Combining scenario planning, energy system analysis, and multi-criteria analysis to develop and evaluate energy scenarios
The transition from the current electricity system to a renewable electricity supply poses immense economic, technological, and policy challenges. Energy system models represent the complexity of interactions in combined processes from extraction of primary energy to the use of the final energy to s...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Gespeichert in:
| Autor*in: |
Witt, Tobias [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
E-Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2020transfer abstract |
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| Schlagwörter: |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Self-assembled 3D hierarchical MnCO - Rajendiran, Rajmohan ELSEVIER, 2020, Amsterdam [u.a.] |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:242 ; year:2020 ; day:1 ; month:01 ; pages:0 |
| Links: |
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| DOI / URN: |
10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.118414 |
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| 520 | |a The transition from the current electricity system to a renewable electricity supply poses immense economic, technological, and policy challenges. Energy system models represent the complexity of interactions in combined processes from extraction of primary energy to the use of the final energy to supply services and goods. While these models were originally focused on energy security and costs, climate change, as the most pressing environmental concern as well as sustainability in general require the consideration of a broader range of decision-relevant aspects. In this context, scenario planning and multi-criteria decision-making can complement energy system analysis in the development and evaluation of energy scenarios. Therefore, we propose a combination of these three methods and illustrate it in a case study that investigates the transition of the electricity sector in Lower Saxony, Germany, to energy from renewable sources. The results of our case study show that the integration of multi-criteria analysis allows for better Problem structuring by focusing on relevant alternatives, external uncertainties, and evaluation criteria. The integration of scenario planning allows for a systematic investigation of external uncertainties. Thereby, the fallacy of investigating particular assumptions for uncertain parameters, which are however not consistent with the assumptions in the scenario, can be avoided. Finally, combining the methods allows for a more balanced and objective evaluation of alternative energy systems in terms of multiple criteria, which can be used to inform discussions among stakeholders and may thus increase acceptance. | ||
| 520 | |a The transition from the current electricity system to a renewable electricity supply poses immense economic, technological, and policy challenges. Energy system models represent the complexity of interactions in combined processes from extraction of primary energy to the use of the final energy to supply services and goods. While these models were originally focused on energy security and costs, climate change, as the most pressing environmental concern as well as sustainability in general require the consideration of a broader range of decision-relevant aspects. In this context, scenario planning and multi-criteria decision-making can complement energy system analysis in the development and evaluation of energy scenarios. Therefore, we propose a combination of these three methods and illustrate it in a case study that investigates the transition of the electricity sector in Lower Saxony, Germany, to energy from renewable sources. The results of our case study show that the integration of multi-criteria analysis allows for better Problem structuring by focusing on relevant alternatives, external uncertainties, and evaluation criteria. The integration of scenario planning allows for a systematic investigation of external uncertainties. Thereby, the fallacy of investigating particular assumptions for uncertain parameters, which are however not consistent with the assumptions in the scenario, can be avoided. Finally, combining the methods allows for a more balanced and objective evaluation of alternative energy systems in terms of multiple criteria, which can be used to inform discussions among stakeholders and may thus increase acceptance. | ||
| 650 | 7 | |a Energy scenarios |2 Elsevier | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Multi-criteria analysis |2 Elsevier | |
| 650 | 7 | |a External uncertainty |2 Elsevier | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Energy system analysis |2 Elsevier | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Scenario planning |2 Elsevier | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Dumeier, Marcel |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Geldermann, Jutta |4 oth | |
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10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.118414 doi /cbs_pica/cbs_olc/import_discovery/elsevier/einzuspielen/GBV00000000001027.pica (DE-627)ELV048231657 (ELSEVIER)S0959-6526(19)33284-6 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 540 VZ 35.18 bkl Witt, Tobias verfasserin aut Combining scenario planning, energy system analysis, and multi-criteria analysis to develop and evaluate energy scenarios 2020transfer abstract nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent nicht spezifiziert z rdamedia nicht spezifiziert zu rdacarrier The transition from the current electricity system to a renewable electricity supply poses immense economic, technological, and policy challenges. Energy system models represent the complexity of interactions in combined processes from extraction of primary energy to the use of the final energy to supply services and goods. While these models were originally focused on energy security and costs, climate change, as the most pressing environmental concern as well as sustainability in general require the consideration of a broader range of decision-relevant aspects. In this context, scenario planning and multi-criteria decision-making can complement energy system analysis in the development and evaluation of energy scenarios. Therefore, we propose a combination of these three methods and illustrate it in a case study that investigates the transition of the electricity sector in Lower Saxony, Germany, to energy from renewable sources. The results of our case study show that the integration of multi-criteria analysis allows for better Problem structuring by focusing on relevant alternatives, external uncertainties, and evaluation criteria. The integration of scenario planning allows for a systematic investigation of external uncertainties. Thereby, the fallacy of investigating particular assumptions for uncertain parameters, which are however not consistent with the assumptions in the scenario, can be avoided. Finally, combining the methods allows for a more balanced and objective evaluation of alternative energy systems in terms of multiple criteria, which can be used to inform discussions among stakeholders and may thus increase acceptance. The transition from the current electricity system to a renewable electricity supply poses immense economic, technological, and policy challenges. Energy system models represent the complexity of interactions in combined processes from extraction of primary energy to the use of the final energy to supply services and goods. While these models were originally focused on energy security and costs, climate change, as the most pressing environmental concern as well as sustainability in general require the consideration of a broader range of decision-relevant aspects. In this context, scenario planning and multi-criteria decision-making can complement energy system analysis in the development and evaluation of energy scenarios. Therefore, we propose a combination of these three methods and illustrate it in a case study that investigates the transition of the electricity sector in Lower Saxony, Germany, to energy from renewable sources. The results of our case study show that the integration of multi-criteria analysis allows for better Problem structuring by focusing on relevant alternatives, external uncertainties, and evaluation criteria. The integration of scenario planning allows for a systematic investigation of external uncertainties. Thereby, the fallacy of investigating particular assumptions for uncertain parameters, which are however not consistent with the assumptions in the scenario, can be avoided. Finally, combining the methods allows for a more balanced and objective evaluation of alternative energy systems in terms of multiple criteria, which can be used to inform discussions among stakeholders and may thus increase acceptance. Energy scenarios Elsevier Multi-criteria analysis Elsevier External uncertainty Elsevier Energy system analysis Elsevier Scenario planning Elsevier Dumeier, Marcel oth Geldermann, Jutta oth Enthalten in Elsevier Science Rajendiran, Rajmohan ELSEVIER Self-assembled 3D hierarchical MnCO 2020 Amsterdam [u.a.] (DE-627)ELV003750353 volume:242 year:2020 day:1 month:01 pages:0 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.118414 Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ELV SYSFLAG_U 35.18 Kolloidchemie Grenzflächenchemie VZ AR 242 2020 1 0101 0 |
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10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.118414 doi /cbs_pica/cbs_olc/import_discovery/elsevier/einzuspielen/GBV00000000001027.pica (DE-627)ELV048231657 (ELSEVIER)S0959-6526(19)33284-6 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 540 VZ 35.18 bkl Witt, Tobias verfasserin aut Combining scenario planning, energy system analysis, and multi-criteria analysis to develop and evaluate energy scenarios 2020transfer abstract nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent nicht spezifiziert z rdamedia nicht spezifiziert zu rdacarrier The transition from the current electricity system to a renewable electricity supply poses immense economic, technological, and policy challenges. Energy system models represent the complexity of interactions in combined processes from extraction of primary energy to the use of the final energy to supply services and goods. While these models were originally focused on energy security and costs, climate change, as the most pressing environmental concern as well as sustainability in general require the consideration of a broader range of decision-relevant aspects. In this context, scenario planning and multi-criteria decision-making can complement energy system analysis in the development and evaluation of energy scenarios. Therefore, we propose a combination of these three methods and illustrate it in a case study that investigates the transition of the electricity sector in Lower Saxony, Germany, to energy from renewable sources. The results of our case study show that the integration of multi-criteria analysis allows for better Problem structuring by focusing on relevant alternatives, external uncertainties, and evaluation criteria. The integration of scenario planning allows for a systematic investigation of external uncertainties. Thereby, the fallacy of investigating particular assumptions for uncertain parameters, which are however not consistent with the assumptions in the scenario, can be avoided. Finally, combining the methods allows for a more balanced and objective evaluation of alternative energy systems in terms of multiple criteria, which can be used to inform discussions among stakeholders and may thus increase acceptance. The transition from the current electricity system to a renewable electricity supply poses immense economic, technological, and policy challenges. Energy system models represent the complexity of interactions in combined processes from extraction of primary energy to the use of the final energy to supply services and goods. While these models were originally focused on energy security and costs, climate change, as the most pressing environmental concern as well as sustainability in general require the consideration of a broader range of decision-relevant aspects. In this context, scenario planning and multi-criteria decision-making can complement energy system analysis in the development and evaluation of energy scenarios. Therefore, we propose a combination of these three methods and illustrate it in a case study that investigates the transition of the electricity sector in Lower Saxony, Germany, to energy from renewable sources. The results of our case study show that the integration of multi-criteria analysis allows for better Problem structuring by focusing on relevant alternatives, external uncertainties, and evaluation criteria. The integration of scenario planning allows for a systematic investigation of external uncertainties. Thereby, the fallacy of investigating particular assumptions for uncertain parameters, which are however not consistent with the assumptions in the scenario, can be avoided. Finally, combining the methods allows for a more balanced and objective evaluation of alternative energy systems in terms of multiple criteria, which can be used to inform discussions among stakeholders and may thus increase acceptance. Energy scenarios Elsevier Multi-criteria analysis Elsevier External uncertainty Elsevier Energy system analysis Elsevier Scenario planning Elsevier Dumeier, Marcel oth Geldermann, Jutta oth Enthalten in Elsevier Science Rajendiran, Rajmohan ELSEVIER Self-assembled 3D hierarchical MnCO 2020 Amsterdam [u.a.] (DE-627)ELV003750353 volume:242 year:2020 day:1 month:01 pages:0 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.118414 Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ELV SYSFLAG_U 35.18 Kolloidchemie Grenzflächenchemie VZ AR 242 2020 1 0101 0 |
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10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.118414 doi /cbs_pica/cbs_olc/import_discovery/elsevier/einzuspielen/GBV00000000001027.pica (DE-627)ELV048231657 (ELSEVIER)S0959-6526(19)33284-6 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 540 VZ 35.18 bkl Witt, Tobias verfasserin aut Combining scenario planning, energy system analysis, and multi-criteria analysis to develop and evaluate energy scenarios 2020transfer abstract nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent nicht spezifiziert z rdamedia nicht spezifiziert zu rdacarrier The transition from the current electricity system to a renewable electricity supply poses immense economic, technological, and policy challenges. Energy system models represent the complexity of interactions in combined processes from extraction of primary energy to the use of the final energy to supply services and goods. While these models were originally focused on energy security and costs, climate change, as the most pressing environmental concern as well as sustainability in general require the consideration of a broader range of decision-relevant aspects. In this context, scenario planning and multi-criteria decision-making can complement energy system analysis in the development and evaluation of energy scenarios. Therefore, we propose a combination of these three methods and illustrate it in a case study that investigates the transition of the electricity sector in Lower Saxony, Germany, to energy from renewable sources. The results of our case study show that the integration of multi-criteria analysis allows for better Problem structuring by focusing on relevant alternatives, external uncertainties, and evaluation criteria. The integration of scenario planning allows for a systematic investigation of external uncertainties. Thereby, the fallacy of investigating particular assumptions for uncertain parameters, which are however not consistent with the assumptions in the scenario, can be avoided. Finally, combining the methods allows for a more balanced and objective evaluation of alternative energy systems in terms of multiple criteria, which can be used to inform discussions among stakeholders and may thus increase acceptance. The transition from the current electricity system to a renewable electricity supply poses immense economic, technological, and policy challenges. Energy system models represent the complexity of interactions in combined processes from extraction of primary energy to the use of the final energy to supply services and goods. While these models were originally focused on energy security and costs, climate change, as the most pressing environmental concern as well as sustainability in general require the consideration of a broader range of decision-relevant aspects. In this context, scenario planning and multi-criteria decision-making can complement energy system analysis in the development and evaluation of energy scenarios. Therefore, we propose a combination of these three methods and illustrate it in a case study that investigates the transition of the electricity sector in Lower Saxony, Germany, to energy from renewable sources. The results of our case study show that the integration of multi-criteria analysis allows for better Problem structuring by focusing on relevant alternatives, external uncertainties, and evaluation criteria. The integration of scenario planning allows for a systematic investigation of external uncertainties. Thereby, the fallacy of investigating particular assumptions for uncertain parameters, which are however not consistent with the assumptions in the scenario, can be avoided. Finally, combining the methods allows for a more balanced and objective evaluation of alternative energy systems in terms of multiple criteria, which can be used to inform discussions among stakeholders and may thus increase acceptance. Energy scenarios Elsevier Multi-criteria analysis Elsevier External uncertainty Elsevier Energy system analysis Elsevier Scenario planning Elsevier Dumeier, Marcel oth Geldermann, Jutta oth Enthalten in Elsevier Science Rajendiran, Rajmohan ELSEVIER Self-assembled 3D hierarchical MnCO 2020 Amsterdam [u.a.] (DE-627)ELV003750353 volume:242 year:2020 day:1 month:01 pages:0 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.118414 Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ELV SYSFLAG_U 35.18 Kolloidchemie Grenzflächenchemie VZ AR 242 2020 1 0101 0 |
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10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.118414 doi /cbs_pica/cbs_olc/import_discovery/elsevier/einzuspielen/GBV00000000001027.pica (DE-627)ELV048231657 (ELSEVIER)S0959-6526(19)33284-6 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 540 VZ 35.18 bkl Witt, Tobias verfasserin aut Combining scenario planning, energy system analysis, and multi-criteria analysis to develop and evaluate energy scenarios 2020transfer abstract nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent nicht spezifiziert z rdamedia nicht spezifiziert zu rdacarrier The transition from the current electricity system to a renewable electricity supply poses immense economic, technological, and policy challenges. Energy system models represent the complexity of interactions in combined processes from extraction of primary energy to the use of the final energy to supply services and goods. While these models were originally focused on energy security and costs, climate change, as the most pressing environmental concern as well as sustainability in general require the consideration of a broader range of decision-relevant aspects. In this context, scenario planning and multi-criteria decision-making can complement energy system analysis in the development and evaluation of energy scenarios. Therefore, we propose a combination of these three methods and illustrate it in a case study that investigates the transition of the electricity sector in Lower Saxony, Germany, to energy from renewable sources. The results of our case study show that the integration of multi-criteria analysis allows for better Problem structuring by focusing on relevant alternatives, external uncertainties, and evaluation criteria. The integration of scenario planning allows for a systematic investigation of external uncertainties. Thereby, the fallacy of investigating particular assumptions for uncertain parameters, which are however not consistent with the assumptions in the scenario, can be avoided. Finally, combining the methods allows for a more balanced and objective evaluation of alternative energy systems in terms of multiple criteria, which can be used to inform discussions among stakeholders and may thus increase acceptance. The transition from the current electricity system to a renewable electricity supply poses immense economic, technological, and policy challenges. Energy system models represent the complexity of interactions in combined processes from extraction of primary energy to the use of the final energy to supply services and goods. While these models were originally focused on energy security and costs, climate change, as the most pressing environmental concern as well as sustainability in general require the consideration of a broader range of decision-relevant aspects. In this context, scenario planning and multi-criteria decision-making can complement energy system analysis in the development and evaluation of energy scenarios. Therefore, we propose a combination of these three methods and illustrate it in a case study that investigates the transition of the electricity sector in Lower Saxony, Germany, to energy from renewable sources. The results of our case study show that the integration of multi-criteria analysis allows for better Problem structuring by focusing on relevant alternatives, external uncertainties, and evaluation criteria. The integration of scenario planning allows for a systematic investigation of external uncertainties. Thereby, the fallacy of investigating particular assumptions for uncertain parameters, which are however not consistent with the assumptions in the scenario, can be avoided. Finally, combining the methods allows for a more balanced and objective evaluation of alternative energy systems in terms of multiple criteria, which can be used to inform discussions among stakeholders and may thus increase acceptance. Energy scenarios Elsevier Multi-criteria analysis Elsevier External uncertainty Elsevier Energy system analysis Elsevier Scenario planning Elsevier Dumeier, Marcel oth Geldermann, Jutta oth Enthalten in Elsevier Science Rajendiran, Rajmohan ELSEVIER Self-assembled 3D hierarchical MnCO 2020 Amsterdam [u.a.] (DE-627)ELV003750353 volume:242 year:2020 day:1 month:01 pages:0 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.118414 Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ELV SYSFLAG_U 35.18 Kolloidchemie Grenzflächenchemie VZ AR 242 2020 1 0101 0 |
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10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.118414 doi /cbs_pica/cbs_olc/import_discovery/elsevier/einzuspielen/GBV00000000001027.pica (DE-627)ELV048231657 (ELSEVIER)S0959-6526(19)33284-6 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 540 VZ 35.18 bkl Witt, Tobias verfasserin aut Combining scenario planning, energy system analysis, and multi-criteria analysis to develop and evaluate energy scenarios 2020transfer abstract nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent nicht spezifiziert z rdamedia nicht spezifiziert zu rdacarrier The transition from the current electricity system to a renewable electricity supply poses immense economic, technological, and policy challenges. Energy system models represent the complexity of interactions in combined processes from extraction of primary energy to the use of the final energy to supply services and goods. While these models were originally focused on energy security and costs, climate change, as the most pressing environmental concern as well as sustainability in general require the consideration of a broader range of decision-relevant aspects. In this context, scenario planning and multi-criteria decision-making can complement energy system analysis in the development and evaluation of energy scenarios. Therefore, we propose a combination of these three methods and illustrate it in a case study that investigates the transition of the electricity sector in Lower Saxony, Germany, to energy from renewable sources. The results of our case study show that the integration of multi-criteria analysis allows for better Problem structuring by focusing on relevant alternatives, external uncertainties, and evaluation criteria. The integration of scenario planning allows for a systematic investigation of external uncertainties. Thereby, the fallacy of investigating particular assumptions for uncertain parameters, which are however not consistent with the assumptions in the scenario, can be avoided. Finally, combining the methods allows for a more balanced and objective evaluation of alternative energy systems in terms of multiple criteria, which can be used to inform discussions among stakeholders and may thus increase acceptance. The transition from the current electricity system to a renewable electricity supply poses immense economic, technological, and policy challenges. Energy system models represent the complexity of interactions in combined processes from extraction of primary energy to the use of the final energy to supply services and goods. While these models were originally focused on energy security and costs, climate change, as the most pressing environmental concern as well as sustainability in general require the consideration of a broader range of decision-relevant aspects. In this context, scenario planning and multi-criteria decision-making can complement energy system analysis in the development and evaluation of energy scenarios. Therefore, we propose a combination of these three methods and illustrate it in a case study that investigates the transition of the electricity sector in Lower Saxony, Germany, to energy from renewable sources. The results of our case study show that the integration of multi-criteria analysis allows for better Problem structuring by focusing on relevant alternatives, external uncertainties, and evaluation criteria. The integration of scenario planning allows for a systematic investigation of external uncertainties. Thereby, the fallacy of investigating particular assumptions for uncertain parameters, which are however not consistent with the assumptions in the scenario, can be avoided. Finally, combining the methods allows for a more balanced and objective evaluation of alternative energy systems in terms of multiple criteria, which can be used to inform discussions among stakeholders and may thus increase acceptance. Energy scenarios Elsevier Multi-criteria analysis Elsevier External uncertainty Elsevier Energy system analysis Elsevier Scenario planning Elsevier Dumeier, Marcel oth Geldermann, Jutta oth Enthalten in Elsevier Science Rajendiran, Rajmohan ELSEVIER Self-assembled 3D hierarchical MnCO 2020 Amsterdam [u.a.] (DE-627)ELV003750353 volume:242 year:2020 day:1 month:01 pages:0 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.118414 Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ELV SYSFLAG_U 35.18 Kolloidchemie Grenzflächenchemie VZ AR 242 2020 1 0101 0 |
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The results of our case study show that the integration of multi-criteria analysis allows for better Problem structuring by focusing on relevant alternatives, external uncertainties, and evaluation criteria. The integration of scenario planning allows for a systematic investigation of external uncertainties. Thereby, the fallacy of investigating particular assumptions for uncertain parameters, which are however not consistent with the assumptions in the scenario, can be avoided. Finally, combining the methods allows for a more balanced and objective evaluation of alternative energy systems in terms of multiple criteria, which can be used to inform discussions among stakeholders and may thus increase acceptance.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="520" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">The transition from the current electricity system to a renewable electricity supply poses immense economic, technological, and policy challenges. 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Combining scenario planning, energy system analysis, and multi-criteria analysis to develop and evaluate energy scenarios |
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The transition from the current electricity system to a renewable electricity supply poses immense economic, technological, and policy challenges. Energy system models represent the complexity of interactions in combined processes from extraction of primary energy to the use of the final energy to supply services and goods. While these models were originally focused on energy security and costs, climate change, as the most pressing environmental concern as well as sustainability in general require the consideration of a broader range of decision-relevant aspects. In this context, scenario planning and multi-criteria decision-making can complement energy system analysis in the development and evaluation of energy scenarios. Therefore, we propose a combination of these three methods and illustrate it in a case study that investigates the transition of the electricity sector in Lower Saxony, Germany, to energy from renewable sources. The results of our case study show that the integration of multi-criteria analysis allows for better Problem structuring by focusing on relevant alternatives, external uncertainties, and evaluation criteria. The integration of scenario planning allows for a systematic investigation of external uncertainties. Thereby, the fallacy of investigating particular assumptions for uncertain parameters, which are however not consistent with the assumptions in the scenario, can be avoided. Finally, combining the methods allows for a more balanced and objective evaluation of alternative energy systems in terms of multiple criteria, which can be used to inform discussions among stakeholders and may thus increase acceptance. |
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The transition from the current electricity system to a renewable electricity supply poses immense economic, technological, and policy challenges. Energy system models represent the complexity of interactions in combined processes from extraction of primary energy to the use of the final energy to supply services and goods. While these models were originally focused on energy security and costs, climate change, as the most pressing environmental concern as well as sustainability in general require the consideration of a broader range of decision-relevant aspects. In this context, scenario planning and multi-criteria decision-making can complement energy system analysis in the development and evaluation of energy scenarios. Therefore, we propose a combination of these three methods and illustrate it in a case study that investigates the transition of the electricity sector in Lower Saxony, Germany, to energy from renewable sources. The results of our case study show that the integration of multi-criteria analysis allows for better Problem structuring by focusing on relevant alternatives, external uncertainties, and evaluation criteria. The integration of scenario planning allows for a systematic investigation of external uncertainties. Thereby, the fallacy of investigating particular assumptions for uncertain parameters, which are however not consistent with the assumptions in the scenario, can be avoided. Finally, combining the methods allows for a more balanced and objective evaluation of alternative energy systems in terms of multiple criteria, which can be used to inform discussions among stakeholders and may thus increase acceptance. |
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The transition from the current electricity system to a renewable electricity supply poses immense economic, technological, and policy challenges. Energy system models represent the complexity of interactions in combined processes from extraction of primary energy to the use of the final energy to supply services and goods. While these models were originally focused on energy security and costs, climate change, as the most pressing environmental concern as well as sustainability in general require the consideration of a broader range of decision-relevant aspects. In this context, scenario planning and multi-criteria decision-making can complement energy system analysis in the development and evaluation of energy scenarios. Therefore, we propose a combination of these three methods and illustrate it in a case study that investigates the transition of the electricity sector in Lower Saxony, Germany, to energy from renewable sources. The results of our case study show that the integration of multi-criteria analysis allows for better Problem structuring by focusing on relevant alternatives, external uncertainties, and evaluation criteria. The integration of scenario planning allows for a systematic investigation of external uncertainties. Thereby, the fallacy of investigating particular assumptions for uncertain parameters, which are however not consistent with the assumptions in the scenario, can be avoided. Finally, combining the methods allows for a more balanced and objective evaluation of alternative energy systems in terms of multiple criteria, which can be used to inform discussions among stakeholders and may thus increase acceptance. |
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