Applying the Moving Epidemic Method to Establish the Influenza Epidemic Thresholds and Intensity Levels for Age-Specific Groups in Hubei Province, China

Background: School-aged children were reported to act as the main transmitter during influenza epidemic seasons. It is vital to set up an early detection method to help with the vaccination program in such a high-risk population. However, most relative studies only focused on the general population....
Ausführliche Beschreibung

Gespeichert in:

Autor*in:	Yuan Jiang [verfasserIn] Ye-qing Tong [verfasserIn] Bin Fang [verfasserIn] Wen-kang Zhang [verfasserIn] Xue-jie Yu [verfasserIn]

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2022

Schlagwörter:	moving epidemic method school-aged children influenza surveillance

Übergeordnetes Werk:	In: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health - MDPI AG, 2005, 19(2022), 1677, p 1677
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:19 ; year:2022 ; number:1677, p 1677

Links:	Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Journal toc Journal toc

DOI / URN:	10.3390/ijerph19031677

Katalog-ID:	DOAJ072966610

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520			\|a Background: School-aged children were reported to act as the main transmitter during influenza epidemic seasons. It is vital to set up an early detection method to help with the vaccination program in such a high-risk population. However, most relative studies only focused on the general population. Our study aims to describe the influenza epidemiology characteristics in Hubei Province and to introduce the moving epidemic method to establish the epidemic thresholds for age-specific groups. Methods: We divided the whole population into pre-school, school-aged and adult groups. The virology data from 2010/2011 to 2017/2018 were applied to the moving epidemic method to establish the epidemic thresholds for the general population and age-specific groups for the detection of influenza in 2018/2019. The performances of the model were compared by the cross-validation process. Results: The epidemic threshold for school-aged children in the 2018/2019 season was 15.42%. The epidemic thresholds for influenza A virus subtypes H1N1 and H3N2 and influenza B were determined as 5.68%, 6.12% and 10.48%, respectively. The median start weeks of the school-aged children were similar to the general population. The cross-validation process showed that the sensitivity of the model established with school-aged children was higher than those established with the other age groups in total influenza, H1N1 and influenza B, while it was only lower than the general population group in H3N2. Conclusions: This study proved the feasibility of applying the moving epidemic method in Hubei Province. Additional influenza surveillance and vaccination strategies should be well-organized for school-aged children to reduce the disease burden of influenza in China.
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allfields	10.3390/ijerph19031677 doi (DE-627)DOAJ072966610 (DE-599)DOAJefef7dca1a884846a8375321b6b06483 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Yuan Jiang verfasserin aut Applying the Moving Epidemic Method to Establish the Influenza Epidemic Thresholds and Intensity Levels for Age-Specific Groups in Hubei Province, China 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Background: School-aged children were reported to act as the main transmitter during influenza epidemic seasons. It is vital to set up an early detection method to help with the vaccination program in such a high-risk population. However, most relative studies only focused on the general population. Our study aims to describe the influenza epidemiology characteristics in Hubei Province and to introduce the moving epidemic method to establish the epidemic thresholds for age-specific groups. Methods: We divided the whole population into pre-school, school-aged and adult groups. The virology data from 2010/2011 to 2017/2018 were applied to the moving epidemic method to establish the epidemic thresholds for the general population and age-specific groups for the detection of influenza in 2018/2019. The performances of the model were compared by the cross-validation process. Results: The epidemic threshold for school-aged children in the 2018/2019 season was 15.42%. The epidemic thresholds for influenza A virus subtypes H1N1 and H3N2 and influenza B were determined as 5.68%, 6.12% and 10.48%, respectively. The median start weeks of the school-aged children were similar to the general population. The cross-validation process showed that the sensitivity of the model established with school-aged children was higher than those established with the other age groups in total influenza, H1N1 and influenza B, while it was only lower than the general population group in H3N2. Conclusions: This study proved the feasibility of applying the moving epidemic method in Hubei Province. Additional influenza surveillance and vaccination strategies should be well-organized for school-aged children to reduce the disease burden of influenza in China. moving epidemic method school-aged children influenza surveillance Medicine R Ye-qing Tong verfasserin aut Bin Fang verfasserin aut Wen-kang Zhang verfasserin aut Xue-jie Yu verfasserin aut In International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health MDPI AG, 2005 19(2022), 1677, p 1677 (DE-627)477992463 (DE-600)2175195-X 16604601 nnns volume:19 year:2022 number:1677, p 1677 https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19031677 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/efef7dca1a884846a8375321b6b06483 kostenfrei https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/3/1677 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1661-7827 Journal toc kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1660-4601 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 19 2022 1677, p 1677
spelling	10.3390/ijerph19031677 doi (DE-627)DOAJ072966610 (DE-599)DOAJefef7dca1a884846a8375321b6b06483 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Yuan Jiang verfasserin aut Applying the Moving Epidemic Method to Establish the Influenza Epidemic Thresholds and Intensity Levels for Age-Specific Groups in Hubei Province, China 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Background: School-aged children were reported to act as the main transmitter during influenza epidemic seasons. It is vital to set up an early detection method to help with the vaccination program in such a high-risk population. However, most relative studies only focused on the general population. Our study aims to describe the influenza epidemiology characteristics in Hubei Province and to introduce the moving epidemic method to establish the epidemic thresholds for age-specific groups. Methods: We divided the whole population into pre-school, school-aged and adult groups. The virology data from 2010/2011 to 2017/2018 were applied to the moving epidemic method to establish the epidemic thresholds for the general population and age-specific groups for the detection of influenza in 2018/2019. The performances of the model were compared by the cross-validation process. Results: The epidemic threshold for school-aged children in the 2018/2019 season was 15.42%. The epidemic thresholds for influenza A virus subtypes H1N1 and H3N2 and influenza B were determined as 5.68%, 6.12% and 10.48%, respectively. The median start weeks of the school-aged children were similar to the general population. The cross-validation process showed that the sensitivity of the model established with school-aged children was higher than those established with the other age groups in total influenza, H1N1 and influenza B, while it was only lower than the general population group in H3N2. Conclusions: This study proved the feasibility of applying the moving epidemic method in Hubei Province. Additional influenza surveillance and vaccination strategies should be well-organized for school-aged children to reduce the disease burden of influenza in China. moving epidemic method school-aged children influenza surveillance Medicine R Ye-qing Tong verfasserin aut Bin Fang verfasserin aut Wen-kang Zhang verfasserin aut Xue-jie Yu verfasserin aut In International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health MDPI AG, 2005 19(2022), 1677, p 1677 (DE-627)477992463 (DE-600)2175195-X 16604601 nnns volume:19 year:2022 number:1677, p 1677 https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19031677 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/efef7dca1a884846a8375321b6b06483 kostenfrei https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/3/1677 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1661-7827 Journal toc kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1660-4601 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 19 2022 1677, p 1677
allfields_unstemmed	10.3390/ijerph19031677 doi (DE-627)DOAJ072966610 (DE-599)DOAJefef7dca1a884846a8375321b6b06483 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Yuan Jiang verfasserin aut Applying the Moving Epidemic Method to Establish the Influenza Epidemic Thresholds and Intensity Levels for Age-Specific Groups in Hubei Province, China 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Background: School-aged children were reported to act as the main transmitter during influenza epidemic seasons. It is vital to set up an early detection method to help with the vaccination program in such a high-risk population. However, most relative studies only focused on the general population. Our study aims to describe the influenza epidemiology characteristics in Hubei Province and to introduce the moving epidemic method to establish the epidemic thresholds for age-specific groups. Methods: We divided the whole population into pre-school, school-aged and adult groups. The virology data from 2010/2011 to 2017/2018 were applied to the moving epidemic method to establish the epidemic thresholds for the general population and age-specific groups for the detection of influenza in 2018/2019. The performances of the model were compared by the cross-validation process. Results: The epidemic threshold for school-aged children in the 2018/2019 season was 15.42%. The epidemic thresholds for influenza A virus subtypes H1N1 and H3N2 and influenza B were determined as 5.68%, 6.12% and 10.48%, respectively. The median start weeks of the school-aged children were similar to the general population. The cross-validation process showed that the sensitivity of the model established with school-aged children was higher than those established with the other age groups in total influenza, H1N1 and influenza B, while it was only lower than the general population group in H3N2. Conclusions: This study proved the feasibility of applying the moving epidemic method in Hubei Province. Additional influenza surveillance and vaccination strategies should be well-organized for school-aged children to reduce the disease burden of influenza in China. moving epidemic method school-aged children influenza surveillance Medicine R Ye-qing Tong verfasserin aut Bin Fang verfasserin aut Wen-kang Zhang verfasserin aut Xue-jie Yu verfasserin aut In International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health MDPI AG, 2005 19(2022), 1677, p 1677 (DE-627)477992463 (DE-600)2175195-X 16604601 nnns volume:19 year:2022 number:1677, p 1677 https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19031677 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/efef7dca1a884846a8375321b6b06483 kostenfrei https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/3/1677 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1661-7827 Journal toc kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1660-4601 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 19 2022 1677, p 1677
allfieldsGer	10.3390/ijerph19031677 doi (DE-627)DOAJ072966610 (DE-599)DOAJefef7dca1a884846a8375321b6b06483 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Yuan Jiang verfasserin aut Applying the Moving Epidemic Method to Establish the Influenza Epidemic Thresholds and Intensity Levels for Age-Specific Groups in Hubei Province, China 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Background: School-aged children were reported to act as the main transmitter during influenza epidemic seasons. It is vital to set up an early detection method to help with the vaccination program in such a high-risk population. However, most relative studies only focused on the general population. Our study aims to describe the influenza epidemiology characteristics in Hubei Province and to introduce the moving epidemic method to establish the epidemic thresholds for age-specific groups. Methods: We divided the whole population into pre-school, school-aged and adult groups. The virology data from 2010/2011 to 2017/2018 were applied to the moving epidemic method to establish the epidemic thresholds for the general population and age-specific groups for the detection of influenza in 2018/2019. The performances of the model were compared by the cross-validation process. Results: The epidemic threshold for school-aged children in the 2018/2019 season was 15.42%. The epidemic thresholds for influenza A virus subtypes H1N1 and H3N2 and influenza B were determined as 5.68%, 6.12% and 10.48%, respectively. The median start weeks of the school-aged children were similar to the general population. The cross-validation process showed that the sensitivity of the model established with school-aged children was higher than those established with the other age groups in total influenza, H1N1 and influenza B, while it was only lower than the general population group in H3N2. Conclusions: This study proved the feasibility of applying the moving epidemic method in Hubei Province. Additional influenza surveillance and vaccination strategies should be well-organized for school-aged children to reduce the disease burden of influenza in China. moving epidemic method school-aged children influenza surveillance Medicine R Ye-qing Tong verfasserin aut Bin Fang verfasserin aut Wen-kang Zhang verfasserin aut Xue-jie Yu verfasserin aut In International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health MDPI AG, 2005 19(2022), 1677, p 1677 (DE-627)477992463 (DE-600)2175195-X 16604601 nnns volume:19 year:2022 number:1677, p 1677 https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19031677 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/efef7dca1a884846a8375321b6b06483 kostenfrei https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/3/1677 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1661-7827 Journal toc kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1660-4601 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 19 2022 1677, p 1677
allfieldsSound	10.3390/ijerph19031677 doi (DE-627)DOAJ072966610 (DE-599)DOAJefef7dca1a884846a8375321b6b06483 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Yuan Jiang verfasserin aut Applying the Moving Epidemic Method to Establish the Influenza Epidemic Thresholds and Intensity Levels for Age-Specific Groups in Hubei Province, China 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Background: School-aged children were reported to act as the main transmitter during influenza epidemic seasons. It is vital to set up an early detection method to help with the vaccination program in such a high-risk population. However, most relative studies only focused on the general population. Our study aims to describe the influenza epidemiology characteristics in Hubei Province and to introduce the moving epidemic method to establish the epidemic thresholds for age-specific groups. Methods: We divided the whole population into pre-school, school-aged and adult groups. The virology data from 2010/2011 to 2017/2018 were applied to the moving epidemic method to establish the epidemic thresholds for the general population and age-specific groups for the detection of influenza in 2018/2019. The performances of the model were compared by the cross-validation process. Results: The epidemic threshold for school-aged children in the 2018/2019 season was 15.42%. The epidemic thresholds for influenza A virus subtypes H1N1 and H3N2 and influenza B were determined as 5.68%, 6.12% and 10.48%, respectively. The median start weeks of the school-aged children were similar to the general population. The cross-validation process showed that the sensitivity of the model established with school-aged children was higher than those established with the other age groups in total influenza, H1N1 and influenza B, while it was only lower than the general population group in H3N2. Conclusions: This study proved the feasibility of applying the moving epidemic method in Hubei Province. Additional influenza surveillance and vaccination strategies should be well-organized for school-aged children to reduce the disease burden of influenza in China. moving epidemic method school-aged children influenza surveillance Medicine R Ye-qing Tong verfasserin aut Bin Fang verfasserin aut Wen-kang Zhang verfasserin aut Xue-jie Yu verfasserin aut In International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health MDPI AG, 2005 19(2022), 1677, p 1677 (DE-627)477992463 (DE-600)2175195-X 16604601 nnns volume:19 year:2022 number:1677, p 1677 https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19031677 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/efef7dca1a884846a8375321b6b06483 kostenfrei https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/3/1677 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1661-7827 Journal toc kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1660-4601 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 19 2022 1677, p 1677
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author	Yuan Jiang
spellingShingle	Yuan Jiang misc moving epidemic method misc school-aged children misc influenza surveillance misc Medicine misc R Applying the Moving Epidemic Method to Establish the Influenza Epidemic Thresholds and Intensity Levels for Age-Specific Groups in Hubei Province, China
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topic_title	Applying the Moving Epidemic Method to Establish the Influenza Epidemic Thresholds and Intensity Levels for Age-Specific Groups in Hubei Province, China moving epidemic method school-aged children influenza surveillance
topic	misc moving epidemic method misc school-aged children misc influenza surveillance misc Medicine misc R
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title	Applying the Moving Epidemic Method to Establish the Influenza Epidemic Thresholds and Intensity Levels for Age-Specific Groups in Hubei Province, China
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title_sort	applying the moving epidemic method to establish the influenza epidemic thresholds and intensity levels for age-specific groups in hubei province, china
title_auth	Applying the Moving Epidemic Method to Establish the Influenza Epidemic Thresholds and Intensity Levels for Age-Specific Groups in Hubei Province, China
abstract	Background: School-aged children were reported to act as the main transmitter during influenza epidemic seasons. It is vital to set up an early detection method to help with the vaccination program in such a high-risk population. However, most relative studies only focused on the general population. Our study aims to describe the influenza epidemiology characteristics in Hubei Province and to introduce the moving epidemic method to establish the epidemic thresholds for age-specific groups. Methods: We divided the whole population into pre-school, school-aged and adult groups. The virology data from 2010/2011 to 2017/2018 were applied to the moving epidemic method to establish the epidemic thresholds for the general population and age-specific groups for the detection of influenza in 2018/2019. The performances of the model were compared by the cross-validation process. Results: The epidemic threshold for school-aged children in the 2018/2019 season was 15.42%. The epidemic thresholds for influenza A virus subtypes H1N1 and H3N2 and influenza B were determined as 5.68%, 6.12% and 10.48%, respectively. The median start weeks of the school-aged children were similar to the general population. The cross-validation process showed that the sensitivity of the model established with school-aged children was higher than those established with the other age groups in total influenza, H1N1 and influenza B, while it was only lower than the general population group in H3N2. Conclusions: This study proved the feasibility of applying the moving epidemic method in Hubei Province. Additional influenza surveillance and vaccination strategies should be well-organized for school-aged children to reduce the disease burden of influenza in China.
abstractGer	Background: School-aged children were reported to act as the main transmitter during influenza epidemic seasons. It is vital to set up an early detection method to help with the vaccination program in such a high-risk population. However, most relative studies only focused on the general population. Our study aims to describe the influenza epidemiology characteristics in Hubei Province and to introduce the moving epidemic method to establish the epidemic thresholds for age-specific groups. Methods: We divided the whole population into pre-school, school-aged and adult groups. The virology data from 2010/2011 to 2017/2018 were applied to the moving epidemic method to establish the epidemic thresholds for the general population and age-specific groups for the detection of influenza in 2018/2019. The performances of the model were compared by the cross-validation process. Results: The epidemic threshold for school-aged children in the 2018/2019 season was 15.42%. The epidemic thresholds for influenza A virus subtypes H1N1 and H3N2 and influenza B were determined as 5.68%, 6.12% and 10.48%, respectively. The median start weeks of the school-aged children were similar to the general population. The cross-validation process showed that the sensitivity of the model established with school-aged children was higher than those established with the other age groups in total influenza, H1N1 and influenza B, while it was only lower than the general population group in H3N2. Conclusions: This study proved the feasibility of applying the moving epidemic method in Hubei Province. Additional influenza surveillance and vaccination strategies should be well-organized for school-aged children to reduce the disease burden of influenza in China.
abstract_unstemmed	Background: School-aged children were reported to act as the main transmitter during influenza epidemic seasons. It is vital to set up an early detection method to help with the vaccination program in such a high-risk population. However, most relative studies only focused on the general population. Our study aims to describe the influenza epidemiology characteristics in Hubei Province and to introduce the moving epidemic method to establish the epidemic thresholds for age-specific groups. Methods: We divided the whole population into pre-school, school-aged and adult groups. The virology data from 2010/2011 to 2017/2018 were applied to the moving epidemic method to establish the epidemic thresholds for the general population and age-specific groups for the detection of influenza in 2018/2019. The performances of the model were compared by the cross-validation process. Results: The epidemic threshold for school-aged children in the 2018/2019 season was 15.42%. The epidemic thresholds for influenza A virus subtypes H1N1 and H3N2 and influenza B were determined as 5.68%, 6.12% and 10.48%, respectively. The median start weeks of the school-aged children were similar to the general population. The cross-validation process showed that the sensitivity of the model established with school-aged children was higher than those established with the other age groups in total influenza, H1N1 and influenza B, while it was only lower than the general population group in H3N2. Conclusions: This study proved the feasibility of applying the moving epidemic method in Hubei Province. Additional influenza surveillance and vaccination strategies should be well-organized for school-aged children to reduce the disease burden of influenza in China.
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title_short	Applying the Moving Epidemic Method to Establish the Influenza Epidemic Thresholds and Intensity Levels for Age-Specific Groups in Hubei Province, China
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Applying the Moving Epidemic Method to Establish the Influenza Epidemic Thresholds and Intensity Levels for Age-Specific Groups in Hubei Province, China

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