Impact of Climate Change on Reservoir Reliability: A Case of Bhumibol Dam in Ping River Basin, Thailand
Bhumibol Dam is the largest dam in the central region of Thailand and it serves as an important water resource. The dam’s operation relies on reservoir operating rules that were developed on the basis of the relationships among rainfall-inflow, water balance, and downstream water demand. However, du...
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| Autor*in: |
Allan Sriratana Tabucanon [verfasserIn] Areeya Rittima [verfasserIn] Detchasit Raveephinit [verfasserIn] Yutthana Phankamolsil [verfasserIn] Wudhichart Sawangphol [verfasserIn] Jidapa Kraisangka [verfasserIn] Yutthana Talaluxmana [verfasserIn] Varawoot Vudhivanich [verfasserIn] Wenchao Xue [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
E-Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2021 |
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| Schlagwörter: |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
In: Environment and Natural Resources Journal - Mahidol University, 2017, 19(2021), 4, Seite 266-281 |
|---|---|
| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:19 ; year:2021 ; number:4 ; pages:266-281 |
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Link aufrufen |
|---|
| DOI / URN: |
10.32526/ennrj/19/2021012 |
|---|
| Katalog-ID: |
DOAJ05915781X |
|---|
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| 520 | |a Bhumibol Dam is the largest dam in the central region of Thailand and it serves as an important water resource. The dam’s operation relies on reservoir operating rules that were developed on the basis of the relationships among rainfall-inflow, water balance, and downstream water demand. However, due to climate change, changing rainfall variability is expected to render the reliability of the rule curves insecure. Therefore, this study investigated the impact of climate change on the reliability of the current reservoir operation rules of Bhumibol Dam. The future scenarios from 2000 to 2099 are based on EC-EARTH under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios downscaled by RegCM4. MIKE11 HD was developed for the inflow simulation. The model generates the inflow well (R2=0.70). Generally, the trend of increasing inflow amounts is expected to continue in the dry seasons from 2000-2099, while large fluctuations of inflow are expected to be found in the wet seasons, reflecting high uncertainties. In the case of standard deviations, a larger deviation is predicted under the RCP8.5 scenario. For the reservoir’s operation in a climate change study, standard operating procedures were applied using historical release records to estimate daily reservoir release needed to serve downstream water demand in the future. It can be concluded that there is high risk of current reservoir operating rules towards the operation reliability under RCP4.5 (80% reliability), but the risk is lower under RCP8.5 (87% reliability) due to increased inflow amounts. The unmanageability occurs in the wet season, cautioning the need to redesign the rules. | ||
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10.32526/ennrj/19/2021012 doi (DE-627)DOAJ05915781X (DE-599)DOAJ5ec5bb9fac4a4ab692b50e36a942c03b DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng TD1-1066 GE1-350 Allan Sriratana Tabucanon verfasserin aut Impact of Climate Change on Reservoir Reliability: A Case of Bhumibol Dam in Ping River Basin, Thailand 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Bhumibol Dam is the largest dam in the central region of Thailand and it serves as an important water resource. The dam’s operation relies on reservoir operating rules that were developed on the basis of the relationships among rainfall-inflow, water balance, and downstream water demand. However, due to climate change, changing rainfall variability is expected to render the reliability of the rule curves insecure. Therefore, this study investigated the impact of climate change on the reliability of the current reservoir operation rules of Bhumibol Dam. The future scenarios from 2000 to 2099 are based on EC-EARTH under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios downscaled by RegCM4. MIKE11 HD was developed for the inflow simulation. The model generates the inflow well (R2=0.70). Generally, the trend of increasing inflow amounts is expected to continue in the dry seasons from 2000-2099, while large fluctuations of inflow are expected to be found in the wet seasons, reflecting high uncertainties. In the case of standard deviations, a larger deviation is predicted under the RCP8.5 scenario. For the reservoir’s operation in a climate change study, standard operating procedures were applied using historical release records to estimate daily reservoir release needed to serve downstream water demand in the future. It can be concluded that there is high risk of current reservoir operating rules towards the operation reliability under RCP4.5 (80% reliability), but the risk is lower under RCP8.5 (87% reliability) due to increased inflow amounts. The unmanageability occurs in the wet season, cautioning the need to redesign the rules. bhumibol dam climate change hydrological model ping river basin reservoir reliability Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering Environmental sciences Areeya Rittima verfasserin aut Detchasit Raveephinit verfasserin aut Yutthana Phankamolsil verfasserin aut Wudhichart Sawangphol verfasserin aut Jidapa Kraisangka verfasserin aut Yutthana Talaluxmana verfasserin aut Varawoot Vudhivanich verfasserin aut Wenchao Xue verfasserin aut In Environment and Natural Resources Journal Mahidol University, 2017 19(2021), 4, Seite 266-281 (DE-627)176064949X 24082384 nnns volume:19 year:2021 number:4 pages:266-281 https://doi.org/10.32526/ennrj/19/2021012 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/5ec5bb9fac4a4ab692b50e36a942c03b kostenfrei https://ph02.tci-thaijo.org/index.php/ennrj/article/view/243077 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1686-5456 Journal toc kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2408-2384 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ AR 19 2021 4 266-281 |
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10.32526/ennrj/19/2021012 doi (DE-627)DOAJ05915781X (DE-599)DOAJ5ec5bb9fac4a4ab692b50e36a942c03b DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng TD1-1066 GE1-350 Allan Sriratana Tabucanon verfasserin aut Impact of Climate Change on Reservoir Reliability: A Case of Bhumibol Dam in Ping River Basin, Thailand 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Bhumibol Dam is the largest dam in the central region of Thailand and it serves as an important water resource. The dam’s operation relies on reservoir operating rules that were developed on the basis of the relationships among rainfall-inflow, water balance, and downstream water demand. However, due to climate change, changing rainfall variability is expected to render the reliability of the rule curves insecure. Therefore, this study investigated the impact of climate change on the reliability of the current reservoir operation rules of Bhumibol Dam. The future scenarios from 2000 to 2099 are based on EC-EARTH under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios downscaled by RegCM4. MIKE11 HD was developed for the inflow simulation. The model generates the inflow well (R2=0.70). Generally, the trend of increasing inflow amounts is expected to continue in the dry seasons from 2000-2099, while large fluctuations of inflow are expected to be found in the wet seasons, reflecting high uncertainties. In the case of standard deviations, a larger deviation is predicted under the RCP8.5 scenario. For the reservoir’s operation in a climate change study, standard operating procedures were applied using historical release records to estimate daily reservoir release needed to serve downstream water demand in the future. It can be concluded that there is high risk of current reservoir operating rules towards the operation reliability under RCP4.5 (80% reliability), but the risk is lower under RCP8.5 (87% reliability) due to increased inflow amounts. The unmanageability occurs in the wet season, cautioning the need to redesign the rules. bhumibol dam climate change hydrological model ping river basin reservoir reliability Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering Environmental sciences Areeya Rittima verfasserin aut Detchasit Raveephinit verfasserin aut Yutthana Phankamolsil verfasserin aut Wudhichart Sawangphol verfasserin aut Jidapa Kraisangka verfasserin aut Yutthana Talaluxmana verfasserin aut Varawoot Vudhivanich verfasserin aut Wenchao Xue verfasserin aut In Environment and Natural Resources Journal Mahidol University, 2017 19(2021), 4, Seite 266-281 (DE-627)176064949X 24082384 nnns volume:19 year:2021 number:4 pages:266-281 https://doi.org/10.32526/ennrj/19/2021012 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/5ec5bb9fac4a4ab692b50e36a942c03b kostenfrei https://ph02.tci-thaijo.org/index.php/ennrj/article/view/243077 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1686-5456 Journal toc kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2408-2384 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ AR 19 2021 4 266-281 |
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10.32526/ennrj/19/2021012 doi (DE-627)DOAJ05915781X (DE-599)DOAJ5ec5bb9fac4a4ab692b50e36a942c03b DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng TD1-1066 GE1-350 Allan Sriratana Tabucanon verfasserin aut Impact of Climate Change on Reservoir Reliability: A Case of Bhumibol Dam in Ping River Basin, Thailand 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Bhumibol Dam is the largest dam in the central region of Thailand and it serves as an important water resource. The dam’s operation relies on reservoir operating rules that were developed on the basis of the relationships among rainfall-inflow, water balance, and downstream water demand. However, due to climate change, changing rainfall variability is expected to render the reliability of the rule curves insecure. Therefore, this study investigated the impact of climate change on the reliability of the current reservoir operation rules of Bhumibol Dam. The future scenarios from 2000 to 2099 are based on EC-EARTH under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios downscaled by RegCM4. MIKE11 HD was developed for the inflow simulation. The model generates the inflow well (R2=0.70). Generally, the trend of increasing inflow amounts is expected to continue in the dry seasons from 2000-2099, while large fluctuations of inflow are expected to be found in the wet seasons, reflecting high uncertainties. In the case of standard deviations, a larger deviation is predicted under the RCP8.5 scenario. For the reservoir’s operation in a climate change study, standard operating procedures were applied using historical release records to estimate daily reservoir release needed to serve downstream water demand in the future. It can be concluded that there is high risk of current reservoir operating rules towards the operation reliability under RCP4.5 (80% reliability), but the risk is lower under RCP8.5 (87% reliability) due to increased inflow amounts. The unmanageability occurs in the wet season, cautioning the need to redesign the rules. bhumibol dam climate change hydrological model ping river basin reservoir reliability Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering Environmental sciences Areeya Rittima verfasserin aut Detchasit Raveephinit verfasserin aut Yutthana Phankamolsil verfasserin aut Wudhichart Sawangphol verfasserin aut Jidapa Kraisangka verfasserin aut Yutthana Talaluxmana verfasserin aut Varawoot Vudhivanich verfasserin aut Wenchao Xue verfasserin aut In Environment and Natural Resources Journal Mahidol University, 2017 19(2021), 4, Seite 266-281 (DE-627)176064949X 24082384 nnns volume:19 year:2021 number:4 pages:266-281 https://doi.org/10.32526/ennrj/19/2021012 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/5ec5bb9fac4a4ab692b50e36a942c03b kostenfrei https://ph02.tci-thaijo.org/index.php/ennrj/article/view/243077 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1686-5456 Journal toc kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2408-2384 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ AR 19 2021 4 266-281 |
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10.32526/ennrj/19/2021012 doi (DE-627)DOAJ05915781X (DE-599)DOAJ5ec5bb9fac4a4ab692b50e36a942c03b DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng TD1-1066 GE1-350 Allan Sriratana Tabucanon verfasserin aut Impact of Climate Change on Reservoir Reliability: A Case of Bhumibol Dam in Ping River Basin, Thailand 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Bhumibol Dam is the largest dam in the central region of Thailand and it serves as an important water resource. The dam’s operation relies on reservoir operating rules that were developed on the basis of the relationships among rainfall-inflow, water balance, and downstream water demand. However, due to climate change, changing rainfall variability is expected to render the reliability of the rule curves insecure. Therefore, this study investigated the impact of climate change on the reliability of the current reservoir operation rules of Bhumibol Dam. The future scenarios from 2000 to 2099 are based on EC-EARTH under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios downscaled by RegCM4. MIKE11 HD was developed for the inflow simulation. The model generates the inflow well (R2=0.70). Generally, the trend of increasing inflow amounts is expected to continue in the dry seasons from 2000-2099, while large fluctuations of inflow are expected to be found in the wet seasons, reflecting high uncertainties. In the case of standard deviations, a larger deviation is predicted under the RCP8.5 scenario. For the reservoir’s operation in a climate change study, standard operating procedures were applied using historical release records to estimate daily reservoir release needed to serve downstream water demand in the future. It can be concluded that there is high risk of current reservoir operating rules towards the operation reliability under RCP4.5 (80% reliability), but the risk is lower under RCP8.5 (87% reliability) due to increased inflow amounts. The unmanageability occurs in the wet season, cautioning the need to redesign the rules. bhumibol dam climate change hydrological model ping river basin reservoir reliability Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering Environmental sciences Areeya Rittima verfasserin aut Detchasit Raveephinit verfasserin aut Yutthana Phankamolsil verfasserin aut Wudhichart Sawangphol verfasserin aut Jidapa Kraisangka verfasserin aut Yutthana Talaluxmana verfasserin aut Varawoot Vudhivanich verfasserin aut Wenchao Xue verfasserin aut In Environment and Natural Resources Journal Mahidol University, 2017 19(2021), 4, Seite 266-281 (DE-627)176064949X 24082384 nnns volume:19 year:2021 number:4 pages:266-281 https://doi.org/10.32526/ennrj/19/2021012 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/5ec5bb9fac4a4ab692b50e36a942c03b kostenfrei https://ph02.tci-thaijo.org/index.php/ennrj/article/view/243077 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1686-5456 Journal toc kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2408-2384 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ AR 19 2021 4 266-281 |
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10.32526/ennrj/19/2021012 doi (DE-627)DOAJ05915781X (DE-599)DOAJ5ec5bb9fac4a4ab692b50e36a942c03b DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng TD1-1066 GE1-350 Allan Sriratana Tabucanon verfasserin aut Impact of Climate Change on Reservoir Reliability: A Case of Bhumibol Dam in Ping River Basin, Thailand 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Bhumibol Dam is the largest dam in the central region of Thailand and it serves as an important water resource. The dam’s operation relies on reservoir operating rules that were developed on the basis of the relationships among rainfall-inflow, water balance, and downstream water demand. However, due to climate change, changing rainfall variability is expected to render the reliability of the rule curves insecure. Therefore, this study investigated the impact of climate change on the reliability of the current reservoir operation rules of Bhumibol Dam. The future scenarios from 2000 to 2099 are based on EC-EARTH under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios downscaled by RegCM4. MIKE11 HD was developed for the inflow simulation. The model generates the inflow well (R2=0.70). Generally, the trend of increasing inflow amounts is expected to continue in the dry seasons from 2000-2099, while large fluctuations of inflow are expected to be found in the wet seasons, reflecting high uncertainties. In the case of standard deviations, a larger deviation is predicted under the RCP8.5 scenario. For the reservoir’s operation in a climate change study, standard operating procedures were applied using historical release records to estimate daily reservoir release needed to serve downstream water demand in the future. It can be concluded that there is high risk of current reservoir operating rules towards the operation reliability under RCP4.5 (80% reliability), but the risk is lower under RCP8.5 (87% reliability) due to increased inflow amounts. The unmanageability occurs in the wet season, cautioning the need to redesign the rules. bhumibol dam climate change hydrological model ping river basin reservoir reliability Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering Environmental sciences Areeya Rittima verfasserin aut Detchasit Raveephinit verfasserin aut Yutthana Phankamolsil verfasserin aut Wudhichart Sawangphol verfasserin aut Jidapa Kraisangka verfasserin aut Yutthana Talaluxmana verfasserin aut Varawoot Vudhivanich verfasserin aut Wenchao Xue verfasserin aut In Environment and Natural Resources Journal Mahidol University, 2017 19(2021), 4, Seite 266-281 (DE-627)176064949X 24082384 nnns volume:19 year:2021 number:4 pages:266-281 https://doi.org/10.32526/ennrj/19/2021012 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/5ec5bb9fac4a4ab692b50e36a942c03b kostenfrei https://ph02.tci-thaijo.org/index.php/ennrj/article/view/243077 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1686-5456 Journal toc kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2408-2384 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ AR 19 2021 4 266-281 |
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Allan Sriratana Tabucanon misc TD1-1066 misc GE1-350 misc bhumibol dam misc climate change misc hydrological model misc ping river basin misc reservoir reliability misc Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering misc Environmental sciences Impact of Climate Change on Reservoir Reliability: A Case of Bhumibol Dam in Ping River Basin, Thailand |
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TD1-1066 GE1-350 Impact of Climate Change on Reservoir Reliability: A Case of Bhumibol Dam in Ping River Basin, Thailand bhumibol dam climate change hydrological model ping river basin reservoir reliability |
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Impact of Climate Change on Reservoir Reliability: A Case of Bhumibol Dam in Ping River Basin, Thailand |
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Bhumibol Dam is the largest dam in the central region of Thailand and it serves as an important water resource. The dam’s operation relies on reservoir operating rules that were developed on the basis of the relationships among rainfall-inflow, water balance, and downstream water demand. However, due to climate change, changing rainfall variability is expected to render the reliability of the rule curves insecure. Therefore, this study investigated the impact of climate change on the reliability of the current reservoir operation rules of Bhumibol Dam. The future scenarios from 2000 to 2099 are based on EC-EARTH under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios downscaled by RegCM4. MIKE11 HD was developed for the inflow simulation. The model generates the inflow well (R2=0.70). Generally, the trend of increasing inflow amounts is expected to continue in the dry seasons from 2000-2099, while large fluctuations of inflow are expected to be found in the wet seasons, reflecting high uncertainties. In the case of standard deviations, a larger deviation is predicted under the RCP8.5 scenario. For the reservoir’s operation in a climate change study, standard operating procedures were applied using historical release records to estimate daily reservoir release needed to serve downstream water demand in the future. It can be concluded that there is high risk of current reservoir operating rules towards the operation reliability under RCP4.5 (80% reliability), but the risk is lower under RCP8.5 (87% reliability) due to increased inflow amounts. The unmanageability occurs in the wet season, cautioning the need to redesign the rules. |
| abstractGer |
Bhumibol Dam is the largest dam in the central region of Thailand and it serves as an important water resource. The dam’s operation relies on reservoir operating rules that were developed on the basis of the relationships among rainfall-inflow, water balance, and downstream water demand. However, due to climate change, changing rainfall variability is expected to render the reliability of the rule curves insecure. Therefore, this study investigated the impact of climate change on the reliability of the current reservoir operation rules of Bhumibol Dam. The future scenarios from 2000 to 2099 are based on EC-EARTH under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios downscaled by RegCM4. MIKE11 HD was developed for the inflow simulation. The model generates the inflow well (R2=0.70). Generally, the trend of increasing inflow amounts is expected to continue in the dry seasons from 2000-2099, while large fluctuations of inflow are expected to be found in the wet seasons, reflecting high uncertainties. In the case of standard deviations, a larger deviation is predicted under the RCP8.5 scenario. For the reservoir’s operation in a climate change study, standard operating procedures were applied using historical release records to estimate daily reservoir release needed to serve downstream water demand in the future. It can be concluded that there is high risk of current reservoir operating rules towards the operation reliability under RCP4.5 (80% reliability), but the risk is lower under RCP8.5 (87% reliability) due to increased inflow amounts. The unmanageability occurs in the wet season, cautioning the need to redesign the rules. |
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Bhumibol Dam is the largest dam in the central region of Thailand and it serves as an important water resource. The dam’s operation relies on reservoir operating rules that were developed on the basis of the relationships among rainfall-inflow, water balance, and downstream water demand. However, due to climate change, changing rainfall variability is expected to render the reliability of the rule curves insecure. Therefore, this study investigated the impact of climate change on the reliability of the current reservoir operation rules of Bhumibol Dam. The future scenarios from 2000 to 2099 are based on EC-EARTH under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios downscaled by RegCM4. MIKE11 HD was developed for the inflow simulation. The model generates the inflow well (R2=0.70). Generally, the trend of increasing inflow amounts is expected to continue in the dry seasons from 2000-2099, while large fluctuations of inflow are expected to be found in the wet seasons, reflecting high uncertainties. In the case of standard deviations, a larger deviation is predicted under the RCP8.5 scenario. For the reservoir’s operation in a climate change study, standard operating procedures were applied using historical release records to estimate daily reservoir release needed to serve downstream water demand in the future. It can be concluded that there is high risk of current reservoir operating rules towards the operation reliability under RCP4.5 (80% reliability), but the risk is lower under RCP8.5 (87% reliability) due to increased inflow amounts. The unmanageability occurs in the wet season, cautioning the need to redesign the rules. |
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Impact of Climate Change on Reservoir Reliability: A Case of Bhumibol Dam in Ping River Basin, Thailand |
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