Choosing small sets of policy-relevant scenarios by combining vulnerability and diversity approaches
Computer simulation models can generate large numbers of scenarios, far more than can be effectively utilized in most decision support applications. How can one best select a small number of scenarios to consider? One approach calls for choosing scenarios that illuminate vulnerabilities of proposed...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Gespeichert in:
| Autor*in: |
Carlsen, Henrik [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
E-Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2016transfer abstract |
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| Schlagwörter: |
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| Umfang: |
10 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Long term evolution of Molniya orbit under the effect of Earth’s non-spherical gravitational perturbation - Zhu, Ting-Lei ELSEVIER, 2014, Amsterdam [u.a.] |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:84 ; year:2016 ; pages:155-164 ; extent:10 |
| Links: |
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| DOI / URN: |
10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.06.011 |
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ELV029468752 |
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| 520 | |a Computer simulation models can generate large numbers of scenarios, far more than can be effectively utilized in most decision support applications. How can one best select a small number of scenarios to consider? One approach calls for choosing scenarios that illuminate vulnerabilities of proposed policies. Another calls for choosing scenarios that span a diverse range of futures. This paper joins these two approaches for the first time, proposing an optimization-based method for choosing a small number of relevant scenarios that combine both vulnerability and diversity. The paper applies the method to a real case involving climate resilient infrastructure for three African river basins (Volta, Orange and Zambezi). Introducing selection criteria in a stepwise manner helps examine how different criteria influence the choice of scenarios. The results suggest that combining vulnerability- and diversity-based criteria can provide a systematic and transparent method for scenario selection. | ||
| 520 | |a Computer simulation models can generate large numbers of scenarios, far more than can be effectively utilized in most decision support applications. How can one best select a small number of scenarios to consider? One approach calls for choosing scenarios that illuminate vulnerabilities of proposed policies. Another calls for choosing scenarios that span a diverse range of futures. This paper joins these two approaches for the first time, proposing an optimization-based method for choosing a small number of relevant scenarios that combine both vulnerability and diversity. The paper applies the method to a real case involving climate resilient infrastructure for three African river basins (Volta, Orange and Zambezi). Introducing selection criteria in a stepwise manner helps examine how different criteria influence the choice of scenarios. The results suggest that combining vulnerability- and diversity-based criteria can provide a systematic and transparent method for scenario selection. | ||
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| 650 | 7 | |a Scenario diversity analysis |2 Elsevier | |
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| 650 | 7 | |a Vulnerability based scenario analysis |2 Elsevier | |
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10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.06.011 doi GBVA2016002000020.pica (DE-627)ELV029468752 (ELSEVIER)S1364-8152(16)30241-9 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 690 004 690 DE-600 004 DE-600 520 VZ 620 VZ 610 570 VZ 44.89 bkl Carlsen, Henrik verfasserin aut Choosing small sets of policy-relevant scenarios by combining vulnerability and diversity approaches 2016transfer abstract 10 nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent nicht spezifiziert z rdamedia nicht spezifiziert zu rdacarrier Computer simulation models can generate large numbers of scenarios, far more than can be effectively utilized in most decision support applications. How can one best select a small number of scenarios to consider? One approach calls for choosing scenarios that illuminate vulnerabilities of proposed policies. Another calls for choosing scenarios that span a diverse range of futures. This paper joins these two approaches for the first time, proposing an optimization-based method for choosing a small number of relevant scenarios that combine both vulnerability and diversity. The paper applies the method to a real case involving climate resilient infrastructure for three African river basins (Volta, Orange and Zambezi). Introducing selection criteria in a stepwise manner helps examine how different criteria influence the choice of scenarios. The results suggest that combining vulnerability- and diversity-based criteria can provide a systematic and transparent method for scenario selection. Computer simulation models can generate large numbers of scenarios, far more than can be effectively utilized in most decision support applications. How can one best select a small number of scenarios to consider? One approach calls for choosing scenarios that illuminate vulnerabilities of proposed policies. Another calls for choosing scenarios that span a diverse range of futures. This paper joins these two approaches for the first time, proposing an optimization-based method for choosing a small number of relevant scenarios that combine both vulnerability and diversity. The paper applies the method to a real case involving climate resilient infrastructure for three African river basins (Volta, Orange and Zambezi). Introducing selection criteria in a stepwise manner helps examine how different criteria influence the choice of scenarios. The results suggest that combining vulnerability- and diversity-based criteria can provide a systematic and transparent method for scenario selection. Robust decision making Elsevier Scenario diversity analysis Elsevier Climate change Elsevier Scenario discovery Elsevier Vulnerability based scenario analysis Elsevier Lempert, Robert oth Wikman-Svahn, Per oth Schweizer, Vanessa oth Enthalten in Elsevier Science Zhu, Ting-Lei ELSEVIER Long term evolution of Molniya orbit under the effect of Earth’s non-spherical gravitational perturbation 2014 Amsterdam [u.a.] (DE-627)ELV017414318 volume:84 year:2016 pages:155-164 extent:10 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.06.011 Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ELV SYSFLAG_U SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_70 44.89 Endokrinologie VZ AR 84 2016 155-164 10 045F 690 |
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10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.06.011 doi GBVA2016002000020.pica (DE-627)ELV029468752 (ELSEVIER)S1364-8152(16)30241-9 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 690 004 690 DE-600 004 DE-600 520 VZ 620 VZ 610 570 VZ 44.89 bkl Carlsen, Henrik verfasserin aut Choosing small sets of policy-relevant scenarios by combining vulnerability and diversity approaches 2016transfer abstract 10 nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent nicht spezifiziert z rdamedia nicht spezifiziert zu rdacarrier Computer simulation models can generate large numbers of scenarios, far more than can be effectively utilized in most decision support applications. How can one best select a small number of scenarios to consider? One approach calls for choosing scenarios that illuminate vulnerabilities of proposed policies. Another calls for choosing scenarios that span a diverse range of futures. This paper joins these two approaches for the first time, proposing an optimization-based method for choosing a small number of relevant scenarios that combine both vulnerability and diversity. The paper applies the method to a real case involving climate resilient infrastructure for three African river basins (Volta, Orange and Zambezi). Introducing selection criteria in a stepwise manner helps examine how different criteria influence the choice of scenarios. The results suggest that combining vulnerability- and diversity-based criteria can provide a systematic and transparent method for scenario selection. Computer simulation models can generate large numbers of scenarios, far more than can be effectively utilized in most decision support applications. How can one best select a small number of scenarios to consider? One approach calls for choosing scenarios that illuminate vulnerabilities of proposed policies. Another calls for choosing scenarios that span a diverse range of futures. This paper joins these two approaches for the first time, proposing an optimization-based method for choosing a small number of relevant scenarios that combine both vulnerability and diversity. The paper applies the method to a real case involving climate resilient infrastructure for three African river basins (Volta, Orange and Zambezi). Introducing selection criteria in a stepwise manner helps examine how different criteria influence the choice of scenarios. The results suggest that combining vulnerability- and diversity-based criteria can provide a systematic and transparent method for scenario selection. Robust decision making Elsevier Scenario diversity analysis Elsevier Climate change Elsevier Scenario discovery Elsevier Vulnerability based scenario analysis Elsevier Lempert, Robert oth Wikman-Svahn, Per oth Schweizer, Vanessa oth Enthalten in Elsevier Science Zhu, Ting-Lei ELSEVIER Long term evolution of Molniya orbit under the effect of Earth’s non-spherical gravitational perturbation 2014 Amsterdam [u.a.] (DE-627)ELV017414318 volume:84 year:2016 pages:155-164 extent:10 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.06.011 Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ELV SYSFLAG_U SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_70 44.89 Endokrinologie VZ AR 84 2016 155-164 10 045F 690 |
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10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.06.011 doi GBVA2016002000020.pica (DE-627)ELV029468752 (ELSEVIER)S1364-8152(16)30241-9 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 690 004 690 DE-600 004 DE-600 520 VZ 620 VZ 610 570 VZ 44.89 bkl Carlsen, Henrik verfasserin aut Choosing small sets of policy-relevant scenarios by combining vulnerability and diversity approaches 2016transfer abstract 10 nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent nicht spezifiziert z rdamedia nicht spezifiziert zu rdacarrier Computer simulation models can generate large numbers of scenarios, far more than can be effectively utilized in most decision support applications. How can one best select a small number of scenarios to consider? One approach calls for choosing scenarios that illuminate vulnerabilities of proposed policies. Another calls for choosing scenarios that span a diverse range of futures. This paper joins these two approaches for the first time, proposing an optimization-based method for choosing a small number of relevant scenarios that combine both vulnerability and diversity. The paper applies the method to a real case involving climate resilient infrastructure for three African river basins (Volta, Orange and Zambezi). Introducing selection criteria in a stepwise manner helps examine how different criteria influence the choice of scenarios. The results suggest that combining vulnerability- and diversity-based criteria can provide a systematic and transparent method for scenario selection. Computer simulation models can generate large numbers of scenarios, far more than can be effectively utilized in most decision support applications. How can one best select a small number of scenarios to consider? One approach calls for choosing scenarios that illuminate vulnerabilities of proposed policies. Another calls for choosing scenarios that span a diverse range of futures. This paper joins these two approaches for the first time, proposing an optimization-based method for choosing a small number of relevant scenarios that combine both vulnerability and diversity. The paper applies the method to a real case involving climate resilient infrastructure for three African river basins (Volta, Orange and Zambezi). Introducing selection criteria in a stepwise manner helps examine how different criteria influence the choice of scenarios. The results suggest that combining vulnerability- and diversity-based criteria can provide a systematic and transparent method for scenario selection. Robust decision making Elsevier Scenario diversity analysis Elsevier Climate change Elsevier Scenario discovery Elsevier Vulnerability based scenario analysis Elsevier Lempert, Robert oth Wikman-Svahn, Per oth Schweizer, Vanessa oth Enthalten in Elsevier Science Zhu, Ting-Lei ELSEVIER Long term evolution of Molniya orbit under the effect of Earth’s non-spherical gravitational perturbation 2014 Amsterdam [u.a.] (DE-627)ELV017414318 volume:84 year:2016 pages:155-164 extent:10 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.06.011 Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ELV SYSFLAG_U SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_70 44.89 Endokrinologie VZ AR 84 2016 155-164 10 045F 690 |
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Long term evolution of Molniya orbit under the effect of Earth’s non-spherical gravitational perturbation |
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Choosing small sets of policy-relevant scenarios by combining vulnerability and diversity approaches |
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Long term evolution of Molniya orbit under the effect of Earth’s non-spherical gravitational perturbation |
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choosing small sets of policy-relevant scenarios by combining vulnerability and diversity approaches |
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Choosing small sets of policy-relevant scenarios by combining vulnerability and diversity approaches |
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Computer simulation models can generate large numbers of scenarios, far more than can be effectively utilized in most decision support applications. How can one best select a small number of scenarios to consider? One approach calls for choosing scenarios that illuminate vulnerabilities of proposed policies. Another calls for choosing scenarios that span a diverse range of futures. This paper joins these two approaches for the first time, proposing an optimization-based method for choosing a small number of relevant scenarios that combine both vulnerability and diversity. The paper applies the method to a real case involving climate resilient infrastructure for three African river basins (Volta, Orange and Zambezi). Introducing selection criteria in a stepwise manner helps examine how different criteria influence the choice of scenarios. The results suggest that combining vulnerability- and diversity-based criteria can provide a systematic and transparent method for scenario selection. |
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Computer simulation models can generate large numbers of scenarios, far more than can be effectively utilized in most decision support applications. How can one best select a small number of scenarios to consider? One approach calls for choosing scenarios that illuminate vulnerabilities of proposed policies. Another calls for choosing scenarios that span a diverse range of futures. This paper joins these two approaches for the first time, proposing an optimization-based method for choosing a small number of relevant scenarios that combine both vulnerability and diversity. The paper applies the method to a real case involving climate resilient infrastructure for three African river basins (Volta, Orange and Zambezi). Introducing selection criteria in a stepwise manner helps examine how different criteria influence the choice of scenarios. The results suggest that combining vulnerability- and diversity-based criteria can provide a systematic and transparent method for scenario selection. |
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Computer simulation models can generate large numbers of scenarios, far more than can be effectively utilized in most decision support applications. How can one best select a small number of scenarios to consider? One approach calls for choosing scenarios that illuminate vulnerabilities of proposed policies. Another calls for choosing scenarios that span a diverse range of futures. This paper joins these two approaches for the first time, proposing an optimization-based method for choosing a small number of relevant scenarios that combine both vulnerability and diversity. The paper applies the method to a real case involving climate resilient infrastructure for three African river basins (Volta, Orange and Zambezi). Introducing selection criteria in a stepwise manner helps examine how different criteria influence the choice of scenarios. The results suggest that combining vulnerability- and diversity-based criteria can provide a systematic and transparent method for scenario selection. |
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Choosing small sets of policy-relevant scenarios by combining vulnerability and diversity approaches |
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Lempert, Robert Wikman-Svahn, Per Schweizer, Vanessa |
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