Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against local transmission of COVID-19: An individual-based modelling study

The outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has caused global transmission, and been spread all over the world. For those regions that are currently free of infected cases, it is an urgent issue to p...
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Autor*in:	Chuang Xu [verfasserIn] Yongzhen Pei [verfasserIn] Shengqiang Liu [verfasserIn] Jinzhi Lei [verfasserIn]

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2021

Schlagwörter:	COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Individual-based model Stochastic simulation Non-pharmaceutical intervention

Übergeordnetes Werk:	In: Infectious Disease Modelling - KeAi Communications Co., Ltd., 2017, 6(2021), Seite 848-858
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:6 ; year:2021 ; pages:848-858

Links:	Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Journal toc

DOI / URN:	10.1016/j.idm.2021.06.005

Katalog-ID:	DOAJ075386968

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520			\|a The outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has caused global transmission, and been spread all over the world. For those regions that are currently free of infected cases, it is an urgent issue to prevent and control the local outbreak of COVID-19 when there are sporadic cases. To evaluate the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions against local transmission of COVID-19, and to forecast the epidemic dynamics after local outbreak of diseases under different control measures, we developed an individual-based model (IBM) to simulate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 from a microscopic perspective of individual-to-individual contacts to heterogenous among individuals. Based on the model, we simulated the effects of different levels of non-pharmaceutical interventions in controlling disease transmission after the appearance of sporadic cases. Simulations shown that isolation of infected cases and quarantine of close contacts alone would not eliminate the local transmission of COVID-19, and there is a risk of a second wave epidemics. Quarantine the second-layer close contacts can obviously reduce the size of outbreak. Moreover, to effectively eliminate the daily new infections in a short time, it is necessary to reduce the individual-to-individual contacts. IBM provides a numerical representation for the local transmission of infectious diseases, and extends the compartmental models to include individual heterogeneity and the close contacts network. Our study suggests that combinations of self-isolation, quarantine of close contacts, and social distancing would be necessary to block the local transmission of COVID-19.
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spelling	10.1016/j.idm.2021.06.005 doi (DE-627)DOAJ075386968 (DE-599)DOAJ8e8b92d911354b48a1eec1a52bed546c DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng RC109-216 Chuang Xu verfasserin aut Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against local transmission of COVID-19: An individual-based modelling study 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier The outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has caused global transmission, and been spread all over the world. For those regions that are currently free of infected cases, it is an urgent issue to prevent and control the local outbreak of COVID-19 when there are sporadic cases. To evaluate the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions against local transmission of COVID-19, and to forecast the epidemic dynamics after local outbreak of diseases under different control measures, we developed an individual-based model (IBM) to simulate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 from a microscopic perspective of individual-to-individual contacts to heterogenous among individuals. Based on the model, we simulated the effects of different levels of non-pharmaceutical interventions in controlling disease transmission after the appearance of sporadic cases. Simulations shown that isolation of infected cases and quarantine of close contacts alone would not eliminate the local transmission of COVID-19, and there is a risk of a second wave epidemics. Quarantine the second-layer close contacts can obviously reduce the size of outbreak. Moreover, to effectively eliminate the daily new infections in a short time, it is necessary to reduce the individual-to-individual contacts. IBM provides a numerical representation for the local transmission of infectious diseases, and extends the compartmental models to include individual heterogeneity and the close contacts network. Our study suggests that combinations of self-isolation, quarantine of close contacts, and social distancing would be necessary to block the local transmission of COVID-19. COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Individual-based model Stochastic simulation Non-pharmaceutical intervention Infectious and parasitic diseases Yongzhen Pei verfasserin aut Shengqiang Liu verfasserin aut Jinzhi Lei verfasserin aut In Infectious Disease Modelling KeAi Communications Co., Ltd., 2017 6(2021), Seite 848-858 (DE-627)1694093298 (DE-600)3015225-2 24680427 nnns volume:6 year:2021 pages:848-858 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2021.06.005 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/8e8b92d911354b48a1eec1a52bed546c kostenfrei http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042721000440 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2468-0427 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 6 2021 848-858
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allfieldsGer	10.1016/j.idm.2021.06.005 doi (DE-627)DOAJ075386968 (DE-599)DOAJ8e8b92d911354b48a1eec1a52bed546c DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng RC109-216 Chuang Xu verfasserin aut Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against local transmission of COVID-19: An individual-based modelling study 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier The outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has caused global transmission, and been spread all over the world. For those regions that are currently free of infected cases, it is an urgent issue to prevent and control the local outbreak of COVID-19 when there are sporadic cases. To evaluate the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions against local transmission of COVID-19, and to forecast the epidemic dynamics after local outbreak of diseases under different control measures, we developed an individual-based model (IBM) to simulate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 from a microscopic perspective of individual-to-individual contacts to heterogenous among individuals. Based on the model, we simulated the effects of different levels of non-pharmaceutical interventions in controlling disease transmission after the appearance of sporadic cases. Simulations shown that isolation of infected cases and quarantine of close contacts alone would not eliminate the local transmission of COVID-19, and there is a risk of a second wave epidemics. Quarantine the second-layer close contacts can obviously reduce the size of outbreak. Moreover, to effectively eliminate the daily new infections in a short time, it is necessary to reduce the individual-to-individual contacts. IBM provides a numerical representation for the local transmission of infectious diseases, and extends the compartmental models to include individual heterogeneity and the close contacts network. Our study suggests that combinations of self-isolation, quarantine of close contacts, and social distancing would be necessary to block the local transmission of COVID-19. COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Individual-based model Stochastic simulation Non-pharmaceutical intervention Infectious and parasitic diseases Yongzhen Pei verfasserin aut Shengqiang Liu verfasserin aut Jinzhi Lei verfasserin aut In Infectious Disease Modelling KeAi Communications Co., Ltd., 2017 6(2021), Seite 848-858 (DE-627)1694093298 (DE-600)3015225-2 24680427 nnns volume:6 year:2021 pages:848-858 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2021.06.005 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/8e8b92d911354b48a1eec1a52bed546c kostenfrei http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042721000440 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2468-0427 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 6 2021 848-858
allfieldsSound	10.1016/j.idm.2021.06.005 doi (DE-627)DOAJ075386968 (DE-599)DOAJ8e8b92d911354b48a1eec1a52bed546c DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng RC109-216 Chuang Xu verfasserin aut Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against local transmission of COVID-19: An individual-based modelling study 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier The outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has caused global transmission, and been spread all over the world. For those regions that are currently free of infected cases, it is an urgent issue to prevent and control the local outbreak of COVID-19 when there are sporadic cases. To evaluate the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions against local transmission of COVID-19, and to forecast the epidemic dynamics after local outbreak of diseases under different control measures, we developed an individual-based model (IBM) to simulate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 from a microscopic perspective of individual-to-individual contacts to heterogenous among individuals. Based on the model, we simulated the effects of different levels of non-pharmaceutical interventions in controlling disease transmission after the appearance of sporadic cases. Simulations shown that isolation of infected cases and quarantine of close contacts alone would not eliminate the local transmission of COVID-19, and there is a risk of a second wave epidemics. Quarantine the second-layer close contacts can obviously reduce the size of outbreak. Moreover, to effectively eliminate the daily new infections in a short time, it is necessary to reduce the individual-to-individual contacts. IBM provides a numerical representation for the local transmission of infectious diseases, and extends the compartmental models to include individual heterogeneity and the close contacts network. Our study suggests that combinations of self-isolation, quarantine of close contacts, and social distancing would be necessary to block the local transmission of COVID-19. COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Individual-based model Stochastic simulation Non-pharmaceutical intervention Infectious and parasitic diseases Yongzhen Pei verfasserin aut Shengqiang Liu verfasserin aut Jinzhi Lei verfasserin aut In Infectious Disease Modelling KeAi Communications Co., Ltd., 2017 6(2021), Seite 848-858 (DE-627)1694093298 (DE-600)3015225-2 24680427 nnns volume:6 year:2021 pages:848-858 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2021.06.005 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/8e8b92d911354b48a1eec1a52bed546c kostenfrei http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042721000440 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2468-0427 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 6 2021 848-858
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callnumber-first	R - Medicine
author	Chuang Xu
spellingShingle	Chuang Xu misc RC109-216 misc COVID-19 misc SARS-CoV-2 misc Individual-based model misc Stochastic simulation misc Non-pharmaceutical intervention misc Infectious and parasitic diseases Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against local transmission of COVID-19: An individual-based modelling study
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topic_title	RC109-216 Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against local transmission of COVID-19: An individual-based modelling study COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Individual-based model Stochastic simulation Non-pharmaceutical intervention
topic	misc RC109-216 misc COVID-19 misc SARS-CoV-2 misc Individual-based model misc Stochastic simulation misc Non-pharmaceutical intervention misc Infectious and parasitic diseases
topic_unstemmed	misc RC109-216 misc COVID-19 misc SARS-CoV-2 misc Individual-based model misc Stochastic simulation misc Non-pharmaceutical intervention misc Infectious and parasitic diseases
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title	Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against local transmission of COVID-19: An individual-based modelling study
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title_full	Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against local transmission of COVID-19: An individual-based modelling study
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title_sort	effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against local transmission of covid-19: an individual-based modelling study
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title_auth	Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against local transmission of COVID-19: An individual-based modelling study
abstract	The outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has caused global transmission, and been spread all over the world. For those regions that are currently free of infected cases, it is an urgent issue to prevent and control the local outbreak of COVID-19 when there are sporadic cases. To evaluate the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions against local transmission of COVID-19, and to forecast the epidemic dynamics after local outbreak of diseases under different control measures, we developed an individual-based model (IBM) to simulate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 from a microscopic perspective of individual-to-individual contacts to heterogenous among individuals. Based on the model, we simulated the effects of different levels of non-pharmaceutical interventions in controlling disease transmission after the appearance of sporadic cases. Simulations shown that isolation of infected cases and quarantine of close contacts alone would not eliminate the local transmission of COVID-19, and there is a risk of a second wave epidemics. Quarantine the second-layer close contacts can obviously reduce the size of outbreak. Moreover, to effectively eliminate the daily new infections in a short time, it is necessary to reduce the individual-to-individual contacts. IBM provides a numerical representation for the local transmission of infectious diseases, and extends the compartmental models to include individual heterogeneity and the close contacts network. Our study suggests that combinations of self-isolation, quarantine of close contacts, and social distancing would be necessary to block the local transmission of COVID-19.
abstractGer	The outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has caused global transmission, and been spread all over the world. For those regions that are currently free of infected cases, it is an urgent issue to prevent and control the local outbreak of COVID-19 when there are sporadic cases. To evaluate the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions against local transmission of COVID-19, and to forecast the epidemic dynamics after local outbreak of diseases under different control measures, we developed an individual-based model (IBM) to simulate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 from a microscopic perspective of individual-to-individual contacts to heterogenous among individuals. Based on the model, we simulated the effects of different levels of non-pharmaceutical interventions in controlling disease transmission after the appearance of sporadic cases. Simulations shown that isolation of infected cases and quarantine of close contacts alone would not eliminate the local transmission of COVID-19, and there is a risk of a second wave epidemics. Quarantine the second-layer close contacts can obviously reduce the size of outbreak. Moreover, to effectively eliminate the daily new infections in a short time, it is necessary to reduce the individual-to-individual contacts. IBM provides a numerical representation for the local transmission of infectious diseases, and extends the compartmental models to include individual heterogeneity and the close contacts network. Our study suggests that combinations of self-isolation, quarantine of close contacts, and social distancing would be necessary to block the local transmission of COVID-19.
abstract_unstemmed	The outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has caused global transmission, and been spread all over the world. For those regions that are currently free of infected cases, it is an urgent issue to prevent and control the local outbreak of COVID-19 when there are sporadic cases. To evaluate the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions against local transmission of COVID-19, and to forecast the epidemic dynamics after local outbreak of diseases under different control measures, we developed an individual-based model (IBM) to simulate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 from a microscopic perspective of individual-to-individual contacts to heterogenous among individuals. Based on the model, we simulated the effects of different levels of non-pharmaceutical interventions in controlling disease transmission after the appearance of sporadic cases. Simulations shown that isolation of infected cases and quarantine of close contacts alone would not eliminate the local transmission of COVID-19, and there is a risk of a second wave epidemics. Quarantine the second-layer close contacts can obviously reduce the size of outbreak. Moreover, to effectively eliminate the daily new infections in a short time, it is necessary to reduce the individual-to-individual contacts. IBM provides a numerical representation for the local transmission of infectious diseases, and extends the compartmental models to include individual heterogeneity and the close contacts network. Our study suggests that combinations of self-isolation, quarantine of close contacts, and social distancing would be necessary to block the local transmission of COVID-19.
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title_short	Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against local transmission of COVID-19: An individual-based modelling study
url	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2021.06.005 https://doaj.org/article/8e8b92d911354b48a1eec1a52bed546c http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042721000440 https://doaj.org/toc/2468-0427
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author2	Yongzhen Pei Shengqiang Liu Jinzhi Lei
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up_date	2024-07-03T14:37:03.536Z
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Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against local transmission of COVID-19: An individual-based modelling study

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