Expectation dispersion, uncertainty, and the reaction to news

Key macroeconomic indicator releases are closely monitored by financial markets. We examine the impact of expectation dispersion and economic uncertainty on the stock market’s reaction to these indicators. We find that the strength of the financial market response to news decreases with the precedin...
Ausführliche Beschreibung

Gespeichert in:

Autor*in:	Born, Benjamin [verfasserIn] Dovern, Jonas [verfasserIn] Enders, Zeno [verfasserIn]

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2023

Schlagwörter:	Expectation dispersion Uncertainty Macroeconomic news Stock market Event study Forecaster dispersion

Übergeordnetes Werk:	Enthalten in: European economic review - Amsterdam : Elsevier, 1969, 154
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:154

DOI / URN:	10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104440

Katalog-ID:	ELV06326305X

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allfields	10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104440 doi (DE-627)ELV06326305X (ELSEVIER)S0014-2921(23)00069-7 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng 300 330 VZ 85.00 bkl 83.00 bkl Born, Benjamin verfasserin (orcid)0000-0003-1617-8025 aut Expectation dispersion, uncertainty, and the reaction to news 2023 nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Key macroeconomic indicator releases are closely monitored by financial markets. We examine the impact of expectation dispersion and economic uncertainty on the stock market’s reaction to these indicators. We find that the strength of the financial market response to news decreases with the preceding dispersion in expectations about the indicator value. Higher uncertainty, in contrast, increases the response. We rationalize our findings in a model of imperfect information. In the model, dispersion results from a perceived weak link between macroeconomic indicators and fundamentals that reduces the informational content of indicators, while fundamental uncertainty makes their informational content more valuable. Expectation dispersion Uncertainty Macroeconomic news Stock market Event study Forecaster dispersion Dovern, Jonas verfasserin aut Enders, Zeno verfasserin aut Enthalten in European economic review Amsterdam : Elsevier, 1969 154 Online-Ressource (DE-627)253781558 (DE-600)1460589-2 (DE-576)072794283 1873-572X nnns volume:154 GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ELV SYSFLAG_U GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_101 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 85.00 Betriebswirtschaft: Allgemeines VZ 83.00 Volkswirtschaft: Allgemeines VZ AR 154
spelling	10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104440 doi (DE-627)ELV06326305X (ELSEVIER)S0014-2921(23)00069-7 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng 300 330 VZ 85.00 bkl 83.00 bkl Born, Benjamin verfasserin (orcid)0000-0003-1617-8025 aut Expectation dispersion, uncertainty, and the reaction to news 2023 nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Key macroeconomic indicator releases are closely monitored by financial markets. We examine the impact of expectation dispersion and economic uncertainty on the stock market’s reaction to these indicators. We find that the strength of the financial market response to news decreases with the preceding dispersion in expectations about the indicator value. Higher uncertainty, in contrast, increases the response. We rationalize our findings in a model of imperfect information. In the model, dispersion results from a perceived weak link between macroeconomic indicators and fundamentals that reduces the informational content of indicators, while fundamental uncertainty makes their informational content more valuable. Expectation dispersion Uncertainty Macroeconomic news Stock market Event study Forecaster dispersion Dovern, Jonas verfasserin aut Enders, Zeno verfasserin aut Enthalten in European economic review Amsterdam : Elsevier, 1969 154 Online-Ressource (DE-627)253781558 (DE-600)1460589-2 (DE-576)072794283 1873-572X nnns volume:154 GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ELV SYSFLAG_U GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_101 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 85.00 Betriebswirtschaft: Allgemeines VZ 83.00 Volkswirtschaft: Allgemeines VZ AR 154
allfields_unstemmed	10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104440 doi (DE-627)ELV06326305X (ELSEVIER)S0014-2921(23)00069-7 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng 300 330 VZ 85.00 bkl 83.00 bkl Born, Benjamin verfasserin (orcid)0000-0003-1617-8025 aut Expectation dispersion, uncertainty, and the reaction to news 2023 nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Key macroeconomic indicator releases are closely monitored by financial markets. We examine the impact of expectation dispersion and economic uncertainty on the stock market’s reaction to these indicators. We find that the strength of the financial market response to news decreases with the preceding dispersion in expectations about the indicator value. Higher uncertainty, in contrast, increases the response. We rationalize our findings in a model of imperfect information. In the model, dispersion results from a perceived weak link between macroeconomic indicators and fundamentals that reduces the informational content of indicators, while fundamental uncertainty makes their informational content more valuable. Expectation dispersion Uncertainty Macroeconomic news Stock market Event study Forecaster dispersion Dovern, Jonas verfasserin aut Enders, Zeno verfasserin aut Enthalten in European economic review Amsterdam : Elsevier, 1969 154 Online-Ressource (DE-627)253781558 (DE-600)1460589-2 (DE-576)072794283 1873-572X nnns volume:154 GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ELV SYSFLAG_U GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_101 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 85.00 Betriebswirtschaft: Allgemeines VZ 83.00 Volkswirtschaft: Allgemeines VZ AR 154
allfieldsGer	10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104440 doi (DE-627)ELV06326305X (ELSEVIER)S0014-2921(23)00069-7 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng 300 330 VZ 85.00 bkl 83.00 bkl Born, Benjamin verfasserin (orcid)0000-0003-1617-8025 aut Expectation dispersion, uncertainty, and the reaction to news 2023 nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Key macroeconomic indicator releases are closely monitored by financial markets. We examine the impact of expectation dispersion and economic uncertainty on the stock market’s reaction to these indicators. We find that the strength of the financial market response to news decreases with the preceding dispersion in expectations about the indicator value. Higher uncertainty, in contrast, increases the response. We rationalize our findings in a model of imperfect information. In the model, dispersion results from a perceived weak link between macroeconomic indicators and fundamentals that reduces the informational content of indicators, while fundamental uncertainty makes their informational content more valuable. Expectation dispersion Uncertainty Macroeconomic news Stock market Event study Forecaster dispersion Dovern, Jonas verfasserin aut Enders, Zeno verfasserin aut Enthalten in European economic review Amsterdam : Elsevier, 1969 154 Online-Ressource (DE-627)253781558 (DE-600)1460589-2 (DE-576)072794283 1873-572X nnns volume:154 GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ELV SYSFLAG_U GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_101 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 85.00 Betriebswirtschaft: Allgemeines VZ 83.00 Volkswirtschaft: Allgemeines VZ AR 154
allfieldsSound	10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104440 doi (DE-627)ELV06326305X (ELSEVIER)S0014-2921(23)00069-7 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng 300 330 VZ 85.00 bkl 83.00 bkl Born, Benjamin verfasserin (orcid)0000-0003-1617-8025 aut Expectation dispersion, uncertainty, and the reaction to news 2023 nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Key macroeconomic indicator releases are closely monitored by financial markets. We examine the impact of expectation dispersion and economic uncertainty on the stock market’s reaction to these indicators. We find that the strength of the financial market response to news decreases with the preceding dispersion in expectations about the indicator value. Higher uncertainty, in contrast, increases the response. We rationalize our findings in a model of imperfect information. In the model, dispersion results from a perceived weak link between macroeconomic indicators and fundamentals that reduces the informational content of indicators, while fundamental uncertainty makes their informational content more valuable. Expectation dispersion Uncertainty Macroeconomic news Stock market Event study Forecaster dispersion Dovern, Jonas verfasserin aut Enders, Zeno verfasserin aut Enthalten in European economic review Amsterdam : Elsevier, 1969 154 Online-Ressource (DE-627)253781558 (DE-600)1460589-2 (DE-576)072794283 1873-572X nnns volume:154 GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ELV SYSFLAG_U GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_101 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 85.00 Betriebswirtschaft: Allgemeines VZ 83.00 Volkswirtschaft: Allgemeines VZ AR 154
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author	Born, Benjamin
spellingShingle	Born, Benjamin ddc 300 bkl 85.00 bkl 83.00 misc Expectation dispersion misc Uncertainty misc Macroeconomic news misc Stock market misc Event study misc Forecaster dispersion Expectation dispersion, uncertainty, and the reaction to news
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topic_title	300 330 VZ 85.00 bkl 83.00 bkl Expectation dispersion, uncertainty, and the reaction to news Expectation dispersion Uncertainty Macroeconomic news Stock market Event study Forecaster dispersion
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title	Expectation dispersion, uncertainty, and the reaction to news
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title_full	Expectation dispersion, uncertainty, and the reaction to news
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title_sort	expectation dispersion, uncertainty, and the reaction to news
title_auth	Expectation dispersion, uncertainty, and the reaction to news
abstract	Key macroeconomic indicator releases are closely monitored by financial markets. We examine the impact of expectation dispersion and economic uncertainty on the stock market’s reaction to these indicators. We find that the strength of the financial market response to news decreases with the preceding dispersion in expectations about the indicator value. Higher uncertainty, in contrast, increases the response. We rationalize our findings in a model of imperfect information. In the model, dispersion results from a perceived weak link between macroeconomic indicators and fundamentals that reduces the informational content of indicators, while fundamental uncertainty makes their informational content more valuable.
abstractGer	Key macroeconomic indicator releases are closely monitored by financial markets. We examine the impact of expectation dispersion and economic uncertainty on the stock market’s reaction to these indicators. We find that the strength of the financial market response to news decreases with the preceding dispersion in expectations about the indicator value. Higher uncertainty, in contrast, increases the response. We rationalize our findings in a model of imperfect information. In the model, dispersion results from a perceived weak link between macroeconomic indicators and fundamentals that reduces the informational content of indicators, while fundamental uncertainty makes their informational content more valuable.
abstract_unstemmed	Key macroeconomic indicator releases are closely monitored by financial markets. We examine the impact of expectation dispersion and economic uncertainty on the stock market’s reaction to these indicators. We find that the strength of the financial market response to news decreases with the preceding dispersion in expectations about the indicator value. Higher uncertainty, in contrast, increases the response. We rationalize our findings in a model of imperfect information. In the model, dispersion results from a perceived weak link between macroeconomic indicators and fundamentals that reduces the informational content of indicators, while fundamental uncertainty makes their informational content more valuable.
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title_short	Expectation dispersion, uncertainty, and the reaction to news
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doi_str	10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104440
up_date	2024-07-06T19:32:22.090Z
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