Market Pressure on Currencies in Crises. Shadow Exchange Rate Experience of Argentina and Switzerland 2011-2015

Aim/purpose - The aim of this article is to present two cases of exchange rate controls in Switzerland and Argentina. The paper also examines the problem of presence and evaluation of shadow exchange rate in both countries. Design/methodology/approach - The shadow exchange rates are estimated using...
Ausführliche Beschreibung

Gespeichert in:

Autor*in:	Marcin Gruszczyński [verfasserIn] Katarzyna Dąbrowska-Gruszczyńska [verfasserIn]

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2017

Schlagwörter:	Exchange rates Financial crisis Cash flows

Übergeordnetes Werk:	In: Journal of Economics and Management - Sciendo, 2018, (2017), 30, Seite 58-69
Übergeordnetes Werk:	year:2017 ; number:30 ; pages:58-69

Links:	Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Journal toc

DOI / URN:	10.22367/jem.2017.30.03

Katalog-ID:	DOAJ06311397X

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author	Marcin Gruszczyński
spellingShingle	Marcin Gruszczyński misc HD28-70 misc HB1-3840 misc Exchange rates misc Financial crisis misc Cash flows misc Management. Industrial management misc Economic theory. Demography Market Pressure on Currencies in Crises. Shadow Exchange Rate Experience of Argentina and Switzerland 2011-2015
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topic_title	HD28-70 HB1-3840 Market Pressure on Currencies in Crises. Shadow Exchange Rate Experience of Argentina and Switzerland 2011-2015 Exchange rates Financial crisis Cash flows
topic	misc HD28-70 misc HB1-3840 misc Exchange rates misc Financial crisis misc Cash flows misc Management. Industrial management misc Economic theory. Demography
topic_unstemmed	misc HD28-70 misc HB1-3840 misc Exchange rates misc Financial crisis misc Cash flows misc Management. Industrial management misc Economic theory. Demography
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title	Market Pressure on Currencies in Crises. Shadow Exchange Rate Experience of Argentina and Switzerland 2011-2015
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title_sort	market pressure on currencies in crises. shadow exchange rate experience of argentina and switzerland 2011-2015
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title_auth	Market Pressure on Currencies in Crises. Shadow Exchange Rate Experience of Argentina and Switzerland 2011-2015
abstract	Aim/purpose - The aim of this article is to present two cases of exchange rate controls in Switzerland and Argentina. The paper also examines the problem of presence and evaluation of shadow exchange rate in both countries. Design/methodology/approach - The shadow exchange rates are estimated using speculative pressure index concept that emphasizes the importance of not only exchange rate movements but also changes in foreign exchange reserves as well as interest rate differentials. The research sample covers Switzerland 2001-2016 and Argentina 2006-2016 (for shadow exchange rate simulation: 2011-2014 and 2011-2015, respectively). Findings - The conclusions drawn from international experience and conducted empirical analysis are positive. In both cases, shadow exchange rates were close to market rates after the removal of controls. During the restrictions periods shadow rates followed the intuition given by speculative pressure index concept (and by monetary approach, simultaneously). Research implications/limitations - The research suggests that market forces in both countries were still able to restore exchange rates to market values after the period of control. However, it is obvious that it is very difficult to prove that shadow rates were always determined by economical forces and close to their long-term equilibrium values. Originality/value/contribution - The original approach combines two important economic concepts - the idea of shadow exchange rate and the methodology of index of speculative pressure. Combined together they can help to analyze two interesting and relatively new cases of foreign exchange controls in Switzerland and Argentina. The results can be valuable for economists, researchers and politicians who support or reject the idea of controlling macroeconomic parameters in modern, open economy.
abstractGer	Aim/purpose - The aim of this article is to present two cases of exchange rate controls in Switzerland and Argentina. The paper also examines the problem of presence and evaluation of shadow exchange rate in both countries. Design/methodology/approach - The shadow exchange rates are estimated using speculative pressure index concept that emphasizes the importance of not only exchange rate movements but also changes in foreign exchange reserves as well as interest rate differentials. The research sample covers Switzerland 2001-2016 and Argentina 2006-2016 (for shadow exchange rate simulation: 2011-2014 and 2011-2015, respectively). Findings - The conclusions drawn from international experience and conducted empirical analysis are positive. In both cases, shadow exchange rates were close to market rates after the removal of controls. During the restrictions periods shadow rates followed the intuition given by speculative pressure index concept (and by monetary approach, simultaneously). Research implications/limitations - The research suggests that market forces in both countries were still able to restore exchange rates to market values after the period of control. However, it is obvious that it is very difficult to prove that shadow rates were always determined by economical forces and close to their long-term equilibrium values. Originality/value/contribution - The original approach combines two important economic concepts - the idea of shadow exchange rate and the methodology of index of speculative pressure. Combined together they can help to analyze two interesting and relatively new cases of foreign exchange controls in Switzerland and Argentina. The results can be valuable for economists, researchers and politicians who support or reject the idea of controlling macroeconomic parameters in modern, open economy.
abstract_unstemmed	Aim/purpose - The aim of this article is to present two cases of exchange rate controls in Switzerland and Argentina. The paper also examines the problem of presence and evaluation of shadow exchange rate in both countries. Design/methodology/approach - The shadow exchange rates are estimated using speculative pressure index concept that emphasizes the importance of not only exchange rate movements but also changes in foreign exchange reserves as well as interest rate differentials. The research sample covers Switzerland 2001-2016 and Argentina 2006-2016 (for shadow exchange rate simulation: 2011-2014 and 2011-2015, respectively). Findings - The conclusions drawn from international experience and conducted empirical analysis are positive. In both cases, shadow exchange rates were close to market rates after the removal of controls. During the restrictions periods shadow rates followed the intuition given by speculative pressure index concept (and by monetary approach, simultaneously). Research implications/limitations - The research suggests that market forces in both countries were still able to restore exchange rates to market values after the period of control. However, it is obvious that it is very difficult to prove that shadow rates were always determined by economical forces and close to their long-term equilibrium values. Originality/value/contribution - The original approach combines two important economic concepts - the idea of shadow exchange rate and the methodology of index of speculative pressure. Combined together they can help to analyze two interesting and relatively new cases of foreign exchange controls in Switzerland and Argentina. The results can be valuable for economists, researchers and politicians who support or reject the idea of controlling macroeconomic parameters in modern, open economy.
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title_short	Market Pressure on Currencies in Crises. Shadow Exchange Rate Experience of Argentina and Switzerland 2011-2015
url	https://doi.org/10.22367/jem.2017.30.03 https://doaj.org/article/a3d865098dc24f6f9136992a200c86f6 https://www.ue.katowice.pl/fileadmin/user_upload/wydawnictwo/JEM_Artyku%C5%82y_1_30/JEM_30/03.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1732-1948
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Design/methodology/approach - The shadow exchange rates are estimated using speculative pressure index concept that emphasizes the importance of not only exchange rate movements but also changes in foreign exchange reserves as well as interest rate differentials. The research sample covers Switzerland 2001-2016 and Argentina 2006-2016 (for shadow exchange rate simulation: 2011-2014 and 2011-2015, respectively). Findings - The conclusions drawn from international experience and conducted empirical analysis are positive. In both cases, shadow exchange rates were close to market rates after the removal of controls. During the restrictions periods shadow rates followed the intuition given by speculative pressure index concept (and by monetary approach, simultaneously). Research implications/limitations - The research suggests that market forces in both countries were still able to restore exchange rates to market values after the period of control. However, it is obvious that it is very difficult to prove that shadow rates were always determined by economical forces and close to their long-term equilibrium values. Originality/value/contribution - The original approach combines two important economic concepts - the idea of shadow exchange rate and the methodology of index of speculative pressure. Combined together they can help to analyze two interesting and relatively new cases of foreign exchange controls in Switzerland and Argentina. The results can be valuable for economists, researchers and politicians who support or reject the idea of controlling macroeconomic parameters in modern, open economy.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Exchange rates</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Financial crisis</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Cash flows</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Management. Industrial management</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Economic theory. 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Market Pressure on Currencies in Crises. Shadow Exchange Rate Experience of Argentina and Switzerland 2011-2015

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