Global patterns and drivers of influenza decline during the COVID-19 pandemic

Objectives: The influenza circulation reportedly declined during the COVID-19 pandemic in many countries. The occurrence of this change has not been studied worldwide nor its potential drivers. Methods: The change in the proportion of positive influenza samples reported by country and trimester was...
Ausführliche Beschreibung

Gespeichert in:

Autor*in:	Francesco Bonacina [verfasserIn] Pierre-Yves Boëlle [verfasserIn] Vittoria Colizza [verfasserIn] Olivier Lopez [verfasserIn] Maud Thomas [verfasserIn] Chiara Poletto [verfasserIn]

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2023

Schlagwörter:	Influenza COVID-19 pandemic Global analysis Regression trees

Übergeordnetes Werk:	In: International Journal of Infectious Diseases - Elsevier, 2015, 128(2023), Seite 132-139
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:128 ; year:2023 ; pages:132-139

Links:	Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Journal toc

DOI / URN:	10.1016/j.ijid.2022.12.042

Katalog-ID:	DOAJ082788723

Internformat


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245	1	0	\|a Global patterns and drivers of influenza decline during the COVID-19 pandemic
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520			\|a Objectives: The influenza circulation reportedly declined during the COVID-19 pandemic in many countries. The occurrence of this change has not been studied worldwide nor its potential drivers. Methods: The change in the proportion of positive influenza samples reported by country and trimester was computed relative to the 2014-2019 period using the FluNet database. Random forests were used to determine predictors of change from demographical, weather, pandemic preparedness, COVID-19 incidence, and pandemic response characteristics. Regression trees were used to classify observations according to these predictors. Results: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the influenza decline relative to prepandemic levels was global but heterogeneous across space and time. It was more than 50% for 311 of 376 trimesters-countries and even more than 99% for 135. COVID-19 incidence and pandemic preparedness were the two most important predictors of the decline. Europe and North America initially showed limited decline despite high COVID-19 restrictions; however, there was a strong decline afterward in most temperate countries, where pandemic preparedness, COVID-19 incidence, and social restrictions were high; the decline was limited in countries where these factors were low. The “zero-COVID” countries experienced the greatest decline. Conclusion: Our findings set the stage for interpreting the resurgence of influenza worldwide.
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653		0	\|a Infectious and parasitic diseases
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700	0		\|a Vittoria Colizza \|e verfasserin \|4 aut
700	0		\|a Olivier Lopez \|e verfasserin \|4 aut
700	0		\|a Maud Thomas \|e verfasserin \|4 aut
700	0		\|a Chiara Poletto \|e verfasserin \|4 aut
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912			\|a GBV_ILN_293
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allfields	10.1016/j.ijid.2022.12.042 doi (DE-627)DOAJ082788723 (DE-599)DOAJe91dde91505a484399cb715ef83088e7 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng RC109-216 Francesco Bonacina verfasserin aut Global patterns and drivers of influenza decline during the COVID-19 pandemic 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Objectives: The influenza circulation reportedly declined during the COVID-19 pandemic in many countries. The occurrence of this change has not been studied worldwide nor its potential drivers. Methods: The change in the proportion of positive influenza samples reported by country and trimester was computed relative to the 2014-2019 period using the FluNet database. Random forests were used to determine predictors of change from demographical, weather, pandemic preparedness, COVID-19 incidence, and pandemic response characteristics. Regression trees were used to classify observations according to these predictors. Results: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the influenza decline relative to prepandemic levels was global but heterogeneous across space and time. It was more than 50% for 311 of 376 trimesters-countries and even more than 99% for 135. COVID-19 incidence and pandemic preparedness were the two most important predictors of the decline. Europe and North America initially showed limited decline despite high COVID-19 restrictions; however, there was a strong decline afterward in most temperate countries, where pandemic preparedness, COVID-19 incidence, and social restrictions were high; the decline was limited in countries where these factors were low. The “zero-COVID” countries experienced the greatest decline. Conclusion: Our findings set the stage for interpreting the resurgence of influenza worldwide. Influenza COVID-19 pandemic Global analysis Regression trees Infectious and parasitic diseases Pierre-Yves Boëlle verfasserin aut Vittoria Colizza verfasserin aut Olivier Lopez verfasserin aut Maud Thomas verfasserin aut Chiara Poletto verfasserin aut In International Journal of Infectious Diseases Elsevier, 2015 128(2023), Seite 132-139 (DE-627)341907669 (DE-600)2070533-5 18783511 nnns volume:128 year:2023 pages:132-139 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2022.12.042 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/e91dde91505a484399cb715ef83088e7 kostenfrei http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971222006828 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1201-9712 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 128 2023 132-139
spelling	10.1016/j.ijid.2022.12.042 doi (DE-627)DOAJ082788723 (DE-599)DOAJe91dde91505a484399cb715ef83088e7 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng RC109-216 Francesco Bonacina verfasserin aut Global patterns and drivers of influenza decline during the COVID-19 pandemic 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Objectives: The influenza circulation reportedly declined during the COVID-19 pandemic in many countries. The occurrence of this change has not been studied worldwide nor its potential drivers. Methods: The change in the proportion of positive influenza samples reported by country and trimester was computed relative to the 2014-2019 period using the FluNet database. Random forests were used to determine predictors of change from demographical, weather, pandemic preparedness, COVID-19 incidence, and pandemic response characteristics. Regression trees were used to classify observations according to these predictors. Results: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the influenza decline relative to prepandemic levels was global but heterogeneous across space and time. It was more than 50% for 311 of 376 trimesters-countries and even more than 99% for 135. COVID-19 incidence and pandemic preparedness were the two most important predictors of the decline. Europe and North America initially showed limited decline despite high COVID-19 restrictions; however, there was a strong decline afterward in most temperate countries, where pandemic preparedness, COVID-19 incidence, and social restrictions were high; the decline was limited in countries where these factors were low. The “zero-COVID” countries experienced the greatest decline. Conclusion: Our findings set the stage for interpreting the resurgence of influenza worldwide. Influenza COVID-19 pandemic Global analysis Regression trees Infectious and parasitic diseases Pierre-Yves Boëlle verfasserin aut Vittoria Colizza verfasserin aut Olivier Lopez verfasserin aut Maud Thomas verfasserin aut Chiara Poletto verfasserin aut In International Journal of Infectious Diseases Elsevier, 2015 128(2023), Seite 132-139 (DE-627)341907669 (DE-600)2070533-5 18783511 nnns volume:128 year:2023 pages:132-139 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2022.12.042 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/e91dde91505a484399cb715ef83088e7 kostenfrei http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971222006828 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1201-9712 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 128 2023 132-139
allfields_unstemmed	10.1016/j.ijid.2022.12.042 doi (DE-627)DOAJ082788723 (DE-599)DOAJe91dde91505a484399cb715ef83088e7 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng RC109-216 Francesco Bonacina verfasserin aut Global patterns and drivers of influenza decline during the COVID-19 pandemic 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Objectives: The influenza circulation reportedly declined during the COVID-19 pandemic in many countries. The occurrence of this change has not been studied worldwide nor its potential drivers. Methods: The change in the proportion of positive influenza samples reported by country and trimester was computed relative to the 2014-2019 period using the FluNet database. Random forests were used to determine predictors of change from demographical, weather, pandemic preparedness, COVID-19 incidence, and pandemic response characteristics. Regression trees were used to classify observations according to these predictors. Results: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the influenza decline relative to prepandemic levels was global but heterogeneous across space and time. It was more than 50% for 311 of 376 trimesters-countries and even more than 99% for 135. COVID-19 incidence and pandemic preparedness were the two most important predictors of the decline. Europe and North America initially showed limited decline despite high COVID-19 restrictions; however, there was a strong decline afterward in most temperate countries, where pandemic preparedness, COVID-19 incidence, and social restrictions were high; the decline was limited in countries where these factors were low. The “zero-COVID” countries experienced the greatest decline. Conclusion: Our findings set the stage for interpreting the resurgence of influenza worldwide. Influenza COVID-19 pandemic Global analysis Regression trees Infectious and parasitic diseases Pierre-Yves Boëlle verfasserin aut Vittoria Colizza verfasserin aut Olivier Lopez verfasserin aut Maud Thomas verfasserin aut Chiara Poletto verfasserin aut In International Journal of Infectious Diseases Elsevier, 2015 128(2023), Seite 132-139 (DE-627)341907669 (DE-600)2070533-5 18783511 nnns volume:128 year:2023 pages:132-139 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2022.12.042 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/e91dde91505a484399cb715ef83088e7 kostenfrei http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971222006828 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1201-9712 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 128 2023 132-139
allfieldsGer	10.1016/j.ijid.2022.12.042 doi (DE-627)DOAJ082788723 (DE-599)DOAJe91dde91505a484399cb715ef83088e7 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng RC109-216 Francesco Bonacina verfasserin aut Global patterns and drivers of influenza decline during the COVID-19 pandemic 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Objectives: The influenza circulation reportedly declined during the COVID-19 pandemic in many countries. The occurrence of this change has not been studied worldwide nor its potential drivers. Methods: The change in the proportion of positive influenza samples reported by country and trimester was computed relative to the 2014-2019 period using the FluNet database. Random forests were used to determine predictors of change from demographical, weather, pandemic preparedness, COVID-19 incidence, and pandemic response characteristics. Regression trees were used to classify observations according to these predictors. Results: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the influenza decline relative to prepandemic levels was global but heterogeneous across space and time. It was more than 50% for 311 of 376 trimesters-countries and even more than 99% for 135. COVID-19 incidence and pandemic preparedness were the two most important predictors of the decline. Europe and North America initially showed limited decline despite high COVID-19 restrictions; however, there was a strong decline afterward in most temperate countries, where pandemic preparedness, COVID-19 incidence, and social restrictions were high; the decline was limited in countries where these factors were low. The “zero-COVID” countries experienced the greatest decline. Conclusion: Our findings set the stage for interpreting the resurgence of influenza worldwide. Influenza COVID-19 pandemic Global analysis Regression trees Infectious and parasitic diseases Pierre-Yves Boëlle verfasserin aut Vittoria Colizza verfasserin aut Olivier Lopez verfasserin aut Maud Thomas verfasserin aut Chiara Poletto verfasserin aut In International Journal of Infectious Diseases Elsevier, 2015 128(2023), Seite 132-139 (DE-627)341907669 (DE-600)2070533-5 18783511 nnns volume:128 year:2023 pages:132-139 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2022.12.042 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/e91dde91505a484399cb715ef83088e7 kostenfrei http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971222006828 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1201-9712 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 128 2023 132-139
allfieldsSound	10.1016/j.ijid.2022.12.042 doi (DE-627)DOAJ082788723 (DE-599)DOAJe91dde91505a484399cb715ef83088e7 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng RC109-216 Francesco Bonacina verfasserin aut Global patterns and drivers of influenza decline during the COVID-19 pandemic 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Objectives: The influenza circulation reportedly declined during the COVID-19 pandemic in many countries. The occurrence of this change has not been studied worldwide nor its potential drivers. Methods: The change in the proportion of positive influenza samples reported by country and trimester was computed relative to the 2014-2019 period using the FluNet database. Random forests were used to determine predictors of change from demographical, weather, pandemic preparedness, COVID-19 incidence, and pandemic response characteristics. Regression trees were used to classify observations according to these predictors. Results: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the influenza decline relative to prepandemic levels was global but heterogeneous across space and time. It was more than 50% for 311 of 376 trimesters-countries and even more than 99% for 135. COVID-19 incidence and pandemic preparedness were the two most important predictors of the decline. Europe and North America initially showed limited decline despite high COVID-19 restrictions; however, there was a strong decline afterward in most temperate countries, where pandemic preparedness, COVID-19 incidence, and social restrictions were high; the decline was limited in countries where these factors were low. The “zero-COVID” countries experienced the greatest decline. Conclusion: Our findings set the stage for interpreting the resurgence of influenza worldwide. Influenza COVID-19 pandemic Global analysis Regression trees Infectious and parasitic diseases Pierre-Yves Boëlle verfasserin aut Vittoria Colizza verfasserin aut Olivier Lopez verfasserin aut Maud Thomas verfasserin aut Chiara Poletto verfasserin aut In International Journal of Infectious Diseases Elsevier, 2015 128(2023), Seite 132-139 (DE-627)341907669 (DE-600)2070533-5 18783511 nnns volume:128 year:2023 pages:132-139 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2022.12.042 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/e91dde91505a484399cb715ef83088e7 kostenfrei http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971222006828 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1201-9712 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 128 2023 132-139
language	English
source	In International Journal of Infectious Diseases 128(2023), Seite 132-139 volume:128 year:2023 pages:132-139
sourceStr	In International Journal of Infectious Diseases 128(2023), Seite 132-139 volume:128 year:2023 pages:132-139
format_phy_str_mv	Article
institution	findex.gbv.de
topic_facet	Influenza COVID-19 pandemic Global analysis Regression trees Infectious and parasitic diseases
isfreeaccess_bool	true
container_title	International Journal of Infectious Diseases
authorswithroles_txt_mv	Francesco Bonacina @@aut@@ Pierre-Yves Boëlle @@aut@@ Vittoria Colizza @@aut@@ Olivier Lopez @@aut@@ Maud Thomas @@aut@@ Chiara Poletto @@aut@@
publishDateDaySort_date	2023-01-01T00:00:00Z
hierarchy_top_id	341907669
id	DOAJ082788723
language_de	englisch
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callnumber-first	R - Medicine
author	Francesco Bonacina
spellingShingle	Francesco Bonacina misc RC109-216 misc Influenza misc COVID-19 pandemic misc Global analysis misc Regression trees misc Infectious and parasitic diseases Global patterns and drivers of influenza decline during the COVID-19 pandemic
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topic_title	RC109-216 Global patterns and drivers of influenza decline during the COVID-19 pandemic Influenza COVID-19 pandemic Global analysis Regression trees
topic	misc RC109-216 misc Influenza misc COVID-19 pandemic misc Global analysis misc Regression trees misc Infectious and parasitic diseases
topic_unstemmed	misc RC109-216 misc Influenza misc COVID-19 pandemic misc Global analysis misc Regression trees misc Infectious and parasitic diseases
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title	Global patterns and drivers of influenza decline during the COVID-19 pandemic
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title_full	Global patterns and drivers of influenza decline during the COVID-19 pandemic
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author_browse	Francesco Bonacina Pierre-Yves Boëlle Vittoria Colizza Olivier Lopez Maud Thomas Chiara Poletto
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title_sort	global patterns and drivers of influenza decline during the covid-19 pandemic
callnumber	RC109-216
title_auth	Global patterns and drivers of influenza decline during the COVID-19 pandemic
abstract	Objectives: The influenza circulation reportedly declined during the COVID-19 pandemic in many countries. The occurrence of this change has not been studied worldwide nor its potential drivers. Methods: The change in the proportion of positive influenza samples reported by country and trimester was computed relative to the 2014-2019 period using the FluNet database. Random forests were used to determine predictors of change from demographical, weather, pandemic preparedness, COVID-19 incidence, and pandemic response characteristics. Regression trees were used to classify observations according to these predictors. Results: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the influenza decline relative to prepandemic levels was global but heterogeneous across space and time. It was more than 50% for 311 of 376 trimesters-countries and even more than 99% for 135. COVID-19 incidence and pandemic preparedness were the two most important predictors of the decline. Europe and North America initially showed limited decline despite high COVID-19 restrictions; however, there was a strong decline afterward in most temperate countries, where pandemic preparedness, COVID-19 incidence, and social restrictions were high; the decline was limited in countries where these factors were low. The “zero-COVID” countries experienced the greatest decline. Conclusion: Our findings set the stage for interpreting the resurgence of influenza worldwide.
abstractGer	Objectives: The influenza circulation reportedly declined during the COVID-19 pandemic in many countries. The occurrence of this change has not been studied worldwide nor its potential drivers. Methods: The change in the proportion of positive influenza samples reported by country and trimester was computed relative to the 2014-2019 period using the FluNet database. Random forests were used to determine predictors of change from demographical, weather, pandemic preparedness, COVID-19 incidence, and pandemic response characteristics. Regression trees were used to classify observations according to these predictors. Results: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the influenza decline relative to prepandemic levels was global but heterogeneous across space and time. It was more than 50% for 311 of 376 trimesters-countries and even more than 99% for 135. COVID-19 incidence and pandemic preparedness were the two most important predictors of the decline. Europe and North America initially showed limited decline despite high COVID-19 restrictions; however, there was a strong decline afterward in most temperate countries, where pandemic preparedness, COVID-19 incidence, and social restrictions were high; the decline was limited in countries where these factors were low. The “zero-COVID” countries experienced the greatest decline. Conclusion: Our findings set the stage for interpreting the resurgence of influenza worldwide.
abstract_unstemmed	Objectives: The influenza circulation reportedly declined during the COVID-19 pandemic in many countries. The occurrence of this change has not been studied worldwide nor its potential drivers. Methods: The change in the proportion of positive influenza samples reported by country and trimester was computed relative to the 2014-2019 period using the FluNet database. Random forests were used to determine predictors of change from demographical, weather, pandemic preparedness, COVID-19 incidence, and pandemic response characteristics. Regression trees were used to classify observations according to these predictors. Results: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the influenza decline relative to prepandemic levels was global but heterogeneous across space and time. It was more than 50% for 311 of 376 trimesters-countries and even more than 99% for 135. COVID-19 incidence and pandemic preparedness were the two most important predictors of the decline. Europe and North America initially showed limited decline despite high COVID-19 restrictions; however, there was a strong decline afterward in most temperate countries, where pandemic preparedness, COVID-19 incidence, and social restrictions were high; the decline was limited in countries where these factors were low. The “zero-COVID” countries experienced the greatest decline. Conclusion: Our findings set the stage for interpreting the resurgence of influenza worldwide.
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title_short	Global patterns and drivers of influenza decline during the COVID-19 pandemic
url	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2022.12.042 https://doaj.org/article/e91dde91505a484399cb715ef83088e7 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971222006828 https://doaj.org/toc/1201-9712
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author2	Pierre-Yves Boëlle Vittoria Colizza Olivier Lopez Maud Thomas Chiara Poletto
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up_date	2024-07-03T13:50:04.120Z
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Global patterns and drivers of influenza decline during the COVID-19 pandemic

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