas sector are usually characterized by long payback periods and a considerable number of risks involved. Thus, valuation of E&P projects is a complicated task implying structuring and estimation uncertainty. This paper analyses and provides examples of application “modern asset pricing” for mitigating drawbacks of DCF-method in valuation E&P projects. Essay gives examples of evaluation of projects in the oil industry (based on historical figures) and the mega-project to develop the helium resources in the east of the Russian Federation. In the first case direct verification of two methods was performed - for assessing the adequacy of the results in comparison with the dynamics of actual figures. The audit shows that "modern asset pricing" method generally gives more accurate results (with actual verification) and doesn’t underestimate the project efficiency indicators - in opposite to the conventional discounting method, which is prone to excessive determinism. In the second case, we study complicated "super long" project whose evaluation with use of standard techniques under current organizational, economic and technological conditions often gives disappointing results, which is contrary to common sense and the successful experience of helium industry in other countries. An important result is the following: modeling of helium megaproject using the methods of "modern asset pricing" allows you to not only get a more adequate estimate of the economic efficiency, but also take a new view at the approaches to implementation. |
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APPLICATIONS OF MODERN ASSET PRICING METHODS TO PROJECT VALUATION IN OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY |
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