Temporal distribution characteristics of earthquakes in Taiwan, China

The characteristics of seismic temporal distribution represent an important basis for earthquake prediction and seismic hazard analysis. In this paper, based on the seismic catalogs in Taiwan, and using Poisson (exponential distribution), Gamma, Lognormal, Weibull, and Brownian passage time distribu...
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Autor*in:	Weijin Xu [verfasserIn] Xuejing Li [verfasserIn] Mengtan Gao [verfasserIn]

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2023

Schlagwörter:	statistical seismology temporal distribution model temporal correlation gamma model probability of earthquake occurrence

Übergeordnetes Werk:	In: Frontiers in Earth Science - Frontiers Media S.A., 2014, 10(2023)
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:10 ; year:2023

Links:	Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Journal toc

DOI / URN:	10.3389/feart.2022.930468

Katalog-ID:	DOAJ081623763

Internformat


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520			\|a The characteristics of seismic temporal distribution represent an important basis for earthquake prediction and seismic hazard analysis. In this paper, based on the seismic catalogs in Taiwan, and using Poisson (exponential distribution), Gamma, Lognormal, Weibull, and Brownian passage time distributions as target models, we adopt the maximum likelihood method for estimating model parameters. The optimal model for describing the temporal distribution of earthquakes in Taiwan is determined according to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), K-S test, Chi-square test, and coefficient of determination R2 results. The results show that for moderate-strong earthquakes events (MW < 7.0), the Gamma distribution model can well describe the temporal distribution characteristics of earthquakes, while large earthquakes (MW ≥ 7.0) can be described entirely by exponential distribution. In addition, the temporal correlation between earthquakes is also examined through diffusion entropy analysis. The results show that seismic activity features temporal correlation, and earthquakes with relatively small magnitude (MW < 7) are affected by larger events (MW ≥ 7.0), thus suggesting long-term memory in time. In this study, the probability of the occurrence of a major earthquake in Taiwan is also calculated. The results show that the probability of an MW ≥ 7.0 earthquake in Taiwan in the next 10 years reaches 91.3%. The results may be used to inform the selection of seismic time distribution models and the calculation of seismic activity parameters in earthquake prediction and seismic hazard calculation, and hold scientific significance for understanding the mechanism of earthquake genesis.
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allfields	10.3389/feart.2022.930468 doi (DE-627)DOAJ081623763 (DE-599)DOAJfa76e7e2db034222a90f66406677fc85 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Weijin Xu verfasserin aut Temporal distribution characteristics of earthquakes in Taiwan, China 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier The characteristics of seismic temporal distribution represent an important basis for earthquake prediction and seismic hazard analysis. In this paper, based on the seismic catalogs in Taiwan, and using Poisson (exponential distribution), Gamma, Lognormal, Weibull, and Brownian passage time distributions as target models, we adopt the maximum likelihood method for estimating model parameters. The optimal model for describing the temporal distribution of earthquakes in Taiwan is determined according to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), K-S test, Chi-square test, and coefficient of determination R2 results. The results show that for moderate-strong earthquakes events (MW < 7.0), the Gamma distribution model can well describe the temporal distribution characteristics of earthquakes, while large earthquakes (MW ≥ 7.0) can be described entirely by exponential distribution. In addition, the temporal correlation between earthquakes is also examined through diffusion entropy analysis. The results show that seismic activity features temporal correlation, and earthquakes with relatively small magnitude (MW < 7) are affected by larger events (MW ≥ 7.0), thus suggesting long-term memory in time. In this study, the probability of the occurrence of a major earthquake in Taiwan is also calculated. The results show that the probability of an MW ≥ 7.0 earthquake in Taiwan in the next 10 years reaches 91.3%. The results may be used to inform the selection of seismic time distribution models and the calculation of seismic activity parameters in earthquake prediction and seismic hazard calculation, and hold scientific significance for understanding the mechanism of earthquake genesis. statistical seismology temporal distribution model temporal correlation gamma model probability of earthquake occurrence Science Q Xuejing Li verfasserin aut Mengtan Gao verfasserin aut In Frontiers in Earth Science Frontiers Media S.A., 2014 10(2023) (DE-627)771399731 (DE-600)2741235-0 22966463 nnns volume:10 year:2023 https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.930468 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/fa76e7e2db034222a90f66406677fc85 kostenfrei https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2022.930468/full kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2296-6463 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 10 2023
spelling	10.3389/feart.2022.930468 doi (DE-627)DOAJ081623763 (DE-599)DOAJfa76e7e2db034222a90f66406677fc85 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Weijin Xu verfasserin aut Temporal distribution characteristics of earthquakes in Taiwan, China 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier The characteristics of seismic temporal distribution represent an important basis for earthquake prediction and seismic hazard analysis. In this paper, based on the seismic catalogs in Taiwan, and using Poisson (exponential distribution), Gamma, Lognormal, Weibull, and Brownian passage time distributions as target models, we adopt the maximum likelihood method for estimating model parameters. The optimal model for describing the temporal distribution of earthquakes in Taiwan is determined according to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), K-S test, Chi-square test, and coefficient of determination R2 results. The results show that for moderate-strong earthquakes events (MW < 7.0), the Gamma distribution model can well describe the temporal distribution characteristics of earthquakes, while large earthquakes (MW ≥ 7.0) can be described entirely by exponential distribution. In addition, the temporal correlation between earthquakes is also examined through diffusion entropy analysis. The results show that seismic activity features temporal correlation, and earthquakes with relatively small magnitude (MW < 7) are affected by larger events (MW ≥ 7.0), thus suggesting long-term memory in time. In this study, the probability of the occurrence of a major earthquake in Taiwan is also calculated. The results show that the probability of an MW ≥ 7.0 earthquake in Taiwan in the next 10 years reaches 91.3%. The results may be used to inform the selection of seismic time distribution models and the calculation of seismic activity parameters in earthquake prediction and seismic hazard calculation, and hold scientific significance for understanding the mechanism of earthquake genesis. statistical seismology temporal distribution model temporal correlation gamma model probability of earthquake occurrence Science Q Xuejing Li verfasserin aut Mengtan Gao verfasserin aut In Frontiers in Earth Science Frontiers Media S.A., 2014 10(2023) (DE-627)771399731 (DE-600)2741235-0 22966463 nnns volume:10 year:2023 https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.930468 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/fa76e7e2db034222a90f66406677fc85 kostenfrei https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2022.930468/full kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2296-6463 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 10 2023
allfields_unstemmed	10.3389/feart.2022.930468 doi (DE-627)DOAJ081623763 (DE-599)DOAJfa76e7e2db034222a90f66406677fc85 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Weijin Xu verfasserin aut Temporal distribution characteristics of earthquakes in Taiwan, China 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier The characteristics of seismic temporal distribution represent an important basis for earthquake prediction and seismic hazard analysis. In this paper, based on the seismic catalogs in Taiwan, and using Poisson (exponential distribution), Gamma, Lognormal, Weibull, and Brownian passage time distributions as target models, we adopt the maximum likelihood method for estimating model parameters. The optimal model for describing the temporal distribution of earthquakes in Taiwan is determined according to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), K-S test, Chi-square test, and coefficient of determination R2 results. The results show that for moderate-strong earthquakes events (MW < 7.0), the Gamma distribution model can well describe the temporal distribution characteristics of earthquakes, while large earthquakes (MW ≥ 7.0) can be described entirely by exponential distribution. In addition, the temporal correlation between earthquakes is also examined through diffusion entropy analysis. The results show that seismic activity features temporal correlation, and earthquakes with relatively small magnitude (MW < 7) are affected by larger events (MW ≥ 7.0), thus suggesting long-term memory in time. In this study, the probability of the occurrence of a major earthquake in Taiwan is also calculated. The results show that the probability of an MW ≥ 7.0 earthquake in Taiwan in the next 10 years reaches 91.3%. The results may be used to inform the selection of seismic time distribution models and the calculation of seismic activity parameters in earthquake prediction and seismic hazard calculation, and hold scientific significance for understanding the mechanism of earthquake genesis. statistical seismology temporal distribution model temporal correlation gamma model probability of earthquake occurrence Science Q Xuejing Li verfasserin aut Mengtan Gao verfasserin aut In Frontiers in Earth Science Frontiers Media S.A., 2014 10(2023) (DE-627)771399731 (DE-600)2741235-0 22966463 nnns volume:10 year:2023 https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.930468 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/fa76e7e2db034222a90f66406677fc85 kostenfrei https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2022.930468/full kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2296-6463 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 10 2023
allfieldsGer	10.3389/feart.2022.930468 doi (DE-627)DOAJ081623763 (DE-599)DOAJfa76e7e2db034222a90f66406677fc85 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Weijin Xu verfasserin aut Temporal distribution characteristics of earthquakes in Taiwan, China 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier The characteristics of seismic temporal distribution represent an important basis for earthquake prediction and seismic hazard analysis. In this paper, based on the seismic catalogs in Taiwan, and using Poisson (exponential distribution), Gamma, Lognormal, Weibull, and Brownian passage time distributions as target models, we adopt the maximum likelihood method for estimating model parameters. The optimal model for describing the temporal distribution of earthquakes in Taiwan is determined according to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), K-S test, Chi-square test, and coefficient of determination R2 results. The results show that for moderate-strong earthquakes events (MW < 7.0), the Gamma distribution model can well describe the temporal distribution characteristics of earthquakes, while large earthquakes (MW ≥ 7.0) can be described entirely by exponential distribution. In addition, the temporal correlation between earthquakes is also examined through diffusion entropy analysis. The results show that seismic activity features temporal correlation, and earthquakes with relatively small magnitude (MW < 7) are affected by larger events (MW ≥ 7.0), thus suggesting long-term memory in time. In this study, the probability of the occurrence of a major earthquake in Taiwan is also calculated. The results show that the probability of an MW ≥ 7.0 earthquake in Taiwan in the next 10 years reaches 91.3%. The results may be used to inform the selection of seismic time distribution models and the calculation of seismic activity parameters in earthquake prediction and seismic hazard calculation, and hold scientific significance for understanding the mechanism of earthquake genesis. statistical seismology temporal distribution model temporal correlation gamma model probability of earthquake occurrence Science Q Xuejing Li verfasserin aut Mengtan Gao verfasserin aut In Frontiers in Earth Science Frontiers Media S.A., 2014 10(2023) (DE-627)771399731 (DE-600)2741235-0 22966463 nnns volume:10 year:2023 https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.930468 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/fa76e7e2db034222a90f66406677fc85 kostenfrei https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2022.930468/full kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2296-6463 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 10 2023
allfieldsSound	10.3389/feart.2022.930468 doi (DE-627)DOAJ081623763 (DE-599)DOAJfa76e7e2db034222a90f66406677fc85 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Weijin Xu verfasserin aut Temporal distribution characteristics of earthquakes in Taiwan, China 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier The characteristics of seismic temporal distribution represent an important basis for earthquake prediction and seismic hazard analysis. In this paper, based on the seismic catalogs in Taiwan, and using Poisson (exponential distribution), Gamma, Lognormal, Weibull, and Brownian passage time distributions as target models, we adopt the maximum likelihood method for estimating model parameters. The optimal model for describing the temporal distribution of earthquakes in Taiwan is determined according to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), K-S test, Chi-square test, and coefficient of determination R2 results. The results show that for moderate-strong earthquakes events (MW < 7.0), the Gamma distribution model can well describe the temporal distribution characteristics of earthquakes, while large earthquakes (MW ≥ 7.0) can be described entirely by exponential distribution. In addition, the temporal correlation between earthquakes is also examined through diffusion entropy analysis. The results show that seismic activity features temporal correlation, and earthquakes with relatively small magnitude (MW < 7) are affected by larger events (MW ≥ 7.0), thus suggesting long-term memory in time. In this study, the probability of the occurrence of a major earthquake in Taiwan is also calculated. The results show that the probability of an MW ≥ 7.0 earthquake in Taiwan in the next 10 years reaches 91.3%. The results may be used to inform the selection of seismic time distribution models and the calculation of seismic activity parameters in earthquake prediction and seismic hazard calculation, and hold scientific significance for understanding the mechanism of earthquake genesis. statistical seismology temporal distribution model temporal correlation gamma model probability of earthquake occurrence Science Q Xuejing Li verfasserin aut Mengtan Gao verfasserin aut In Frontiers in Earth Science Frontiers Media S.A., 2014 10(2023) (DE-627)771399731 (DE-600)2741235-0 22966463 nnns volume:10 year:2023 https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.930468 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/fa76e7e2db034222a90f66406677fc85 kostenfrei https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2022.930468/full kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2296-6463 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 10 2023
language	English
source	In Frontiers in Earth Science 10(2023) volume:10 year:2023
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topic_facet	statistical seismology temporal distribution model temporal correlation gamma model probability of earthquake occurrence Science Q
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container_title	Frontiers in Earth Science
authorswithroles_txt_mv	Weijin Xu @@aut@@ Xuejing Li @@aut@@ Mengtan Gao @@aut@@
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In this paper, based on the seismic catalogs in Taiwan, and using Poisson (exponential distribution), Gamma, Lognormal, Weibull, and Brownian passage time distributions as target models, we adopt the maximum likelihood method for estimating model parameters. The optimal model for describing the temporal distribution of earthquakes in Taiwan is determined according to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), K-S test, Chi-square test, and coefficient of determination R2 results. The results show that for moderate-strong earthquakes events (MW &lt; 7.0), the Gamma distribution model can well describe the temporal distribution characteristics of earthquakes, while large earthquakes (MW ≥ 7.0) can be described entirely by exponential distribution. In addition, the temporal correlation between earthquakes is also examined through diffusion entropy analysis. The results show that seismic activity features temporal correlation, and earthquakes with relatively small magnitude (MW &lt; 7) are affected by larger events (MW ≥ 7.0), thus suggesting long-term memory in time. In this study, the probability of the occurrence of a major earthquake in Taiwan is also calculated. The results show that the probability of an MW ≥ 7.0 earthquake in Taiwan in the next 10 years reaches 91.3%. 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author	Weijin Xu
spellingShingle	Weijin Xu misc statistical seismology misc temporal distribution model misc temporal correlation misc gamma model misc probability of earthquake occurrence misc Science misc Q Temporal distribution characteristics of earthquakes in Taiwan, China
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topic_title	Temporal distribution characteristics of earthquakes in Taiwan, China statistical seismology temporal distribution model temporal correlation gamma model probability of earthquake occurrence
topic	misc statistical seismology misc temporal distribution model misc temporal correlation misc gamma model misc probability of earthquake occurrence misc Science misc Q
topic_unstemmed	misc statistical seismology misc temporal distribution model misc temporal correlation misc gamma model misc probability of earthquake occurrence misc Science misc Q
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title	Temporal distribution characteristics of earthquakes in Taiwan, China
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title_full	Temporal distribution characteristics of earthquakes in Taiwan, China
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title_sort	temporal distribution characteristics of earthquakes in taiwan, china
title_auth	Temporal distribution characteristics of earthquakes in Taiwan, China
abstract	The characteristics of seismic temporal distribution represent an important basis for earthquake prediction and seismic hazard analysis. In this paper, based on the seismic catalogs in Taiwan, and using Poisson (exponential distribution), Gamma, Lognormal, Weibull, and Brownian passage time distributions as target models, we adopt the maximum likelihood method for estimating model parameters. The optimal model for describing the temporal distribution of earthquakes in Taiwan is determined according to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), K-S test, Chi-square test, and coefficient of determination R2 results. The results show that for moderate-strong earthquakes events (MW < 7.0), the Gamma distribution model can well describe the temporal distribution characteristics of earthquakes, while large earthquakes (MW ≥ 7.0) can be described entirely by exponential distribution. In addition, the temporal correlation between earthquakes is also examined through diffusion entropy analysis. The results show that seismic activity features temporal correlation, and earthquakes with relatively small magnitude (MW < 7) are affected by larger events (MW ≥ 7.0), thus suggesting long-term memory in time. In this study, the probability of the occurrence of a major earthquake in Taiwan is also calculated. The results show that the probability of an MW ≥ 7.0 earthquake in Taiwan in the next 10 years reaches 91.3%. The results may be used to inform the selection of seismic time distribution models and the calculation of seismic activity parameters in earthquake prediction and seismic hazard calculation, and hold scientific significance for understanding the mechanism of earthquake genesis.
abstractGer	The characteristics of seismic temporal distribution represent an important basis for earthquake prediction and seismic hazard analysis. In this paper, based on the seismic catalogs in Taiwan, and using Poisson (exponential distribution), Gamma, Lognormal, Weibull, and Brownian passage time distributions as target models, we adopt the maximum likelihood method for estimating model parameters. The optimal model for describing the temporal distribution of earthquakes in Taiwan is determined according to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), K-S test, Chi-square test, and coefficient of determination R2 results. The results show that for moderate-strong earthquakes events (MW < 7.0), the Gamma distribution model can well describe the temporal distribution characteristics of earthquakes, while large earthquakes (MW ≥ 7.0) can be described entirely by exponential distribution. In addition, the temporal correlation between earthquakes is also examined through diffusion entropy analysis. The results show that seismic activity features temporal correlation, and earthquakes with relatively small magnitude (MW < 7) are affected by larger events (MW ≥ 7.0), thus suggesting long-term memory in time. In this study, the probability of the occurrence of a major earthquake in Taiwan is also calculated. The results show that the probability of an MW ≥ 7.0 earthquake in Taiwan in the next 10 years reaches 91.3%. The results may be used to inform the selection of seismic time distribution models and the calculation of seismic activity parameters in earthquake prediction and seismic hazard calculation, and hold scientific significance for understanding the mechanism of earthquake genesis.
abstract_unstemmed	The characteristics of seismic temporal distribution represent an important basis for earthquake prediction and seismic hazard analysis. In this paper, based on the seismic catalogs in Taiwan, and using Poisson (exponential distribution), Gamma, Lognormal, Weibull, and Brownian passage time distributions as target models, we adopt the maximum likelihood method for estimating model parameters. The optimal model for describing the temporal distribution of earthquakes in Taiwan is determined according to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), K-S test, Chi-square test, and coefficient of determination R2 results. The results show that for moderate-strong earthquakes events (MW < 7.0), the Gamma distribution model can well describe the temporal distribution characteristics of earthquakes, while large earthquakes (MW ≥ 7.0) can be described entirely by exponential distribution. In addition, the temporal correlation between earthquakes is also examined through diffusion entropy analysis. The results show that seismic activity features temporal correlation, and earthquakes with relatively small magnitude (MW < 7) are affected by larger events (MW ≥ 7.0), thus suggesting long-term memory in time. In this study, the probability of the occurrence of a major earthquake in Taiwan is also calculated. The results show that the probability of an MW ≥ 7.0 earthquake in Taiwan in the next 10 years reaches 91.3%. The results may be used to inform the selection of seismic time distribution models and the calculation of seismic activity parameters in earthquake prediction and seismic hazard calculation, and hold scientific significance for understanding the mechanism of earthquake genesis.
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title_short	Temporal distribution characteristics of earthquakes in Taiwan, China
url	https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.930468 https://doaj.org/article/fa76e7e2db034222a90f66406677fc85 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2022.930468/full https://doaj.org/toc/2296-6463
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up_date	2024-07-03T20:59:08.386Z
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Temporal distribution characteristics of earthquakes in Taiwan, China

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