Short Time Solar Power Forecasting Using Persistence Extreme Learning Machine Approach
Solar energy in nature is irregular, so photovoltaic (PV) power performance is intermittent, and highly dependent on solar radiation, temperature and other meteorological parameters. Accurately predicting solar power to ensure the economic operation of micro-grids (MG) and smart grids is an importan...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Autor*in: |
Xiang Xiaoyan [verfasserIn] Sun Yao [verfasserIn] Deng Xiaofei [verfasserIn] |
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Format: |
E-Artikel |
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Sprache: |
Englisch ; Französisch |
Erschienen: |
2021 |
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Übergeordnetes Werk: |
In: E3S Web of Conferences - EDP Sciences, 2013, 294, p 01002(2021) |
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Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:294, p 01002 ; year:2021 |
Links: |
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DOI / URN: |
10.1051/e3sconf/202129401002 |
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Katalog-ID: |
DOAJ070212414 |
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10.1051/e3sconf/202129401002 doi (DE-627)DOAJ070212414 (DE-599)DOAJ2a18263ea3bb4b01a8e690ef9932f9b2 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng fre GE1-350 Xiang Xiaoyan verfasserin aut Short Time Solar Power Forecasting Using Persistence Extreme Learning Machine Approach 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Solar energy in nature is irregular, so photovoltaic (PV) power performance is intermittent, and highly dependent on solar radiation, temperature and other meteorological parameters. Accurately predicting solar power to ensure the economic operation of micro-grids (MG) and smart grids is an important challenge to improve the large-scale application of PV to traditional power systems. In this paper, a hybrid machine learning algorithm is proposed to predict solar power accurately, and Persistence Extreme Learning Machine(P-ELM) algorithm is used to train the system. The input parameters are the temperature, sunshine and solar power output at the time of i, and the output parameters are the temperature, sunshine and solar power output at the time i+1. The proposed method can realize the prediction of solar power output 20 minutes in advance. Mean absolute error (MAE) and root-mean-square error (RMSE) are used to characterize the performance of P-ELM algorithm, and compared with ELM algorithm. The results show that the accuracy of P-ELM algorithm is better in short-term prediction, and P-ELM algorithm is very suitable for real-time solar energy prediction accuracy and reliability. Environmental sciences Sun Yao verfasserin aut Deng Xiaofei verfasserin aut In E3S Web of Conferences EDP Sciences, 2013 294, p 01002(2021) (DE-627)778372081 (DE-600)2755680-3 22671242 nnns volume:294, p 01002 year:2021 https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202129401002 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/2a18263ea3bb4b01a8e690ef9932f9b2 kostenfrei https://www.e3s-conferences.org/articles/e3sconf/pdf/2021/70/e3sconf_icsree2021_01002.pdf kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2267-1242 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 294, p 01002 2021 |
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10.1051/e3sconf/202129401002 doi (DE-627)DOAJ070212414 (DE-599)DOAJ2a18263ea3bb4b01a8e690ef9932f9b2 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng fre GE1-350 Xiang Xiaoyan verfasserin aut Short Time Solar Power Forecasting Using Persistence Extreme Learning Machine Approach 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Solar energy in nature is irregular, so photovoltaic (PV) power performance is intermittent, and highly dependent on solar radiation, temperature and other meteorological parameters. Accurately predicting solar power to ensure the economic operation of micro-grids (MG) and smart grids is an important challenge to improve the large-scale application of PV to traditional power systems. In this paper, a hybrid machine learning algorithm is proposed to predict solar power accurately, and Persistence Extreme Learning Machine(P-ELM) algorithm is used to train the system. The input parameters are the temperature, sunshine and solar power output at the time of i, and the output parameters are the temperature, sunshine and solar power output at the time i+1. The proposed method can realize the prediction of solar power output 20 minutes in advance. Mean absolute error (MAE) and root-mean-square error (RMSE) are used to characterize the performance of P-ELM algorithm, and compared with ELM algorithm. The results show that the accuracy of P-ELM algorithm is better in short-term prediction, and P-ELM algorithm is very suitable for real-time solar energy prediction accuracy and reliability. Environmental sciences Sun Yao verfasserin aut Deng Xiaofei verfasserin aut In E3S Web of Conferences EDP Sciences, 2013 294, p 01002(2021) (DE-627)778372081 (DE-600)2755680-3 22671242 nnns volume:294, p 01002 year:2021 https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202129401002 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/2a18263ea3bb4b01a8e690ef9932f9b2 kostenfrei https://www.e3s-conferences.org/articles/e3sconf/pdf/2021/70/e3sconf_icsree2021_01002.pdf kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2267-1242 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 294, p 01002 2021 |
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10.1051/e3sconf/202129401002 doi (DE-627)DOAJ070212414 (DE-599)DOAJ2a18263ea3bb4b01a8e690ef9932f9b2 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng fre GE1-350 Xiang Xiaoyan verfasserin aut Short Time Solar Power Forecasting Using Persistence Extreme Learning Machine Approach 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Solar energy in nature is irregular, so photovoltaic (PV) power performance is intermittent, and highly dependent on solar radiation, temperature and other meteorological parameters. Accurately predicting solar power to ensure the economic operation of micro-grids (MG) and smart grids is an important challenge to improve the large-scale application of PV to traditional power systems. In this paper, a hybrid machine learning algorithm is proposed to predict solar power accurately, and Persistence Extreme Learning Machine(P-ELM) algorithm is used to train the system. The input parameters are the temperature, sunshine and solar power output at the time of i, and the output parameters are the temperature, sunshine and solar power output at the time i+1. The proposed method can realize the prediction of solar power output 20 minutes in advance. Mean absolute error (MAE) and root-mean-square error (RMSE) are used to characterize the performance of P-ELM algorithm, and compared with ELM algorithm. The results show that the accuracy of P-ELM algorithm is better in short-term prediction, and P-ELM algorithm is very suitable for real-time solar energy prediction accuracy and reliability. Environmental sciences Sun Yao verfasserin aut Deng Xiaofei verfasserin aut In E3S Web of Conferences EDP Sciences, 2013 294, p 01002(2021) (DE-627)778372081 (DE-600)2755680-3 22671242 nnns volume:294, p 01002 year:2021 https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202129401002 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/2a18263ea3bb4b01a8e690ef9932f9b2 kostenfrei https://www.e3s-conferences.org/articles/e3sconf/pdf/2021/70/e3sconf_icsree2021_01002.pdf kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2267-1242 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 294, p 01002 2021 |
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10.1051/e3sconf/202129401002 doi (DE-627)DOAJ070212414 (DE-599)DOAJ2a18263ea3bb4b01a8e690ef9932f9b2 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng fre GE1-350 Xiang Xiaoyan verfasserin aut Short Time Solar Power Forecasting Using Persistence Extreme Learning Machine Approach 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Solar energy in nature is irregular, so photovoltaic (PV) power performance is intermittent, and highly dependent on solar radiation, temperature and other meteorological parameters. Accurately predicting solar power to ensure the economic operation of micro-grids (MG) and smart grids is an important challenge to improve the large-scale application of PV to traditional power systems. In this paper, a hybrid machine learning algorithm is proposed to predict solar power accurately, and Persistence Extreme Learning Machine(P-ELM) algorithm is used to train the system. The input parameters are the temperature, sunshine and solar power output at the time of i, and the output parameters are the temperature, sunshine and solar power output at the time i+1. The proposed method can realize the prediction of solar power output 20 minutes in advance. Mean absolute error (MAE) and root-mean-square error (RMSE) are used to characterize the performance of P-ELM algorithm, and compared with ELM algorithm. The results show that the accuracy of P-ELM algorithm is better in short-term prediction, and P-ELM algorithm is very suitable for real-time solar energy prediction accuracy and reliability. Environmental sciences Sun Yao verfasserin aut Deng Xiaofei verfasserin aut In E3S Web of Conferences EDP Sciences, 2013 294, p 01002(2021) (DE-627)778372081 (DE-600)2755680-3 22671242 nnns volume:294, p 01002 year:2021 https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202129401002 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/2a18263ea3bb4b01a8e690ef9932f9b2 kostenfrei https://www.e3s-conferences.org/articles/e3sconf/pdf/2021/70/e3sconf_icsree2021_01002.pdf kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2267-1242 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 294, p 01002 2021 |
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Solar energy in nature is irregular, so photovoltaic (PV) power performance is intermittent, and highly dependent on solar radiation, temperature and other meteorological parameters. Accurately predicting solar power to ensure the economic operation of micro-grids (MG) and smart grids is an important challenge to improve the large-scale application of PV to traditional power systems. In this paper, a hybrid machine learning algorithm is proposed to predict solar power accurately, and Persistence Extreme Learning Machine(P-ELM) algorithm is used to train the system. The input parameters are the temperature, sunshine and solar power output at the time of i, and the output parameters are the temperature, sunshine and solar power output at the time i+1. The proposed method can realize the prediction of solar power output 20 minutes in advance. Mean absolute error (MAE) and root-mean-square error (RMSE) are used to characterize the performance of P-ELM algorithm, and compared with ELM algorithm. The results show that the accuracy of P-ELM algorithm is better in short-term prediction, and P-ELM algorithm is very suitable for real-time solar energy prediction accuracy and reliability. |
abstractGer |
Solar energy in nature is irregular, so photovoltaic (PV) power performance is intermittent, and highly dependent on solar radiation, temperature and other meteorological parameters. Accurately predicting solar power to ensure the economic operation of micro-grids (MG) and smart grids is an important challenge to improve the large-scale application of PV to traditional power systems. In this paper, a hybrid machine learning algorithm is proposed to predict solar power accurately, and Persistence Extreme Learning Machine(P-ELM) algorithm is used to train the system. The input parameters are the temperature, sunshine and solar power output at the time of i, and the output parameters are the temperature, sunshine and solar power output at the time i+1. The proposed method can realize the prediction of solar power output 20 minutes in advance. Mean absolute error (MAE) and root-mean-square error (RMSE) are used to characterize the performance of P-ELM algorithm, and compared with ELM algorithm. The results show that the accuracy of P-ELM algorithm is better in short-term prediction, and P-ELM algorithm is very suitable for real-time solar energy prediction accuracy and reliability. |
abstract_unstemmed |
Solar energy in nature is irregular, so photovoltaic (PV) power performance is intermittent, and highly dependent on solar radiation, temperature and other meteorological parameters. Accurately predicting solar power to ensure the economic operation of micro-grids (MG) and smart grids is an important challenge to improve the large-scale application of PV to traditional power systems. In this paper, a hybrid machine learning algorithm is proposed to predict solar power accurately, and Persistence Extreme Learning Machine(P-ELM) algorithm is used to train the system. The input parameters are the temperature, sunshine and solar power output at the time of i, and the output parameters are the temperature, sunshine and solar power output at the time i+1. The proposed method can realize the prediction of solar power output 20 minutes in advance. Mean absolute error (MAE) and root-mean-square error (RMSE) are used to characterize the performance of P-ELM algorithm, and compared with ELM algorithm. The results show that the accuracy of P-ELM algorithm is better in short-term prediction, and P-ELM algorithm is very suitable for real-time solar energy prediction accuracy and reliability. |
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Short Time Solar Power Forecasting Using Persistence Extreme Learning Machine Approach |
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