Uncertainty analysis of passenger evacuation time for ships’ safe return to port in fires using polynomial chaos expansion with Gauss quadrature
With the rapid development of water transportation and tourism, safe return to port is required by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) for passenger ships subject to fires. In order to ensure the life safety of passengers, a quantitative analysis method based on polynomial chaos expansion...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Gespeichert in:
| Autor*in: |
Xie, Qimiao [verfasserIn] Li, Shanshan [verfasserIn] Ma, Chao [verfasserIn] Wang, Jinhui [verfasserIn] Liu, Jiahao [verfasserIn] Wang, Yu [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
E-Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2020 |
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| Schlagwörter: |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Applied ocean research - Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier Science, 1979, 101 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:101 |
| DOI / URN: |
10.1016/j.apor.2020.102190 |
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| Katalog-ID: |
ELV004515838 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Uncertainty analysis of passenger evacuation time for ships’ safe return to port in fires using polynomial chaos expansion with Gauss quadrature |
| 264 | 1 | |c 2020 | |
| 336 | |a nicht spezifiziert |b zzz |2 rdacontent | ||
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| 520 | |a With the rapid development of water transportation and tourism, safe return to port is required by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) for passenger ships subject to fires. In order to ensure the life safety of passengers, a quantitative analysis method based on polynomial chaos expansion with Gauss quadrature is developed to address the uncertainty of passenger evacuation time for ships’ safe return to port in fires. To illustrate the proposed method, passenger evacuation in a hypothetical main vertical zone of ships is analyzed in this paper. The results indicate that the proposed method can be used to quantify the uncertainty of evacuation time for ships’ safe return to port, significantly reducing the number of evaluation samples. In addition, evacuation times approximately follow normal and lognormal distributions when the initial passenger density is normally distributed. Moreover, for a certain safety level, the safety factor of evacuation time in the day should be larger than that in the night, which depends on its coefficient of variation. For the calculation of evacuation time, the feasibility of the safety factor 1.25 recommended in MSC.1/Circ.1533 is examined as well. Furthermore, the effects of evacuation exit on the expansion degree of the surrogate model, distribution type and the coefficient of variation of travel time are negligible, while it has a significant influence on distribution parameters of travel time. This work will provide a methodology to facilitate the fire safety design of passenger ships. | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Ship fires | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Evacuation time | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Surrogate model | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Uncertainty analysis | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Safety factor | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Evacuation analysis | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Li, Shanshan |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Ma, Chao |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Wang, Jinhui |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Liu, Jiahao |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Wang, Yu |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t Applied ocean research |d Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier Science, 1979 |g 101 |h Online-Ressource |w (DE-627)306313944 |w (DE-600)1495994-X |w (DE-576)256144931 |x 0141-1187 |7 nnns |
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10.1016/j.apor.2020.102190 doi (DE-627)ELV004515838 (ELSEVIER)S0141-1187(19)30896-X DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng 550 570 DE-600 BIODIV DE-30 fid 38.90 bkl 50.92 bkl 56.30 bkl Xie, Qimiao verfasserin aut Uncertainty analysis of passenger evacuation time for ships’ safe return to port in fires using polynomial chaos expansion with Gauss quadrature 2020 nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier With the rapid development of water transportation and tourism, safe return to port is required by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) for passenger ships subject to fires. In order to ensure the life safety of passengers, a quantitative analysis method based on polynomial chaos expansion with Gauss quadrature is developed to address the uncertainty of passenger evacuation time for ships’ safe return to port in fires. To illustrate the proposed method, passenger evacuation in a hypothetical main vertical zone of ships is analyzed in this paper. The results indicate that the proposed method can be used to quantify the uncertainty of evacuation time for ships’ safe return to port, significantly reducing the number of evaluation samples. In addition, evacuation times approximately follow normal and lognormal distributions when the initial passenger density is normally distributed. Moreover, for a certain safety level, the safety factor of evacuation time in the day should be larger than that in the night, which depends on its coefficient of variation. For the calculation of evacuation time, the feasibility of the safety factor 1.25 recommended in MSC.1/Circ.1533 is examined as well. Furthermore, the effects of evacuation exit on the expansion degree of the surrogate model, distribution type and the coefficient of variation of travel time are negligible, while it has a significant influence on distribution parameters of travel time. This work will provide a methodology to facilitate the fire safety design of passenger ships. Ship fires Evacuation time Surrogate model Uncertainty analysis Safety factor Evacuation analysis Li, Shanshan verfasserin aut Ma, Chao verfasserin aut Wang, Jinhui verfasserin aut Liu, Jiahao verfasserin aut Wang, Yu verfasserin aut Enthalten in Applied ocean research Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier Science, 1979 101 Online-Ressource (DE-627)306313944 (DE-600)1495994-X (DE-576)256144931 0141-1187 nnns volume:101 GBV_USEFLAG_U SYSFLAG_U GBV_ELV FID-BIODIV SSG-OLC-PHA SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_101 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 38.90 Ozeanologie Ozeanographie 50.92 Meerestechnik 56.30 Wasserbau AR 101 |
| spelling |
10.1016/j.apor.2020.102190 doi (DE-627)ELV004515838 (ELSEVIER)S0141-1187(19)30896-X DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng 550 570 DE-600 BIODIV DE-30 fid 38.90 bkl 50.92 bkl 56.30 bkl Xie, Qimiao verfasserin aut Uncertainty analysis of passenger evacuation time for ships’ safe return to port in fires using polynomial chaos expansion with Gauss quadrature 2020 nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier With the rapid development of water transportation and tourism, safe return to port is required by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) for passenger ships subject to fires. In order to ensure the life safety of passengers, a quantitative analysis method based on polynomial chaos expansion with Gauss quadrature is developed to address the uncertainty of passenger evacuation time for ships’ safe return to port in fires. To illustrate the proposed method, passenger evacuation in a hypothetical main vertical zone of ships is analyzed in this paper. The results indicate that the proposed method can be used to quantify the uncertainty of evacuation time for ships’ safe return to port, significantly reducing the number of evaluation samples. In addition, evacuation times approximately follow normal and lognormal distributions when the initial passenger density is normally distributed. Moreover, for a certain safety level, the safety factor of evacuation time in the day should be larger than that in the night, which depends on its coefficient of variation. For the calculation of evacuation time, the feasibility of the safety factor 1.25 recommended in MSC.1/Circ.1533 is examined as well. Furthermore, the effects of evacuation exit on the expansion degree of the surrogate model, distribution type and the coefficient of variation of travel time are negligible, while it has a significant influence on distribution parameters of travel time. This work will provide a methodology to facilitate the fire safety design of passenger ships. Ship fires Evacuation time Surrogate model Uncertainty analysis Safety factor Evacuation analysis Li, Shanshan verfasserin aut Ma, Chao verfasserin aut Wang, Jinhui verfasserin aut Liu, Jiahao verfasserin aut Wang, Yu verfasserin aut Enthalten in Applied ocean research Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier Science, 1979 101 Online-Ressource (DE-627)306313944 (DE-600)1495994-X (DE-576)256144931 0141-1187 nnns volume:101 GBV_USEFLAG_U SYSFLAG_U GBV_ELV FID-BIODIV SSG-OLC-PHA SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_101 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 38.90 Ozeanologie Ozeanographie 50.92 Meerestechnik 56.30 Wasserbau AR 101 |
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10.1016/j.apor.2020.102190 doi (DE-627)ELV004515838 (ELSEVIER)S0141-1187(19)30896-X DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng 550 570 DE-600 BIODIV DE-30 fid 38.90 bkl 50.92 bkl 56.30 bkl Xie, Qimiao verfasserin aut Uncertainty analysis of passenger evacuation time for ships’ safe return to port in fires using polynomial chaos expansion with Gauss quadrature 2020 nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier With the rapid development of water transportation and tourism, safe return to port is required by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) for passenger ships subject to fires. In order to ensure the life safety of passengers, a quantitative analysis method based on polynomial chaos expansion with Gauss quadrature is developed to address the uncertainty of passenger evacuation time for ships’ safe return to port in fires. To illustrate the proposed method, passenger evacuation in a hypothetical main vertical zone of ships is analyzed in this paper. The results indicate that the proposed method can be used to quantify the uncertainty of evacuation time for ships’ safe return to port, significantly reducing the number of evaluation samples. In addition, evacuation times approximately follow normal and lognormal distributions when the initial passenger density is normally distributed. Moreover, for a certain safety level, the safety factor of evacuation time in the day should be larger than that in the night, which depends on its coefficient of variation. For the calculation of evacuation time, the feasibility of the safety factor 1.25 recommended in MSC.1/Circ.1533 is examined as well. Furthermore, the effects of evacuation exit on the expansion degree of the surrogate model, distribution type and the coefficient of variation of travel time are negligible, while it has a significant influence on distribution parameters of travel time. This work will provide a methodology to facilitate the fire safety design of passenger ships. Ship fires Evacuation time Surrogate model Uncertainty analysis Safety factor Evacuation analysis Li, Shanshan verfasserin aut Ma, Chao verfasserin aut Wang, Jinhui verfasserin aut Liu, Jiahao verfasserin aut Wang, Yu verfasserin aut Enthalten in Applied ocean research Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier Science, 1979 101 Online-Ressource (DE-627)306313944 (DE-600)1495994-X (DE-576)256144931 0141-1187 nnns volume:101 GBV_USEFLAG_U SYSFLAG_U GBV_ELV FID-BIODIV SSG-OLC-PHA SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_101 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 38.90 Ozeanologie Ozeanographie 50.92 Meerestechnik 56.30 Wasserbau AR 101 |
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10.1016/j.apor.2020.102190 doi (DE-627)ELV004515838 (ELSEVIER)S0141-1187(19)30896-X DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng 550 570 DE-600 BIODIV DE-30 fid 38.90 bkl 50.92 bkl 56.30 bkl Xie, Qimiao verfasserin aut Uncertainty analysis of passenger evacuation time for ships’ safe return to port in fires using polynomial chaos expansion with Gauss quadrature 2020 nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier With the rapid development of water transportation and tourism, safe return to port is required by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) for passenger ships subject to fires. In order to ensure the life safety of passengers, a quantitative analysis method based on polynomial chaos expansion with Gauss quadrature is developed to address the uncertainty of passenger evacuation time for ships’ safe return to port in fires. To illustrate the proposed method, passenger evacuation in a hypothetical main vertical zone of ships is analyzed in this paper. The results indicate that the proposed method can be used to quantify the uncertainty of evacuation time for ships’ safe return to port, significantly reducing the number of evaluation samples. In addition, evacuation times approximately follow normal and lognormal distributions when the initial passenger density is normally distributed. Moreover, for a certain safety level, the safety factor of evacuation time in the day should be larger than that in the night, which depends on its coefficient of variation. For the calculation of evacuation time, the feasibility of the safety factor 1.25 recommended in MSC.1/Circ.1533 is examined as well. Furthermore, the effects of evacuation exit on the expansion degree of the surrogate model, distribution type and the coefficient of variation of travel time are negligible, while it has a significant influence on distribution parameters of travel time. This work will provide a methodology to facilitate the fire safety design of passenger ships. Ship fires Evacuation time Surrogate model Uncertainty analysis Safety factor Evacuation analysis Li, Shanshan verfasserin aut Ma, Chao verfasserin aut Wang, Jinhui verfasserin aut Liu, Jiahao verfasserin aut Wang, Yu verfasserin aut Enthalten in Applied ocean research Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier Science, 1979 101 Online-Ressource (DE-627)306313944 (DE-600)1495994-X (DE-576)256144931 0141-1187 nnns volume:101 GBV_USEFLAG_U SYSFLAG_U GBV_ELV FID-BIODIV SSG-OLC-PHA SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_101 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 38.90 Ozeanologie Ozeanographie 50.92 Meerestechnik 56.30 Wasserbau AR 101 |
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10.1016/j.apor.2020.102190 doi (DE-627)ELV004515838 (ELSEVIER)S0141-1187(19)30896-X DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng 550 570 DE-600 BIODIV DE-30 fid 38.90 bkl 50.92 bkl 56.30 bkl Xie, Qimiao verfasserin aut Uncertainty analysis of passenger evacuation time for ships’ safe return to port in fires using polynomial chaos expansion with Gauss quadrature 2020 nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier With the rapid development of water transportation and tourism, safe return to port is required by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) for passenger ships subject to fires. In order to ensure the life safety of passengers, a quantitative analysis method based on polynomial chaos expansion with Gauss quadrature is developed to address the uncertainty of passenger evacuation time for ships’ safe return to port in fires. To illustrate the proposed method, passenger evacuation in a hypothetical main vertical zone of ships is analyzed in this paper. The results indicate that the proposed method can be used to quantify the uncertainty of evacuation time for ships’ safe return to port, significantly reducing the number of evaluation samples. In addition, evacuation times approximately follow normal and lognormal distributions when the initial passenger density is normally distributed. Moreover, for a certain safety level, the safety factor of evacuation time in the day should be larger than that in the night, which depends on its coefficient of variation. For the calculation of evacuation time, the feasibility of the safety factor 1.25 recommended in MSC.1/Circ.1533 is examined as well. Furthermore, the effects of evacuation exit on the expansion degree of the surrogate model, distribution type and the coefficient of variation of travel time are negligible, while it has a significant influence on distribution parameters of travel time. This work will provide a methodology to facilitate the fire safety design of passenger ships. Ship fires Evacuation time Surrogate model Uncertainty analysis Safety factor Evacuation analysis Li, Shanshan verfasserin aut Ma, Chao verfasserin aut Wang, Jinhui verfasserin aut Liu, Jiahao verfasserin aut Wang, Yu verfasserin aut Enthalten in Applied ocean research Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier Science, 1979 101 Online-Ressource (DE-627)306313944 (DE-600)1495994-X (DE-576)256144931 0141-1187 nnns volume:101 GBV_USEFLAG_U SYSFLAG_U GBV_ELV FID-BIODIV SSG-OLC-PHA SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_101 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 38.90 Ozeanologie Ozeanographie 50.92 Meerestechnik 56.30 Wasserbau AR 101 |
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Xie, Qimiao @@aut@@ Li, Shanshan @@aut@@ Ma, Chao @@aut@@ Wang, Jinhui @@aut@@ Liu, Jiahao @@aut@@ Wang, Yu @@aut@@ |
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Xie, Qimiao ddc 550 fid BIODIV bkl 38.90 bkl 50.92 bkl 56.30 misc Ship fires misc Evacuation time misc Surrogate model misc Uncertainty analysis misc Safety factor misc Evacuation analysis Uncertainty analysis of passenger evacuation time for ships’ safe return to port in fires using polynomial chaos expansion with Gauss quadrature |
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550 570 DE-600 BIODIV DE-30 fid 38.90 bkl 50.92 bkl 56.30 bkl Uncertainty analysis of passenger evacuation time for ships’ safe return to port in fires using polynomial chaos expansion with Gauss quadrature Ship fires Evacuation time Surrogate model Uncertainty analysis Safety factor Evacuation analysis |
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ddc 550 fid BIODIV bkl 38.90 bkl 50.92 bkl 56.30 misc Ship fires misc Evacuation time misc Surrogate model misc Uncertainty analysis misc Safety factor misc Evacuation analysis |
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ddc 550 fid BIODIV bkl 38.90 bkl 50.92 bkl 56.30 misc Ship fires misc Evacuation time misc Surrogate model misc Uncertainty analysis misc Safety factor misc Evacuation analysis |
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ddc 550 fid BIODIV bkl 38.90 bkl 50.92 bkl 56.30 misc Ship fires misc Evacuation time misc Surrogate model misc Uncertainty analysis misc Safety factor misc Evacuation analysis |
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Uncertainty analysis of passenger evacuation time for ships’ safe return to port in fires using polynomial chaos expansion with Gauss quadrature |
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Uncertainty analysis of passenger evacuation time for ships’ safe return to port in fires using polynomial chaos expansion with Gauss quadrature |
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Xie, Qimiao Li, Shanshan Ma, Chao Wang, Jinhui Liu, Jiahao Wang, Yu |
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uncertainty analysis of passenger evacuation time for ships’ safe return to port in fires using polynomial chaos expansion with gauss quadrature |
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Uncertainty analysis of passenger evacuation time for ships’ safe return to port in fires using polynomial chaos expansion with Gauss quadrature |
| abstract |
With the rapid development of water transportation and tourism, safe return to port is required by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) for passenger ships subject to fires. In order to ensure the life safety of passengers, a quantitative analysis method based on polynomial chaos expansion with Gauss quadrature is developed to address the uncertainty of passenger evacuation time for ships’ safe return to port in fires. To illustrate the proposed method, passenger evacuation in a hypothetical main vertical zone of ships is analyzed in this paper. The results indicate that the proposed method can be used to quantify the uncertainty of evacuation time for ships’ safe return to port, significantly reducing the number of evaluation samples. In addition, evacuation times approximately follow normal and lognormal distributions when the initial passenger density is normally distributed. Moreover, for a certain safety level, the safety factor of evacuation time in the day should be larger than that in the night, which depends on its coefficient of variation. For the calculation of evacuation time, the feasibility of the safety factor 1.25 recommended in MSC.1/Circ.1533 is examined as well. Furthermore, the effects of evacuation exit on the expansion degree of the surrogate model, distribution type and the coefficient of variation of travel time are negligible, while it has a significant influence on distribution parameters of travel time. This work will provide a methodology to facilitate the fire safety design of passenger ships. |
| abstractGer |
With the rapid development of water transportation and tourism, safe return to port is required by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) for passenger ships subject to fires. In order to ensure the life safety of passengers, a quantitative analysis method based on polynomial chaos expansion with Gauss quadrature is developed to address the uncertainty of passenger evacuation time for ships’ safe return to port in fires. To illustrate the proposed method, passenger evacuation in a hypothetical main vertical zone of ships is analyzed in this paper. The results indicate that the proposed method can be used to quantify the uncertainty of evacuation time for ships’ safe return to port, significantly reducing the number of evaluation samples. In addition, evacuation times approximately follow normal and lognormal distributions when the initial passenger density is normally distributed. Moreover, for a certain safety level, the safety factor of evacuation time in the day should be larger than that in the night, which depends on its coefficient of variation. For the calculation of evacuation time, the feasibility of the safety factor 1.25 recommended in MSC.1/Circ.1533 is examined as well. Furthermore, the effects of evacuation exit on the expansion degree of the surrogate model, distribution type and the coefficient of variation of travel time are negligible, while it has a significant influence on distribution parameters of travel time. This work will provide a methodology to facilitate the fire safety design of passenger ships. |
| abstract_unstemmed |
With the rapid development of water transportation and tourism, safe return to port is required by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) for passenger ships subject to fires. In order to ensure the life safety of passengers, a quantitative analysis method based on polynomial chaos expansion with Gauss quadrature is developed to address the uncertainty of passenger evacuation time for ships’ safe return to port in fires. To illustrate the proposed method, passenger evacuation in a hypothetical main vertical zone of ships is analyzed in this paper. The results indicate that the proposed method can be used to quantify the uncertainty of evacuation time for ships’ safe return to port, significantly reducing the number of evaluation samples. In addition, evacuation times approximately follow normal and lognormal distributions when the initial passenger density is normally distributed. Moreover, for a certain safety level, the safety factor of evacuation time in the day should be larger than that in the night, which depends on its coefficient of variation. For the calculation of evacuation time, the feasibility of the safety factor 1.25 recommended in MSC.1/Circ.1533 is examined as well. Furthermore, the effects of evacuation exit on the expansion degree of the surrogate model, distribution type and the coefficient of variation of travel time are negligible, while it has a significant influence on distribution parameters of travel time. This work will provide a methodology to facilitate the fire safety design of passenger ships. |
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Uncertainty analysis of passenger evacuation time for ships’ safe return to port in fires using polynomial chaos expansion with Gauss quadrature |
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|
| score |
7.401886 |