Population dynamics of the endangered Kemp’s ridley sea turtle following the 2010 oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico: Simulation of potential cause-effect relationships
The Kemp’s ridley (Lepidochelys kempii) is a critically endangered sea turtle that breeds nearly exclusively in the Gulf of Mexico, with scattered nesting along the U.S. Atlantic coast. In 2010, an unprecedented increase in strandings concomitant with a large oil spill in the northern Gulf raised co...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Autor*in: |
Kocmoud, Amanda R. [verfasserIn] Wang, Hsiao-Hsuan [verfasserIn] Grant, William E. [verfasserIn] Gallaway, Benny J. [verfasserIn] |
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Format: |
E-Artikel |
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Sprache: |
Englisch |
Erschienen: |
2018 |
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Schlagwörter: |
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Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Ecological modelling - Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier Science, 1975, 392, Seite 159-178 |
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Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:392 ; pages:159-178 |
DOI / URN: |
10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.11.014 |
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Katalog-ID: |
ELV001719068 |
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520 | |a The Kemp’s ridley (Lepidochelys kempii) is a critically endangered sea turtle that breeds nearly exclusively in the Gulf of Mexico, with scattered nesting along the U.S. Atlantic coast. In 2010, an unprecedented increase in strandings concomitant with a large oil spill in the northern Gulf raised concern about impacts on population recovery. We used several versions of an age-structured model representing hypothesized “pulse,” “press,” and “density-dependent remigration” effects of the 2010 mortality event to simulate post-2010 population dynamics. Only a “density-dependent remigration” version simulated population fluctuations observed from 2009 to 2014. Population dynamics projected through 2035 using this version indicated essentially exponential growth, with the simulated adult female population reaching ≈110,000 in 2035 (as indicated by nest counts at the index beach). Of most interest within a management context is the apparent resiliency of the population to large mortality events of short duration. Two important caveats to this statement are the assumptions that there has been no reduction of suitable habitats and that per capita availability of food resources is sufficient to support population recovery. Simulation results also provide insight into the myriad of potential responses of an age-structured population of long-lived animals to such events. | ||
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700 | 1 | |a Wang, Hsiao-Hsuan |e verfasserin |0 (orcid)0000-0002-7850-0406 |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Grant, William E. |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Gallaway, Benny J. |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.11.014 doi (DE-627)ELV001719068 (ELSEVIER)S0304-3800(18)30402-2 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng 570 DE-600 BIODIV DE-30 fid 42.90 bkl Kocmoud, Amanda R. verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-3728-5658 aut Population dynamics of the endangered Kemp’s ridley sea turtle following the 2010 oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico: Simulation of potential cause-effect relationships 2018 nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier The Kemp’s ridley (Lepidochelys kempii) is a critically endangered sea turtle that breeds nearly exclusively in the Gulf of Mexico, with scattered nesting along the U.S. Atlantic coast. In 2010, an unprecedented increase in strandings concomitant with a large oil spill in the northern Gulf raised concern about impacts on population recovery. We used several versions of an age-structured model representing hypothesized “pulse,” “press,” and “density-dependent remigration” effects of the 2010 mortality event to simulate post-2010 population dynamics. Only a “density-dependent remigration” version simulated population fluctuations observed from 2009 to 2014. Population dynamics projected through 2035 using this version indicated essentially exponential growth, with the simulated adult female population reaching ≈110,000 in 2035 (as indicated by nest counts at the index beach). Of most interest within a management context is the apparent resiliency of the population to large mortality events of short duration. Two important caveats to this statement are the assumptions that there has been no reduction of suitable habitats and that per capita availability of food resources is sufficient to support population recovery. Simulation results also provide insight into the myriad of potential responses of an age-structured population of long-lived animals to such events. Age-structured model Population projection Remigration Wang, Hsiao-Hsuan verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-7850-0406 aut Grant, William E. verfasserin aut Gallaway, Benny J. verfasserin aut Enthalten in Ecological modelling Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier Science, 1975 392, Seite 159-178 Online-Ressource (DE-627)320407543 (DE-600)2000879-X (DE-576)094752540 0304-3800 nnns volume:392 pages:159-178 GBV_USEFLAG_U SYSFLAG_U GBV_ELV FID-BIODIV SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_101 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 42.90 Ökologie: Allgemeines AR 392 159-178 |
spelling |
10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.11.014 doi (DE-627)ELV001719068 (ELSEVIER)S0304-3800(18)30402-2 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng 570 DE-600 BIODIV DE-30 fid 42.90 bkl Kocmoud, Amanda R. verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-3728-5658 aut Population dynamics of the endangered Kemp’s ridley sea turtle following the 2010 oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico: Simulation of potential cause-effect relationships 2018 nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier The Kemp’s ridley (Lepidochelys kempii) is a critically endangered sea turtle that breeds nearly exclusively in the Gulf of Mexico, with scattered nesting along the U.S. Atlantic coast. In 2010, an unprecedented increase in strandings concomitant with a large oil spill in the northern Gulf raised concern about impacts on population recovery. We used several versions of an age-structured model representing hypothesized “pulse,” “press,” and “density-dependent remigration” effects of the 2010 mortality event to simulate post-2010 population dynamics. Only a “density-dependent remigration” version simulated population fluctuations observed from 2009 to 2014. Population dynamics projected through 2035 using this version indicated essentially exponential growth, with the simulated adult female population reaching ≈110,000 in 2035 (as indicated by nest counts at the index beach). Of most interest within a management context is the apparent resiliency of the population to large mortality events of short duration. Two important caveats to this statement are the assumptions that there has been no reduction of suitable habitats and that per capita availability of food resources is sufficient to support population recovery. Simulation results also provide insight into the myriad of potential responses of an age-structured population of long-lived animals to such events. Age-structured model Population projection Remigration Wang, Hsiao-Hsuan verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-7850-0406 aut Grant, William E. verfasserin aut Gallaway, Benny J. verfasserin aut Enthalten in Ecological modelling Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier Science, 1975 392, Seite 159-178 Online-Ressource (DE-627)320407543 (DE-600)2000879-X (DE-576)094752540 0304-3800 nnns volume:392 pages:159-178 GBV_USEFLAG_U SYSFLAG_U GBV_ELV FID-BIODIV SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_101 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 42.90 Ökologie: Allgemeines AR 392 159-178 |
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10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.11.014 doi (DE-627)ELV001719068 (ELSEVIER)S0304-3800(18)30402-2 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng 570 DE-600 BIODIV DE-30 fid 42.90 bkl Kocmoud, Amanda R. verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-3728-5658 aut Population dynamics of the endangered Kemp’s ridley sea turtle following the 2010 oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico: Simulation of potential cause-effect relationships 2018 nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier The Kemp’s ridley (Lepidochelys kempii) is a critically endangered sea turtle that breeds nearly exclusively in the Gulf of Mexico, with scattered nesting along the U.S. Atlantic coast. In 2010, an unprecedented increase in strandings concomitant with a large oil spill in the northern Gulf raised concern about impacts on population recovery. We used several versions of an age-structured model representing hypothesized “pulse,” “press,” and “density-dependent remigration” effects of the 2010 mortality event to simulate post-2010 population dynamics. Only a “density-dependent remigration” version simulated population fluctuations observed from 2009 to 2014. Population dynamics projected through 2035 using this version indicated essentially exponential growth, with the simulated adult female population reaching ≈110,000 in 2035 (as indicated by nest counts at the index beach). Of most interest within a management context is the apparent resiliency of the population to large mortality events of short duration. Two important caveats to this statement are the assumptions that there has been no reduction of suitable habitats and that per capita availability of food resources is sufficient to support population recovery. Simulation results also provide insight into the myriad of potential responses of an age-structured population of long-lived animals to such events. Age-structured model Population projection Remigration Wang, Hsiao-Hsuan verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-7850-0406 aut Grant, William E. verfasserin aut Gallaway, Benny J. verfasserin aut Enthalten in Ecological modelling Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier Science, 1975 392, Seite 159-178 Online-Ressource (DE-627)320407543 (DE-600)2000879-X (DE-576)094752540 0304-3800 nnns volume:392 pages:159-178 GBV_USEFLAG_U SYSFLAG_U GBV_ELV FID-BIODIV SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_101 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 42.90 Ökologie: Allgemeines AR 392 159-178 |
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10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.11.014 doi (DE-627)ELV001719068 (ELSEVIER)S0304-3800(18)30402-2 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng 570 DE-600 BIODIV DE-30 fid 42.90 bkl Kocmoud, Amanda R. verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-3728-5658 aut Population dynamics of the endangered Kemp’s ridley sea turtle following the 2010 oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico: Simulation of potential cause-effect relationships 2018 nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier The Kemp’s ridley (Lepidochelys kempii) is a critically endangered sea turtle that breeds nearly exclusively in the Gulf of Mexico, with scattered nesting along the U.S. Atlantic coast. In 2010, an unprecedented increase in strandings concomitant with a large oil spill in the northern Gulf raised concern about impacts on population recovery. We used several versions of an age-structured model representing hypothesized “pulse,” “press,” and “density-dependent remigration” effects of the 2010 mortality event to simulate post-2010 population dynamics. Only a “density-dependent remigration” version simulated population fluctuations observed from 2009 to 2014. Population dynamics projected through 2035 using this version indicated essentially exponential growth, with the simulated adult female population reaching ≈110,000 in 2035 (as indicated by nest counts at the index beach). Of most interest within a management context is the apparent resiliency of the population to large mortality events of short duration. Two important caveats to this statement are the assumptions that there has been no reduction of suitable habitats and that per capita availability of food resources is sufficient to support population recovery. Simulation results also provide insight into the myriad of potential responses of an age-structured population of long-lived animals to such events. Age-structured model Population projection Remigration Wang, Hsiao-Hsuan verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-7850-0406 aut Grant, William E. verfasserin aut Gallaway, Benny J. verfasserin aut Enthalten in Ecological modelling Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier Science, 1975 392, Seite 159-178 Online-Ressource (DE-627)320407543 (DE-600)2000879-X (DE-576)094752540 0304-3800 nnns volume:392 pages:159-178 GBV_USEFLAG_U SYSFLAG_U GBV_ELV FID-BIODIV SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_101 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 42.90 Ökologie: Allgemeines AR 392 159-178 |
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10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.11.014 doi (DE-627)ELV001719068 (ELSEVIER)S0304-3800(18)30402-2 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng 570 DE-600 BIODIV DE-30 fid 42.90 bkl Kocmoud, Amanda R. verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-3728-5658 aut Population dynamics of the endangered Kemp’s ridley sea turtle following the 2010 oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico: Simulation of potential cause-effect relationships 2018 nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier The Kemp’s ridley (Lepidochelys kempii) is a critically endangered sea turtle that breeds nearly exclusively in the Gulf of Mexico, with scattered nesting along the U.S. Atlantic coast. In 2010, an unprecedented increase in strandings concomitant with a large oil spill in the northern Gulf raised concern about impacts on population recovery. We used several versions of an age-structured model representing hypothesized “pulse,” “press,” and “density-dependent remigration” effects of the 2010 mortality event to simulate post-2010 population dynamics. Only a “density-dependent remigration” version simulated population fluctuations observed from 2009 to 2014. Population dynamics projected through 2035 using this version indicated essentially exponential growth, with the simulated adult female population reaching ≈110,000 in 2035 (as indicated by nest counts at the index beach). Of most interest within a management context is the apparent resiliency of the population to large mortality events of short duration. Two important caveats to this statement are the assumptions that there has been no reduction of suitable habitats and that per capita availability of food resources is sufficient to support population recovery. Simulation results also provide insight into the myriad of potential responses of an age-structured population of long-lived animals to such events. Age-structured model Population projection Remigration Wang, Hsiao-Hsuan verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-7850-0406 aut Grant, William E. verfasserin aut Gallaway, Benny J. verfasserin aut Enthalten in Ecological modelling Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier Science, 1975 392, Seite 159-178 Online-Ressource (DE-627)320407543 (DE-600)2000879-X (DE-576)094752540 0304-3800 nnns volume:392 pages:159-178 GBV_USEFLAG_U SYSFLAG_U GBV_ELV FID-BIODIV SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_101 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 42.90 Ökologie: Allgemeines AR 392 159-178 |
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Population dynamics of the endangered Kemp’s ridley sea turtle following the 2010 oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico: Simulation of potential cause-effect relationships |
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Population dynamics of the endangered Kemp’s ridley sea turtle following the 2010 oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico: Simulation of potential cause-effect relationships |
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Kocmoud, Amanda R. Wang, Hsiao-Hsuan Grant, William E. Gallaway, Benny J. |
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population dynamics of the endangered kemp’s ridley sea turtle following the 2010 oil spill in the gulf of mexico: simulation of potential cause-effect relationships |
title_auth |
Population dynamics of the endangered Kemp’s ridley sea turtle following the 2010 oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico: Simulation of potential cause-effect relationships |
abstract |
The Kemp’s ridley (Lepidochelys kempii) is a critically endangered sea turtle that breeds nearly exclusively in the Gulf of Mexico, with scattered nesting along the U.S. Atlantic coast. In 2010, an unprecedented increase in strandings concomitant with a large oil spill in the northern Gulf raised concern about impacts on population recovery. We used several versions of an age-structured model representing hypothesized “pulse,” “press,” and “density-dependent remigration” effects of the 2010 mortality event to simulate post-2010 population dynamics. Only a “density-dependent remigration” version simulated population fluctuations observed from 2009 to 2014. Population dynamics projected through 2035 using this version indicated essentially exponential growth, with the simulated adult female population reaching ≈110,000 in 2035 (as indicated by nest counts at the index beach). Of most interest within a management context is the apparent resiliency of the population to large mortality events of short duration. Two important caveats to this statement are the assumptions that there has been no reduction of suitable habitats and that per capita availability of food resources is sufficient to support population recovery. Simulation results also provide insight into the myriad of potential responses of an age-structured population of long-lived animals to such events. |
abstractGer |
The Kemp’s ridley (Lepidochelys kempii) is a critically endangered sea turtle that breeds nearly exclusively in the Gulf of Mexico, with scattered nesting along the U.S. Atlantic coast. In 2010, an unprecedented increase in strandings concomitant with a large oil spill in the northern Gulf raised concern about impacts on population recovery. We used several versions of an age-structured model representing hypothesized “pulse,” “press,” and “density-dependent remigration” effects of the 2010 mortality event to simulate post-2010 population dynamics. Only a “density-dependent remigration” version simulated population fluctuations observed from 2009 to 2014. Population dynamics projected through 2035 using this version indicated essentially exponential growth, with the simulated adult female population reaching ≈110,000 in 2035 (as indicated by nest counts at the index beach). Of most interest within a management context is the apparent resiliency of the population to large mortality events of short duration. Two important caveats to this statement are the assumptions that there has been no reduction of suitable habitats and that per capita availability of food resources is sufficient to support population recovery. Simulation results also provide insight into the myriad of potential responses of an age-structured population of long-lived animals to such events. |
abstract_unstemmed |
The Kemp’s ridley (Lepidochelys kempii) is a critically endangered sea turtle that breeds nearly exclusively in the Gulf of Mexico, with scattered nesting along the U.S. Atlantic coast. In 2010, an unprecedented increase in strandings concomitant with a large oil spill in the northern Gulf raised concern about impacts on population recovery. We used several versions of an age-structured model representing hypothesized “pulse,” “press,” and “density-dependent remigration” effects of the 2010 mortality event to simulate post-2010 population dynamics. Only a “density-dependent remigration” version simulated population fluctuations observed from 2009 to 2014. Population dynamics projected through 2035 using this version indicated essentially exponential growth, with the simulated adult female population reaching ≈110,000 in 2035 (as indicated by nest counts at the index beach). Of most interest within a management context is the apparent resiliency of the population to large mortality events of short duration. Two important caveats to this statement are the assumptions that there has been no reduction of suitable habitats and that per capita availability of food resources is sufficient to support population recovery. Simulation results also provide insight into the myriad of potential responses of an age-structured population of long-lived animals to such events. |
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title_short |
Population dynamics of the endangered Kemp’s ridley sea turtle following the 2010 oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico: Simulation of potential cause-effect relationships |
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