Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data [version 3; peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations]

Policymakers in Africa need robust estimates of the current and future spread of SARS-CoV-2. We used national surveillance PCR test, serological survey and mobility data to develop and fit a county-specific transmission model for Kenya up to the end of September 2020, which encompasses the first wav...
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Autor*in:	Sophie Uyoga [verfasserIn] Ambrose Agweyu [verfasserIn] Rabia Aziza [verfasserIn] Edwine Barasa [verfasserIn] Benjamin Tsofa [verfasserIn] Philip Bejon [verfasserIn] Edward Otieno [verfasserIn] Morris Ogero [verfasserIn] John Ojal [verfasserIn] Vincent Were [verfasserIn] Samuel P. C. Brand [verfasserIn] Ivy K. Kombe [verfasserIn] Emelda A. Okiro [verfasserIn] George M. Warimwe [verfasserIn] Caroline Mburu [verfasserIn] J. Anthony G. Scott [verfasserIn] Ifedayo M. O. Adetifa [verfasserIn] Charles N. Agoti [verfasserIn] Lynette I. Ochola-Oyier [verfasserIn] Patrick Amoth [verfasserIn] Kadondi Kasera [verfasserIn] Rashid Aman [verfasserIn] Mercy Mwangangi [verfasserIn] Matt J. Keeling [verfasserIn] Wangari Ng’ang’a [verfasserIn] D. James Nokes [verfasserIn]

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2022

Schlagwörter:	SARS-CoV-2 Kenya dynamic model serology PCR cases eng

Übergeordnetes Werk:	In: Wellcome Open Research - Wellcome, 2017, 6(2022)
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:6 ; year:2022

Links:	Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Journal toc

DOI / URN:	10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16748.3

Katalog-ID:	DOAJ084474629

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allfields	10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16748.3 doi (DE-627)DOAJ084474629 (DE-599)DOAJd7c6cef1f5d941efbd514c1f3c0a5ccc DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Sophie Uyoga verfasserin aut Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data [version 3; peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations] 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Policymakers in Africa need robust estimates of the current and future spread of SARS-CoV-2. We used national surveillance PCR test, serological survey and mobility data to develop and fit a county-specific transmission model for Kenya up to the end of September 2020, which encompasses the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the country. We estimate that the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked before the end of July 2020 in the major urban counties, with 30-50% of residents infected. Our analysis suggests, first, that the reported low COVID-19 disease burden in Kenya cannot be explained solely by limited spread of the virus, and second, that a 30-50% attack rate was not sufficient to avoid a further wave of transmission. SARS-CoV-2 Kenya dynamic model serology PCR cases eng Medicine R Science Q Ambrose Agweyu verfasserin aut Rabia Aziza verfasserin aut Edwine Barasa verfasserin aut Benjamin Tsofa verfasserin aut Philip Bejon verfasserin aut Edward Otieno verfasserin aut Morris Ogero verfasserin aut John Ojal verfasserin aut Vincent Were verfasserin aut Samuel P. C. Brand verfasserin aut Ivy K. Kombe verfasserin aut Emelda A. Okiro verfasserin aut George M. Warimwe verfasserin aut Caroline Mburu verfasserin aut J. Anthony G. Scott verfasserin aut Ifedayo M. O. Adetifa verfasserin aut Charles N. Agoti verfasserin aut Lynette I. Ochola-Oyier verfasserin aut Patrick Amoth verfasserin aut Kadondi Kasera verfasserin aut Rashid Aman verfasserin aut Mercy Mwangangi verfasserin aut Matt J. Keeling verfasserin aut Wangari Ng’ang’a verfasserin aut D. James Nokes verfasserin aut In Wellcome Open Research Wellcome, 2017 6(2022) (DE-627)872620239 (DE-600)2874778-1 2398502X nnns volume:6 year:2022 https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16748.3 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/d7c6cef1f5d941efbd514c1f3c0a5ccc kostenfrei https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/6-127/v3 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2398-502X Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 6 2022
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allfields_unstemmed	10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16748.3 doi (DE-627)DOAJ084474629 (DE-599)DOAJd7c6cef1f5d941efbd514c1f3c0a5ccc DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Sophie Uyoga verfasserin aut Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data [version 3; peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations] 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Policymakers in Africa need robust estimates of the current and future spread of SARS-CoV-2. We used national surveillance PCR test, serological survey and mobility data to develop and fit a county-specific transmission model for Kenya up to the end of September 2020, which encompasses the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the country. We estimate that the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked before the end of July 2020 in the major urban counties, with 30-50% of residents infected. Our analysis suggests, first, that the reported low COVID-19 disease burden in Kenya cannot be explained solely by limited spread of the virus, and second, that a 30-50% attack rate was not sufficient to avoid a further wave of transmission. SARS-CoV-2 Kenya dynamic model serology PCR cases eng Medicine R Science Q Ambrose Agweyu verfasserin aut Rabia Aziza verfasserin aut Edwine Barasa verfasserin aut Benjamin Tsofa verfasserin aut Philip Bejon verfasserin aut Edward Otieno verfasserin aut Morris Ogero verfasserin aut John Ojal verfasserin aut Vincent Were verfasserin aut Samuel P. C. Brand verfasserin aut Ivy K. Kombe verfasserin aut Emelda A. Okiro verfasserin aut George M. Warimwe verfasserin aut Caroline Mburu verfasserin aut J. Anthony G. Scott verfasserin aut Ifedayo M. O. Adetifa verfasserin aut Charles N. Agoti verfasserin aut Lynette I. Ochola-Oyier verfasserin aut Patrick Amoth verfasserin aut Kadondi Kasera verfasserin aut Rashid Aman verfasserin aut Mercy Mwangangi verfasserin aut Matt J. Keeling verfasserin aut Wangari Ng’ang’a verfasserin aut D. James Nokes verfasserin aut In Wellcome Open Research Wellcome, 2017 6(2022) (DE-627)872620239 (DE-600)2874778-1 2398502X nnns volume:6 year:2022 https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16748.3 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/d7c6cef1f5d941efbd514c1f3c0a5ccc kostenfrei https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/6-127/v3 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2398-502X Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 6 2022
allfieldsGer	10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16748.3 doi (DE-627)DOAJ084474629 (DE-599)DOAJd7c6cef1f5d941efbd514c1f3c0a5ccc DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Sophie Uyoga verfasserin aut Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data [version 3; peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations] 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Policymakers in Africa need robust estimates of the current and future spread of SARS-CoV-2. We used national surveillance PCR test, serological survey and mobility data to develop and fit a county-specific transmission model for Kenya up to the end of September 2020, which encompasses the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the country. We estimate that the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked before the end of July 2020 in the major urban counties, with 30-50% of residents infected. Our analysis suggests, first, that the reported low COVID-19 disease burden in Kenya cannot be explained solely by limited spread of the virus, and second, that a 30-50% attack rate was not sufficient to avoid a further wave of transmission. SARS-CoV-2 Kenya dynamic model serology PCR cases eng Medicine R Science Q Ambrose Agweyu verfasserin aut Rabia Aziza verfasserin aut Edwine Barasa verfasserin aut Benjamin Tsofa verfasserin aut Philip Bejon verfasserin aut Edward Otieno verfasserin aut Morris Ogero verfasserin aut John Ojal verfasserin aut Vincent Were verfasserin aut Samuel P. C. Brand verfasserin aut Ivy K. Kombe verfasserin aut Emelda A. Okiro verfasserin aut George M. Warimwe verfasserin aut Caroline Mburu verfasserin aut J. Anthony G. Scott verfasserin aut Ifedayo M. O. Adetifa verfasserin aut Charles N. Agoti verfasserin aut Lynette I. Ochola-Oyier verfasserin aut Patrick Amoth verfasserin aut Kadondi Kasera verfasserin aut Rashid Aman verfasserin aut Mercy Mwangangi verfasserin aut Matt J. Keeling verfasserin aut Wangari Ng’ang’a verfasserin aut D. James Nokes verfasserin aut In Wellcome Open Research Wellcome, 2017 6(2022) (DE-627)872620239 (DE-600)2874778-1 2398502X nnns volume:6 year:2022 https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16748.3 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/d7c6cef1f5d941efbd514c1f3c0a5ccc kostenfrei https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/6-127/v3 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2398-502X Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 6 2022
allfieldsSound	10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16748.3 doi (DE-627)DOAJ084474629 (DE-599)DOAJd7c6cef1f5d941efbd514c1f3c0a5ccc DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Sophie Uyoga verfasserin aut Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data [version 3; peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations] 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Policymakers in Africa need robust estimates of the current and future spread of SARS-CoV-2. We used national surveillance PCR test, serological survey and mobility data to develop and fit a county-specific transmission model for Kenya up to the end of September 2020, which encompasses the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the country. We estimate that the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked before the end of July 2020 in the major urban counties, with 30-50% of residents infected. Our analysis suggests, first, that the reported low COVID-19 disease burden in Kenya cannot be explained solely by limited spread of the virus, and second, that a 30-50% attack rate was not sufficient to avoid a further wave of transmission. SARS-CoV-2 Kenya dynamic model serology PCR cases eng Medicine R Science Q Ambrose Agweyu verfasserin aut Rabia Aziza verfasserin aut Edwine Barasa verfasserin aut Benjamin Tsofa verfasserin aut Philip Bejon verfasserin aut Edward Otieno verfasserin aut Morris Ogero verfasserin aut John Ojal verfasserin aut Vincent Were verfasserin aut Samuel P. C. Brand verfasserin aut Ivy K. Kombe verfasserin aut Emelda A. Okiro verfasserin aut George M. Warimwe verfasserin aut Caroline Mburu verfasserin aut J. Anthony G. Scott verfasserin aut Ifedayo M. O. Adetifa verfasserin aut Charles N. Agoti verfasserin aut Lynette I. Ochola-Oyier verfasserin aut Patrick Amoth verfasserin aut Kadondi Kasera verfasserin aut Rashid Aman verfasserin aut Mercy Mwangangi verfasserin aut Matt J. Keeling verfasserin aut Wangari Ng’ang’a verfasserin aut D. James Nokes verfasserin aut In Wellcome Open Research Wellcome, 2017 6(2022) (DE-627)872620239 (DE-600)2874778-1 2398502X nnns volume:6 year:2022 https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16748.3 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/d7c6cef1f5d941efbd514c1f3c0a5ccc kostenfrei https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/6-127/v3 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2398-502X Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 6 2022
language	English
source	In Wellcome Open Research 6(2022) volume:6 year:2022
sourceStr	In Wellcome Open Research 6(2022) volume:6 year:2022
format_phy_str_mv	Article
institution	findex.gbv.de
topic_facet	SARS-CoV-2 Kenya dynamic model serology PCR cases eng Medicine R Science Q
isfreeaccess_bool	true
container_title	Wellcome Open Research
authorswithroles_txt_mv	Sophie Uyoga @@aut@@ Ambrose Agweyu @@aut@@ Rabia Aziza @@aut@@ Edwine Barasa @@aut@@ Benjamin Tsofa @@aut@@ Philip Bejon @@aut@@ Edward Otieno @@aut@@ Morris Ogero @@aut@@ John Ojal @@aut@@ Vincent Were @@aut@@ Samuel P. C. Brand @@aut@@ Ivy K. Kombe @@aut@@ Emelda A. Okiro @@aut@@ George M. Warimwe @@aut@@ Caroline Mburu @@aut@@ J. Anthony G. Scott @@aut@@ Ifedayo M. O. Adetifa @@aut@@ Charles N. Agoti @@aut@@ Lynette I. Ochola-Oyier @@aut@@ Patrick Amoth @@aut@@ Kadondi Kasera @@aut@@ Rashid Aman @@aut@@ Mercy Mwangangi @@aut@@ Matt J. Keeling @@aut@@ Wangari Ng’ang’a @@aut@@ D. James Nokes @@aut@@
publishDateDaySort_date	2022-01-01T00:00:00Z
hierarchy_top_id	872620239
id	DOAJ084474629
language_de	englisch
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author	Sophie Uyoga
spellingShingle	Sophie Uyoga misc SARS-CoV-2 misc Kenya misc dynamic model misc serology misc PCR cases misc eng misc Medicine misc R misc Science misc Q Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data [version 3; peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations]
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topic_title	Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data [version 3; peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations] SARS-CoV-2 Kenya dynamic model serology PCR cases eng
topic	misc SARS-CoV-2 misc Kenya misc dynamic model misc serology misc PCR cases misc eng misc Medicine misc R misc Science misc Q
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title	Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data [version 3; peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations]
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title_full	Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data [version 3; peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations]
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author_browse	Sophie Uyoga Ambrose Agweyu Rabia Aziza Edwine Barasa Benjamin Tsofa Philip Bejon Edward Otieno Morris Ogero John Ojal Vincent Were Samuel P. C. Brand Ivy K. Kombe Emelda A. Okiro George M. Warimwe Caroline Mburu J. Anthony G. Scott Ifedayo M. O. Adetifa Charles N. Agoti Lynette I. Ochola-Oyier Patrick Amoth Kadondi Kasera Rashid Aman Mercy Mwangangi Matt J. Keeling Wangari Ng’ang’a D. James Nokes
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title_sort	revealing the extent of the first wave of the covid-19 pandemic in kenya based on serological and pcr-test data [version 3; peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations]
title_auth	Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data [version 3; peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations]
abstract	Policymakers in Africa need robust estimates of the current and future spread of SARS-CoV-2. We used national surveillance PCR test, serological survey and mobility data to develop and fit a county-specific transmission model for Kenya up to the end of September 2020, which encompasses the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the country. We estimate that the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked before the end of July 2020 in the major urban counties, with 30-50% of residents infected. Our analysis suggests, first, that the reported low COVID-19 disease burden in Kenya cannot be explained solely by limited spread of the virus, and second, that a 30-50% attack rate was not sufficient to avoid a further wave of transmission.
abstractGer	Policymakers in Africa need robust estimates of the current and future spread of SARS-CoV-2. We used national surveillance PCR test, serological survey and mobility data to develop and fit a county-specific transmission model for Kenya up to the end of September 2020, which encompasses the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the country. We estimate that the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked before the end of July 2020 in the major urban counties, with 30-50% of residents infected. Our analysis suggests, first, that the reported low COVID-19 disease burden in Kenya cannot be explained solely by limited spread of the virus, and second, that a 30-50% attack rate was not sufficient to avoid a further wave of transmission.
abstract_unstemmed	Policymakers in Africa need robust estimates of the current and future spread of SARS-CoV-2. We used national surveillance PCR test, serological survey and mobility data to develop and fit a county-specific transmission model for Kenya up to the end of September 2020, which encompasses the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the country. We estimate that the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked before the end of July 2020 in the major urban counties, with 30-50% of residents infected. Our analysis suggests, first, that the reported low COVID-19 disease burden in Kenya cannot be explained solely by limited spread of the virus, and second, that a 30-50% attack rate was not sufficient to avoid a further wave of transmission.
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title_short	Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data [version 3; peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations]
url	https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16748.3 https://doaj.org/article/d7c6cef1f5d941efbd514c1f3c0a5ccc https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/6-127/v3 https://doaj.org/toc/2398-502X
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author2	Ambrose Agweyu Rabia Aziza Edwine Barasa Benjamin Tsofa Philip Bejon Edward Otieno Morris Ogero John Ojal Vincent Were Samuel P. C. Brand Ivy K. Kombe Emelda A. Okiro George M. Warimwe Caroline Mburu J. Anthony G. Scott Ifedayo M. O. Adetifa Charles N. Agoti Lynette I. Ochola-Oyier Patrick Amoth Kadondi Kasera Rashid Aman Mercy Mwangangi Matt J. Keeling Wangari Ng’ang’a D. James Nokes
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up_date	2024-07-03T23:12:12.102Z
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Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data [version 3; peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations]

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