Comparison of six statistical methods for interrupted time series studies: empirical evaluation of 190 published series
Abstract Background The Interrupted Time Series (ITS) is a quasi-experimental design commonly used in public health to evaluate the impact of interventions or exposures. Multiple statistical methods are available to analyse data from ITS studies, but no empirical investigation has examined how the d...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Autor*in: |
Simon L. Turner [verfasserIn] Amalia Karahalios [verfasserIn] Andrew B. Forbes [verfasserIn] Monica Taljaard [verfasserIn] Jeremy M. Grimshaw [verfasserIn] Joanne E. McKenzie [verfasserIn] |
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Englisch |
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2021 |
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In: BMC Medical Research Methodology - BMC, 2003, 21(2021), 1, Seite 19 |
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volume:21 ; year:2021 ; number:1 ; pages:19 |
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DOI / URN: |
10.1186/s12874-021-01306-w |
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Katalog-ID: |
DOAJ068240694 |
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520 | |a Abstract Background The Interrupted Time Series (ITS) is a quasi-experimental design commonly used in public health to evaluate the impact of interventions or exposures. Multiple statistical methods are available to analyse data from ITS studies, but no empirical investigation has examined how the different methods compare when applied to real-world datasets. Methods A random sample of 200 ITS studies identified in a previous methods review were included. Time series data from each of these studies was sought. Each dataset was re-analysed using six statistical methods. Point and confidence interval estimates for level and slope changes, standard errors, p-values and estimates of autocorrelation were compared between methods. Results From the 200 ITS studies, including 230 time series, 190 datasets were obtained. We found that the choice of statistical method can importantly affect the level and slope change point estimates, their standard errors, width of confidence intervals and p-values. Statistical significance (categorised at the 5% level) often differed across the pairwise comparisons of methods, ranging from 4 to 25% disagreement. Estimates of autocorrelation differed depending on the method used and the length of the series. Conclusions The choice of statistical method in ITS studies can lead to substantially different conclusions about the impact of the interruption. Pre-specification of the statistical method is encouraged, and naive conclusions based on statistical significance should be avoided. | ||
650 | 4 | |a Autocorrelation | |
650 | 4 | |a Interrupted Time Series | |
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700 | 0 | |a Joanne E. McKenzie |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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10.1186/s12874-021-01306-w doi (DE-627)DOAJ068240694 (DE-599)DOAJ6e37f53308014b7588fa38963accb2ca DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng R5-920 Simon L. Turner verfasserin aut Comparison of six statistical methods for interrupted time series studies: empirical evaluation of 190 published series 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract Background The Interrupted Time Series (ITS) is a quasi-experimental design commonly used in public health to evaluate the impact of interventions or exposures. Multiple statistical methods are available to analyse data from ITS studies, but no empirical investigation has examined how the different methods compare when applied to real-world datasets. Methods A random sample of 200 ITS studies identified in a previous methods review were included. Time series data from each of these studies was sought. Each dataset was re-analysed using six statistical methods. Point and confidence interval estimates for level and slope changes, standard errors, p-values and estimates of autocorrelation were compared between methods. Results From the 200 ITS studies, including 230 time series, 190 datasets were obtained. We found that the choice of statistical method can importantly affect the level and slope change point estimates, their standard errors, width of confidence intervals and p-values. Statistical significance (categorised at the 5% level) often differed across the pairwise comparisons of methods, ranging from 4 to 25% disagreement. Estimates of autocorrelation differed depending on the method used and the length of the series. Conclusions The choice of statistical method in ITS studies can lead to substantially different conclusions about the impact of the interruption. Pre-specification of the statistical method is encouraged, and naive conclusions based on statistical significance should be avoided. Autocorrelation Interrupted Time Series Public Health Segmented Regression Statistical Methods Empirical study Medicine (General) Amalia Karahalios verfasserin aut Andrew B. Forbes verfasserin aut Monica Taljaard verfasserin aut Jeremy M. Grimshaw verfasserin aut Joanne E. McKenzie verfasserin aut In BMC Medical Research Methodology BMC, 2003 21(2021), 1, Seite 19 (DE-627)326643818 (DE-600)2041362-2 14712288 nnns volume:21 year:2021 number:1 pages:19 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-021-01306-w kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/6e37f53308014b7588fa38963accb2ca kostenfrei https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-021-01306-w kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1471-2288 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 21 2021 1 19 |
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10.1186/s12874-021-01306-w doi (DE-627)DOAJ068240694 (DE-599)DOAJ6e37f53308014b7588fa38963accb2ca DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng R5-920 Simon L. Turner verfasserin aut Comparison of six statistical methods for interrupted time series studies: empirical evaluation of 190 published series 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract Background The Interrupted Time Series (ITS) is a quasi-experimental design commonly used in public health to evaluate the impact of interventions or exposures. Multiple statistical methods are available to analyse data from ITS studies, but no empirical investigation has examined how the different methods compare when applied to real-world datasets. Methods A random sample of 200 ITS studies identified in a previous methods review were included. Time series data from each of these studies was sought. Each dataset was re-analysed using six statistical methods. Point and confidence interval estimates for level and slope changes, standard errors, p-values and estimates of autocorrelation were compared between methods. Results From the 200 ITS studies, including 230 time series, 190 datasets were obtained. We found that the choice of statistical method can importantly affect the level and slope change point estimates, their standard errors, width of confidence intervals and p-values. Statistical significance (categorised at the 5% level) often differed across the pairwise comparisons of methods, ranging from 4 to 25% disagreement. Estimates of autocorrelation differed depending on the method used and the length of the series. Conclusions The choice of statistical method in ITS studies can lead to substantially different conclusions about the impact of the interruption. Pre-specification of the statistical method is encouraged, and naive conclusions based on statistical significance should be avoided. Autocorrelation Interrupted Time Series Public Health Segmented Regression Statistical Methods Empirical study Medicine (General) Amalia Karahalios verfasserin aut Andrew B. Forbes verfasserin aut Monica Taljaard verfasserin aut Jeremy M. Grimshaw verfasserin aut Joanne E. McKenzie verfasserin aut In BMC Medical Research Methodology BMC, 2003 21(2021), 1, Seite 19 (DE-627)326643818 (DE-600)2041362-2 14712288 nnns volume:21 year:2021 number:1 pages:19 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-021-01306-w kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/6e37f53308014b7588fa38963accb2ca kostenfrei https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-021-01306-w kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1471-2288 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 21 2021 1 19 |
allfields_unstemmed |
10.1186/s12874-021-01306-w doi (DE-627)DOAJ068240694 (DE-599)DOAJ6e37f53308014b7588fa38963accb2ca DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng R5-920 Simon L. Turner verfasserin aut Comparison of six statistical methods for interrupted time series studies: empirical evaluation of 190 published series 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract Background The Interrupted Time Series (ITS) is a quasi-experimental design commonly used in public health to evaluate the impact of interventions or exposures. Multiple statistical methods are available to analyse data from ITS studies, but no empirical investigation has examined how the different methods compare when applied to real-world datasets. Methods A random sample of 200 ITS studies identified in a previous methods review were included. Time series data from each of these studies was sought. Each dataset was re-analysed using six statistical methods. Point and confidence interval estimates for level and slope changes, standard errors, p-values and estimates of autocorrelation were compared between methods. Results From the 200 ITS studies, including 230 time series, 190 datasets were obtained. We found that the choice of statistical method can importantly affect the level and slope change point estimates, their standard errors, width of confidence intervals and p-values. Statistical significance (categorised at the 5% level) often differed across the pairwise comparisons of methods, ranging from 4 to 25% disagreement. Estimates of autocorrelation differed depending on the method used and the length of the series. Conclusions The choice of statistical method in ITS studies can lead to substantially different conclusions about the impact of the interruption. Pre-specification of the statistical method is encouraged, and naive conclusions based on statistical significance should be avoided. Autocorrelation Interrupted Time Series Public Health Segmented Regression Statistical Methods Empirical study Medicine (General) Amalia Karahalios verfasserin aut Andrew B. Forbes verfasserin aut Monica Taljaard verfasserin aut Jeremy M. Grimshaw verfasserin aut Joanne E. McKenzie verfasserin aut In BMC Medical Research Methodology BMC, 2003 21(2021), 1, Seite 19 (DE-627)326643818 (DE-600)2041362-2 14712288 nnns volume:21 year:2021 number:1 pages:19 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-021-01306-w kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/6e37f53308014b7588fa38963accb2ca kostenfrei https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-021-01306-w kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1471-2288 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 21 2021 1 19 |
allfieldsGer |
10.1186/s12874-021-01306-w doi (DE-627)DOAJ068240694 (DE-599)DOAJ6e37f53308014b7588fa38963accb2ca DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng R5-920 Simon L. Turner verfasserin aut Comparison of six statistical methods for interrupted time series studies: empirical evaluation of 190 published series 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract Background The Interrupted Time Series (ITS) is a quasi-experimental design commonly used in public health to evaluate the impact of interventions or exposures. Multiple statistical methods are available to analyse data from ITS studies, but no empirical investigation has examined how the different methods compare when applied to real-world datasets. Methods A random sample of 200 ITS studies identified in a previous methods review were included. Time series data from each of these studies was sought. Each dataset was re-analysed using six statistical methods. Point and confidence interval estimates for level and slope changes, standard errors, p-values and estimates of autocorrelation were compared between methods. Results From the 200 ITS studies, including 230 time series, 190 datasets were obtained. We found that the choice of statistical method can importantly affect the level and slope change point estimates, their standard errors, width of confidence intervals and p-values. Statistical significance (categorised at the 5% level) often differed across the pairwise comparisons of methods, ranging from 4 to 25% disagreement. Estimates of autocorrelation differed depending on the method used and the length of the series. Conclusions The choice of statistical method in ITS studies can lead to substantially different conclusions about the impact of the interruption. Pre-specification of the statistical method is encouraged, and naive conclusions based on statistical significance should be avoided. Autocorrelation Interrupted Time Series Public Health Segmented Regression Statistical Methods Empirical study Medicine (General) Amalia Karahalios verfasserin aut Andrew B. Forbes verfasserin aut Monica Taljaard verfasserin aut Jeremy M. Grimshaw verfasserin aut Joanne E. McKenzie verfasserin aut In BMC Medical Research Methodology BMC, 2003 21(2021), 1, Seite 19 (DE-627)326643818 (DE-600)2041362-2 14712288 nnns volume:21 year:2021 number:1 pages:19 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-021-01306-w kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/6e37f53308014b7588fa38963accb2ca kostenfrei https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-021-01306-w kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1471-2288 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 21 2021 1 19 |
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10.1186/s12874-021-01306-w doi (DE-627)DOAJ068240694 (DE-599)DOAJ6e37f53308014b7588fa38963accb2ca DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng R5-920 Simon L. Turner verfasserin aut Comparison of six statistical methods for interrupted time series studies: empirical evaluation of 190 published series 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract Background The Interrupted Time Series (ITS) is a quasi-experimental design commonly used in public health to evaluate the impact of interventions or exposures. Multiple statistical methods are available to analyse data from ITS studies, but no empirical investigation has examined how the different methods compare when applied to real-world datasets. Methods A random sample of 200 ITS studies identified in a previous methods review were included. Time series data from each of these studies was sought. Each dataset was re-analysed using six statistical methods. Point and confidence interval estimates for level and slope changes, standard errors, p-values and estimates of autocorrelation were compared between methods. Results From the 200 ITS studies, including 230 time series, 190 datasets were obtained. We found that the choice of statistical method can importantly affect the level and slope change point estimates, their standard errors, width of confidence intervals and p-values. Statistical significance (categorised at the 5% level) often differed across the pairwise comparisons of methods, ranging from 4 to 25% disagreement. Estimates of autocorrelation differed depending on the method used and the length of the series. Conclusions The choice of statistical method in ITS studies can lead to substantially different conclusions about the impact of the interruption. Pre-specification of the statistical method is encouraged, and naive conclusions based on statistical significance should be avoided. Autocorrelation Interrupted Time Series Public Health Segmented Regression Statistical Methods Empirical study Medicine (General) Amalia Karahalios verfasserin aut Andrew B. Forbes verfasserin aut Monica Taljaard verfasserin aut Jeremy M. Grimshaw verfasserin aut Joanne E. McKenzie verfasserin aut In BMC Medical Research Methodology BMC, 2003 21(2021), 1, Seite 19 (DE-627)326643818 (DE-600)2041362-2 14712288 nnns volume:21 year:2021 number:1 pages:19 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-021-01306-w kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/6e37f53308014b7588fa38963accb2ca kostenfrei https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-021-01306-w kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1471-2288 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 21 2021 1 19 |
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comparison of six statistical methods for interrupted time series studies: empirical evaluation of 190 published series |
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title_auth |
Comparison of six statistical methods for interrupted time series studies: empirical evaluation of 190 published series |
abstract |
Abstract Background The Interrupted Time Series (ITS) is a quasi-experimental design commonly used in public health to evaluate the impact of interventions or exposures. Multiple statistical methods are available to analyse data from ITS studies, but no empirical investigation has examined how the different methods compare when applied to real-world datasets. Methods A random sample of 200 ITS studies identified in a previous methods review were included. Time series data from each of these studies was sought. Each dataset was re-analysed using six statistical methods. Point and confidence interval estimates for level and slope changes, standard errors, p-values and estimates of autocorrelation were compared between methods. Results From the 200 ITS studies, including 230 time series, 190 datasets were obtained. We found that the choice of statistical method can importantly affect the level and slope change point estimates, their standard errors, width of confidence intervals and p-values. Statistical significance (categorised at the 5% level) often differed across the pairwise comparisons of methods, ranging from 4 to 25% disagreement. Estimates of autocorrelation differed depending on the method used and the length of the series. Conclusions The choice of statistical method in ITS studies can lead to substantially different conclusions about the impact of the interruption. Pre-specification of the statistical method is encouraged, and naive conclusions based on statistical significance should be avoided. |
abstractGer |
Abstract Background The Interrupted Time Series (ITS) is a quasi-experimental design commonly used in public health to evaluate the impact of interventions or exposures. Multiple statistical methods are available to analyse data from ITS studies, but no empirical investigation has examined how the different methods compare when applied to real-world datasets. Methods A random sample of 200 ITS studies identified in a previous methods review were included. Time series data from each of these studies was sought. Each dataset was re-analysed using six statistical methods. Point and confidence interval estimates for level and slope changes, standard errors, p-values and estimates of autocorrelation were compared between methods. Results From the 200 ITS studies, including 230 time series, 190 datasets were obtained. We found that the choice of statistical method can importantly affect the level and slope change point estimates, their standard errors, width of confidence intervals and p-values. Statistical significance (categorised at the 5% level) often differed across the pairwise comparisons of methods, ranging from 4 to 25% disagreement. Estimates of autocorrelation differed depending on the method used and the length of the series. Conclusions The choice of statistical method in ITS studies can lead to substantially different conclusions about the impact of the interruption. Pre-specification of the statistical method is encouraged, and naive conclusions based on statistical significance should be avoided. |
abstract_unstemmed |
Abstract Background The Interrupted Time Series (ITS) is a quasi-experimental design commonly used in public health to evaluate the impact of interventions or exposures. Multiple statistical methods are available to analyse data from ITS studies, but no empirical investigation has examined how the different methods compare when applied to real-world datasets. Methods A random sample of 200 ITS studies identified in a previous methods review were included. Time series data from each of these studies was sought. Each dataset was re-analysed using six statistical methods. Point and confidence interval estimates for level and slope changes, standard errors, p-values and estimates of autocorrelation were compared between methods. Results From the 200 ITS studies, including 230 time series, 190 datasets were obtained. We found that the choice of statistical method can importantly affect the level and slope change point estimates, their standard errors, width of confidence intervals and p-values. Statistical significance (categorised at the 5% level) often differed across the pairwise comparisons of methods, ranging from 4 to 25% disagreement. Estimates of autocorrelation differed depending on the method used and the length of the series. Conclusions The choice of statistical method in ITS studies can lead to substantially different conclusions about the impact of the interruption. Pre-specification of the statistical method is encouraged, and naive conclusions based on statistical significance should be avoided. |
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Comparison of six statistical methods for interrupted time series studies: empirical evaluation of 190 published series |
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https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-021-01306-w https://doaj.org/article/6e37f53308014b7588fa38963accb2ca https://doaj.org/toc/1471-2288 |
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Amalia Karahalios Andrew B. Forbes Monica Taljaard Jeremy M. Grimshaw Joanne E. McKenzie |
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