Calibration, sharpness and the weighting of experts in a linear opinion pool
Linear opinion pools are the most common form of aggregating the probabilistic judgments of multiple experts. Here, the performance of such an aggregation is examined in terms of the calibration and sharpness of the component judgments. The performance is measured through the average quadratic score...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Autor*in: |
Hora, Stephen C [verfasserIn] |
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Format: |
Artikel |
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Sprache: |
Englisch |
Erschienen: |
2015 |
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Rechteinformationen: |
Nutzungsrecht: © Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015 |
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Schlagwörter: |
Operations Research/Decision Theory |
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Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Annals of operations research - Dordrecht, The Netherlands : Springer Nature B.V., 1984, 229(2015), 1, Seite 429-450 |
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Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:229 ; year:2015 ; number:1 ; pages:429-450 |
Links: |
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DOI / URN: |
10.1007/s10479-015-1846-0 |
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OLC1956854932 |
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10.1007/s10479-015-1846-0 doi PQ20160617 (DE-627)OLC1956854932 (DE-599)GBVOLC1956854932 (PRQ)c2209-dab46e9337a3b39b93b5bcd33c74328b412a18242271c08936b51d3861cc880b0 (KEY)0133795520150000229000100429calibrationsharpnessandtheweightingofexpertsinalin DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 004 DNB Hora, Stephen C verfasserin aut Calibration, sharpness and the weighting of experts in a linear opinion pool 2015 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier Linear opinion pools are the most common form of aggregating the probabilistic judgments of multiple experts. Here, the performance of such an aggregation is examined in terms of the calibration and sharpness of the component judgments. The performance is measured through the average quadratic score of the aggregate. Trade-offs between calibration and sharpness are examined and an expression for the optimal weighting of two dependent experts in a linear combination is given. Circumstances where one expert would be disqualified are investigated. Optimal weights for the multiple, dependent experts are found through a concave quadratic program. Nutzungsrecht: © Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015 Operations Research/Decision Theory Quadratic score Subject matter expert Probabilistic expert judgment Economics / Management Science Calibration Combinatorics Scoring rules Subjective probability Theory of Computation Brier score Experts Operations research Studies Kardeş, Erim oth Enthalten in Annals of operations research Dordrecht, The Netherlands : Springer Nature B.V., 1984 229(2015), 1, Seite 429-450 (DE-627)12964370X (DE-600)252629-3 (DE-576)018141862 0254-5330 volume:229 year:2015 number:1 pages:429-450 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10479-015-1846-0 Volltext http://search.proquest.com/docview/1680388122 GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-WIW SSG-OLC-MAT AR 229 2015 1 429-450 |
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Calibration, sharpness and the weighting of experts in a linear opinion pool |
abstract |
Linear opinion pools are the most common form of aggregating the probabilistic judgments of multiple experts. Here, the performance of such an aggregation is examined in terms of the calibration and sharpness of the component judgments. The performance is measured through the average quadratic score of the aggregate. Trade-offs between calibration and sharpness are examined and an expression for the optimal weighting of two dependent experts in a linear combination is given. Circumstances where one expert would be disqualified are investigated. Optimal weights for the multiple, dependent experts are found through a concave quadratic program. |
abstractGer |
Linear opinion pools are the most common form of aggregating the probabilistic judgments of multiple experts. Here, the performance of such an aggregation is examined in terms of the calibration and sharpness of the component judgments. The performance is measured through the average quadratic score of the aggregate. Trade-offs between calibration and sharpness are examined and an expression for the optimal weighting of two dependent experts in a linear combination is given. Circumstances where one expert would be disqualified are investigated. Optimal weights for the multiple, dependent experts are found through a concave quadratic program. |
abstract_unstemmed |
Linear opinion pools are the most common form of aggregating the probabilistic judgments of multiple experts. Here, the performance of such an aggregation is examined in terms of the calibration and sharpness of the component judgments. The performance is measured through the average quadratic score of the aggregate. Trade-offs between calibration and sharpness are examined and an expression for the optimal weighting of two dependent experts in a linear combination is given. Circumstances where one expert would be disqualified are investigated. Optimal weights for the multiple, dependent experts are found through a concave quadratic program. |
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title_short |
Calibration, sharpness and the weighting of experts in a linear opinion pool |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10479-015-1846-0 http://search.proquest.com/docview/1680388122 |
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Kardeş, Erim |
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Kardeş, Erim |
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doi_str |
10.1007/s10479-015-1846-0 |
up_date |
2024-07-03T22:13:53.358Z |
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