“Low-risk groups” deserve more attention than “high-risk groups” in imported COVID-19 cases

ObjectiveTo estimate the optimal quarantine period for inbound travelers and identify key risk factors to provide scientific reference for emerging infectious diseases.MethodsA parametric survival analysis model was used to calculate the time interval between entry and first positive nucleic acid te...
Ausführliche Beschreibung

Gespeichert in:

Autor*in:	Wanshan Zheng [verfasserIn] Ying Tan [verfasserIn] Zedi Zhao [verfasserIn] Jin Chen [verfasserIn] Xiaomei Dong [verfasserIn] Xiongfei Chen [verfasserIn]

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2023

Schlagwörter:	COVID-19 imported case quarantine period time interval risk factor

Übergeordnetes Werk:	In: Frontiers in Medicine - Frontiers Media S.A., 2014, 10(2023)
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:10 ; year:2023

Links:	Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Journal toc

DOI / URN:	10.3389/fmed.2023.1293747

Katalog-ID:	DOAJ100933513

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520			\|a ObjectiveTo estimate the optimal quarantine period for inbound travelers and identify key risk factors to provide scientific reference for emerging infectious diseases.MethodsA parametric survival analysis model was used to calculate the time interval between entry and first positive nucleic acid test of imported cases in Guangzhou, to identify the influencing factors. And the COVID-19 epidemic risk prediction model based on multiple risk factors among inbound travelers was constructed.ResultsThe approximate 95th percentile of the time interval was 14 days. Multivariate analysis found that the mean time interval for inbound travelers in entry/exit high-risk occupations was 29% shorter (OR 0.29, 95% CI 0.18–0.46, p < 0.0001) than that of low-risk occupations, those from Africa were 37% shorter (OR 0.37, 95% CI 0.17–0.78, p = 0.01) than those from Asia, those who were fully vaccinated were 1.88 times higher (OR 1.88, 95% CI 1.13–3.12, p = 0.01) than that of those who were unvaccinated, and those in other VOC periods were lower than in the Delta period. Decision tree analysis showed that a combined entry/exit low-risk occupation group with Delta period could create a high indigenous epidemic risk by 0.24.ConclusionDifferent strata of imported cases can result in varying degrees of risk of indigenous outbreaks. “low-risk groups” with entry/exit low-risk occupations, fully vaccinated, or from Asia deserve more attention than “high-risk groups.”
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allfields	10.3389/fmed.2023.1293747 doi (DE-627)DOAJ100933513 (DE-599)DOAJc285261105c64966946daf095823f52f DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng R5-920 Wanshan Zheng verfasserin aut “Low-risk groups” deserve more attention than “high-risk groups” in imported COVID-19 cases 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier ObjectiveTo estimate the optimal quarantine period for inbound travelers and identify key risk factors to provide scientific reference for emerging infectious diseases.MethodsA parametric survival analysis model was used to calculate the time interval between entry and first positive nucleic acid test of imported cases in Guangzhou, to identify the influencing factors. And the COVID-19 epidemic risk prediction model based on multiple risk factors among inbound travelers was constructed.ResultsThe approximate 95th percentile of the time interval was 14 days. Multivariate analysis found that the mean time interval for inbound travelers in entry/exit high-risk occupations was 29% shorter (OR 0.29, 95% CI 0.18–0.46, p < 0.0001) than that of low-risk occupations, those from Africa were 37% shorter (OR 0.37, 95% CI 0.17–0.78, p = 0.01) than those from Asia, those who were fully vaccinated were 1.88 times higher (OR 1.88, 95% CI 1.13–3.12, p = 0.01) than that of those who were unvaccinated, and those in other VOC periods were lower than in the Delta period. Decision tree analysis showed that a combined entry/exit low-risk occupation group with Delta period could create a high indigenous epidemic risk by 0.24.ConclusionDifferent strata of imported cases can result in varying degrees of risk of indigenous outbreaks. “low-risk groups” with entry/exit low-risk occupations, fully vaccinated, or from Asia deserve more attention than “high-risk groups.” COVID-19 imported case quarantine period time interval risk factor Medicine (General) Ying Tan verfasserin aut Zedi Zhao verfasserin aut Jin Chen verfasserin aut Xiaomei Dong verfasserin aut Xiongfei Chen verfasserin aut In Frontiers in Medicine Frontiers Media S.A., 2014 10(2023) (DE-627)789482991 (DE-600)2775999-4 2296858X nnns volume:10 year:2023 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2023.1293747 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/c285261105c64966946daf095823f52f kostenfrei https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2023.1293747/full kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2296-858X Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 10 2023
spelling	10.3389/fmed.2023.1293747 doi (DE-627)DOAJ100933513 (DE-599)DOAJc285261105c64966946daf095823f52f DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng R5-920 Wanshan Zheng verfasserin aut “Low-risk groups” deserve more attention than “high-risk groups” in imported COVID-19 cases 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier ObjectiveTo estimate the optimal quarantine period for inbound travelers and identify key risk factors to provide scientific reference for emerging infectious diseases.MethodsA parametric survival analysis model was used to calculate the time interval between entry and first positive nucleic acid test of imported cases in Guangzhou, to identify the influencing factors. And the COVID-19 epidemic risk prediction model based on multiple risk factors among inbound travelers was constructed.ResultsThe approximate 95th percentile of the time interval was 14 days. Multivariate analysis found that the mean time interval for inbound travelers in entry/exit high-risk occupations was 29% shorter (OR 0.29, 95% CI 0.18–0.46, p < 0.0001) than that of low-risk occupations, those from Africa were 37% shorter (OR 0.37, 95% CI 0.17–0.78, p = 0.01) than those from Asia, those who were fully vaccinated were 1.88 times higher (OR 1.88, 95% CI 1.13–3.12, p = 0.01) than that of those who were unvaccinated, and those in other VOC periods were lower than in the Delta period. Decision tree analysis showed that a combined entry/exit low-risk occupation group with Delta period could create a high indigenous epidemic risk by 0.24.ConclusionDifferent strata of imported cases can result in varying degrees of risk of indigenous outbreaks. “low-risk groups” with entry/exit low-risk occupations, fully vaccinated, or from Asia deserve more attention than “high-risk groups.” COVID-19 imported case quarantine period time interval risk factor Medicine (General) Ying Tan verfasserin aut Zedi Zhao verfasserin aut Jin Chen verfasserin aut Xiaomei Dong verfasserin aut Xiongfei Chen verfasserin aut In Frontiers in Medicine Frontiers Media S.A., 2014 10(2023) (DE-627)789482991 (DE-600)2775999-4 2296858X nnns volume:10 year:2023 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2023.1293747 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/c285261105c64966946daf095823f52f kostenfrei https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2023.1293747/full kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2296-858X Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 10 2023
allfields_unstemmed	10.3389/fmed.2023.1293747 doi (DE-627)DOAJ100933513 (DE-599)DOAJc285261105c64966946daf095823f52f DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng R5-920 Wanshan Zheng verfasserin aut “Low-risk groups” deserve more attention than “high-risk groups” in imported COVID-19 cases 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier ObjectiveTo estimate the optimal quarantine period for inbound travelers and identify key risk factors to provide scientific reference for emerging infectious diseases.MethodsA parametric survival analysis model was used to calculate the time interval between entry and first positive nucleic acid test of imported cases in Guangzhou, to identify the influencing factors. And the COVID-19 epidemic risk prediction model based on multiple risk factors among inbound travelers was constructed.ResultsThe approximate 95th percentile of the time interval was 14 days. Multivariate analysis found that the mean time interval for inbound travelers in entry/exit high-risk occupations was 29% shorter (OR 0.29, 95% CI 0.18–0.46, p < 0.0001) than that of low-risk occupations, those from Africa were 37% shorter (OR 0.37, 95% CI 0.17–0.78, p = 0.01) than those from Asia, those who were fully vaccinated were 1.88 times higher (OR 1.88, 95% CI 1.13–3.12, p = 0.01) than that of those who were unvaccinated, and those in other VOC periods were lower than in the Delta period. Decision tree analysis showed that a combined entry/exit low-risk occupation group with Delta period could create a high indigenous epidemic risk by 0.24.ConclusionDifferent strata of imported cases can result in varying degrees of risk of indigenous outbreaks. “low-risk groups” with entry/exit low-risk occupations, fully vaccinated, or from Asia deserve more attention than “high-risk groups.” COVID-19 imported case quarantine period time interval risk factor Medicine (General) Ying Tan verfasserin aut Zedi Zhao verfasserin aut Jin Chen verfasserin aut Xiaomei Dong verfasserin aut Xiongfei Chen verfasserin aut In Frontiers in Medicine Frontiers Media S.A., 2014 10(2023) (DE-627)789482991 (DE-600)2775999-4 2296858X nnns volume:10 year:2023 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2023.1293747 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/c285261105c64966946daf095823f52f kostenfrei https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2023.1293747/full kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2296-858X Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 10 2023
allfieldsGer	10.3389/fmed.2023.1293747 doi (DE-627)DOAJ100933513 (DE-599)DOAJc285261105c64966946daf095823f52f DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng R5-920 Wanshan Zheng verfasserin aut “Low-risk groups” deserve more attention than “high-risk groups” in imported COVID-19 cases 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier ObjectiveTo estimate the optimal quarantine period for inbound travelers and identify key risk factors to provide scientific reference for emerging infectious diseases.MethodsA parametric survival analysis model was used to calculate the time interval between entry and first positive nucleic acid test of imported cases in Guangzhou, to identify the influencing factors. And the COVID-19 epidemic risk prediction model based on multiple risk factors among inbound travelers was constructed.ResultsThe approximate 95th percentile of the time interval was 14 days. Multivariate analysis found that the mean time interval for inbound travelers in entry/exit high-risk occupations was 29% shorter (OR 0.29, 95% CI 0.18–0.46, p < 0.0001) than that of low-risk occupations, those from Africa were 37% shorter (OR 0.37, 95% CI 0.17–0.78, p = 0.01) than those from Asia, those who were fully vaccinated were 1.88 times higher (OR 1.88, 95% CI 1.13–3.12, p = 0.01) than that of those who were unvaccinated, and those in other VOC periods were lower than in the Delta period. Decision tree analysis showed that a combined entry/exit low-risk occupation group with Delta period could create a high indigenous epidemic risk by 0.24.ConclusionDifferent strata of imported cases can result in varying degrees of risk of indigenous outbreaks. “low-risk groups” with entry/exit low-risk occupations, fully vaccinated, or from Asia deserve more attention than “high-risk groups.” COVID-19 imported case quarantine period time interval risk factor Medicine (General) Ying Tan verfasserin aut Zedi Zhao verfasserin aut Jin Chen verfasserin aut Xiaomei Dong verfasserin aut Xiongfei Chen verfasserin aut In Frontiers in Medicine Frontiers Media S.A., 2014 10(2023) (DE-627)789482991 (DE-600)2775999-4 2296858X nnns volume:10 year:2023 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2023.1293747 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/c285261105c64966946daf095823f52f kostenfrei https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2023.1293747/full kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2296-858X Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 10 2023
allfieldsSound	10.3389/fmed.2023.1293747 doi (DE-627)DOAJ100933513 (DE-599)DOAJc285261105c64966946daf095823f52f DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng R5-920 Wanshan Zheng verfasserin aut “Low-risk groups” deserve more attention than “high-risk groups” in imported COVID-19 cases 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier ObjectiveTo estimate the optimal quarantine period for inbound travelers and identify key risk factors to provide scientific reference for emerging infectious diseases.MethodsA parametric survival analysis model was used to calculate the time interval between entry and first positive nucleic acid test of imported cases in Guangzhou, to identify the influencing factors. And the COVID-19 epidemic risk prediction model based on multiple risk factors among inbound travelers was constructed.ResultsThe approximate 95th percentile of the time interval was 14 days. Multivariate analysis found that the mean time interval for inbound travelers in entry/exit high-risk occupations was 29% shorter (OR 0.29, 95% CI 0.18–0.46, p < 0.0001) than that of low-risk occupations, those from Africa were 37% shorter (OR 0.37, 95% CI 0.17–0.78, p = 0.01) than those from Asia, those who were fully vaccinated were 1.88 times higher (OR 1.88, 95% CI 1.13–3.12, p = 0.01) than that of those who were unvaccinated, and those in other VOC periods were lower than in the Delta period. Decision tree analysis showed that a combined entry/exit low-risk occupation group with Delta period could create a high indigenous epidemic risk by 0.24.ConclusionDifferent strata of imported cases can result in varying degrees of risk of indigenous outbreaks. “low-risk groups” with entry/exit low-risk occupations, fully vaccinated, or from Asia deserve more attention than “high-risk groups.” COVID-19 imported case quarantine period time interval risk factor Medicine (General) Ying Tan verfasserin aut Zedi Zhao verfasserin aut Jin Chen verfasserin aut Xiaomei Dong verfasserin aut Xiongfei Chen verfasserin aut In Frontiers in Medicine Frontiers Media S.A., 2014 10(2023) (DE-627)789482991 (DE-600)2775999-4 2296858X nnns volume:10 year:2023 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2023.1293747 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/c285261105c64966946daf095823f52f kostenfrei https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2023.1293747/full kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2296-858X Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 10 2023
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authorswithroles_txt_mv	Wanshan Zheng @@aut@@ Ying Tan @@aut@@ Zedi Zhao @@aut@@ Jin Chen @@aut@@ Xiaomei Dong @@aut@@ Xiongfei Chen @@aut@@
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And the COVID-19 epidemic risk prediction model based on multiple risk factors among inbound travelers was constructed.ResultsThe approximate 95th percentile of the time interval was 14 days. Multivariate analysis found that the mean time interval for inbound travelers in entry/exit high-risk occupations was 29% shorter (OR 0.29, 95% CI 0.18–0.46, p &lt; 0.0001) than that of low-risk occupations, those from Africa were 37% shorter (OR 0.37, 95% CI 0.17–0.78, p = 0.01) than those from Asia, those who were fully vaccinated were 1.88 times higher (OR 1.88, 95% CI 1.13–3.12, p = 0.01) than that of those who were unvaccinated, and those in other VOC periods were lower than in the Delta period. Decision tree analysis showed that a combined entry/exit low-risk occupation group with Delta period could create a high indigenous epidemic risk by 0.24.ConclusionDifferent strata of imported cases can result in varying degrees of risk of indigenous outbreaks. “low-risk groups” with entry/exit low-risk occupations, fully vaccinated, or from Asia deserve more attention than “high-risk groups.”</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">COVID-19</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">imported case</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">quarantine period</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">time interval</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">risk factor</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Medicine (General)</subfield></datafield><datafield 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callnumber-first	R - Medicine
author	Wanshan Zheng
spellingShingle	Wanshan Zheng misc R5-920 misc COVID-19 misc imported case misc quarantine period misc time interval misc risk factor misc Medicine (General) “Low-risk groups” deserve more attention than “high-risk groups” in imported COVID-19 cases
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topic_title	R5-920 “Low-risk groups” deserve more attention than “high-risk groups” in imported COVID-19 cases COVID-19 imported case quarantine period time interval risk factor
topic	misc R5-920 misc COVID-19 misc imported case misc quarantine period misc time interval misc risk factor misc Medicine (General)
topic_unstemmed	misc R5-920 misc COVID-19 misc imported case misc quarantine period misc time interval misc risk factor misc Medicine (General)
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title	“Low-risk groups” deserve more attention than “high-risk groups” in imported COVID-19 cases
ctrlnum	(DE-627)DOAJ100933513 (DE-599)DOAJc285261105c64966946daf095823f52f
title_full	“Low-risk groups” deserve more attention than “high-risk groups” in imported COVID-19 cases
author_sort	Wanshan Zheng
journal	Frontiers in Medicine
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author_browse	Wanshan Zheng Ying Tan Zedi Zhao Jin Chen Xiaomei Dong Xiongfei Chen
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title_sort	“low-risk groups” deserve more attention than “high-risk groups” in imported covid-19 cases
callnumber	R5-920
title_auth	“Low-risk groups” deserve more attention than “high-risk groups” in imported COVID-19 cases
abstract	ObjectiveTo estimate the optimal quarantine period for inbound travelers and identify key risk factors to provide scientific reference for emerging infectious diseases.MethodsA parametric survival analysis model was used to calculate the time interval between entry and first positive nucleic acid test of imported cases in Guangzhou, to identify the influencing factors. And the COVID-19 epidemic risk prediction model based on multiple risk factors among inbound travelers was constructed.ResultsThe approximate 95th percentile of the time interval was 14 days. Multivariate analysis found that the mean time interval for inbound travelers in entry/exit high-risk occupations was 29% shorter (OR 0.29, 95% CI 0.18–0.46, p < 0.0001) than that of low-risk occupations, those from Africa were 37% shorter (OR 0.37, 95% CI 0.17–0.78, p = 0.01) than those from Asia, those who were fully vaccinated were 1.88 times higher (OR 1.88, 95% CI 1.13–3.12, p = 0.01) than that of those who were unvaccinated, and those in other VOC periods were lower than in the Delta period. Decision tree analysis showed that a combined entry/exit low-risk occupation group with Delta period could create a high indigenous epidemic risk by 0.24.ConclusionDifferent strata of imported cases can result in varying degrees of risk of indigenous outbreaks. “low-risk groups” with entry/exit low-risk occupations, fully vaccinated, or from Asia deserve more attention than “high-risk groups.”
abstractGer	ObjectiveTo estimate the optimal quarantine period for inbound travelers and identify key risk factors to provide scientific reference for emerging infectious diseases.MethodsA parametric survival analysis model was used to calculate the time interval between entry and first positive nucleic acid test of imported cases in Guangzhou, to identify the influencing factors. And the COVID-19 epidemic risk prediction model based on multiple risk factors among inbound travelers was constructed.ResultsThe approximate 95th percentile of the time interval was 14 days. Multivariate analysis found that the mean time interval for inbound travelers in entry/exit high-risk occupations was 29% shorter (OR 0.29, 95% CI 0.18–0.46, p < 0.0001) than that of low-risk occupations, those from Africa were 37% shorter (OR 0.37, 95% CI 0.17–0.78, p = 0.01) than those from Asia, those who were fully vaccinated were 1.88 times higher (OR 1.88, 95% CI 1.13–3.12, p = 0.01) than that of those who were unvaccinated, and those in other VOC periods were lower than in the Delta period. Decision tree analysis showed that a combined entry/exit low-risk occupation group with Delta period could create a high indigenous epidemic risk by 0.24.ConclusionDifferent strata of imported cases can result in varying degrees of risk of indigenous outbreaks. “low-risk groups” with entry/exit low-risk occupations, fully vaccinated, or from Asia deserve more attention than “high-risk groups.”
abstract_unstemmed	ObjectiveTo estimate the optimal quarantine period for inbound travelers and identify key risk factors to provide scientific reference for emerging infectious diseases.MethodsA parametric survival analysis model was used to calculate the time interval between entry and first positive nucleic acid test of imported cases in Guangzhou, to identify the influencing factors. And the COVID-19 epidemic risk prediction model based on multiple risk factors among inbound travelers was constructed.ResultsThe approximate 95th percentile of the time interval was 14 days. Multivariate analysis found that the mean time interval for inbound travelers in entry/exit high-risk occupations was 29% shorter (OR 0.29, 95% CI 0.18–0.46, p < 0.0001) than that of low-risk occupations, those from Africa were 37% shorter (OR 0.37, 95% CI 0.17–0.78, p = 0.01) than those from Asia, those who were fully vaccinated were 1.88 times higher (OR 1.88, 95% CI 1.13–3.12, p = 0.01) than that of those who were unvaccinated, and those in other VOC periods were lower than in the Delta period. Decision tree analysis showed that a combined entry/exit low-risk occupation group with Delta period could create a high indigenous epidemic risk by 0.24.ConclusionDifferent strata of imported cases can result in varying degrees of risk of indigenous outbreaks. “low-risk groups” with entry/exit low-risk occupations, fully vaccinated, or from Asia deserve more attention than “high-risk groups.”
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title_short	“Low-risk groups” deserve more attention than “high-risk groups” in imported COVID-19 cases
url	https://doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2023.1293747 https://doaj.org/article/c285261105c64966946daf095823f52f https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2023.1293747/full https://doaj.org/toc/2296-858X
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author2	Ying Tan Zedi Zhao Jin Chen Xiaomei Dong Xiongfei Chen
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doi_str	10.3389/fmed.2023.1293747
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up_date	2024-07-03T17:32:51.479Z
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Decision tree analysis showed that a combined entry/exit low-risk occupation group with Delta period could create a high indigenous epidemic risk by 0.24.ConclusionDifferent strata of imported cases can result in varying degrees of risk of indigenous outbreaks. “low-risk groups” with entry/exit low-risk occupations, fully vaccinated, or from Asia deserve more attention than “high-risk groups.”</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">COVID-19</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">imported case</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">quarantine period</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">time interval</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">risk factor</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Medicine (General)</subfield></datafield><datafield 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2014</subfield><subfield code="g">10(2023)</subfield><subfield code="w">(DE-627)789482991</subfield><subfield code="w">(DE-600)2775999-4</subfield><subfield code="x">2296858X</subfield><subfield code="7">nnns</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="773" ind1="1" ind2="8"><subfield code="g">volume:10</subfield><subfield code="g">year:2023</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2="0"><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2023.1293747</subfield><subfield code="z">kostenfrei</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2="0"><subfield code="u">https://doaj.org/article/c285261105c64966946daf095823f52f</subfield><subfield code="z">kostenfrei</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2="0"><subfield code="u">https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2023.1293747/full</subfield><subfield code="z">kostenfrei</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2="2"><subfield code="u">https://doaj.org/toc/2296-858X</subfield><subfield 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“Low-risk groups” deserve more attention than “high-risk groups” in imported COVID-19 cases

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