On the assessment of the wave modeling uncertainty in wave climate projections

This study investigates the epistemic uncertainty associated with the wave propagation modeling in wave climate projections. A single-forcing, single-scenario, seven-member global wave climate projection ensemble is used, developed using three wave models with a consistent numerical domain. The unce...
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Gespeichert in:

Autor*in:	Hector Lobeto [verfasserIn] Alvaro Semedo [verfasserIn] Melisa Menendez [verfasserIn] Gil Lemos [verfasserIn] Rajesh Kumar [verfasserIn] Adem Akpinar [verfasserIn] Mikhail Dobrynin [verfasserIn] Bahareh Kamranzad [verfasserIn]

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2023

Schlagwörter:	wave climate climate change uncertainty wave modeling

Übergeordnetes Werk:	In: Environmental Research Letters - IOP Publishing, 2007, 18(2023), 12, p 124006
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:18 ; year:2023 ; number:12, p 124006

Links:	Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Journal toc

DOI / URN:	10.1088/1748-9326/ad0137

Katalog-ID:	DOAJ096946288

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spelling	10.1088/1748-9326/ad0137 doi (DE-627)DOAJ096946288 (DE-599)DOAJ71cb86800e194f6bb437bebbf0371255 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng TD1-1066 GE1-350 QC1-999 Hector Lobeto verfasserin aut On the assessment of the wave modeling uncertainty in wave climate projections 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier This study investigates the epistemic uncertainty associated with the wave propagation modeling in wave climate projections. A single-forcing, single-scenario, seven-member global wave climate projection ensemble is used, developed using three wave models with a consistent numerical domain. The uncertainty is assessed through projected changes in wave height, wave period, and wave direction. The relative importance of the wave model used and its internal parameterization are examined. The former is the dominant source of uncertainty in approximately two-thirds of the global ocean. The study reveals divergences in projected changes from runs of different models and runs of the same model with different parameterizations over 75% of the ensemble mean change in several ocean regions. Projected changes in the wave period shows the most significant uncertainties, particularly in the Pacific Ocean basin, while the wave height shows the least. Over 30% of global coastlines exhibit significant uncertainties in at least two out of the three wave climate variables analyzed. The coasts of western North America, the Maritime Continent and the Arabian Sea show the most significant wave modeling uncertainties. wave climate climate change uncertainty wave modeling Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering Environmental sciences Science Q Physics Alvaro Semedo verfasserin aut Melisa Menendez verfasserin aut Gil Lemos verfasserin aut Rajesh Kumar verfasserin aut Adem Akpinar verfasserin aut Mikhail Dobrynin verfasserin aut Bahareh Kamranzad verfasserin aut In Environmental Research Letters IOP Publishing, 2007 18(2023), 12, p 124006 (DE-627)519203569 (DE-600)2255379-4 17489326 nnns volume:18 year:2023 number:12, p 124006 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad0137 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/71cb86800e194f6bb437bebbf0371255 kostenfrei https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad0137 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_235 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_374 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2884 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 18 2023 12, p 124006
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allfieldsGer	10.1088/1748-9326/ad0137 doi (DE-627)DOAJ096946288 (DE-599)DOAJ71cb86800e194f6bb437bebbf0371255 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng TD1-1066 GE1-350 QC1-999 Hector Lobeto verfasserin aut On the assessment of the wave modeling uncertainty in wave climate projections 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier This study investigates the epistemic uncertainty associated with the wave propagation modeling in wave climate projections. A single-forcing, single-scenario, seven-member global wave climate projection ensemble is used, developed using three wave models with a consistent numerical domain. The uncertainty is assessed through projected changes in wave height, wave period, and wave direction. The relative importance of the wave model used and its internal parameterization are examined. The former is the dominant source of uncertainty in approximately two-thirds of the global ocean. The study reveals divergences in projected changes from runs of different models and runs of the same model with different parameterizations over 75% of the ensemble mean change in several ocean regions. Projected changes in the wave period shows the most significant uncertainties, particularly in the Pacific Ocean basin, while the wave height shows the least. Over 30% of global coastlines exhibit significant uncertainties in at least two out of the three wave climate variables analyzed. The coasts of western North America, the Maritime Continent and the Arabian Sea show the most significant wave modeling uncertainties. wave climate climate change uncertainty wave modeling Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering Environmental sciences Science Q Physics Alvaro Semedo verfasserin aut Melisa Menendez verfasserin aut Gil Lemos verfasserin aut Rajesh Kumar verfasserin aut Adem Akpinar verfasserin aut Mikhail Dobrynin verfasserin aut Bahareh Kamranzad verfasserin aut In Environmental Research Letters IOP Publishing, 2007 18(2023), 12, p 124006 (DE-627)519203569 (DE-600)2255379-4 17489326 nnns volume:18 year:2023 number:12, p 124006 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad0137 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/71cb86800e194f6bb437bebbf0371255 kostenfrei https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad0137 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_235 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_374 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2884 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 18 2023 12, p 124006
allfieldsSound	10.1088/1748-9326/ad0137 doi (DE-627)DOAJ096946288 (DE-599)DOAJ71cb86800e194f6bb437bebbf0371255 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng TD1-1066 GE1-350 QC1-999 Hector Lobeto verfasserin aut On the assessment of the wave modeling uncertainty in wave climate projections 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier This study investigates the epistemic uncertainty associated with the wave propagation modeling in wave climate projections. A single-forcing, single-scenario, seven-member global wave climate projection ensemble is used, developed using three wave models with a consistent numerical domain. The uncertainty is assessed through projected changes in wave height, wave period, and wave direction. The relative importance of the wave model used and its internal parameterization are examined. The former is the dominant source of uncertainty in approximately two-thirds of the global ocean. The study reveals divergences in projected changes from runs of different models and runs of the same model with different parameterizations over 75% of the ensemble mean change in several ocean regions. Projected changes in the wave period shows the most significant uncertainties, particularly in the Pacific Ocean basin, while the wave height shows the least. Over 30% of global coastlines exhibit significant uncertainties in at least two out of the three wave climate variables analyzed. The coasts of western North America, the Maritime Continent and the Arabian Sea show the most significant wave modeling uncertainties. wave climate climate change uncertainty wave modeling Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering Environmental sciences Science Q Physics Alvaro Semedo verfasserin aut Melisa Menendez verfasserin aut Gil Lemos verfasserin aut Rajesh Kumar verfasserin aut Adem Akpinar verfasserin aut Mikhail Dobrynin verfasserin aut Bahareh Kamranzad verfasserin aut In Environmental Research Letters IOP Publishing, 2007 18(2023), 12, p 124006 (DE-627)519203569 (DE-600)2255379-4 17489326 nnns volume:18 year:2023 number:12, p 124006 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad0137 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/71cb86800e194f6bb437bebbf0371255 kostenfrei https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad0137 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_235 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_374 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2884 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 18 2023 12, p 124006
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source	In Environmental Research Letters 18(2023), 12, p 124006 volume:18 year:2023 number:12, p 124006
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callnumber-first	T - Technology
author	Hector Lobeto
spellingShingle	Hector Lobeto misc TD1-1066 misc GE1-350 misc QC1-999 misc wave climate misc climate change misc uncertainty misc wave modeling misc Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering misc Environmental sciences misc Science misc Q misc Physics On the assessment of the wave modeling uncertainty in wave climate projections
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title	On the assessment of the wave modeling uncertainty in wave climate projections
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title_full	On the assessment of the wave modeling uncertainty in wave climate projections
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title_sort	on the assessment of the wave modeling uncertainty in wave climate projections
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title_auth	On the assessment of the wave modeling uncertainty in wave climate projections
abstract	This study investigates the epistemic uncertainty associated with the wave propagation modeling in wave climate projections. A single-forcing, single-scenario, seven-member global wave climate projection ensemble is used, developed using three wave models with a consistent numerical domain. The uncertainty is assessed through projected changes in wave height, wave period, and wave direction. The relative importance of the wave model used and its internal parameterization are examined. The former is the dominant source of uncertainty in approximately two-thirds of the global ocean. The study reveals divergences in projected changes from runs of different models and runs of the same model with different parameterizations over 75% of the ensemble mean change in several ocean regions. Projected changes in the wave period shows the most significant uncertainties, particularly in the Pacific Ocean basin, while the wave height shows the least. Over 30% of global coastlines exhibit significant uncertainties in at least two out of the three wave climate variables analyzed. The coasts of western North America, the Maritime Continent and the Arabian Sea show the most significant wave modeling uncertainties.
abstractGer	This study investigates the epistemic uncertainty associated with the wave propagation modeling in wave climate projections. A single-forcing, single-scenario, seven-member global wave climate projection ensemble is used, developed using three wave models with a consistent numerical domain. The uncertainty is assessed through projected changes in wave height, wave period, and wave direction. The relative importance of the wave model used and its internal parameterization are examined. The former is the dominant source of uncertainty in approximately two-thirds of the global ocean. The study reveals divergences in projected changes from runs of different models and runs of the same model with different parameterizations over 75% of the ensemble mean change in several ocean regions. Projected changes in the wave period shows the most significant uncertainties, particularly in the Pacific Ocean basin, while the wave height shows the least. Over 30% of global coastlines exhibit significant uncertainties in at least two out of the three wave climate variables analyzed. The coasts of western North America, the Maritime Continent and the Arabian Sea show the most significant wave modeling uncertainties.
abstract_unstemmed	This study investigates the epistemic uncertainty associated with the wave propagation modeling in wave climate projections. A single-forcing, single-scenario, seven-member global wave climate projection ensemble is used, developed using three wave models with a consistent numerical domain. The uncertainty is assessed through projected changes in wave height, wave period, and wave direction. The relative importance of the wave model used and its internal parameterization are examined. The former is the dominant source of uncertainty in approximately two-thirds of the global ocean. The study reveals divergences in projected changes from runs of different models and runs of the same model with different parameterizations over 75% of the ensemble mean change in several ocean regions. Projected changes in the wave period shows the most significant uncertainties, particularly in the Pacific Ocean basin, while the wave height shows the least. Over 30% of global coastlines exhibit significant uncertainties in at least two out of the three wave climate variables analyzed. The coasts of western North America, the Maritime Continent and the Arabian Sea show the most significant wave modeling uncertainties.
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title_short	On the assessment of the wave modeling uncertainty in wave climate projections
url	https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad0137 https://doaj.org/article/71cb86800e194f6bb437bebbf0371255 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326
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up_date	2024-07-03T23:04:33.802Z
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A single-forcing, single-scenario, seven-member global wave climate projection ensemble is used, developed using three wave models with a consistent numerical domain. The uncertainty is assessed through projected changes in wave height, wave period, and wave direction. The relative importance of the wave model used and its internal parameterization are examined. The former is the dominant source of uncertainty in approximately two-thirds of the global ocean. The study reveals divergences in projected changes from runs of different models and runs of the same model with different parameterizations over 75% of the ensemble mean change in several ocean regions. Projected changes in the wave period shows the most significant uncertainties, particularly in the Pacific Ocean basin, while the wave height shows the least. Over 30% of global coastlines exhibit significant uncertainties in at least two out of the three wave climate variables analyzed. 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Sanitary engineering</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Environmental sciences</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Science</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Q</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Physics</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Alvaro Semedo</subfield><subfield code="e">verfasserin</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Melisa Menendez</subfield><subfield code="e">verfasserin</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Gil Lemos</subfield><subfield code="e">verfasserin</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Rajesh Kumar</subfield><subfield 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On the assessment of the wave modeling uncertainty in wave climate projections

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