A novel process economics risk model applied to biodiesel production system
In this paper, the concept of value at risk (VAR) is introduced to study process economics related to biodiesel production and use. Although the VAR concept is actively used in financial engineering for stock investment and trading, it has never been used in process economics. A methodology to devel...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Gespeichert in:
| Autor*in: |
Sajid, Zaman [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
E-Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2018transfer abstract |
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| Schlagwörter: |
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| Umfang: |
12 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Technologies and practice of CO - HU, Yongle ELSEVIER, 2019, an international journal : the official journal of WREN, The World Renewable Energy Network, Amsterdam [u.a.] |
|---|---|
| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:118 ; year:2018 ; pages:615-626 ; extent:12 |
| Links: |
|---|
| DOI / URN: |
10.1016/j.renene.2017.11.022 |
|---|
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ELV041445074 |
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| 520 | |a In this paper, the concept of value at risk (VAR) is introduced to study process economics related to biodiesel production and use. Although the VAR concept is actively used in financial engineering for stock investment and trading, it has never been used in process economics. A methodology to develop a VAR model for a biodiesel process facility has been proposed and analysed. The impact of different cost related risk factors is modelled using a stochastic process and interdependence in a Bayesian Network format. The analysis reveals that cost underestimation is the most significant risk factor in biodiesel economics. The VAR model is analysed for 1, 5, and 10 VAR for 5 years of plant operations. Analysing VAR at any point of time (i.e. year 2) shows that with a 1% chance, 5% chance and 10% chance, the maximum loss would be $6.26, $9.52 and $11.34 million respectively (up to year 2). When VAR is considered in the process economics the return period is significantly affected and is increased by 21 months. This study recommends that VAR should be considered as an integral part of process economics, especially for new product or process design. | ||
| 520 | |a In this paper, the concept of value at risk (VAR) is introduced to study process economics related to biodiesel production and use. Although the VAR concept is actively used in financial engineering for stock investment and trading, it has never been used in process economics. A methodology to develop a VAR model for a biodiesel process facility has been proposed and analysed. The impact of different cost related risk factors is modelled using a stochastic process and interdependence in a Bayesian Network format. The analysis reveals that cost underestimation is the most significant risk factor in biodiesel economics. The VAR model is analysed for 1, 5, and 10 VAR for 5 years of plant operations. Analysing VAR at any point of time (i.e. year 2) shows that with a 1% chance, 5% chance and 10% chance, the maximum loss would be $6.26, $9.52 and $11.34 million respectively (up to year 2). When VAR is considered in the process economics the return period is significantly affected and is increased by 21 months. This study recommends that VAR should be considered as an integral part of process economics, especially for new product or process design. | ||
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10.1016/j.renene.2017.11.022 doi GBV00000000000420.pica (DE-627)ELV041445074 (ELSEVIER)S0960-1481(17)31124-2 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Sajid, Zaman verfasserin aut A novel process economics risk model applied to biodiesel production system 2018transfer abstract 12 nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent nicht spezifiziert z rdamedia nicht spezifiziert zu rdacarrier In this paper, the concept of value at risk (VAR) is introduced to study process economics related to biodiesel production and use. Although the VAR concept is actively used in financial engineering for stock investment and trading, it has never been used in process economics. A methodology to develop a VAR model for a biodiesel process facility has been proposed and analysed. The impact of different cost related risk factors is modelled using a stochastic process and interdependence in a Bayesian Network format. The analysis reveals that cost underestimation is the most significant risk factor in biodiesel economics. The VAR model is analysed for 1, 5, and 10 VAR for 5 years of plant operations. Analysing VAR at any point of time (i.e. year 2) shows that with a 1% chance, 5% chance and 10% chance, the maximum loss would be $6.26, $9.52 and $11.34 million respectively (up to year 2). When VAR is considered in the process economics the return period is significantly affected and is increased by 21 months. This study recommends that VAR should be considered as an integral part of process economics, especially for new product or process design. In this paper, the concept of value at risk (VAR) is introduced to study process economics related to biodiesel production and use. Although the VAR concept is actively used in financial engineering for stock investment and trading, it has never been used in process economics. A methodology to develop a VAR model for a biodiesel process facility has been proposed and analysed. The impact of different cost related risk factors is modelled using a stochastic process and interdependence in a Bayesian Network format. The analysis reveals that cost underestimation is the most significant risk factor in biodiesel economics. The VAR model is analysed for 1, 5, and 10 VAR for 5 years of plant operations. Analysing VAR at any point of time (i.e. year 2) shows that with a 1% chance, 5% chance and 10% chance, the maximum loss would be $6.26, $9.52 and $11.34 million respectively (up to year 2). When VAR is considered in the process economics the return period is significantly affected and is increased by 21 months. This study recommends that VAR should be considered as an integral part of process economics, especially for new product or process design. Risk model Elsevier Value at risk Elsevier Biodiesel production Elsevier Interpretive structural modelling Elsevier Process economics Elsevier Khan, Faisal oth Zhang, Yan oth Enthalten in Elsevier Science HU, Yongle ELSEVIER Technologies and practice of CO 2019 an international journal : the official journal of WREN, The World Renewable Energy Network Amsterdam [u.a.] (DE-627)ELV002723662 volume:118 year:2018 pages:615-626 extent:12 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2017.11.022 Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ELV SYSFLAG_U AR 118 2018 615-626 12 |
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10.1016/j.renene.2017.11.022 doi GBV00000000000420.pica (DE-627)ELV041445074 (ELSEVIER)S0960-1481(17)31124-2 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Sajid, Zaman verfasserin aut A novel process economics risk model applied to biodiesel production system 2018transfer abstract 12 nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent nicht spezifiziert z rdamedia nicht spezifiziert zu rdacarrier In this paper, the concept of value at risk (VAR) is introduced to study process economics related to biodiesel production and use. Although the VAR concept is actively used in financial engineering for stock investment and trading, it has never been used in process economics. A methodology to develop a VAR model for a biodiesel process facility has been proposed and analysed. The impact of different cost related risk factors is modelled using a stochastic process and interdependence in a Bayesian Network format. The analysis reveals that cost underestimation is the most significant risk factor in biodiesel economics. The VAR model is analysed for 1, 5, and 10 VAR for 5 years of plant operations. Analysing VAR at any point of time (i.e. year 2) shows that with a 1% chance, 5% chance and 10% chance, the maximum loss would be $6.26, $9.52 and $11.34 million respectively (up to year 2). When VAR is considered in the process economics the return period is significantly affected and is increased by 21 months. This study recommends that VAR should be considered as an integral part of process economics, especially for new product or process design. In this paper, the concept of value at risk (VAR) is introduced to study process economics related to biodiesel production and use. Although the VAR concept is actively used in financial engineering for stock investment and trading, it has never been used in process economics. A methodology to develop a VAR model for a biodiesel process facility has been proposed and analysed. The impact of different cost related risk factors is modelled using a stochastic process and interdependence in a Bayesian Network format. The analysis reveals that cost underestimation is the most significant risk factor in biodiesel economics. The VAR model is analysed for 1, 5, and 10 VAR for 5 years of plant operations. Analysing VAR at any point of time (i.e. year 2) shows that with a 1% chance, 5% chance and 10% chance, the maximum loss would be $6.26, $9.52 and $11.34 million respectively (up to year 2). When VAR is considered in the process economics the return period is significantly affected and is increased by 21 months. This study recommends that VAR should be considered as an integral part of process economics, especially for new product or process design. Risk model Elsevier Value at risk Elsevier Biodiesel production Elsevier Interpretive structural modelling Elsevier Process economics Elsevier Khan, Faisal oth Zhang, Yan oth Enthalten in Elsevier Science HU, Yongle ELSEVIER Technologies and practice of CO 2019 an international journal : the official journal of WREN, The World Renewable Energy Network Amsterdam [u.a.] (DE-627)ELV002723662 volume:118 year:2018 pages:615-626 extent:12 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2017.11.022 Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ELV SYSFLAG_U AR 118 2018 615-626 12 |
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10.1016/j.renene.2017.11.022 doi GBV00000000000420.pica (DE-627)ELV041445074 (ELSEVIER)S0960-1481(17)31124-2 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Sajid, Zaman verfasserin aut A novel process economics risk model applied to biodiesel production system 2018transfer abstract 12 nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent nicht spezifiziert z rdamedia nicht spezifiziert zu rdacarrier In this paper, the concept of value at risk (VAR) is introduced to study process economics related to biodiesel production and use. Although the VAR concept is actively used in financial engineering for stock investment and trading, it has never been used in process economics. A methodology to develop a VAR model for a biodiesel process facility has been proposed and analysed. The impact of different cost related risk factors is modelled using a stochastic process and interdependence in a Bayesian Network format. The analysis reveals that cost underestimation is the most significant risk factor in biodiesel economics. The VAR model is analysed for 1, 5, and 10 VAR for 5 years of plant operations. Analysing VAR at any point of time (i.e. year 2) shows that with a 1% chance, 5% chance and 10% chance, the maximum loss would be $6.26, $9.52 and $11.34 million respectively (up to year 2). When VAR is considered in the process economics the return period is significantly affected and is increased by 21 months. This study recommends that VAR should be considered as an integral part of process economics, especially for new product or process design. In this paper, the concept of value at risk (VAR) is introduced to study process economics related to biodiesel production and use. Although the VAR concept is actively used in financial engineering for stock investment and trading, it has never been used in process economics. A methodology to develop a VAR model for a biodiesel process facility has been proposed and analysed. The impact of different cost related risk factors is modelled using a stochastic process and interdependence in a Bayesian Network format. The analysis reveals that cost underestimation is the most significant risk factor in biodiesel economics. The VAR model is analysed for 1, 5, and 10 VAR for 5 years of plant operations. Analysing VAR at any point of time (i.e. year 2) shows that with a 1% chance, 5% chance and 10% chance, the maximum loss would be $6.26, $9.52 and $11.34 million respectively (up to year 2). When VAR is considered in the process economics the return period is significantly affected and is increased by 21 months. This study recommends that VAR should be considered as an integral part of process economics, especially for new product or process design. Risk model Elsevier Value at risk Elsevier Biodiesel production Elsevier Interpretive structural modelling Elsevier Process economics Elsevier Khan, Faisal oth Zhang, Yan oth Enthalten in Elsevier Science HU, Yongle ELSEVIER Technologies and practice of CO 2019 an international journal : the official journal of WREN, The World Renewable Energy Network Amsterdam [u.a.] (DE-627)ELV002723662 volume:118 year:2018 pages:615-626 extent:12 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2017.11.022 Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ELV SYSFLAG_U AR 118 2018 615-626 12 |
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10.1016/j.renene.2017.11.022 doi GBV00000000000420.pica (DE-627)ELV041445074 (ELSEVIER)S0960-1481(17)31124-2 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Sajid, Zaman verfasserin aut A novel process economics risk model applied to biodiesel production system 2018transfer abstract 12 nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent nicht spezifiziert z rdamedia nicht spezifiziert zu rdacarrier In this paper, the concept of value at risk (VAR) is introduced to study process economics related to biodiesel production and use. Although the VAR concept is actively used in financial engineering for stock investment and trading, it has never been used in process economics. A methodology to develop a VAR model for a biodiesel process facility has been proposed and analysed. The impact of different cost related risk factors is modelled using a stochastic process and interdependence in a Bayesian Network format. The analysis reveals that cost underestimation is the most significant risk factor in biodiesel economics. The VAR model is analysed for 1, 5, and 10 VAR for 5 years of plant operations. Analysing VAR at any point of time (i.e. year 2) shows that with a 1% chance, 5% chance and 10% chance, the maximum loss would be $6.26, $9.52 and $11.34 million respectively (up to year 2). When VAR is considered in the process economics the return period is significantly affected and is increased by 21 months. This study recommends that VAR should be considered as an integral part of process economics, especially for new product or process design. In this paper, the concept of value at risk (VAR) is introduced to study process economics related to biodiesel production and use. Although the VAR concept is actively used in financial engineering for stock investment and trading, it has never been used in process economics. A methodology to develop a VAR model for a biodiesel process facility has been proposed and analysed. The impact of different cost related risk factors is modelled using a stochastic process and interdependence in a Bayesian Network format. The analysis reveals that cost underestimation is the most significant risk factor in biodiesel economics. The VAR model is analysed for 1, 5, and 10 VAR for 5 years of plant operations. Analysing VAR at any point of time (i.e. year 2) shows that with a 1% chance, 5% chance and 10% chance, the maximum loss would be $6.26, $9.52 and $11.34 million respectively (up to year 2). When VAR is considered in the process economics the return period is significantly affected and is increased by 21 months. This study recommends that VAR should be considered as an integral part of process economics, especially for new product or process design. Risk model Elsevier Value at risk Elsevier Biodiesel production Elsevier Interpretive structural modelling Elsevier Process economics Elsevier Khan, Faisal oth Zhang, Yan oth Enthalten in Elsevier Science HU, Yongle ELSEVIER Technologies and practice of CO 2019 an international journal : the official journal of WREN, The World Renewable Energy Network Amsterdam [u.a.] (DE-627)ELV002723662 volume:118 year:2018 pages:615-626 extent:12 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2017.11.022 Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ELV SYSFLAG_U AR 118 2018 615-626 12 |
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10.1016/j.renene.2017.11.022 doi GBV00000000000420.pica (DE-627)ELV041445074 (ELSEVIER)S0960-1481(17)31124-2 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Sajid, Zaman verfasserin aut A novel process economics risk model applied to biodiesel production system 2018transfer abstract 12 nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent nicht spezifiziert z rdamedia nicht spezifiziert zu rdacarrier In this paper, the concept of value at risk (VAR) is introduced to study process economics related to biodiesel production and use. Although the VAR concept is actively used in financial engineering for stock investment and trading, it has never been used in process economics. A methodology to develop a VAR model for a biodiesel process facility has been proposed and analysed. The impact of different cost related risk factors is modelled using a stochastic process and interdependence in a Bayesian Network format. The analysis reveals that cost underestimation is the most significant risk factor in biodiesel economics. The VAR model is analysed for 1, 5, and 10 VAR for 5 years of plant operations. Analysing VAR at any point of time (i.e. year 2) shows that with a 1% chance, 5% chance and 10% chance, the maximum loss would be $6.26, $9.52 and $11.34 million respectively (up to year 2). When VAR is considered in the process economics the return period is significantly affected and is increased by 21 months. This study recommends that VAR should be considered as an integral part of process economics, especially for new product or process design. In this paper, the concept of value at risk (VAR) is introduced to study process economics related to biodiesel production and use. Although the VAR concept is actively used in financial engineering for stock investment and trading, it has never been used in process economics. A methodology to develop a VAR model for a biodiesel process facility has been proposed and analysed. The impact of different cost related risk factors is modelled using a stochastic process and interdependence in a Bayesian Network format. The analysis reveals that cost underestimation is the most significant risk factor in biodiesel economics. The VAR model is analysed for 1, 5, and 10 VAR for 5 years of plant operations. Analysing VAR at any point of time (i.e. year 2) shows that with a 1% chance, 5% chance and 10% chance, the maximum loss would be $6.26, $9.52 and $11.34 million respectively (up to year 2). When VAR is considered in the process economics the return period is significantly affected and is increased by 21 months. This study recommends that VAR should be considered as an integral part of process economics, especially for new product or process design. Risk model Elsevier Value at risk Elsevier Biodiesel production Elsevier Interpretive structural modelling Elsevier Process economics Elsevier Khan, Faisal oth Zhang, Yan oth Enthalten in Elsevier Science HU, Yongle ELSEVIER Technologies and practice of CO 2019 an international journal : the official journal of WREN, The World Renewable Energy Network Amsterdam [u.a.] (DE-627)ELV002723662 volume:118 year:2018 pages:615-626 extent:12 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2017.11.022 Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ELV SYSFLAG_U AR 118 2018 615-626 12 |
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A novel process economics risk model applied to biodiesel production system |
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A novel process economics risk model applied to biodiesel production system |
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10.1016/j.renene.2017.11.022 |
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a novel process economics risk model applied to biodiesel production system |
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A novel process economics risk model applied to biodiesel production system |
| abstract |
In this paper, the concept of value at risk (VAR) is introduced to study process economics related to biodiesel production and use. Although the VAR concept is actively used in financial engineering for stock investment and trading, it has never been used in process economics. A methodology to develop a VAR model for a biodiesel process facility has been proposed and analysed. The impact of different cost related risk factors is modelled using a stochastic process and interdependence in a Bayesian Network format. The analysis reveals that cost underestimation is the most significant risk factor in biodiesel economics. The VAR model is analysed for 1, 5, and 10 VAR for 5 years of plant operations. Analysing VAR at any point of time (i.e. year 2) shows that with a 1% chance, 5% chance and 10% chance, the maximum loss would be $6.26, $9.52 and $11.34 million respectively (up to year 2). When VAR is considered in the process economics the return period is significantly affected and is increased by 21 months. This study recommends that VAR should be considered as an integral part of process economics, especially for new product or process design. |
| abstractGer |
In this paper, the concept of value at risk (VAR) is introduced to study process economics related to biodiesel production and use. Although the VAR concept is actively used in financial engineering for stock investment and trading, it has never been used in process economics. A methodology to develop a VAR model for a biodiesel process facility has been proposed and analysed. The impact of different cost related risk factors is modelled using a stochastic process and interdependence in a Bayesian Network format. The analysis reveals that cost underestimation is the most significant risk factor in biodiesel economics. The VAR model is analysed for 1, 5, and 10 VAR for 5 years of plant operations. Analysing VAR at any point of time (i.e. year 2) shows that with a 1% chance, 5% chance and 10% chance, the maximum loss would be $6.26, $9.52 and $11.34 million respectively (up to year 2). When VAR is considered in the process economics the return period is significantly affected and is increased by 21 months. This study recommends that VAR should be considered as an integral part of process economics, especially for new product or process design. |
| abstract_unstemmed |
In this paper, the concept of value at risk (VAR) is introduced to study process economics related to biodiesel production and use. Although the VAR concept is actively used in financial engineering for stock investment and trading, it has never been used in process economics. A methodology to develop a VAR model for a biodiesel process facility has been proposed and analysed. The impact of different cost related risk factors is modelled using a stochastic process and interdependence in a Bayesian Network format. The analysis reveals that cost underestimation is the most significant risk factor in biodiesel economics. The VAR model is analysed for 1, 5, and 10 VAR for 5 years of plant operations. Analysing VAR at any point of time (i.e. year 2) shows that with a 1% chance, 5% chance and 10% chance, the maximum loss would be $6.26, $9.52 and $11.34 million respectively (up to year 2). When VAR is considered in the process economics the return period is significantly affected and is increased by 21 months. This study recommends that VAR should be considered as an integral part of process economics, especially for new product or process design. |
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A novel process economics risk model applied to biodiesel production system |
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