A New Graph-Based Deep Learning Model to Predict Flooding with Validation on a Case Study on the Humber River
Floods are one of the most lethal natural disasters. It is crucial to forecast the timing and evolution of these events and create an advanced warning system to allow for the proper implementation of preventive measures. This work introduced a new graph-based forecasting model, namely, graph neural...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Autor*in: |
Victor Oliveira Santos [verfasserIn] Paulo Alexandre Costa Rocha [verfasserIn] John Scott [verfasserIn] Jesse Van Griensven Thé [verfasserIn] Bahram Gharabaghi [verfasserIn] |
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E-Artikel |
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Sprache: |
Englisch |
Erschienen: |
2023 |
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Übergeordnetes Werk: |
In: Water - MDPI AG, 2010, 15(2023), 10, p 1827 |
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Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:15 ; year:2023 ; number:10, p 1827 |
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DOI / URN: |
10.3390/w15101827 |
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Katalog-ID: |
DOAJ094292493 |
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10.3390/w15101827 doi (DE-627)DOAJ094292493 (DE-599)DOAJbdee6b9d73c548598f781368421a5e6e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng TC1-978 TD201-500 Victor Oliveira Santos verfasserin aut A New Graph-Based Deep Learning Model to Predict Flooding with Validation on a Case Study on the Humber River 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Floods are one of the most lethal natural disasters. It is crucial to forecast the timing and evolution of these events and create an advanced warning system to allow for the proper implementation of preventive measures. This work introduced a new graph-based forecasting model, namely, graph neural network sample and aggregate (GNN-SAGE), to estimate river flooding. It then validated the proposed model in the Humber River watershed in Ontario, Canada. Using past precipitation and stage data from reference and neighboring stations, the proposed GNN-SAGE model could estimate the river stage for flooding events up to 24 h ahead, improving its forecasting performance by an average of 18% compared with the persistence model and 9% compared with the graph-based model residual gated graph convolutional network (GNN-ResGated), which were used as baselines. Furthermore, GNN-SAGE generated smaller errors than those reported in the current literature. The Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) revealed that prior data from the reference station was the most significant factor for all prediction intervals, with seasonality and precipitation being more influential for longer-range forecasts. The findings positioned the proposed GNN-SAGE model as a cutting-edge solution for flood forecasting and a valuable resource for devising early flood-warning systems. flooding Humber River forecasting machine learning graph neural networks SHAP analysis Hydraulic engineering Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes Paulo Alexandre Costa Rocha verfasserin aut John Scott verfasserin aut Jesse Van Griensven Thé verfasserin aut Bahram Gharabaghi verfasserin aut In Water MDPI AG, 2010 15(2023), 10, p 1827 (DE-627)611729008 (DE-600)2521238-2 20734441 nnns volume:15 year:2023 number:10, p 1827 https://doi.org/10.3390/w15101827 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/bdee6b9d73c548598f781368421a5e6e kostenfrei https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/15/10/1827 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4441 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 15 2023 10, p 1827 |
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10.3390/w15101827 doi (DE-627)DOAJ094292493 (DE-599)DOAJbdee6b9d73c548598f781368421a5e6e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng TC1-978 TD201-500 Victor Oliveira Santos verfasserin aut A New Graph-Based Deep Learning Model to Predict Flooding with Validation on a Case Study on the Humber River 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Floods are one of the most lethal natural disasters. It is crucial to forecast the timing and evolution of these events and create an advanced warning system to allow for the proper implementation of preventive measures. This work introduced a new graph-based forecasting model, namely, graph neural network sample and aggregate (GNN-SAGE), to estimate river flooding. It then validated the proposed model in the Humber River watershed in Ontario, Canada. Using past precipitation and stage data from reference and neighboring stations, the proposed GNN-SAGE model could estimate the river stage for flooding events up to 24 h ahead, improving its forecasting performance by an average of 18% compared with the persistence model and 9% compared with the graph-based model residual gated graph convolutional network (GNN-ResGated), which were used as baselines. Furthermore, GNN-SAGE generated smaller errors than those reported in the current literature. The Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) revealed that prior data from the reference station was the most significant factor for all prediction intervals, with seasonality and precipitation being more influential for longer-range forecasts. The findings positioned the proposed GNN-SAGE model as a cutting-edge solution for flood forecasting and a valuable resource for devising early flood-warning systems. flooding Humber River forecasting machine learning graph neural networks SHAP analysis Hydraulic engineering Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes Paulo Alexandre Costa Rocha verfasserin aut John Scott verfasserin aut Jesse Van Griensven Thé verfasserin aut Bahram Gharabaghi verfasserin aut In Water MDPI AG, 2010 15(2023), 10, p 1827 (DE-627)611729008 (DE-600)2521238-2 20734441 nnns volume:15 year:2023 number:10, p 1827 https://doi.org/10.3390/w15101827 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/bdee6b9d73c548598f781368421a5e6e kostenfrei https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/15/10/1827 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4441 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 15 2023 10, p 1827 |
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10.3390/w15101827 doi (DE-627)DOAJ094292493 (DE-599)DOAJbdee6b9d73c548598f781368421a5e6e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng TC1-978 TD201-500 Victor Oliveira Santos verfasserin aut A New Graph-Based Deep Learning Model to Predict Flooding with Validation on a Case Study on the Humber River 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Floods are one of the most lethal natural disasters. It is crucial to forecast the timing and evolution of these events and create an advanced warning system to allow for the proper implementation of preventive measures. This work introduced a new graph-based forecasting model, namely, graph neural network sample and aggregate (GNN-SAGE), to estimate river flooding. It then validated the proposed model in the Humber River watershed in Ontario, Canada. Using past precipitation and stage data from reference and neighboring stations, the proposed GNN-SAGE model could estimate the river stage for flooding events up to 24 h ahead, improving its forecasting performance by an average of 18% compared with the persistence model and 9% compared with the graph-based model residual gated graph convolutional network (GNN-ResGated), which were used as baselines. Furthermore, GNN-SAGE generated smaller errors than those reported in the current literature. The Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) revealed that prior data from the reference station was the most significant factor for all prediction intervals, with seasonality and precipitation being more influential for longer-range forecasts. The findings positioned the proposed GNN-SAGE model as a cutting-edge solution for flood forecasting and a valuable resource for devising early flood-warning systems. flooding Humber River forecasting machine learning graph neural networks SHAP analysis Hydraulic engineering Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes Paulo Alexandre Costa Rocha verfasserin aut John Scott verfasserin aut Jesse Van Griensven Thé verfasserin aut Bahram Gharabaghi verfasserin aut In Water MDPI AG, 2010 15(2023), 10, p 1827 (DE-627)611729008 (DE-600)2521238-2 20734441 nnns volume:15 year:2023 number:10, p 1827 https://doi.org/10.3390/w15101827 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/bdee6b9d73c548598f781368421a5e6e kostenfrei https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/15/10/1827 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4441 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 15 2023 10, p 1827 |
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Victor Oliveira Santos misc TC1-978 misc TD201-500 misc flooding misc Humber River misc forecasting misc machine learning misc graph neural networks misc SHAP analysis misc Hydraulic engineering misc Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes A New Graph-Based Deep Learning Model to Predict Flooding with Validation on a Case Study on the Humber River |
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A New Graph-Based Deep Learning Model to Predict Flooding with Validation on a Case Study on the Humber River |
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Floods are one of the most lethal natural disasters. It is crucial to forecast the timing and evolution of these events and create an advanced warning system to allow for the proper implementation of preventive measures. This work introduced a new graph-based forecasting model, namely, graph neural network sample and aggregate (GNN-SAGE), to estimate river flooding. It then validated the proposed model in the Humber River watershed in Ontario, Canada. Using past precipitation and stage data from reference and neighboring stations, the proposed GNN-SAGE model could estimate the river stage for flooding events up to 24 h ahead, improving its forecasting performance by an average of 18% compared with the persistence model and 9% compared with the graph-based model residual gated graph convolutional network (GNN-ResGated), which were used as baselines. Furthermore, GNN-SAGE generated smaller errors than those reported in the current literature. The Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) revealed that prior data from the reference station was the most significant factor for all prediction intervals, with seasonality and precipitation being more influential for longer-range forecasts. The findings positioned the proposed GNN-SAGE model as a cutting-edge solution for flood forecasting and a valuable resource for devising early flood-warning systems. |
abstractGer |
Floods are one of the most lethal natural disasters. It is crucial to forecast the timing and evolution of these events and create an advanced warning system to allow for the proper implementation of preventive measures. This work introduced a new graph-based forecasting model, namely, graph neural network sample and aggregate (GNN-SAGE), to estimate river flooding. It then validated the proposed model in the Humber River watershed in Ontario, Canada. Using past precipitation and stage data from reference and neighboring stations, the proposed GNN-SAGE model could estimate the river stage for flooding events up to 24 h ahead, improving its forecasting performance by an average of 18% compared with the persistence model and 9% compared with the graph-based model residual gated graph convolutional network (GNN-ResGated), which were used as baselines. Furthermore, GNN-SAGE generated smaller errors than those reported in the current literature. The Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) revealed that prior data from the reference station was the most significant factor for all prediction intervals, with seasonality and precipitation being more influential for longer-range forecasts. The findings positioned the proposed GNN-SAGE model as a cutting-edge solution for flood forecasting and a valuable resource for devising early flood-warning systems. |
abstract_unstemmed |
Floods are one of the most lethal natural disasters. It is crucial to forecast the timing and evolution of these events and create an advanced warning system to allow for the proper implementation of preventive measures. This work introduced a new graph-based forecasting model, namely, graph neural network sample and aggregate (GNN-SAGE), to estimate river flooding. It then validated the proposed model in the Humber River watershed in Ontario, Canada. Using past precipitation and stage data from reference and neighboring stations, the proposed GNN-SAGE model could estimate the river stage for flooding events up to 24 h ahead, improving its forecasting performance by an average of 18% compared with the persistence model and 9% compared with the graph-based model residual gated graph convolutional network (GNN-ResGated), which were used as baselines. Furthermore, GNN-SAGE generated smaller errors than those reported in the current literature. The Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) revealed that prior data from the reference station was the most significant factor for all prediction intervals, with seasonality and precipitation being more influential for longer-range forecasts. The findings positioned the proposed GNN-SAGE model as a cutting-edge solution for flood forecasting and a valuable resource for devising early flood-warning systems. |
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