Estimating Individualized Absolute Risk for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Population-Based Study in High-Risk Areas of China

BackgroundEsophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) has a high incidence rate and poor prognosis. In this study, we aimed to develop a predictive model to estimate the individualized 5-year absolute risk for ESCC in Chinese populations living in the high-risk areas of China.MethodsWe developed a ris...
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Autor*in:	Yi Shen [verfasserIn] Shuanghua Xie [verfasserIn] Lei Zhao [verfasserIn] Guohui Song [verfasserIn] Yi Shao [verfasserIn] Changqing Hao [verfasserIn] Chen Niu [verfasserIn] Xiaoli Ruan [verfasserIn] Zhaoping Zang [verfasserIn] Rena Nakyeyune [verfasserIn] Fen Liu [verfasserIn] Wenqiang Wei [verfasserIn]

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2021

Schlagwörter:	absolute risk individualized esophageal squamous cell carcinoma high-risk area prediction model

Übergeordnetes Werk:	In: Frontiers in Oncology - Frontiers Media S.A., 2012, 10(2021)
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:10 ; year:2021

Links:	Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Journal toc

DOI / URN:	10.3389/fonc.2020.598603

Katalog-ID:	DOAJ074225812

Internformat


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520			\|a BackgroundEsophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) has a high incidence rate and poor prognosis. In this study, we aimed to develop a predictive model to estimate the individualized 5-year absolute risk for ESCC in Chinese populations living in the high-risk areas of China.MethodsWe developed a risk-predicting model based on the epidemiologic data from a population-based case-control study including 244 newly diagnosed ESCC patients and 1,220 healthy controls. Initially, we included easy-to-obtain risk factors to construct the model using the multivariable logistic regression analysis. The area under the ROC curves (AUC) with cross-validation methods was used to evaluate the performance of the model. Combined with local age- and sex-specific ESCC incidence and mortality rates, the model was then used to estimate the absolute risk of developing ESCC within 5 years.ResultsA relative risk model was established that included eight factors: age, sex, tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, education, and dietary habits (intake of hot food, intake of pickled/salted food, and intake of fresh fruit). The relative risk model had good discrimination [AUC, 0.785; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.749–0.821]. The estimated 5-year absolute risk of ESCC for individuals varied widely, from 0.0003% to 19.72% in the studied population, depending on the exposure to risk factors.ConclusionsOur model based on readily identifiable risk factors showed good discriminative accuracy and strong robustness. And it could be applied to identify individuals with a higher risk of developing ESCC in the Chinese population, who might benefit from further targeted screening to prevent esophageal cancer.
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allfields	10.3389/fonc.2020.598603 doi (DE-627)DOAJ074225812 (DE-599)DOAJ64f32257c84b4b3c9551827a44c93b02 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng RC254-282 Yi Shen verfasserin aut Estimating Individualized Absolute Risk for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Population-Based Study in High-Risk Areas of China 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier BackgroundEsophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) has a high incidence rate and poor prognosis. In this study, we aimed to develop a predictive model to estimate the individualized 5-year absolute risk for ESCC in Chinese populations living in the high-risk areas of China.MethodsWe developed a risk-predicting model based on the epidemiologic data from a population-based case-control study including 244 newly diagnosed ESCC patients and 1,220 healthy controls. Initially, we included easy-to-obtain risk factors to construct the model using the multivariable logistic regression analysis. The area under the ROC curves (AUC) with cross-validation methods was used to evaluate the performance of the model. Combined with local age- and sex-specific ESCC incidence and mortality rates, the model was then used to estimate the absolute risk of developing ESCC within 5 years.ResultsA relative risk model was established that included eight factors: age, sex, tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, education, and dietary habits (intake of hot food, intake of pickled/salted food, and intake of fresh fruit). The relative risk model had good discrimination [AUC, 0.785; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.749–0.821]. The estimated 5-year absolute risk of ESCC for individuals varied widely, from 0.0003% to 19.72% in the studied population, depending on the exposure to risk factors.ConclusionsOur model based on readily identifiable risk factors showed good discriminative accuracy and strong robustness. And it could be applied to identify individuals with a higher risk of developing ESCC in the Chinese population, who might benefit from further targeted screening to prevent esophageal cancer. absolute risk individualized esophageal squamous cell carcinoma high-risk area prediction model Neoplasms. Tumors. Oncology. Including cancer and carcinogens Shuanghua Xie verfasserin aut Lei Zhao verfasserin aut Guohui Song verfasserin aut Yi Shao verfasserin aut Changqing Hao verfasserin aut Chen Niu verfasserin aut Xiaoli Ruan verfasserin aut Zhaoping Zang verfasserin aut Rena Nakyeyune verfasserin aut Fen Liu verfasserin aut Wenqiang Wei verfasserin aut In Frontiers in Oncology Frontiers Media S.A., 2012 10(2021) (DE-627)684965518 (DE-600)2649216-7 2234943X nnns volume:10 year:2021 https://doi.org/10.3389/fonc.2020.598603 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/64f32257c84b4b3c9551827a44c93b02 kostenfrei https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2020.598603/full kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2234-943X Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 10 2021
spelling	10.3389/fonc.2020.598603 doi (DE-627)DOAJ074225812 (DE-599)DOAJ64f32257c84b4b3c9551827a44c93b02 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng RC254-282 Yi Shen verfasserin aut Estimating Individualized Absolute Risk for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Population-Based Study in High-Risk Areas of China 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier BackgroundEsophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) has a high incidence rate and poor prognosis. In this study, we aimed to develop a predictive model to estimate the individualized 5-year absolute risk for ESCC in Chinese populations living in the high-risk areas of China.MethodsWe developed a risk-predicting model based on the epidemiologic data from a population-based case-control study including 244 newly diagnosed ESCC patients and 1,220 healthy controls. Initially, we included easy-to-obtain risk factors to construct the model using the multivariable logistic regression analysis. The area under the ROC curves (AUC) with cross-validation methods was used to evaluate the performance of the model. Combined with local age- and sex-specific ESCC incidence and mortality rates, the model was then used to estimate the absolute risk of developing ESCC within 5 years.ResultsA relative risk model was established that included eight factors: age, sex, tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, education, and dietary habits (intake of hot food, intake of pickled/salted food, and intake of fresh fruit). The relative risk model had good discrimination [AUC, 0.785; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.749–0.821]. The estimated 5-year absolute risk of ESCC for individuals varied widely, from 0.0003% to 19.72% in the studied population, depending on the exposure to risk factors.ConclusionsOur model based on readily identifiable risk factors showed good discriminative accuracy and strong robustness. And it could be applied to identify individuals with a higher risk of developing ESCC in the Chinese population, who might benefit from further targeted screening to prevent esophageal cancer. absolute risk individualized esophageal squamous cell carcinoma high-risk area prediction model Neoplasms. Tumors. Oncology. Including cancer and carcinogens Shuanghua Xie verfasserin aut Lei Zhao verfasserin aut Guohui Song verfasserin aut Yi Shao verfasserin aut Changqing Hao verfasserin aut Chen Niu verfasserin aut Xiaoli Ruan verfasserin aut Zhaoping Zang verfasserin aut Rena Nakyeyune verfasserin aut Fen Liu verfasserin aut Wenqiang Wei verfasserin aut In Frontiers in Oncology Frontiers Media S.A., 2012 10(2021) (DE-627)684965518 (DE-600)2649216-7 2234943X nnns volume:10 year:2021 https://doi.org/10.3389/fonc.2020.598603 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/64f32257c84b4b3c9551827a44c93b02 kostenfrei https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2020.598603/full kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2234-943X Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 10 2021
allfields_unstemmed	10.3389/fonc.2020.598603 doi (DE-627)DOAJ074225812 (DE-599)DOAJ64f32257c84b4b3c9551827a44c93b02 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng RC254-282 Yi Shen verfasserin aut Estimating Individualized Absolute Risk for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Population-Based Study in High-Risk Areas of China 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier BackgroundEsophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) has a high incidence rate and poor prognosis. In this study, we aimed to develop a predictive model to estimate the individualized 5-year absolute risk for ESCC in Chinese populations living in the high-risk areas of China.MethodsWe developed a risk-predicting model based on the epidemiologic data from a population-based case-control study including 244 newly diagnosed ESCC patients and 1,220 healthy controls. Initially, we included easy-to-obtain risk factors to construct the model using the multivariable logistic regression analysis. The area under the ROC curves (AUC) with cross-validation methods was used to evaluate the performance of the model. Combined with local age- and sex-specific ESCC incidence and mortality rates, the model was then used to estimate the absolute risk of developing ESCC within 5 years.ResultsA relative risk model was established that included eight factors: age, sex, tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, education, and dietary habits (intake of hot food, intake of pickled/salted food, and intake of fresh fruit). The relative risk model had good discrimination [AUC, 0.785; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.749–0.821]. The estimated 5-year absolute risk of ESCC for individuals varied widely, from 0.0003% to 19.72% in the studied population, depending on the exposure to risk factors.ConclusionsOur model based on readily identifiable risk factors showed good discriminative accuracy and strong robustness. And it could be applied to identify individuals with a higher risk of developing ESCC in the Chinese population, who might benefit from further targeted screening to prevent esophageal cancer. absolute risk individualized esophageal squamous cell carcinoma high-risk area prediction model Neoplasms. Tumors. Oncology. Including cancer and carcinogens Shuanghua Xie verfasserin aut Lei Zhao verfasserin aut Guohui Song verfasserin aut Yi Shao verfasserin aut Changqing Hao verfasserin aut Chen Niu verfasserin aut Xiaoli Ruan verfasserin aut Zhaoping Zang verfasserin aut Rena Nakyeyune verfasserin aut Fen Liu verfasserin aut Wenqiang Wei verfasserin aut In Frontiers in Oncology Frontiers Media S.A., 2012 10(2021) (DE-627)684965518 (DE-600)2649216-7 2234943X nnns volume:10 year:2021 https://doi.org/10.3389/fonc.2020.598603 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/64f32257c84b4b3c9551827a44c93b02 kostenfrei https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2020.598603/full kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2234-943X Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 10 2021
allfieldsGer	10.3389/fonc.2020.598603 doi (DE-627)DOAJ074225812 (DE-599)DOAJ64f32257c84b4b3c9551827a44c93b02 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng RC254-282 Yi Shen verfasserin aut Estimating Individualized Absolute Risk for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Population-Based Study in High-Risk Areas of China 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier BackgroundEsophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) has a high incidence rate and poor prognosis. In this study, we aimed to develop a predictive model to estimate the individualized 5-year absolute risk for ESCC in Chinese populations living in the high-risk areas of China.MethodsWe developed a risk-predicting model based on the epidemiologic data from a population-based case-control study including 244 newly diagnosed ESCC patients and 1,220 healthy controls. Initially, we included easy-to-obtain risk factors to construct the model using the multivariable logistic regression analysis. The area under the ROC curves (AUC) with cross-validation methods was used to evaluate the performance of the model. Combined with local age- and sex-specific ESCC incidence and mortality rates, the model was then used to estimate the absolute risk of developing ESCC within 5 years.ResultsA relative risk model was established that included eight factors: age, sex, tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, education, and dietary habits (intake of hot food, intake of pickled/salted food, and intake of fresh fruit). The relative risk model had good discrimination [AUC, 0.785; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.749–0.821]. The estimated 5-year absolute risk of ESCC for individuals varied widely, from 0.0003% to 19.72% in the studied population, depending on the exposure to risk factors.ConclusionsOur model based on readily identifiable risk factors showed good discriminative accuracy and strong robustness. And it could be applied to identify individuals with a higher risk of developing ESCC in the Chinese population, who might benefit from further targeted screening to prevent esophageal cancer. absolute risk individualized esophageal squamous cell carcinoma high-risk area prediction model Neoplasms. Tumors. Oncology. Including cancer and carcinogens Shuanghua Xie verfasserin aut Lei Zhao verfasserin aut Guohui Song verfasserin aut Yi Shao verfasserin aut Changqing Hao verfasserin aut Chen Niu verfasserin aut Xiaoli Ruan verfasserin aut Zhaoping Zang verfasserin aut Rena Nakyeyune verfasserin aut Fen Liu verfasserin aut Wenqiang Wei verfasserin aut In Frontiers in Oncology Frontiers Media S.A., 2012 10(2021) (DE-627)684965518 (DE-600)2649216-7 2234943X nnns volume:10 year:2021 https://doi.org/10.3389/fonc.2020.598603 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/64f32257c84b4b3c9551827a44c93b02 kostenfrei https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2020.598603/full kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2234-943X Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 10 2021
allfieldsSound	10.3389/fonc.2020.598603 doi (DE-627)DOAJ074225812 (DE-599)DOAJ64f32257c84b4b3c9551827a44c93b02 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng RC254-282 Yi Shen verfasserin aut Estimating Individualized Absolute Risk for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Population-Based Study in High-Risk Areas of China 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier BackgroundEsophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) has a high incidence rate and poor prognosis. In this study, we aimed to develop a predictive model to estimate the individualized 5-year absolute risk for ESCC in Chinese populations living in the high-risk areas of China.MethodsWe developed a risk-predicting model based on the epidemiologic data from a population-based case-control study including 244 newly diagnosed ESCC patients and 1,220 healthy controls. Initially, we included easy-to-obtain risk factors to construct the model using the multivariable logistic regression analysis. The area under the ROC curves (AUC) with cross-validation methods was used to evaluate the performance of the model. Combined with local age- and sex-specific ESCC incidence and mortality rates, the model was then used to estimate the absolute risk of developing ESCC within 5 years.ResultsA relative risk model was established that included eight factors: age, sex, tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, education, and dietary habits (intake of hot food, intake of pickled/salted food, and intake of fresh fruit). The relative risk model had good discrimination [AUC, 0.785; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.749–0.821]. The estimated 5-year absolute risk of ESCC for individuals varied widely, from 0.0003% to 19.72% in the studied population, depending on the exposure to risk factors.ConclusionsOur model based on readily identifiable risk factors showed good discriminative accuracy and strong robustness. And it could be applied to identify individuals with a higher risk of developing ESCC in the Chinese population, who might benefit from further targeted screening to prevent esophageal cancer. absolute risk individualized esophageal squamous cell carcinoma high-risk area prediction model Neoplasms. Tumors. Oncology. Including cancer and carcinogens Shuanghua Xie verfasserin aut Lei Zhao verfasserin aut Guohui Song verfasserin aut Yi Shao verfasserin aut Changqing Hao verfasserin aut Chen Niu verfasserin aut Xiaoli Ruan verfasserin aut Zhaoping Zang verfasserin aut Rena Nakyeyune verfasserin aut Fen Liu verfasserin aut Wenqiang Wei verfasserin aut In Frontiers in Oncology Frontiers Media S.A., 2012 10(2021) (DE-627)684965518 (DE-600)2649216-7 2234943X nnns volume:10 year:2021 https://doi.org/10.3389/fonc.2020.598603 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/64f32257c84b4b3c9551827a44c93b02 kostenfrei https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2020.598603/full kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2234-943X Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 10 2021
language	English
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topic_facet	absolute risk individualized esophageal squamous cell carcinoma high-risk area prediction model Neoplasms. Tumors. Oncology. Including cancer and carcinogens
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authorswithroles_txt_mv	Yi Shen @@aut@@ Shuanghua Xie @@aut@@ Lei Zhao @@aut@@ Guohui Song @@aut@@ Yi Shao @@aut@@ Changqing Hao @@aut@@ Chen Niu @@aut@@ Xiaoli Ruan @@aut@@ Zhaoping Zang @@aut@@ Rena Nakyeyune @@aut@@ Fen Liu @@aut@@ Wenqiang Wei @@aut@@
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Combined with local age- and sex-specific ESCC incidence and mortality rates, the model was then used to estimate the absolute risk of developing ESCC within 5 years.ResultsA relative risk model was established that included eight factors: age, sex, tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, education, and dietary habits (intake of hot food, intake of pickled/salted food, and intake of fresh fruit). The relative risk model had good discrimination [AUC, 0.785; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.749–0.821]. The estimated 5-year absolute risk of ESCC for individuals varied widely, from 0.0003% to 19.72% in the studied population, depending on the exposure to risk factors.ConclusionsOur model based on readily identifiable risk factors showed good discriminative accuracy and strong robustness. 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callnumber-first	R - Medicine
author	Yi Shen
spellingShingle	Yi Shen misc RC254-282 misc absolute risk misc individualized misc esophageal squamous cell carcinoma misc high-risk area misc prediction model misc Neoplasms. Tumors. Oncology. Including cancer and carcinogens Estimating Individualized Absolute Risk for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Population-Based Study in High-Risk Areas of China
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topic_title	RC254-282 Estimating Individualized Absolute Risk for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Population-Based Study in High-Risk Areas of China absolute risk individualized esophageal squamous cell carcinoma high-risk area prediction model
topic	misc RC254-282 misc absolute risk misc individualized misc esophageal squamous cell carcinoma misc high-risk area misc prediction model misc Neoplasms. Tumors. Oncology. Including cancer and carcinogens
topic_unstemmed	misc RC254-282 misc absolute risk misc individualized misc esophageal squamous cell carcinoma misc high-risk area misc prediction model misc Neoplasms. Tumors. Oncology. Including cancer and carcinogens
topic_browse	misc RC254-282 misc absolute risk misc individualized misc esophageal squamous cell carcinoma misc high-risk area misc prediction model misc Neoplasms. Tumors. Oncology. Including cancer and carcinogens
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title	Estimating Individualized Absolute Risk for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Population-Based Study in High-Risk Areas of China
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title_full	Estimating Individualized Absolute Risk for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Population-Based Study in High-Risk Areas of China
author_sort	Yi Shen
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author_browse	Yi Shen Shuanghua Xie Lei Zhao Guohui Song Yi Shao Changqing Hao Chen Niu Xiaoli Ruan Zhaoping Zang Rena Nakyeyune Fen Liu Wenqiang Wei
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title_sort	estimating individualized absolute risk for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: a population-based study in high-risk areas of china
callnumber	RC254-282
title_auth	Estimating Individualized Absolute Risk for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Population-Based Study in High-Risk Areas of China
abstract	BackgroundEsophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) has a high incidence rate and poor prognosis. In this study, we aimed to develop a predictive model to estimate the individualized 5-year absolute risk for ESCC in Chinese populations living in the high-risk areas of China.MethodsWe developed a risk-predicting model based on the epidemiologic data from a population-based case-control study including 244 newly diagnosed ESCC patients and 1,220 healthy controls. Initially, we included easy-to-obtain risk factors to construct the model using the multivariable logistic regression analysis. The area under the ROC curves (AUC) with cross-validation methods was used to evaluate the performance of the model. Combined with local age- and sex-specific ESCC incidence and mortality rates, the model was then used to estimate the absolute risk of developing ESCC within 5 years.ResultsA relative risk model was established that included eight factors: age, sex, tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, education, and dietary habits (intake of hot food, intake of pickled/salted food, and intake of fresh fruit). The relative risk model had good discrimination [AUC, 0.785; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.749–0.821]. The estimated 5-year absolute risk of ESCC for individuals varied widely, from 0.0003% to 19.72% in the studied population, depending on the exposure to risk factors.ConclusionsOur model based on readily identifiable risk factors showed good discriminative accuracy and strong robustness. And it could be applied to identify individuals with a higher risk of developing ESCC in the Chinese population, who might benefit from further targeted screening to prevent esophageal cancer.
abstractGer	BackgroundEsophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) has a high incidence rate and poor prognosis. In this study, we aimed to develop a predictive model to estimate the individualized 5-year absolute risk for ESCC in Chinese populations living in the high-risk areas of China.MethodsWe developed a risk-predicting model based on the epidemiologic data from a population-based case-control study including 244 newly diagnosed ESCC patients and 1,220 healthy controls. Initially, we included easy-to-obtain risk factors to construct the model using the multivariable logistic regression analysis. The area under the ROC curves (AUC) with cross-validation methods was used to evaluate the performance of the model. Combined with local age- and sex-specific ESCC incidence and mortality rates, the model was then used to estimate the absolute risk of developing ESCC within 5 years.ResultsA relative risk model was established that included eight factors: age, sex, tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, education, and dietary habits (intake of hot food, intake of pickled/salted food, and intake of fresh fruit). The relative risk model had good discrimination [AUC, 0.785; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.749–0.821]. The estimated 5-year absolute risk of ESCC for individuals varied widely, from 0.0003% to 19.72% in the studied population, depending on the exposure to risk factors.ConclusionsOur model based on readily identifiable risk factors showed good discriminative accuracy and strong robustness. And it could be applied to identify individuals with a higher risk of developing ESCC in the Chinese population, who might benefit from further targeted screening to prevent esophageal cancer.
abstract_unstemmed	BackgroundEsophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) has a high incidence rate and poor prognosis. In this study, we aimed to develop a predictive model to estimate the individualized 5-year absolute risk for ESCC in Chinese populations living in the high-risk areas of China.MethodsWe developed a risk-predicting model based on the epidemiologic data from a population-based case-control study including 244 newly diagnosed ESCC patients and 1,220 healthy controls. Initially, we included easy-to-obtain risk factors to construct the model using the multivariable logistic regression analysis. The area under the ROC curves (AUC) with cross-validation methods was used to evaluate the performance of the model. Combined with local age- and sex-specific ESCC incidence and mortality rates, the model was then used to estimate the absolute risk of developing ESCC within 5 years.ResultsA relative risk model was established that included eight factors: age, sex, tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, education, and dietary habits (intake of hot food, intake of pickled/salted food, and intake of fresh fruit). The relative risk model had good discrimination [AUC, 0.785; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.749–0.821]. The estimated 5-year absolute risk of ESCC for individuals varied widely, from 0.0003% to 19.72% in the studied population, depending on the exposure to risk factors.ConclusionsOur model based on readily identifiable risk factors showed good discriminative accuracy and strong robustness. And it could be applied to identify individuals with a higher risk of developing ESCC in the Chinese population, who might benefit from further targeted screening to prevent esophageal cancer.
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title_short	Estimating Individualized Absolute Risk for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Population-Based Study in High-Risk Areas of China
url	https://doi.org/10.3389/fonc.2020.598603 https://doaj.org/article/64f32257c84b4b3c9551827a44c93b02 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2020.598603/full https://doaj.org/toc/2234-943X
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In this study, we aimed to develop a predictive model to estimate the individualized 5-year absolute risk for ESCC in Chinese populations living in the high-risk areas of China.MethodsWe developed a risk-predicting model based on the epidemiologic data from a population-based case-control study including 244 newly diagnosed ESCC patients and 1,220 healthy controls. Initially, we included easy-to-obtain risk factors to construct the model using the multivariable logistic regression analysis. The area under the ROC curves (AUC) with cross-validation methods was used to evaluate the performance of the model. Combined with local age- and sex-specific ESCC incidence and mortality rates, the model was then used to estimate the absolute risk of developing ESCC within 5 years.ResultsA relative risk model was established that included eight factors: age, sex, tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, education, and dietary habits (intake of hot food, intake of pickled/salted food, and intake of fresh fruit). The relative risk model had good discrimination [AUC, 0.785; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.749–0.821]. The estimated 5-year absolute risk of ESCC for individuals varied widely, from 0.0003% to 19.72% in the studied population, depending on the exposure to risk factors.ConclusionsOur model based on readily identifiable risk factors showed good discriminative accuracy and strong robustness. And it could be applied to identify individuals with a higher risk of developing ESCC in the Chinese population, who might benefit from further targeted screening to prevent esophageal cancer.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">absolute risk</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">individualized</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">esophageal squamous cell carcinoma</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">high-risk area</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">prediction model</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Neoplasms. Tumors. Oncology. Including cancer and carcinogens</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Shuanghua Xie</subfield><subfield code="e">verfasserin</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Lei Zhao</subfield><subfield code="e">verfasserin</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Guohui Song</subfield><subfield code="e">verfasserin</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Yi Shao</subfield><subfield code="e">verfasserin</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Changqing Hao</subfield><subfield code="e">verfasserin</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Chen Niu</subfield><subfield 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Estimating Individualized Absolute Risk for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Population-Based Study in High-Risk Areas of China

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