Combining narrative scenarios, local knowledge and land-use change modelling for integrating soil erosion in a global perspective
Mediterranean soil resources are heavily affected by water erosion. There is a need for anticipating the potential impact of land-use change at the catchment scale, considering a range of contrasted possible changes, in order to prepare a relevant adaptation strategy. While participatory scenario ap...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Gespeichert in:
| Autor*in: |
Hérivaux, C. [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
E-Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2021transfer abstract |
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| Schlagwörter: |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Land use policy - Son, Yang-Ju ELSEVIER, 2021, the international journal covering all aspects of land use, Amsterdam [u.a.] |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:105 ; year:2021 ; pages:0 |
| Links: |
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| DOI / URN: |
10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105406 |
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| 520 | |a Mediterranean soil resources are heavily affected by water erosion. There is a need for anticipating the potential impact of land-use change at the catchment scale, considering a range of contrasted possible changes, in order to prepare a relevant adaptation strategy. While participatory scenario approaches are useful for unveiling the diversity of possible futures, their outputs generally take the form of narratives that may be difficult to relate to biophysical models used for simulating soil and water processes. We addressed this challenge by developing a methodology combining narrative scenarios and land-use change modelling at the catchment scale, interacting with local stakeholders who were involved throughout the research, in line with current Land System research. First, we built contrasted scenarios, each with a narrative story and quantitative assumptions for key variables. Then we drew up rules for translating narrative scenarios into spatially explicit maps based on expert groups and local knowledge, simulating the evolution of land use over time. Third, we evaluated and validated the final scenarios by conducting two workshops with scientists and local stakeholders. Finally, we assessed the impact of these scenarios on agricultural production and erosion control. This approach was implemented in the Tleta basin (Morocco), a 180 km2 rural watershed, 10 km from Tangiers and heavily affected by water erosion. As a result, we propose three contrasted spatially explicit land-use change scenarios by 2040. Our work highlights the interest of combining narrative storylines and land-use modelling when developing spatially explicit scenarios at the catchment scale, incorporating the local knowledge of stakeholders. The combination of Land System and ecosystem frameworks contributes to integrating the soil erosion issue in a more global perspective, and lays the foundation for building sustainable strategies for Mediterranean catchments affected by soil erosion. | ||
| 520 | |a Mediterranean soil resources are heavily affected by water erosion. There is a need for anticipating the potential impact of land-use change at the catchment scale, considering a range of contrasted possible changes, in order to prepare a relevant adaptation strategy. While participatory scenario approaches are useful for unveiling the diversity of possible futures, their outputs generally take the form of narratives that may be difficult to relate to biophysical models used for simulating soil and water processes. We addressed this challenge by developing a methodology combining narrative scenarios and land-use change modelling at the catchment scale, interacting with local stakeholders who were involved throughout the research, in line with current Land System research. First, we built contrasted scenarios, each with a narrative story and quantitative assumptions for key variables. Then we drew up rules for translating narrative scenarios into spatially explicit maps based on expert groups and local knowledge, simulating the evolution of land use over time. Third, we evaluated and validated the final scenarios by conducting two workshops with scientists and local stakeholders. Finally, we assessed the impact of these scenarios on agricultural production and erosion control. This approach was implemented in the Tleta basin (Morocco), a 180 km2 rural watershed, 10 km from Tangiers and heavily affected by water erosion. As a result, we propose three contrasted spatially explicit land-use change scenarios by 2040. Our work highlights the interest of combining narrative storylines and land-use modelling when developing spatially explicit scenarios at the catchment scale, incorporating the local knowledge of stakeholders. The combination of Land System and ecosystem frameworks contributes to integrating the soil erosion issue in a more global perspective, and lays the foundation for building sustainable strategies for Mediterranean catchments affected by soil erosion. | ||
| 650 | 7 | |a Participation |2 Elsevier | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Soil erosion |2 Elsevier | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Morocco |2 Elsevier | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Narrative scenarios |2 Elsevier | |
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| 650 | 7 | |a Land system |2 Elsevier | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Vinatier, F. |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Sabir, M. |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Guillot, F. |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Rinaudo, J.D. |4 oth | |
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10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105406 doi /cbs_pica/cbs_olc/import_discovery/elsevier/einzuspielen/GBV00000000001839.pica (DE-627)ELV05369144X (ELSEVIER)S0264-8377(21)00129-0 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 630 640 610 VZ Hérivaux, C. verfasserin aut Combining narrative scenarios, local knowledge and land-use change modelling for integrating soil erosion in a global perspective 2021transfer abstract nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent nicht spezifiziert z rdamedia nicht spezifiziert zu rdacarrier Mediterranean soil resources are heavily affected by water erosion. There is a need for anticipating the potential impact of land-use change at the catchment scale, considering a range of contrasted possible changes, in order to prepare a relevant adaptation strategy. While participatory scenario approaches are useful for unveiling the diversity of possible futures, their outputs generally take the form of narratives that may be difficult to relate to biophysical models used for simulating soil and water processes. We addressed this challenge by developing a methodology combining narrative scenarios and land-use change modelling at the catchment scale, interacting with local stakeholders who were involved throughout the research, in line with current Land System research. First, we built contrasted scenarios, each with a narrative story and quantitative assumptions for key variables. Then we drew up rules for translating narrative scenarios into spatially explicit maps based on expert groups and local knowledge, simulating the evolution of land use over time. Third, we evaluated and validated the final scenarios by conducting two workshops with scientists and local stakeholders. Finally, we assessed the impact of these scenarios on agricultural production and erosion control. This approach was implemented in the Tleta basin (Morocco), a 180 km2 rural watershed, 10 km from Tangiers and heavily affected by water erosion. As a result, we propose three contrasted spatially explicit land-use change scenarios by 2040. Our work highlights the interest of combining narrative storylines and land-use modelling when developing spatially explicit scenarios at the catchment scale, incorporating the local knowledge of stakeholders. The combination of Land System and ecosystem frameworks contributes to integrating the soil erosion issue in a more global perspective, and lays the foundation for building sustainable strategies for Mediterranean catchments affected by soil erosion. Mediterranean soil resources are heavily affected by water erosion. There is a need for anticipating the potential impact of land-use change at the catchment scale, considering a range of contrasted possible changes, in order to prepare a relevant adaptation strategy. While participatory scenario approaches are useful for unveiling the diversity of possible futures, their outputs generally take the form of narratives that may be difficult to relate to biophysical models used for simulating soil and water processes. We addressed this challenge by developing a methodology combining narrative scenarios and land-use change modelling at the catchment scale, interacting with local stakeholders who were involved throughout the research, in line with current Land System research. First, we built contrasted scenarios, each with a narrative story and quantitative assumptions for key variables. Then we drew up rules for translating narrative scenarios into spatially explicit maps based on expert groups and local knowledge, simulating the evolution of land use over time. Third, we evaluated and validated the final scenarios by conducting two workshops with scientists and local stakeholders. Finally, we assessed the impact of these scenarios on agricultural production and erosion control. This approach was implemented in the Tleta basin (Morocco), a 180 km2 rural watershed, 10 km from Tangiers and heavily affected by water erosion. As a result, we propose three contrasted spatially explicit land-use change scenarios by 2040. Our work highlights the interest of combining narrative storylines and land-use modelling when developing spatially explicit scenarios at the catchment scale, incorporating the local knowledge of stakeholders. The combination of Land System and ecosystem frameworks contributes to integrating the soil erosion issue in a more global perspective, and lays the foundation for building sustainable strategies for Mediterranean catchments affected by soil erosion. Participation Elsevier Soil erosion Elsevier Morocco Elsevier Narrative scenarios Elsevier LUCC modelling Elsevier Land system Elsevier Vinatier, F. oth Sabir, M. oth Guillot, F. oth Rinaudo, J.D. oth Enthalten in Elsevier Science Son, Yang-Ju ELSEVIER Land use policy 2021 the international journal covering all aspects of land use Amsterdam [u.a.] (DE-627)ELV006296785 volume:105 year:2021 pages:0 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105406 Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ELV SYSFLAG_U SSG-OLC-PHA AR 105 2021 0 |
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10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105406 doi /cbs_pica/cbs_olc/import_discovery/elsevier/einzuspielen/GBV00000000001839.pica (DE-627)ELV05369144X (ELSEVIER)S0264-8377(21)00129-0 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 630 640 610 VZ Hérivaux, C. verfasserin aut Combining narrative scenarios, local knowledge and land-use change modelling for integrating soil erosion in a global perspective 2021transfer abstract nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent nicht spezifiziert z rdamedia nicht spezifiziert zu rdacarrier Mediterranean soil resources are heavily affected by water erosion. There is a need for anticipating the potential impact of land-use change at the catchment scale, considering a range of contrasted possible changes, in order to prepare a relevant adaptation strategy. While participatory scenario approaches are useful for unveiling the diversity of possible futures, their outputs generally take the form of narratives that may be difficult to relate to biophysical models used for simulating soil and water processes. We addressed this challenge by developing a methodology combining narrative scenarios and land-use change modelling at the catchment scale, interacting with local stakeholders who were involved throughout the research, in line with current Land System research. First, we built contrasted scenarios, each with a narrative story and quantitative assumptions for key variables. Then we drew up rules for translating narrative scenarios into spatially explicit maps based on expert groups and local knowledge, simulating the evolution of land use over time. Third, we evaluated and validated the final scenarios by conducting two workshops with scientists and local stakeholders. Finally, we assessed the impact of these scenarios on agricultural production and erosion control. This approach was implemented in the Tleta basin (Morocco), a 180 km2 rural watershed, 10 km from Tangiers and heavily affected by water erosion. As a result, we propose three contrasted spatially explicit land-use change scenarios by 2040. Our work highlights the interest of combining narrative storylines and land-use modelling when developing spatially explicit scenarios at the catchment scale, incorporating the local knowledge of stakeholders. The combination of Land System and ecosystem frameworks contributes to integrating the soil erosion issue in a more global perspective, and lays the foundation for building sustainable strategies for Mediterranean catchments affected by soil erosion. Mediterranean soil resources are heavily affected by water erosion. There is a need for anticipating the potential impact of land-use change at the catchment scale, considering a range of contrasted possible changes, in order to prepare a relevant adaptation strategy. While participatory scenario approaches are useful for unveiling the diversity of possible futures, their outputs generally take the form of narratives that may be difficult to relate to biophysical models used for simulating soil and water processes. We addressed this challenge by developing a methodology combining narrative scenarios and land-use change modelling at the catchment scale, interacting with local stakeholders who were involved throughout the research, in line with current Land System research. First, we built contrasted scenarios, each with a narrative story and quantitative assumptions for key variables. Then we drew up rules for translating narrative scenarios into spatially explicit maps based on expert groups and local knowledge, simulating the evolution of land use over time. Third, we evaluated and validated the final scenarios by conducting two workshops with scientists and local stakeholders. Finally, we assessed the impact of these scenarios on agricultural production and erosion control. This approach was implemented in the Tleta basin (Morocco), a 180 km2 rural watershed, 10 km from Tangiers and heavily affected by water erosion. As a result, we propose three contrasted spatially explicit land-use change scenarios by 2040. Our work highlights the interest of combining narrative storylines and land-use modelling when developing spatially explicit scenarios at the catchment scale, incorporating the local knowledge of stakeholders. The combination of Land System and ecosystem frameworks contributes to integrating the soil erosion issue in a more global perspective, and lays the foundation for building sustainable strategies for Mediterranean catchments affected by soil erosion. Participation Elsevier Soil erosion Elsevier Morocco Elsevier Narrative scenarios Elsevier LUCC modelling Elsevier Land system Elsevier Vinatier, F. oth Sabir, M. oth Guillot, F. oth Rinaudo, J.D. oth Enthalten in Elsevier Science Son, Yang-Ju ELSEVIER Land use policy 2021 the international journal covering all aspects of land use Amsterdam [u.a.] (DE-627)ELV006296785 volume:105 year:2021 pages:0 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105406 Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ELV SYSFLAG_U SSG-OLC-PHA AR 105 2021 0 |
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10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105406 doi /cbs_pica/cbs_olc/import_discovery/elsevier/einzuspielen/GBV00000000001839.pica (DE-627)ELV05369144X (ELSEVIER)S0264-8377(21)00129-0 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 630 640 610 VZ Hérivaux, C. verfasserin aut Combining narrative scenarios, local knowledge and land-use change modelling for integrating soil erosion in a global perspective 2021transfer abstract nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent nicht spezifiziert z rdamedia nicht spezifiziert zu rdacarrier Mediterranean soil resources are heavily affected by water erosion. There is a need for anticipating the potential impact of land-use change at the catchment scale, considering a range of contrasted possible changes, in order to prepare a relevant adaptation strategy. While participatory scenario approaches are useful for unveiling the diversity of possible futures, their outputs generally take the form of narratives that may be difficult to relate to biophysical models used for simulating soil and water processes. We addressed this challenge by developing a methodology combining narrative scenarios and land-use change modelling at the catchment scale, interacting with local stakeholders who were involved throughout the research, in line with current Land System research. First, we built contrasted scenarios, each with a narrative story and quantitative assumptions for key variables. Then we drew up rules for translating narrative scenarios into spatially explicit maps based on expert groups and local knowledge, simulating the evolution of land use over time. Third, we evaluated and validated the final scenarios by conducting two workshops with scientists and local stakeholders. Finally, we assessed the impact of these scenarios on agricultural production and erosion control. This approach was implemented in the Tleta basin (Morocco), a 180 km2 rural watershed, 10 km from Tangiers and heavily affected by water erosion. As a result, we propose three contrasted spatially explicit land-use change scenarios by 2040. Our work highlights the interest of combining narrative storylines and land-use modelling when developing spatially explicit scenarios at the catchment scale, incorporating the local knowledge of stakeholders. The combination of Land System and ecosystem frameworks contributes to integrating the soil erosion issue in a more global perspective, and lays the foundation for building sustainable strategies for Mediterranean catchments affected by soil erosion. Mediterranean soil resources are heavily affected by water erosion. There is a need for anticipating the potential impact of land-use change at the catchment scale, considering a range of contrasted possible changes, in order to prepare a relevant adaptation strategy. While participatory scenario approaches are useful for unveiling the diversity of possible futures, their outputs generally take the form of narratives that may be difficult to relate to biophysical models used for simulating soil and water processes. We addressed this challenge by developing a methodology combining narrative scenarios and land-use change modelling at the catchment scale, interacting with local stakeholders who were involved throughout the research, in line with current Land System research. First, we built contrasted scenarios, each with a narrative story and quantitative assumptions for key variables. Then we drew up rules for translating narrative scenarios into spatially explicit maps based on expert groups and local knowledge, simulating the evolution of land use over time. Third, we evaluated and validated the final scenarios by conducting two workshops with scientists and local stakeholders. Finally, we assessed the impact of these scenarios on agricultural production and erosion control. This approach was implemented in the Tleta basin (Morocco), a 180 km2 rural watershed, 10 km from Tangiers and heavily affected by water erosion. As a result, we propose three contrasted spatially explicit land-use change scenarios by 2040. Our work highlights the interest of combining narrative storylines and land-use modelling when developing spatially explicit scenarios at the catchment scale, incorporating the local knowledge of stakeholders. The combination of Land System and ecosystem frameworks contributes to integrating the soil erosion issue in a more global perspective, and lays the foundation for building sustainable strategies for Mediterranean catchments affected by soil erosion. Participation Elsevier Soil erosion Elsevier Morocco Elsevier Narrative scenarios Elsevier LUCC modelling Elsevier Land system Elsevier Vinatier, F. oth Sabir, M. oth Guillot, F. oth Rinaudo, J.D. oth Enthalten in Elsevier Science Son, Yang-Ju ELSEVIER Land use policy 2021 the international journal covering all aspects of land use Amsterdam [u.a.] (DE-627)ELV006296785 volume:105 year:2021 pages:0 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105406 Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ELV SYSFLAG_U SSG-OLC-PHA AR 105 2021 0 |
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10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105406 doi /cbs_pica/cbs_olc/import_discovery/elsevier/einzuspielen/GBV00000000001839.pica (DE-627)ELV05369144X (ELSEVIER)S0264-8377(21)00129-0 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 630 640 610 VZ Hérivaux, C. verfasserin aut Combining narrative scenarios, local knowledge and land-use change modelling for integrating soil erosion in a global perspective 2021transfer abstract nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent nicht spezifiziert z rdamedia nicht spezifiziert zu rdacarrier Mediterranean soil resources are heavily affected by water erosion. There is a need for anticipating the potential impact of land-use change at the catchment scale, considering a range of contrasted possible changes, in order to prepare a relevant adaptation strategy. While participatory scenario approaches are useful for unveiling the diversity of possible futures, their outputs generally take the form of narratives that may be difficult to relate to biophysical models used for simulating soil and water processes. We addressed this challenge by developing a methodology combining narrative scenarios and land-use change modelling at the catchment scale, interacting with local stakeholders who were involved throughout the research, in line with current Land System research. First, we built contrasted scenarios, each with a narrative story and quantitative assumptions for key variables. Then we drew up rules for translating narrative scenarios into spatially explicit maps based on expert groups and local knowledge, simulating the evolution of land use over time. Third, we evaluated and validated the final scenarios by conducting two workshops with scientists and local stakeholders. Finally, we assessed the impact of these scenarios on agricultural production and erosion control. This approach was implemented in the Tleta basin (Morocco), a 180 km2 rural watershed, 10 km from Tangiers and heavily affected by water erosion. As a result, we propose three contrasted spatially explicit land-use change scenarios by 2040. Our work highlights the interest of combining narrative storylines and land-use modelling when developing spatially explicit scenarios at the catchment scale, incorporating the local knowledge of stakeholders. The combination of Land System and ecosystem frameworks contributes to integrating the soil erosion issue in a more global perspective, and lays the foundation for building sustainable strategies for Mediterranean catchments affected by soil erosion. Mediterranean soil resources are heavily affected by water erosion. There is a need for anticipating the potential impact of land-use change at the catchment scale, considering a range of contrasted possible changes, in order to prepare a relevant adaptation strategy. While participatory scenario approaches are useful for unveiling the diversity of possible futures, their outputs generally take the form of narratives that may be difficult to relate to biophysical models used for simulating soil and water processes. We addressed this challenge by developing a methodology combining narrative scenarios and land-use change modelling at the catchment scale, interacting with local stakeholders who were involved throughout the research, in line with current Land System research. First, we built contrasted scenarios, each with a narrative story and quantitative assumptions for key variables. Then we drew up rules for translating narrative scenarios into spatially explicit maps based on expert groups and local knowledge, simulating the evolution of land use over time. Third, we evaluated and validated the final scenarios by conducting two workshops with scientists and local stakeholders. Finally, we assessed the impact of these scenarios on agricultural production and erosion control. This approach was implemented in the Tleta basin (Morocco), a 180 km2 rural watershed, 10 km from Tangiers and heavily affected by water erosion. As a result, we propose three contrasted spatially explicit land-use change scenarios by 2040. Our work highlights the interest of combining narrative storylines and land-use modelling when developing spatially explicit scenarios at the catchment scale, incorporating the local knowledge of stakeholders. The combination of Land System and ecosystem frameworks contributes to integrating the soil erosion issue in a more global perspective, and lays the foundation for building sustainable strategies for Mediterranean catchments affected by soil erosion. Participation Elsevier Soil erosion Elsevier Morocco Elsevier Narrative scenarios Elsevier LUCC modelling Elsevier Land system Elsevier Vinatier, F. oth Sabir, M. oth Guillot, F. oth Rinaudo, J.D. oth Enthalten in Elsevier Science Son, Yang-Ju ELSEVIER Land use policy 2021 the international journal covering all aspects of land use Amsterdam [u.a.] (DE-627)ELV006296785 volume:105 year:2021 pages:0 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105406 Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ELV SYSFLAG_U SSG-OLC-PHA AR 105 2021 0 |
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10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105406 doi /cbs_pica/cbs_olc/import_discovery/elsevier/einzuspielen/GBV00000000001839.pica (DE-627)ELV05369144X (ELSEVIER)S0264-8377(21)00129-0 DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 630 640 610 VZ Hérivaux, C. verfasserin aut Combining narrative scenarios, local knowledge and land-use change modelling for integrating soil erosion in a global perspective 2021transfer abstract nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent nicht spezifiziert z rdamedia nicht spezifiziert zu rdacarrier Mediterranean soil resources are heavily affected by water erosion. There is a need for anticipating the potential impact of land-use change at the catchment scale, considering a range of contrasted possible changes, in order to prepare a relevant adaptation strategy. While participatory scenario approaches are useful for unveiling the diversity of possible futures, their outputs generally take the form of narratives that may be difficult to relate to biophysical models used for simulating soil and water processes. We addressed this challenge by developing a methodology combining narrative scenarios and land-use change modelling at the catchment scale, interacting with local stakeholders who were involved throughout the research, in line with current Land System research. First, we built contrasted scenarios, each with a narrative story and quantitative assumptions for key variables. Then we drew up rules for translating narrative scenarios into spatially explicit maps based on expert groups and local knowledge, simulating the evolution of land use over time. Third, we evaluated and validated the final scenarios by conducting two workshops with scientists and local stakeholders. Finally, we assessed the impact of these scenarios on agricultural production and erosion control. This approach was implemented in the Tleta basin (Morocco), a 180 km2 rural watershed, 10 km from Tangiers and heavily affected by water erosion. As a result, we propose three contrasted spatially explicit land-use change scenarios by 2040. Our work highlights the interest of combining narrative storylines and land-use modelling when developing spatially explicit scenarios at the catchment scale, incorporating the local knowledge of stakeholders. The combination of Land System and ecosystem frameworks contributes to integrating the soil erosion issue in a more global perspective, and lays the foundation for building sustainable strategies for Mediterranean catchments affected by soil erosion. Mediterranean soil resources are heavily affected by water erosion. There is a need for anticipating the potential impact of land-use change at the catchment scale, considering a range of contrasted possible changes, in order to prepare a relevant adaptation strategy. While participatory scenario approaches are useful for unveiling the diversity of possible futures, their outputs generally take the form of narratives that may be difficult to relate to biophysical models used for simulating soil and water processes. We addressed this challenge by developing a methodology combining narrative scenarios and land-use change modelling at the catchment scale, interacting with local stakeholders who were involved throughout the research, in line with current Land System research. First, we built contrasted scenarios, each with a narrative story and quantitative assumptions for key variables. Then we drew up rules for translating narrative scenarios into spatially explicit maps based on expert groups and local knowledge, simulating the evolution of land use over time. Third, we evaluated and validated the final scenarios by conducting two workshops with scientists and local stakeholders. Finally, we assessed the impact of these scenarios on agricultural production and erosion control. This approach was implemented in the Tleta basin (Morocco), a 180 km2 rural watershed, 10 km from Tangiers and heavily affected by water erosion. As a result, we propose three contrasted spatially explicit land-use change scenarios by 2040. Our work highlights the interest of combining narrative storylines and land-use modelling when developing spatially explicit scenarios at the catchment scale, incorporating the local knowledge of stakeholders. The combination of Land System and ecosystem frameworks contributes to integrating the soil erosion issue in a more global perspective, and lays the foundation for building sustainable strategies for Mediterranean catchments affected by soil erosion. Participation Elsevier Soil erosion Elsevier Morocco Elsevier Narrative scenarios Elsevier LUCC modelling Elsevier Land system Elsevier Vinatier, F. oth Sabir, M. oth Guillot, F. oth Rinaudo, J.D. oth Enthalten in Elsevier Science Son, Yang-Ju ELSEVIER Land use policy 2021 the international journal covering all aspects of land use Amsterdam [u.a.] (DE-627)ELV006296785 volume:105 year:2021 pages:0 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105406 Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ELV SYSFLAG_U SSG-OLC-PHA AR 105 2021 0 |
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Combining narrative scenarios, local knowledge and land-use change modelling for integrating soil erosion in a global perspective |
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Mediterranean soil resources are heavily affected by water erosion. There is a need for anticipating the potential impact of land-use change at the catchment scale, considering a range of contrasted possible changes, in order to prepare a relevant adaptation strategy. While participatory scenario approaches are useful for unveiling the diversity of possible futures, their outputs generally take the form of narratives that may be difficult to relate to biophysical models used for simulating soil and water processes. We addressed this challenge by developing a methodology combining narrative scenarios and land-use change modelling at the catchment scale, interacting with local stakeholders who were involved throughout the research, in line with current Land System research. First, we built contrasted scenarios, each with a narrative story and quantitative assumptions for key variables. Then we drew up rules for translating narrative scenarios into spatially explicit maps based on expert groups and local knowledge, simulating the evolution of land use over time. Third, we evaluated and validated the final scenarios by conducting two workshops with scientists and local stakeholders. Finally, we assessed the impact of these scenarios on agricultural production and erosion control. This approach was implemented in the Tleta basin (Morocco), a 180 km2 rural watershed, 10 km from Tangiers and heavily affected by water erosion. As a result, we propose three contrasted spatially explicit land-use change scenarios by 2040. Our work highlights the interest of combining narrative storylines and land-use modelling when developing spatially explicit scenarios at the catchment scale, incorporating the local knowledge of stakeholders. The combination of Land System and ecosystem frameworks contributes to integrating the soil erosion issue in a more global perspective, and lays the foundation for building sustainable strategies for Mediterranean catchments affected by soil erosion. |
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Mediterranean soil resources are heavily affected by water erosion. There is a need for anticipating the potential impact of land-use change at the catchment scale, considering a range of contrasted possible changes, in order to prepare a relevant adaptation strategy. While participatory scenario approaches are useful for unveiling the diversity of possible futures, their outputs generally take the form of narratives that may be difficult to relate to biophysical models used for simulating soil and water processes. We addressed this challenge by developing a methodology combining narrative scenarios and land-use change modelling at the catchment scale, interacting with local stakeholders who were involved throughout the research, in line with current Land System research. First, we built contrasted scenarios, each with a narrative story and quantitative assumptions for key variables. Then we drew up rules for translating narrative scenarios into spatially explicit maps based on expert groups and local knowledge, simulating the evolution of land use over time. Third, we evaluated and validated the final scenarios by conducting two workshops with scientists and local stakeholders. Finally, we assessed the impact of these scenarios on agricultural production and erosion control. This approach was implemented in the Tleta basin (Morocco), a 180 km2 rural watershed, 10 km from Tangiers and heavily affected by water erosion. As a result, we propose three contrasted spatially explicit land-use change scenarios by 2040. Our work highlights the interest of combining narrative storylines and land-use modelling when developing spatially explicit scenarios at the catchment scale, incorporating the local knowledge of stakeholders. The combination of Land System and ecosystem frameworks contributes to integrating the soil erosion issue in a more global perspective, and lays the foundation for building sustainable strategies for Mediterranean catchments affected by soil erosion. |
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Mediterranean soil resources are heavily affected by water erosion. There is a need for anticipating the potential impact of land-use change at the catchment scale, considering a range of contrasted possible changes, in order to prepare a relevant adaptation strategy. While participatory scenario approaches are useful for unveiling the diversity of possible futures, their outputs generally take the form of narratives that may be difficult to relate to biophysical models used for simulating soil and water processes. We addressed this challenge by developing a methodology combining narrative scenarios and land-use change modelling at the catchment scale, interacting with local stakeholders who were involved throughout the research, in line with current Land System research. First, we built contrasted scenarios, each with a narrative story and quantitative assumptions for key variables. Then we drew up rules for translating narrative scenarios into spatially explicit maps based on expert groups and local knowledge, simulating the evolution of land use over time. Third, we evaluated and validated the final scenarios by conducting two workshops with scientists and local stakeholders. Finally, we assessed the impact of these scenarios on agricultural production and erosion control. This approach was implemented in the Tleta basin (Morocco), a 180 km2 rural watershed, 10 km from Tangiers and heavily affected by water erosion. As a result, we propose three contrasted spatially explicit land-use change scenarios by 2040. Our work highlights the interest of combining narrative storylines and land-use modelling when developing spatially explicit scenarios at the catchment scale, incorporating the local knowledge of stakeholders. The combination of Land System and ecosystem frameworks contributes to integrating the soil erosion issue in a more global perspective, and lays the foundation for building sustainable strategies for Mediterranean catchments affected by soil erosion. |
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