Examining the Predictability of Tropical Cyclogenesis over the East Sea of Vietnam through the Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation System

In this study, we conducted experiments to assess the forecasting capabilities for tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the east sea of Vietnam using the ensemble-based data assimilation system (EPS-DA) by WRF-LETKF. These experiments covered forecast lead times of up to 5 days and spanned a period fr...
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Autor*in:	Dao Nguyen-Quynh Hoa [verfasserIn] Tran-Tan Tien [verfasserIn] Nguyen-Y Nhu [verfasserIn] Thi Lan Dao [verfasserIn]

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2023

Schlagwörter:	tropical cyclogenesis ensemble prediction system data assimilation

Übergeordnetes Werk:	In: Atmosphere - MDPI AG, 2011, 14(2023), 11, p 1671
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:14 ; year:2023 ; number:11, p 1671

Links:	Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Link aufrufen Journal toc

DOI / URN:	10.3390/atmos14111671

Katalog-ID:	DOAJ101276400

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allfieldsSound	10.3390/atmos14111671 doi (DE-627)DOAJ101276400 (DE-599)DOAJ9a1f0139e193430da2bbfd600a79315b DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng QC851-999 Dao Nguyen-Quynh Hoa verfasserin aut Examining the Predictability of Tropical Cyclogenesis over the East Sea of Vietnam through the Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation System 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier In this study, we conducted experiments to assess the forecasting capabilities for tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the east sea of Vietnam using the ensemble-based data assimilation system (EPS-DA) by WRF-LETKF. These experiments covered forecast lead times of up to 5 days and spanned a period from 2012 to 2019, involving a total of 45 TC formation events. The evaluation involved forecast probability assessments and positional and timing error analysis. Results indicated that successful forecasting depends on the lead time and initial condition quality. For TC formation from an embryo vortex to tropical depression intensity, the EPS-DA system demonstrated improved accuracy as the forecast cycle approached the actual formation time. TC centers converged towards observed locations, highlighting the potential of assimilation up to 5 days before formation. We examined statistical variations in dynamic and thermodynamic variables relevant to TC processes, offering an objective system assessment. Our study emphasized that early warnings of TC development appear linked to formation-time environmental conditions, particularly strong vorticity and enhanced moisture processes. tropical cyclogenesis ensemble prediction system data assimilation Meteorology. Climatology Tran-Tan Tien verfasserin aut Nguyen-Y Nhu verfasserin aut Thi Lan Dao verfasserin aut In Atmosphere MDPI AG, 2011 14(2023), 11, p 1671 (DE-627)657584010 (DE-600)2605928-9 20734433 nnns volume:14 year:2023 number:11, p 1671 https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14111671 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/article/9a1f0139e193430da2bbfd600a79315b kostenfrei https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/11/1671 kostenfrei https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4433 Journal toc kostenfrei GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_DOAJ GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 14 2023 11, p 1671
language	English
source	In Atmosphere 14(2023), 11, p 1671 volume:14 year:2023 number:11, p 1671
sourceStr	In Atmosphere 14(2023), 11, p 1671 volume:14 year:2023 number:11, p 1671
format_phy_str_mv	Article
institution	findex.gbv.de
topic_facet	tropical cyclogenesis ensemble prediction system data assimilation Meteorology. Climatology
isfreeaccess_bool	true
container_title	Atmosphere
authorswithroles_txt_mv	Dao Nguyen-Quynh Hoa @@aut@@ Tran-Tan Tien @@aut@@ Nguyen-Y Nhu @@aut@@ Thi Lan Dao @@aut@@
publishDateDaySort_date	2023-01-01T00:00:00Z
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callnumber-first	Q - Science
author	Dao Nguyen-Quynh Hoa
spellingShingle	Dao Nguyen-Quynh Hoa misc QC851-999 misc tropical cyclogenesis misc ensemble prediction system misc data assimilation misc Meteorology. Climatology Examining the Predictability of Tropical Cyclogenesis over the East Sea of Vietnam through the Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation System
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topic_title	QC851-999 Examining the Predictability of Tropical Cyclogenesis over the East Sea of Vietnam through the Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation System tropical cyclogenesis ensemble prediction system data assimilation
topic	misc QC851-999 misc tropical cyclogenesis misc ensemble prediction system misc data assimilation misc Meteorology. Climatology
topic_unstemmed	misc QC851-999 misc tropical cyclogenesis misc ensemble prediction system misc data assimilation misc Meteorology. Climatology
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title	Examining the Predictability of Tropical Cyclogenesis over the East Sea of Vietnam through the Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation System
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title_full	Examining the Predictability of Tropical Cyclogenesis over the East Sea of Vietnam through the Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation System
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title_sort	examining the predictability of tropical cyclogenesis over the east sea of vietnam through the ensemble-based data assimilation system
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title_auth	Examining the Predictability of Tropical Cyclogenesis over the East Sea of Vietnam through the Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation System
abstract	In this study, we conducted experiments to assess the forecasting capabilities for tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the east sea of Vietnam using the ensemble-based data assimilation system (EPS-DA) by WRF-LETKF. These experiments covered forecast lead times of up to 5 days and spanned a period from 2012 to 2019, involving a total of 45 TC formation events. The evaluation involved forecast probability assessments and positional and timing error analysis. Results indicated that successful forecasting depends on the lead time and initial condition quality. For TC formation from an embryo vortex to tropical depression intensity, the EPS-DA system demonstrated improved accuracy as the forecast cycle approached the actual formation time. TC centers converged towards observed locations, highlighting the potential of assimilation up to 5 days before formation. We examined statistical variations in dynamic and thermodynamic variables relevant to TC processes, offering an objective system assessment. Our study emphasized that early warnings of TC development appear linked to formation-time environmental conditions, particularly strong vorticity and enhanced moisture processes.
abstractGer	In this study, we conducted experiments to assess the forecasting capabilities for tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the east sea of Vietnam using the ensemble-based data assimilation system (EPS-DA) by WRF-LETKF. These experiments covered forecast lead times of up to 5 days and spanned a period from 2012 to 2019, involving a total of 45 TC formation events. The evaluation involved forecast probability assessments and positional and timing error analysis. Results indicated that successful forecasting depends on the lead time and initial condition quality. For TC formation from an embryo vortex to tropical depression intensity, the EPS-DA system demonstrated improved accuracy as the forecast cycle approached the actual formation time. TC centers converged towards observed locations, highlighting the potential of assimilation up to 5 days before formation. We examined statistical variations in dynamic and thermodynamic variables relevant to TC processes, offering an objective system assessment. Our study emphasized that early warnings of TC development appear linked to formation-time environmental conditions, particularly strong vorticity and enhanced moisture processes.
abstract_unstemmed	In this study, we conducted experiments to assess the forecasting capabilities for tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the east sea of Vietnam using the ensemble-based data assimilation system (EPS-DA) by WRF-LETKF. These experiments covered forecast lead times of up to 5 days and spanned a period from 2012 to 2019, involving a total of 45 TC formation events. The evaluation involved forecast probability assessments and positional and timing error analysis. Results indicated that successful forecasting depends on the lead time and initial condition quality. For TC formation from an embryo vortex to tropical depression intensity, the EPS-DA system demonstrated improved accuracy as the forecast cycle approached the actual formation time. TC centers converged towards observed locations, highlighting the potential of assimilation up to 5 days before formation. We examined statistical variations in dynamic and thermodynamic variables relevant to TC processes, offering an objective system assessment. Our study emphasized that early warnings of TC development appear linked to formation-time environmental conditions, particularly strong vorticity and enhanced moisture processes.
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title_short	Examining the Predictability of Tropical Cyclogenesis over the East Sea of Vietnam through the Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation System
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Examining the Predictability of Tropical Cyclogenesis over the East Sea of Vietnam through the Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation System

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