Key Environmental Factors for Rapid Intensification of the South China Sea Tropical Cyclones
Forecasting rapid intensification (RI) of the South China Sea (SCS) tropical cyclones (TCs) remains an operational challenge, mainly owing to the incomplete understanding of its physical mechanisms. Based on TC best-track data, atmospheric analysis data, and sea surface temperature data, this study...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Gespeichert in:
| Autor*in: |
Yao Chen [verfasserIn] Si Gao [verfasserIn] Xun Li [verfasserIn] Xinyong Shen [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
E-Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2021 |
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| Schlagwörter: |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
In: Frontiers in Earth Science - Frontiers Media S.A., 2014, 8(2021) |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:8 ; year:2021 |
| Links: |
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| DOI / URN: |
10.3389/feart.2020.609727 |
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| Katalog-ID: |
DOAJ05325967X |
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| 520 | |a Forecasting rapid intensification (RI) of the South China Sea (SCS) tropical cyclones (TCs) remains an operational challenge, mainly owing to the incomplete understanding of its physical mechanisms. Based on TC best-track data, atmospheric analysis data, and sea surface temperature data, this study compares temporal evolution characteristics of environmental conditions from the previous 24 h to the onset time for RI and non-RI TCs in the SCS during 2000–2018, and then identifies key factors for RI of the SCS TCs using the box difference index and stepwise regression. A combination of strong divergence in the upper troposphere and strong convergence in the boundary layer, weak deep-layer vertical wind shear, fast storm translation speed, and high TC intensification potential (i.e., maximum potential intensity minus current intensity) north of the storm center at the previous 24 h are favorable for RI of the SCS TCs, and their importance for RI is in descending order. The results may shed light on operational forecasting of rapid intensification of the SCS TCs. | ||
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10.3389/feart.2020.609727 doi (DE-627)DOAJ05325967X (DE-599)DOAJ9b81652ff10c4e58b3197b4bb869716a DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Yao Chen verfasserin aut Key Environmental Factors for Rapid Intensification of the South China Sea Tropical Cyclones 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Forecasting rapid intensification (RI) of the South China Sea (SCS) tropical cyclones (TCs) remains an operational challenge, mainly owing to the incomplete understanding of its physical mechanisms. Based on TC best-track data, atmospheric analysis data, and sea surface temperature data, this study compares temporal evolution characteristics of environmental conditions from the previous 24 h to the onset time for RI and non-RI TCs in the SCS during 2000–2018, and then identifies key factors for RI of the SCS TCs using the box difference index and stepwise regression. A combination of strong divergence in the upper troposphere and strong convergence in the boundary layer, weak deep-layer vertical wind shear, fast storm translation speed, and high TC intensification potential (i.e., maximum potential intensity minus current intensity) north of the storm center at the previous 24 h are favorable for RI of the SCS TCs, and their importance for RI is in descending order. The results may shed light on operational forecasting of rapid intensification of the SCS TCs. tropical cyclone South China Sea rapid intensification environmental factors box difference index Science Q Yao Chen verfasserin aut Si Gao verfasserin aut Si Gao verfasserin aut Xun Li verfasserin aut Xinyong Shen verfasserin aut Xinyong Shen verfasserin aut In Frontiers in Earth Science Frontiers Media S.A., 2014 8(2021) (DE-627)771399731 (DE-600)2741235-0 22966463 nnns volume:8 year:2021 https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.609727 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/9b81652ff10c4e58b3197b4bb869716a kostenfrei https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2020.609727/full kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2296-6463 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 8 2021 |
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10.3389/feart.2020.609727 doi (DE-627)DOAJ05325967X (DE-599)DOAJ9b81652ff10c4e58b3197b4bb869716a DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Yao Chen verfasserin aut Key Environmental Factors for Rapid Intensification of the South China Sea Tropical Cyclones 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Forecasting rapid intensification (RI) of the South China Sea (SCS) tropical cyclones (TCs) remains an operational challenge, mainly owing to the incomplete understanding of its physical mechanisms. Based on TC best-track data, atmospheric analysis data, and sea surface temperature data, this study compares temporal evolution characteristics of environmental conditions from the previous 24 h to the onset time for RI and non-RI TCs in the SCS during 2000–2018, and then identifies key factors for RI of the SCS TCs using the box difference index and stepwise regression. A combination of strong divergence in the upper troposphere and strong convergence in the boundary layer, weak deep-layer vertical wind shear, fast storm translation speed, and high TC intensification potential (i.e., maximum potential intensity minus current intensity) north of the storm center at the previous 24 h are favorable for RI of the SCS TCs, and their importance for RI is in descending order. The results may shed light on operational forecasting of rapid intensification of the SCS TCs. tropical cyclone South China Sea rapid intensification environmental factors box difference index Science Q Yao Chen verfasserin aut Si Gao verfasserin aut Si Gao verfasserin aut Xun Li verfasserin aut Xinyong Shen verfasserin aut Xinyong Shen verfasserin aut In Frontiers in Earth Science Frontiers Media S.A., 2014 8(2021) (DE-627)771399731 (DE-600)2741235-0 22966463 nnns volume:8 year:2021 https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.609727 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/9b81652ff10c4e58b3197b4bb869716a kostenfrei https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2020.609727/full kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2296-6463 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 8 2021 |
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10.3389/feart.2020.609727 doi (DE-627)DOAJ05325967X (DE-599)DOAJ9b81652ff10c4e58b3197b4bb869716a DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Yao Chen verfasserin aut Key Environmental Factors for Rapid Intensification of the South China Sea Tropical Cyclones 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Forecasting rapid intensification (RI) of the South China Sea (SCS) tropical cyclones (TCs) remains an operational challenge, mainly owing to the incomplete understanding of its physical mechanisms. Based on TC best-track data, atmospheric analysis data, and sea surface temperature data, this study compares temporal evolution characteristics of environmental conditions from the previous 24 h to the onset time for RI and non-RI TCs in the SCS during 2000–2018, and then identifies key factors for RI of the SCS TCs using the box difference index and stepwise regression. A combination of strong divergence in the upper troposphere and strong convergence in the boundary layer, weak deep-layer vertical wind shear, fast storm translation speed, and high TC intensification potential (i.e., maximum potential intensity minus current intensity) north of the storm center at the previous 24 h are favorable for RI of the SCS TCs, and their importance for RI is in descending order. The results may shed light on operational forecasting of rapid intensification of the SCS TCs. tropical cyclone South China Sea rapid intensification environmental factors box difference index Science Q Yao Chen verfasserin aut Si Gao verfasserin aut Si Gao verfasserin aut Xun Li verfasserin aut Xinyong Shen verfasserin aut Xinyong Shen verfasserin aut In Frontiers in Earth Science Frontiers Media S.A., 2014 8(2021) (DE-627)771399731 (DE-600)2741235-0 22966463 nnns volume:8 year:2021 https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.609727 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/9b81652ff10c4e58b3197b4bb869716a kostenfrei https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2020.609727/full kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2296-6463 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 8 2021 |
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10.3389/feart.2020.609727 doi (DE-627)DOAJ05325967X (DE-599)DOAJ9b81652ff10c4e58b3197b4bb869716a DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Yao Chen verfasserin aut Key Environmental Factors for Rapid Intensification of the South China Sea Tropical Cyclones 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Forecasting rapid intensification (RI) of the South China Sea (SCS) tropical cyclones (TCs) remains an operational challenge, mainly owing to the incomplete understanding of its physical mechanisms. Based on TC best-track data, atmospheric analysis data, and sea surface temperature data, this study compares temporal evolution characteristics of environmental conditions from the previous 24 h to the onset time for RI and non-RI TCs in the SCS during 2000–2018, and then identifies key factors for RI of the SCS TCs using the box difference index and stepwise regression. A combination of strong divergence in the upper troposphere and strong convergence in the boundary layer, weak deep-layer vertical wind shear, fast storm translation speed, and high TC intensification potential (i.e., maximum potential intensity minus current intensity) north of the storm center at the previous 24 h are favorable for RI of the SCS TCs, and their importance for RI is in descending order. The results may shed light on operational forecasting of rapid intensification of the SCS TCs. tropical cyclone South China Sea rapid intensification environmental factors box difference index Science Q Yao Chen verfasserin aut Si Gao verfasserin aut Si Gao verfasserin aut Xun Li verfasserin aut Xinyong Shen verfasserin aut Xinyong Shen verfasserin aut In Frontiers in Earth Science Frontiers Media S.A., 2014 8(2021) (DE-627)771399731 (DE-600)2741235-0 22966463 nnns volume:8 year:2021 https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.609727 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/9b81652ff10c4e58b3197b4bb869716a kostenfrei https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2020.609727/full kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2296-6463 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 8 2021 |
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10.3389/feart.2020.609727 doi (DE-627)DOAJ05325967X (DE-599)DOAJ9b81652ff10c4e58b3197b4bb869716a DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Yao Chen verfasserin aut Key Environmental Factors for Rapid Intensification of the South China Sea Tropical Cyclones 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Forecasting rapid intensification (RI) of the South China Sea (SCS) tropical cyclones (TCs) remains an operational challenge, mainly owing to the incomplete understanding of its physical mechanisms. Based on TC best-track data, atmospheric analysis data, and sea surface temperature data, this study compares temporal evolution characteristics of environmental conditions from the previous 24 h to the onset time for RI and non-RI TCs in the SCS during 2000–2018, and then identifies key factors for RI of the SCS TCs using the box difference index and stepwise regression. A combination of strong divergence in the upper troposphere and strong convergence in the boundary layer, weak deep-layer vertical wind shear, fast storm translation speed, and high TC intensification potential (i.e., maximum potential intensity minus current intensity) north of the storm center at the previous 24 h are favorable for RI of the SCS TCs, and their importance for RI is in descending order. The results may shed light on operational forecasting of rapid intensification of the SCS TCs. tropical cyclone South China Sea rapid intensification environmental factors box difference index Science Q Yao Chen verfasserin aut Si Gao verfasserin aut Si Gao verfasserin aut Xun Li verfasserin aut Xinyong Shen verfasserin aut Xinyong Shen verfasserin aut In Frontiers in Earth Science Frontiers Media S.A., 2014 8(2021) (DE-627)771399731 (DE-600)2741235-0 22966463 nnns volume:8 year:2021 https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.609727 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/9b81652ff10c4e58b3197b4bb869716a kostenfrei https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2020.609727/full kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2296-6463 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 8 2021 |
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Key Environmental Factors for Rapid Intensification of the South China Sea Tropical Cyclones |
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Forecasting rapid intensification (RI) of the South China Sea (SCS) tropical cyclones (TCs) remains an operational challenge, mainly owing to the incomplete understanding of its physical mechanisms. Based on TC best-track data, atmospheric analysis data, and sea surface temperature data, this study compares temporal evolution characteristics of environmental conditions from the previous 24 h to the onset time for RI and non-RI TCs in the SCS during 2000–2018, and then identifies key factors for RI of the SCS TCs using the box difference index and stepwise regression. A combination of strong divergence in the upper troposphere and strong convergence in the boundary layer, weak deep-layer vertical wind shear, fast storm translation speed, and high TC intensification potential (i.e., maximum potential intensity minus current intensity) north of the storm center at the previous 24 h are favorable for RI of the SCS TCs, and their importance for RI is in descending order. The results may shed light on operational forecasting of rapid intensification of the SCS TCs. |
| abstractGer |
Forecasting rapid intensification (RI) of the South China Sea (SCS) tropical cyclones (TCs) remains an operational challenge, mainly owing to the incomplete understanding of its physical mechanisms. Based on TC best-track data, atmospheric analysis data, and sea surface temperature data, this study compares temporal evolution characteristics of environmental conditions from the previous 24 h to the onset time for RI and non-RI TCs in the SCS during 2000–2018, and then identifies key factors for RI of the SCS TCs using the box difference index and stepwise regression. A combination of strong divergence in the upper troposphere and strong convergence in the boundary layer, weak deep-layer vertical wind shear, fast storm translation speed, and high TC intensification potential (i.e., maximum potential intensity minus current intensity) north of the storm center at the previous 24 h are favorable for RI of the SCS TCs, and their importance for RI is in descending order. The results may shed light on operational forecasting of rapid intensification of the SCS TCs. |
| abstract_unstemmed |
Forecasting rapid intensification (RI) of the South China Sea (SCS) tropical cyclones (TCs) remains an operational challenge, mainly owing to the incomplete understanding of its physical mechanisms. Based on TC best-track data, atmospheric analysis data, and sea surface temperature data, this study compares temporal evolution characteristics of environmental conditions from the previous 24 h to the onset time for RI and non-RI TCs in the SCS during 2000–2018, and then identifies key factors for RI of the SCS TCs using the box difference index and stepwise regression. A combination of strong divergence in the upper troposphere and strong convergence in the boundary layer, weak deep-layer vertical wind shear, fast storm translation speed, and high TC intensification potential (i.e., maximum potential intensity minus current intensity) north of the storm center at the previous 24 h are favorable for RI of the SCS TCs, and their importance for RI is in descending order. The results may shed light on operational forecasting of rapid intensification of the SCS TCs. |
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Key Environmental Factors for Rapid Intensification of the South China Sea Tropical Cyclones |
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