Effects of spatial planning on future flood risks in urban environments

Urban development may increase the risk of future floods because of local changes in hydrological conditions and an increase in flood exposure that arises from an increasing population and expanding infrastructure within flood-prone zones. Existing urban land use change models generally consider the...
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Autor*in:	Mustafa, Ahmed [verfasserIn] Bruwier, Martin [verfasserIn] Archambeau, Pierre [verfasserIn] Erpicum, Sébastian [verfasserIn] Pirotton, Michel [verfasserIn] Dewals, Benjamin [verfasserIn] Teller, Jacques [verfasserIn]

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2018

Schlagwörter:	Urban flooding Flood damage Urban expansion Urban densification Agent-based model Wallonia

Übergeordnetes Werk:	Enthalten in: Journal of environmental management - Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 1990, 225, Seite 193-204
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:225 ; pages:193-204

DOI / URN:	10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.07.090

Katalog-ID:	ELV000405124

Internformat


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520			\|a Urban development may increase the risk of future floods because of local changes in hydrological conditions and an increase in flood exposure that arises from an increasing population and expanding infrastructure within flood-prone zones. Existing urban land use change models generally consider the expansion process and do not consider the densification of existing urban areas. In this paper, we simulate 24 possible urbanization scenarios in Wallonia region (Belgium) until 2100. These scenarios are generated using an agent-based model that considers urban expansion and densification as well as development restrictions in flood-prone zones. The extents of inundation and water depths for each scenario are determined by the WOLF 2D hydraulic model for steady floods corresponding to return periods of 25, 50, and 100 years. Our results show that future flood damages and their spatial distributions vary remarkably from one urbanization scenario to another. A spatial planning policy oriented towards strict development control in flood-prone zones leads to a substantial mitigation of the increased flood damage. By contrast, a spatial planning policy exclusively oriented to infill development with no development restrictions in flood-prone zones would be the most detrimental in terms of exposure to flood risk. Our study enables the identification of the most sensitive locations for flood damage related to urban development, which can help in the design of more resilient spatial planning strategies and localize zones with high levels of flood risk for each scenario.
650		4	\|a Urban flooding
650		4	\|a Flood damage
650		4	\|a Urban expansion
650		4	\|a Urban densification
650		4	\|a Agent-based model
650		4	\|a Wallonia
700	1		\|a Bruwier, Martin \|e verfasserin \|0 (orcid)0000-0001-6596-1273 \|4 aut
700	1		\|a Archambeau, Pierre \|e verfasserin \|4 aut
700	1		\|a Erpicum, Sébastian \|e verfasserin \|4 aut
700	1		\|a Pirotton, Michel \|e verfasserin \|4 aut
700	1		\|a Dewals, Benjamin \|e verfasserin \|4 aut
700	1		\|a Teller, Jacques \|e verfasserin \|0 (orcid)0000-0003-2498-1838 \|4 aut
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936	b	k	\|a 48.00 \|j Land- und Forstwirtschaft: Allgemeines
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matchkey_str	article:10958630:2018----::fetosaillnignuuelorssn
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allfields	10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.07.090 doi (DE-627)ELV000405124 (ELSEVIER)S0301-4797(18)30853-3 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng 333.7 690 DE-600 48.00 bkl Mustafa, Ahmed verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-1592-6637 aut Effects of spatial planning on future flood risks in urban environments 2018 nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Urban development may increase the risk of future floods because of local changes in hydrological conditions and an increase in flood exposure that arises from an increasing population and expanding infrastructure within flood-prone zones. Existing urban land use change models generally consider the expansion process and do not consider the densification of existing urban areas. In this paper, we simulate 24 possible urbanization scenarios in Wallonia region (Belgium) until 2100. These scenarios are generated using an agent-based model that considers urban expansion and densification as well as development restrictions in flood-prone zones. The extents of inundation and water depths for each scenario are determined by the WOLF 2D hydraulic model for steady floods corresponding to return periods of 25, 50, and 100 years. Our results show that future flood damages and their spatial distributions vary remarkably from one urbanization scenario to another. A spatial planning policy oriented towards strict development control in flood-prone zones leads to a substantial mitigation of the increased flood damage. By contrast, a spatial planning policy exclusively oriented to infill development with no development restrictions in flood-prone zones would be the most detrimental in terms of exposure to flood risk. Our study enables the identification of the most sensitive locations for flood damage related to urban development, which can help in the design of more resilient spatial planning strategies and localize zones with high levels of flood risk for each scenario. Urban flooding Flood damage Urban expansion Urban densification Agent-based model Wallonia Bruwier, Martin verfasserin (orcid)0000-0001-6596-1273 aut Archambeau, Pierre verfasserin aut Erpicum, Sébastian verfasserin aut Pirotton, Michel verfasserin aut Dewals, Benjamin verfasserin aut Teller, Jacques verfasserin (orcid)0000-0003-2498-1838 aut Enthalten in Journal of environmental management Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 1990 225, Seite 193-204 Online-Ressource (DE-627)266892868 (DE-600)1469206-5 (DE-576)10434461X 1095-8630 nnns volume:225 pages:193-204 GBV_USEFLAG_U SYSFLAG_U GBV_ELV SSG-OPC-FOR GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 48.00 Land- und Forstwirtschaft: Allgemeines AR 225 193-204
spelling	10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.07.090 doi (DE-627)ELV000405124 (ELSEVIER)S0301-4797(18)30853-3 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng 333.7 690 DE-600 48.00 bkl Mustafa, Ahmed verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-1592-6637 aut Effects of spatial planning on future flood risks in urban environments 2018 nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Urban development may increase the risk of future floods because of local changes in hydrological conditions and an increase in flood exposure that arises from an increasing population and expanding infrastructure within flood-prone zones. Existing urban land use change models generally consider the expansion process and do not consider the densification of existing urban areas. In this paper, we simulate 24 possible urbanization scenarios in Wallonia region (Belgium) until 2100. These scenarios are generated using an agent-based model that considers urban expansion and densification as well as development restrictions in flood-prone zones. The extents of inundation and water depths for each scenario are determined by the WOLF 2D hydraulic model for steady floods corresponding to return periods of 25, 50, and 100 years. Our results show that future flood damages and their spatial distributions vary remarkably from one urbanization scenario to another. A spatial planning policy oriented towards strict development control in flood-prone zones leads to a substantial mitigation of the increased flood damage. By contrast, a spatial planning policy exclusively oriented to infill development with no development restrictions in flood-prone zones would be the most detrimental in terms of exposure to flood risk. Our study enables the identification of the most sensitive locations for flood damage related to urban development, which can help in the design of more resilient spatial planning strategies and localize zones with high levels of flood risk for each scenario. Urban flooding Flood damage Urban expansion Urban densification Agent-based model Wallonia Bruwier, Martin verfasserin (orcid)0000-0001-6596-1273 aut Archambeau, Pierre verfasserin aut Erpicum, Sébastian verfasserin aut Pirotton, Michel verfasserin aut Dewals, Benjamin verfasserin aut Teller, Jacques verfasserin (orcid)0000-0003-2498-1838 aut Enthalten in Journal of environmental management Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 1990 225, Seite 193-204 Online-Ressource (DE-627)266892868 (DE-600)1469206-5 (DE-576)10434461X 1095-8630 nnns volume:225 pages:193-204 GBV_USEFLAG_U SYSFLAG_U GBV_ELV SSG-OPC-FOR GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 48.00 Land- und Forstwirtschaft: Allgemeines AR 225 193-204
allfields_unstemmed	10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.07.090 doi (DE-627)ELV000405124 (ELSEVIER)S0301-4797(18)30853-3 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng 333.7 690 DE-600 48.00 bkl Mustafa, Ahmed verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-1592-6637 aut Effects of spatial planning on future flood risks in urban environments 2018 nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Urban development may increase the risk of future floods because of local changes in hydrological conditions and an increase in flood exposure that arises from an increasing population and expanding infrastructure within flood-prone zones. Existing urban land use change models generally consider the expansion process and do not consider the densification of existing urban areas. In this paper, we simulate 24 possible urbanization scenarios in Wallonia region (Belgium) until 2100. These scenarios are generated using an agent-based model that considers urban expansion and densification as well as development restrictions in flood-prone zones. The extents of inundation and water depths for each scenario are determined by the WOLF 2D hydraulic model for steady floods corresponding to return periods of 25, 50, and 100 years. Our results show that future flood damages and their spatial distributions vary remarkably from one urbanization scenario to another. A spatial planning policy oriented towards strict development control in flood-prone zones leads to a substantial mitigation of the increased flood damage. By contrast, a spatial planning policy exclusively oriented to infill development with no development restrictions in flood-prone zones would be the most detrimental in terms of exposure to flood risk. Our study enables the identification of the most sensitive locations for flood damage related to urban development, which can help in the design of more resilient spatial planning strategies and localize zones with high levels of flood risk for each scenario. Urban flooding Flood damage Urban expansion Urban densification Agent-based model Wallonia Bruwier, Martin verfasserin (orcid)0000-0001-6596-1273 aut Archambeau, Pierre verfasserin aut Erpicum, Sébastian verfasserin aut Pirotton, Michel verfasserin aut Dewals, Benjamin verfasserin aut Teller, Jacques verfasserin (orcid)0000-0003-2498-1838 aut Enthalten in Journal of environmental management Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 1990 225, Seite 193-204 Online-Ressource (DE-627)266892868 (DE-600)1469206-5 (DE-576)10434461X 1095-8630 nnns volume:225 pages:193-204 GBV_USEFLAG_U SYSFLAG_U GBV_ELV SSG-OPC-FOR GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 48.00 Land- und Forstwirtschaft: Allgemeines AR 225 193-204
allfieldsGer	10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.07.090 doi (DE-627)ELV000405124 (ELSEVIER)S0301-4797(18)30853-3 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng 333.7 690 DE-600 48.00 bkl Mustafa, Ahmed verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-1592-6637 aut Effects of spatial planning on future flood risks in urban environments 2018 nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Urban development may increase the risk of future floods because of local changes in hydrological conditions and an increase in flood exposure that arises from an increasing population and expanding infrastructure within flood-prone zones. Existing urban land use change models generally consider the expansion process and do not consider the densification of existing urban areas. In this paper, we simulate 24 possible urbanization scenarios in Wallonia region (Belgium) until 2100. These scenarios are generated using an agent-based model that considers urban expansion and densification as well as development restrictions in flood-prone zones. The extents of inundation and water depths for each scenario are determined by the WOLF 2D hydraulic model for steady floods corresponding to return periods of 25, 50, and 100 years. Our results show that future flood damages and their spatial distributions vary remarkably from one urbanization scenario to another. A spatial planning policy oriented towards strict development control in flood-prone zones leads to a substantial mitigation of the increased flood damage. By contrast, a spatial planning policy exclusively oriented to infill development with no development restrictions in flood-prone zones would be the most detrimental in terms of exposure to flood risk. Our study enables the identification of the most sensitive locations for flood damage related to urban development, which can help in the design of more resilient spatial planning strategies and localize zones with high levels of flood risk for each scenario. Urban flooding Flood damage Urban expansion Urban densification Agent-based model Wallonia Bruwier, Martin verfasserin (orcid)0000-0001-6596-1273 aut Archambeau, Pierre verfasserin aut Erpicum, Sébastian verfasserin aut Pirotton, Michel verfasserin aut Dewals, Benjamin verfasserin aut Teller, Jacques verfasserin (orcid)0000-0003-2498-1838 aut Enthalten in Journal of environmental management Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 1990 225, Seite 193-204 Online-Ressource (DE-627)266892868 (DE-600)1469206-5 (DE-576)10434461X 1095-8630 nnns volume:225 pages:193-204 GBV_USEFLAG_U SYSFLAG_U GBV_ELV SSG-OPC-FOR GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 48.00 Land- und Forstwirtschaft: Allgemeines AR 225 193-204
allfieldsSound	10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.07.090 doi (DE-627)ELV000405124 (ELSEVIER)S0301-4797(18)30853-3 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng 333.7 690 DE-600 48.00 bkl Mustafa, Ahmed verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-1592-6637 aut Effects of spatial planning on future flood risks in urban environments 2018 nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Urban development may increase the risk of future floods because of local changes in hydrological conditions and an increase in flood exposure that arises from an increasing population and expanding infrastructure within flood-prone zones. Existing urban land use change models generally consider the expansion process and do not consider the densification of existing urban areas. In this paper, we simulate 24 possible urbanization scenarios in Wallonia region (Belgium) until 2100. These scenarios are generated using an agent-based model that considers urban expansion and densification as well as development restrictions in flood-prone zones. The extents of inundation and water depths for each scenario are determined by the WOLF 2D hydraulic model for steady floods corresponding to return periods of 25, 50, and 100 years. Our results show that future flood damages and their spatial distributions vary remarkably from one urbanization scenario to another. A spatial planning policy oriented towards strict development control in flood-prone zones leads to a substantial mitigation of the increased flood damage. By contrast, a spatial planning policy exclusively oriented to infill development with no development restrictions in flood-prone zones would be the most detrimental in terms of exposure to flood risk. Our study enables the identification of the most sensitive locations for flood damage related to urban development, which can help in the design of more resilient spatial planning strategies and localize zones with high levels of flood risk for each scenario. Urban flooding Flood damage Urban expansion Urban densification Agent-based model Wallonia Bruwier, Martin verfasserin (orcid)0000-0001-6596-1273 aut Archambeau, Pierre verfasserin aut Erpicum, Sébastian verfasserin aut Pirotton, Michel verfasserin aut Dewals, Benjamin verfasserin aut Teller, Jacques verfasserin (orcid)0000-0003-2498-1838 aut Enthalten in Journal of environmental management Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 1990 225, Seite 193-204 Online-Ressource (DE-627)266892868 (DE-600)1469206-5 (DE-576)10434461X 1095-8630 nnns volume:225 pages:193-204 GBV_USEFLAG_U SYSFLAG_U GBV_ELV SSG-OPC-FOR GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 48.00 Land- und Forstwirtschaft: Allgemeines AR 225 193-204
language	English
source	Enthalten in Journal of environmental management 225, Seite 193-204 volume:225 pages:193-204
sourceStr	Enthalten in Journal of environmental management 225, Seite 193-204 volume:225 pages:193-204
format_phy_str_mv	Article
bklname	Land- und Forstwirtschaft: Allgemeines
institution	findex.gbv.de
topic_facet	Urban flooding Flood damage Urban expansion Urban densification Agent-based model Wallonia
dewey-raw	333.7
isfreeaccess_bool	false
container_title	Journal of environmental management
authorswithroles_txt_mv	Mustafa, Ahmed @@aut@@ Bruwier, Martin @@aut@@ Archambeau, Pierre @@aut@@ Erpicum, Sébastian @@aut@@ Pirotton, Michel @@aut@@ Dewals, Benjamin @@aut@@ Teller, Jacques @@aut@@
publishDateDaySort_date	2018-01-01T00:00:00Z
hierarchy_top_id	266892868
dewey-sort	3333.7
id	ELV000405124
language_de	englisch
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author	Mustafa, Ahmed
spellingShingle	Mustafa, Ahmed ddc 333.7 bkl 48.00 misc Urban flooding misc Flood damage misc Urban expansion misc Urban densification misc Agent-based model misc Wallonia Effects of spatial planning on future flood risks in urban environments
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topic_title	333.7 690 DE-600 48.00 bkl Effects of spatial planning on future flood risks in urban environments Urban flooding Flood damage Urban expansion Urban densification Agent-based model Wallonia
topic	ddc 333.7 bkl 48.00 misc Urban flooding misc Flood damage misc Urban expansion misc Urban densification misc Agent-based model misc Wallonia
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title	Effects of spatial planning on future flood risks in urban environments
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title_full	Effects of spatial planning on future flood risks in urban environments
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title_sort	effects of spatial planning on future flood risks in urban environments
title_auth	Effects of spatial planning on future flood risks in urban environments
abstract	Urban development may increase the risk of future floods because of local changes in hydrological conditions and an increase in flood exposure that arises from an increasing population and expanding infrastructure within flood-prone zones. Existing urban land use change models generally consider the expansion process and do not consider the densification of existing urban areas. In this paper, we simulate 24 possible urbanization scenarios in Wallonia region (Belgium) until 2100. These scenarios are generated using an agent-based model that considers urban expansion and densification as well as development restrictions in flood-prone zones. The extents of inundation and water depths for each scenario are determined by the WOLF 2D hydraulic model for steady floods corresponding to return periods of 25, 50, and 100 years. Our results show that future flood damages and their spatial distributions vary remarkably from one urbanization scenario to another. A spatial planning policy oriented towards strict development control in flood-prone zones leads to a substantial mitigation of the increased flood damage. By contrast, a spatial planning policy exclusively oriented to infill development with no development restrictions in flood-prone zones would be the most detrimental in terms of exposure to flood risk. Our study enables the identification of the most sensitive locations for flood damage related to urban development, which can help in the design of more resilient spatial planning strategies and localize zones with high levels of flood risk for each scenario.
abstractGer	Urban development may increase the risk of future floods because of local changes in hydrological conditions and an increase in flood exposure that arises from an increasing population and expanding infrastructure within flood-prone zones. Existing urban land use change models generally consider the expansion process and do not consider the densification of existing urban areas. In this paper, we simulate 24 possible urbanization scenarios in Wallonia region (Belgium) until 2100. These scenarios are generated using an agent-based model that considers urban expansion and densification as well as development restrictions in flood-prone zones. The extents of inundation and water depths for each scenario are determined by the WOLF 2D hydraulic model for steady floods corresponding to return periods of 25, 50, and 100 years. Our results show that future flood damages and their spatial distributions vary remarkably from one urbanization scenario to another. A spatial planning policy oriented towards strict development control in flood-prone zones leads to a substantial mitigation of the increased flood damage. By contrast, a spatial planning policy exclusively oriented to infill development with no development restrictions in flood-prone zones would be the most detrimental in terms of exposure to flood risk. Our study enables the identification of the most sensitive locations for flood damage related to urban development, which can help in the design of more resilient spatial planning strategies and localize zones with high levels of flood risk for each scenario.
abstract_unstemmed	Urban development may increase the risk of future floods because of local changes in hydrological conditions and an increase in flood exposure that arises from an increasing population and expanding infrastructure within flood-prone zones. Existing urban land use change models generally consider the expansion process and do not consider the densification of existing urban areas. In this paper, we simulate 24 possible urbanization scenarios in Wallonia region (Belgium) until 2100. These scenarios are generated using an agent-based model that considers urban expansion and densification as well as development restrictions in flood-prone zones. The extents of inundation and water depths for each scenario are determined by the WOLF 2D hydraulic model for steady floods corresponding to return periods of 25, 50, and 100 years. Our results show that future flood damages and their spatial distributions vary remarkably from one urbanization scenario to another. A spatial planning policy oriented towards strict development control in flood-prone zones leads to a substantial mitigation of the increased flood damage. By contrast, a spatial planning policy exclusively oriented to infill development with no development restrictions in flood-prone zones would be the most detrimental in terms of exposure to flood risk. Our study enables the identification of the most sensitive locations for flood damage related to urban development, which can help in the design of more resilient spatial planning strategies and localize zones with high levels of flood risk for each scenario.
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title_short	Effects of spatial planning on future flood risks in urban environments
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Effects of spatial planning on future flood risks in urban environments

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