Relationships between stock returns and real earnings yields over the last 150 years

This research finds ex-ante real earnings yields on the S&P Composite Index of equities to be significantly related to their subsequent annual returns over the last 150 years. The real earnings yield forecast is computed by adding a market-based prediction of long-term future inflation to the ra...
Ausführliche Beschreibung

Gespeichert in:

Autor*in:	Murphy, Austin [verfasserIn] AlSalman, Zeina [verfasserIn]

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2023

Schlagwörter:	Expected stock market return Real earnings yield Inflation Forecasting equity returns

Übergeordnetes Werk:	Enthalten in: Finance research letters - New York : Elsevier Science, 2004, 57
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:57

DOI / URN:	10.1016/j.frl.2023.104243

Katalog-ID:	ELV065358686

Internformat


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912			\|a GBV_ILN_4035
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allfields	10.1016/j.frl.2023.104243 doi (DE-627)ELV065358686 (ELSEVIER)S1544-6123(23)00615-3 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng 330 VZ Murphy, Austin verfasserin aut Relationships between stock returns and real earnings yields over the last 150 years 2023 nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier This research finds ex-ante real earnings yields on the S&P Composite Index of equities to be significantly related to their subsequent annual returns over the last 150 years. The real earnings yield forecast is computed by adding a market-based prediction of long-term future inflation to the ratio between the highest past earnings on the S&P Composite and the current level of that stock market index. Equity return deviations from this real earnings yield over the last 150 years have been positively associated with the prior decade's inflation rate but negatively related to the current inflation rate. Expected stock market return Real earnings yield Inflation Forecasting equity returns AlSalman, Zeina verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-1970-5196 aut Enthalten in Finance research letters New York : Elsevier Science, 2004 57 Online-Ressource (DE-627)387481583 (DE-600)2145766-9 (DE-576)259272752 1544-6123 nnns volume:57 GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ELV SYSFLAG_U GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 57
spelling	10.1016/j.frl.2023.104243 doi (DE-627)ELV065358686 (ELSEVIER)S1544-6123(23)00615-3 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng 330 VZ Murphy, Austin verfasserin aut Relationships between stock returns and real earnings yields over the last 150 years 2023 nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier This research finds ex-ante real earnings yields on the S&P Composite Index of equities to be significantly related to their subsequent annual returns over the last 150 years. The real earnings yield forecast is computed by adding a market-based prediction of long-term future inflation to the ratio between the highest past earnings on the S&P Composite and the current level of that stock market index. Equity return deviations from this real earnings yield over the last 150 years have been positively associated with the prior decade's inflation rate but negatively related to the current inflation rate. Expected stock market return Real earnings yield Inflation Forecasting equity returns AlSalman, Zeina verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-1970-5196 aut Enthalten in Finance research letters New York : Elsevier Science, 2004 57 Online-Ressource (DE-627)387481583 (DE-600)2145766-9 (DE-576)259272752 1544-6123 nnns volume:57 GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ELV SYSFLAG_U GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 57
allfields_unstemmed	10.1016/j.frl.2023.104243 doi (DE-627)ELV065358686 (ELSEVIER)S1544-6123(23)00615-3 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng 330 VZ Murphy, Austin verfasserin aut Relationships between stock returns and real earnings yields over the last 150 years 2023 nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier This research finds ex-ante real earnings yields on the S&P Composite Index of equities to be significantly related to their subsequent annual returns over the last 150 years. The real earnings yield forecast is computed by adding a market-based prediction of long-term future inflation to the ratio between the highest past earnings on the S&P Composite and the current level of that stock market index. Equity return deviations from this real earnings yield over the last 150 years have been positively associated with the prior decade's inflation rate but negatively related to the current inflation rate. Expected stock market return Real earnings yield Inflation Forecasting equity returns AlSalman, Zeina verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-1970-5196 aut Enthalten in Finance research letters New York : Elsevier Science, 2004 57 Online-Ressource (DE-627)387481583 (DE-600)2145766-9 (DE-576)259272752 1544-6123 nnns volume:57 GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ELV SYSFLAG_U GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 57
allfieldsGer	10.1016/j.frl.2023.104243 doi (DE-627)ELV065358686 (ELSEVIER)S1544-6123(23)00615-3 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng 330 VZ Murphy, Austin verfasserin aut Relationships between stock returns and real earnings yields over the last 150 years 2023 nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier This research finds ex-ante real earnings yields on the S&P Composite Index of equities to be significantly related to their subsequent annual returns over the last 150 years. The real earnings yield forecast is computed by adding a market-based prediction of long-term future inflation to the ratio between the highest past earnings on the S&P Composite and the current level of that stock market index. Equity return deviations from this real earnings yield over the last 150 years have been positively associated with the prior decade's inflation rate but negatively related to the current inflation rate. Expected stock market return Real earnings yield Inflation Forecasting equity returns AlSalman, Zeina verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-1970-5196 aut Enthalten in Finance research letters New York : Elsevier Science, 2004 57 Online-Ressource (DE-627)387481583 (DE-600)2145766-9 (DE-576)259272752 1544-6123 nnns volume:57 GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ELV SYSFLAG_U GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 57
allfieldsSound	10.1016/j.frl.2023.104243 doi (DE-627)ELV065358686 (ELSEVIER)S1544-6123(23)00615-3 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng 330 VZ Murphy, Austin verfasserin aut Relationships between stock returns and real earnings yields over the last 150 years 2023 nicht spezifiziert zzz rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier This research finds ex-ante real earnings yields on the S&P Composite Index of equities to be significantly related to their subsequent annual returns over the last 150 years. The real earnings yield forecast is computed by adding a market-based prediction of long-term future inflation to the ratio between the highest past earnings on the S&P Composite and the current level of that stock market index. Equity return deviations from this real earnings yield over the last 150 years have been positively associated with the prior decade's inflation rate but negatively related to the current inflation rate. Expected stock market return Real earnings yield Inflation Forecasting equity returns AlSalman, Zeina verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-1970-5196 aut Enthalten in Finance research letters New York : Elsevier Science, 2004 57 Online-Ressource (DE-627)387481583 (DE-600)2145766-9 (DE-576)259272752 1544-6123 nnns volume:57 GBV_USEFLAG_U GBV_ELV SYSFLAG_U GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 57
language	English
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sourceStr	Enthalten in Finance research letters 57 volume:57
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author	Murphy, Austin
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topic_title	330 VZ Relationships between stock returns and real earnings yields over the last 150 years Expected stock market return Real earnings yield Inflation Forecasting equity returns
topic	ddc 330 misc Expected stock market return misc Real earnings yield misc Inflation misc Forecasting equity returns
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title	Relationships between stock returns and real earnings yields over the last 150 years
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title_full	Relationships between stock returns and real earnings yields over the last 150 years
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title_sort	relationships between stock returns and real earnings yields over the last 150 years
title_auth	Relationships between stock returns and real earnings yields over the last 150 years
abstract	This research finds ex-ante real earnings yields on the S&P Composite Index of equities to be significantly related to their subsequent annual returns over the last 150 years. The real earnings yield forecast is computed by adding a market-based prediction of long-term future inflation to the ratio between the highest past earnings on the S&P Composite and the current level of that stock market index. Equity return deviations from this real earnings yield over the last 150 years have been positively associated with the prior decade's inflation rate but negatively related to the current inflation rate.
abstractGer	This research finds ex-ante real earnings yields on the S&P Composite Index of equities to be significantly related to their subsequent annual returns over the last 150 years. The real earnings yield forecast is computed by adding a market-based prediction of long-term future inflation to the ratio between the highest past earnings on the S&P Composite and the current level of that stock market index. Equity return deviations from this real earnings yield over the last 150 years have been positively associated with the prior decade's inflation rate but negatively related to the current inflation rate.
abstract_unstemmed	This research finds ex-ante real earnings yields on the S&P Composite Index of equities to be significantly related to their subsequent annual returns over the last 150 years. The real earnings yield forecast is computed by adding a market-based prediction of long-term future inflation to the ratio between the highest past earnings on the S&P Composite and the current level of that stock market index. Equity return deviations from this real earnings yield over the last 150 years have been positively associated with the prior decade's inflation rate but negatively related to the current inflation rate.
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title_short	Relationships between stock returns and real earnings yields over the last 150 years
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doi_str	10.1016/j.frl.2023.104243
up_date	2024-07-06T22:45:22.326Z
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Relationships between stock returns and real earnings yields over the last 150 years

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