Spatially interactive modeling of land change identifies location-specific adaptations most likely to lower future flood risk

Abstract Impacts of sea level rise will last for centuries; therefore, flood risk modeling must transition from identifying risky locations to assessing how populations can best cope. We present the first spatially interactive (i.e., what happens at one location affects another) land change model (F...
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Autor*in:	Georgina M. Sanchez [verfasserIn] Anna Petrasova [verfasserIn] Megan M. Skrip [verfasserIn] Elyssa L. Collins [verfasserIn] Margaret A. Lawrimore [verfasserIn] John B. Vogler [verfasserIn] Adam Terando [verfasserIn] Jelena Vukomanovic [verfasserIn] Helena Mitasova [verfasserIn] Ross K. Meentemeyer [verfasserIn]

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2023

Übergeordnetes Werk:	In: Scientific Reports - Nature Portfolio, 2011, 13(2023), 1, Seite 15
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:13 ; year:2023 ; number:1 ; pages:15

Links:	Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Journal toc

DOI / URN:	10.1038/s41598-023-46195-9

Katalog-ID:	DOAJ095338292

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author	Georgina M. Sanchez
spellingShingle	Georgina M. Sanchez misc Medicine misc R misc Science misc Q Spatially interactive modeling of land change identifies location-specific adaptations most likely to lower future flood risk
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title	Spatially interactive modeling of land change identifies location-specific adaptations most likely to lower future flood risk
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title_sort	spatially interactive modeling of land change identifies location-specific adaptations most likely to lower future flood risk
title_auth	Spatially interactive modeling of land change identifies location-specific adaptations most likely to lower future flood risk
abstract	Abstract Impacts of sea level rise will last for centuries; therefore, flood risk modeling must transition from identifying risky locations to assessing how populations can best cope. We present the first spatially interactive (i.e., what happens at one location affects another) land change model (FUTURES 3.0) that can probabilistically predict urban growth while simulating human migration and other responses to flooding, essentially depicting the geography of impact and response. Accounting for human migration reduced total amounts of projected developed land exposed to flooding by 2050 by 5%–24%, depending on flood hazard zone (50%–0.2% annual probability). We simulated various “what-if” scenarios and found managed retreat to be the only intervention with predicted exposure below baseline conditions. In the business-as-usual scenario, existing and future development must be either protected or abandoned to cope with future flooding. Our open framework can be applied to different regions and advances local to regional-scale efforts to evaluate potential risks and tradeoffs.
abstractGer	Abstract Impacts of sea level rise will last for centuries; therefore, flood risk modeling must transition from identifying risky locations to assessing how populations can best cope. We present the first spatially interactive (i.e., what happens at one location affects another) land change model (FUTURES 3.0) that can probabilistically predict urban growth while simulating human migration and other responses to flooding, essentially depicting the geography of impact and response. Accounting for human migration reduced total amounts of projected developed land exposed to flooding by 2050 by 5%–24%, depending on flood hazard zone (50%–0.2% annual probability). We simulated various “what-if” scenarios and found managed retreat to be the only intervention with predicted exposure below baseline conditions. In the business-as-usual scenario, existing and future development must be either protected or abandoned to cope with future flooding. Our open framework can be applied to different regions and advances local to regional-scale efforts to evaluate potential risks and tradeoffs.
abstract_unstemmed	Abstract Impacts of sea level rise will last for centuries; therefore, flood risk modeling must transition from identifying risky locations to assessing how populations can best cope. We present the first spatially interactive (i.e., what happens at one location affects another) land change model (FUTURES 3.0) that can probabilistically predict urban growth while simulating human migration and other responses to flooding, essentially depicting the geography of impact and response. Accounting for human migration reduced total amounts of projected developed land exposed to flooding by 2050 by 5%–24%, depending on flood hazard zone (50%–0.2% annual probability). We simulated various “what-if” scenarios and found managed retreat to be the only intervention with predicted exposure below baseline conditions. In the business-as-usual scenario, existing and future development must be either protected or abandoned to cope with future flooding. Our open framework can be applied to different regions and advances local to regional-scale efforts to evaluate potential risks and tradeoffs.
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title_short	Spatially interactive modeling of land change identifies location-specific adaptations most likely to lower future flood risk
url	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-46195-9 https://doaj.org/article/1f395a3bbef547a98efe737db4e11abe https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322
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Spatially interactive modeling of land change identifies location-specific adaptations most likely to lower future flood risk

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