Gambler’s fallacy, hot hand belief, and the time of patterns

The gambler’s fallacy and the hot hand belief have been classified as two exemplars of human misperceptions of random sequential events. This article examines the times of pattern occurrences where a fair or biased coin is tossed repeatedly. We demonstrate that, due to different pattern composition,...
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Autor*in:	Yanlong Sun [verfasserIn] Hongbin Wang [verfasserIn]

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2010

Schlagwörter:	gambler’s fallacy hot hand belief heuristics mean time waiting time

Übergeordnetes Werk:	In: Judgment and Decision Making - Cambridge University Press, 2007, 5(2010), Seite 124-132
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:5 ; year:2010 ; pages:124-132

Links:	Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Journal toc

DOI / URN:	10.1017/S193029750000098X

Katalog-ID:	DOAJ087823934

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520			\|a The gambler’s fallacy and the hot hand belief have been classified as two exemplars of human misperceptions of random sequential events. This article examines the times of pattern occurrences where a fair or biased coin is tossed repeatedly. We demonstrate that, due to different pattern composition, two different statistics (mean time and waiting time) can arise from the same independent Bernoulli trials. When the coin is fair, the mean time is equal for all patterns of the same length but the waiting time is the longest for streak patterns. When the coin is biased, both mean time and waiting time change more rapidly with the probability of heads for a streak pattern than for a non-streak pattern. These facts might provide a new insight for understanding why people view streak patterns as rare and remarkable. The statistics of waiting time may not justify the prediction by the gambler’s fallacy, but paying attention to streaks in the hot hand belief appears to be meaningful in detecting the changes in the underlying process.
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allfieldsGer	10.1017/S193029750000098X doi (DE-627)DOAJ087823934 (DE-599)DOAJ4f11bfc206d9484c8e3f58b97b244d15 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng BF1-990 Yanlong Sun verfasserin aut Gambler’s fallacy, hot hand belief, and the time of patterns 2010 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier The gambler’s fallacy and the hot hand belief have been classified as two exemplars of human misperceptions of random sequential events. This article examines the times of pattern occurrences where a fair or biased coin is tossed repeatedly. We demonstrate that, due to different pattern composition, two different statistics (mean time and waiting time) can arise from the same independent Bernoulli trials. When the coin is fair, the mean time is equal for all patterns of the same length but the waiting time is the longest for streak patterns. When the coin is biased, both mean time and waiting time change more rapidly with the probability of heads for a streak pattern than for a non-streak pattern. These facts might provide a new insight for understanding why people view streak patterns as rare and remarkable. The statistics of waiting time may not justify the prediction by the gambler’s fallacy, but paying attention to streaks in the hot hand belief appears to be meaningful in detecting the changes in the underlying process. gambler’s fallacy hot hand belief heuristics mean time waiting time Social Sciences H Psychology Hongbin Wang verfasserin aut In Judgment and Decision Making Cambridge University Press, 2007 5(2010), Seite 124-132 (DE-627)529766574 (DE-600)2316185-1 19302975 nnns volume:5 year:2010 pages:124-132 https://doi.org/10.1017/S193029750000098X kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/4f11bfc206d9484c8e3f58b97b244d15 kostenfrei https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S193029750000098X/type/journal_article kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1930-2975 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 5 2010 124-132
allfieldsSound	10.1017/S193029750000098X doi (DE-627)DOAJ087823934 (DE-599)DOAJ4f11bfc206d9484c8e3f58b97b244d15 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng BF1-990 Yanlong Sun verfasserin aut Gambler’s fallacy, hot hand belief, and the time of patterns 2010 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier The gambler’s fallacy and the hot hand belief have been classified as two exemplars of human misperceptions of random sequential events. This article examines the times of pattern occurrences where a fair or biased coin is tossed repeatedly. We demonstrate that, due to different pattern composition, two different statistics (mean time and waiting time) can arise from the same independent Bernoulli trials. When the coin is fair, the mean time is equal for all patterns of the same length but the waiting time is the longest for streak patterns. When the coin is biased, both mean time and waiting time change more rapidly with the probability of heads for a streak pattern than for a non-streak pattern. These facts might provide a new insight for understanding why people view streak patterns as rare and remarkable. The statistics of waiting time may not justify the prediction by the gambler’s fallacy, but paying attention to streaks in the hot hand belief appears to be meaningful in detecting the changes in the underlying process. gambler’s fallacy hot hand belief heuristics mean time waiting time Social Sciences H Psychology Hongbin Wang verfasserin aut In Judgment and Decision Making Cambridge University Press, 2007 5(2010), Seite 124-132 (DE-627)529766574 (DE-600)2316185-1 19302975 nnns volume:5 year:2010 pages:124-132 https://doi.org/10.1017/S193029750000098X kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/4f11bfc206d9484c8e3f58b97b244d15 kostenfrei https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S193029750000098X/type/journal_article kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1930-2975 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 5 2010 124-132
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source	In Judgment and Decision Making 5(2010), Seite 124-132 volume:5 year:2010 pages:124-132
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callnumber-first	B - Philosophy, Psychology, Religion
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topic_title	BF1-990 Gambler’s fallacy, hot hand belief, and the time of patterns gambler’s fallacy hot hand belief heuristics mean time waiting time
topic	misc BF1-990 misc gambler’s fallacy misc hot hand belief misc heuristics misc mean time misc waiting time misc Social Sciences misc H misc Psychology
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title_sort	gambler’s fallacy, hot hand belief, and the time of patterns
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title_auth	Gambler’s fallacy, hot hand belief, and the time of patterns
abstract	The gambler’s fallacy and the hot hand belief have been classified as two exemplars of human misperceptions of random sequential events. This article examines the times of pattern occurrences where a fair or biased coin is tossed repeatedly. We demonstrate that, due to different pattern composition, two different statistics (mean time and waiting time) can arise from the same independent Bernoulli trials. When the coin is fair, the mean time is equal for all patterns of the same length but the waiting time is the longest for streak patterns. When the coin is biased, both mean time and waiting time change more rapidly with the probability of heads for a streak pattern than for a non-streak pattern. These facts might provide a new insight for understanding why people view streak patterns as rare and remarkable. The statistics of waiting time may not justify the prediction by the gambler’s fallacy, but paying attention to streaks in the hot hand belief appears to be meaningful in detecting the changes in the underlying process.
abstractGer	The gambler’s fallacy and the hot hand belief have been classified as two exemplars of human misperceptions of random sequential events. This article examines the times of pattern occurrences where a fair or biased coin is tossed repeatedly. We demonstrate that, due to different pattern composition, two different statistics (mean time and waiting time) can arise from the same independent Bernoulli trials. When the coin is fair, the mean time is equal for all patterns of the same length but the waiting time is the longest for streak patterns. When the coin is biased, both mean time and waiting time change more rapidly with the probability of heads for a streak pattern than for a non-streak pattern. These facts might provide a new insight for understanding why people view streak patterns as rare and remarkable. The statistics of waiting time may not justify the prediction by the gambler’s fallacy, but paying attention to streaks in the hot hand belief appears to be meaningful in detecting the changes in the underlying process.
abstract_unstemmed	The gambler’s fallacy and the hot hand belief have been classified as two exemplars of human misperceptions of random sequential events. This article examines the times of pattern occurrences where a fair or biased coin is tossed repeatedly. We demonstrate that, due to different pattern composition, two different statistics (mean time and waiting time) can arise from the same independent Bernoulli trials. When the coin is fair, the mean time is equal for all patterns of the same length but the waiting time is the longest for streak patterns. When the coin is biased, both mean time and waiting time change more rapidly with the probability of heads for a streak pattern than for a non-streak pattern. These facts might provide a new insight for understanding why people view streak patterns as rare and remarkable. The statistics of waiting time may not justify the prediction by the gambler’s fallacy, but paying attention to streaks in the hot hand belief appears to be meaningful in detecting the changes in the underlying process.
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title_short	Gambler’s fallacy, hot hand belief, and the time of patterns
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score	7.4013996

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Gambler’s fallacy, hot hand belief, and the time of patterns

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